The Mock Off Season Thread

[d_money]

My preference would be to swing for Stroman instead of Archer, although not sure if the BJ’s are ready to deal.

[Tryptamine]

I'm not going to include Otani in this mock, there's just not anyone with any real information as far as where he wants to go. Secondly, I am going to assume that the Cubs are truly going to make an effort to sign Harper in 2019.

 

Sign Rene Rivera 1/2.5M

Sign Carlos Gomez 2/22M

Sign Alex Cobb 4/70M

Sign Clay Buchholz 1/5M

Sign Wily Peralta 1/5M

Sign Addison Reed 3/27M

 

Trade Ian Happ and Victor Caratini to TOR for Roberto Osuna. TOR needs a 2B replacement for the oft hurt Devon Travis and they're going to need a back up at catcher who can eventually take over when Russell Martin's contract is up in 2019.

 

C:Contreras

1B: Rizzo

2B: Baez

SS: Russell

3B: Bryant

RF: Heyward

CF: Almora

LF: Schwarber

 

Bench: Rivera,Zobrist,Gomez,TLS,Hannemann

 

SP: Lester,Hendricks,Quintana,Cobb,(Buccholz/Peralta)

 

RP:Osuna,Reed,Strop,Edwards,Montgomery,Wilson,Maples

 

The offense remains pretty much the same, maybe a slight upgrade in going Jon Jay to C.Gomez. SP might be slightly downgraded, but I think between Buccholz and peralta one of them can figure it out enough to give us a bunch of 4ERA inning which is all I'm looking for. I think the bullpen is upgraded with Osuna and Reed, not to mention it solves the closer problem for a while as Osuna is under control for 3 more years. 2019 is where they find their long term 5th pitcher and chase after Harper.

[toonsterwu]

Tryptamine ... it's an interesting mock. My question would be ... what would the Blue Jays do about their bullpen? I guess slide Dominic Leone in there? Still, with multiple years of control left on Osuna ... if they deal him, it would seem like an attempt to rebuild, and it makes me wonder if Happ would make that much sense for them as it would seem they would be more looking down the line to when Vlad Jr. was ready (leaving aside the unknown of whether or not they like Happ at 2nd). They could probably give Rob Refsnyder a long look if they were rebuilding. I also wonder if Osuna's value wouldn't skyrocket in this environment. I don't think he's at Craig Kimbrel values yet (at least, not Braves/Padres trade value ... ). I could see him at Ken Giles value. If they aren't rebuilding, it almost seems to make more sense for them to keep Osuna and go to FA to search for a 2nd baseman, where there are some options, or to trade for a 2nd baseman. Dunno, just a thought, and an interesting trade idea.

[toonsterwu]

Keep thinking there ought to be some fit with the Twins, as they could perhaps use a MI. It might behoove them to sell Dozier this off-season, and it's not like Jorge Polanco is definitively going to block anyone if they are more talented. That said, I can't figure out a good trade - I mean, I could see the Cubs going after say, a Ryan Pressly for the pen (the FO drafted him for Boston back in the day), but they aren't trading Berrios, none of their other starters intrigue, and I'm not sure Gonsalves is a guy they'd move, nor do I think the Cubs should go into the year with someone like Gonsalvez hard-penciled for a rotation spot.

 

If the Cubs move Javier Baez in some sort of deal (I still think he's more likely to be dealt than Addison, btw the two), I'd like to make a run at Jason Kipnis. There's 30.5 left (if the 2020 option is picked up, then it's 44.5. FA money basically, for a quality starter, but if he's healthy, he should be one. It's plausible the Indians may move him due to contract, needing to try extensions for Bauer/Lindor, blocked in CF by Zimmer, and potentially blocked at 3rd if Mejia works out. Furthermore, they may simply want to restock the system (granted, with Nolan Jones in the pipeline, they may have their next elite prospect after Mejia/McKenzie). Kipnis would offer a better top of the order hitter and likely a still solid defender at 2nd, and as he ages, he could perhaps slide into that Zobrist role if someone better comes along.

 

I still wonder if the Phillies consider shopping Cesar Hernandez, with Scott Kingery close to ready and Hernandez likely near peak value. He probably would be too old for their next window. If the Cubs moved Baez (or Russell), I'd like Hernandez as an option as well, but it would be costly.

 

Keep thinking someone has to take a chance on Jurickson Profar at some point, as it looks like Jon Daniels isn't going to, but the most realistic trade I can figure that could involve us would be the Dodgers, and I'm not sure I buy that. Maybe something with the Rays. Some team has to take a chance on Profar ... right? All that said, maybe Jon Daniels wises up and gives Profar another long look, considering Rougned Odor was a catastrophe this year.

[toonsterwu]

Osuna’s good but both Giles and espeeeeeeecially Kimberly blow him out of the water as far as track record. I think he’s attainable, but I’m not trading Happ for him. He IS my favorite Blue Jay to pair with Stroman, pretty much the only way I would want to deal with them.

 

Kimbrel did, at the point of the Braves/Padres deal (my point on the 2nd deal was that with multiple years of control, the value of Osuna might not be that far off from the Padres/Red Sox deal, which, off the top, was one top prospect (Margot), 1 good prospect (shortstop, can't think of the name right now, has struggled in the Padres system I think, Javier Guerra ... odd I thought he was more intriguing than his fangraphs page looks right now, and two other guys, Logan Allen, who still looks intriguing, and Carlos Asauje), but I'd question that Giles blew him out of the water at the point he was traded. Keep in mind, at the point Giles was traded by the Phillies, he had just started assuming the closers role, and had 2 good years in the pen - okay, two excellent years in the pen. He had a scattershot history in regards to command coming up the ladder. Osuna's had 3 strong years as a closer, is still 3 years younger than Giles when he was traded, and is arguably coming off his best season of work as a closer, in terms of peripherals. The stuff's not Giles-level big, but it's plenty big enough.

 

No comparison is great, and all trades exist within their own environments, but IMO (and certainly it's reasonable to disagree), Osuna's track record now holds enough intrigue that I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest that his trade value might net something similar to what Giles did for the Phillies). (Off the top ... that was ... Velasquez, Appel, Eshelman ... and Oberholtzer?) . Actually, in some respects, it seems similar to the Red Sox package for Kimbrel, except the top prospect was an arm, instead of a positional asset.

Edited November 6, 2017 by toonsterwu

[JeffH]

...Rougned Odor was a catastrophe this year.

 

Odor hit 30 home runs with a slugging percentage below .400. That's got to be hard to do. I wonder how many times that's been done in the history of MLB.

[Tim]

Time for another mock as I try to pass time before the weekend.

 

This time, instead of the approach I took last time, I'm going to go decidedly more low-key. This article is going to be the basis for the biggest move.

 

Cubs trade Schwarber, Almora, Albertos and De La Cruz to Baltimore for Gausman and Britton

 

The article linked above shows why I think Gausman is (finally) ready to break out in a big way. Britton is a big gamble, but it is the exact kind of gamble they just took this past offseason to fill the closer role.

 

Cubs sign FA pitchers Cobb, McGee, Neshek

Cubs DFA Rondon, Grimm

 

That fills out the pitching staff:

 

Quintana, Lester, Hendricks, Cobb, Gausman

Britton, McGee, Strop, Edwards, Neshek, Wilson, Monty, minors guys

 

Now that I've severely depleted the OF, the offense has some gaps that need filling

 

Cubs sign FA OF Cain, Nunez; C Rivera

 

Contreras, Rizzo, Baez/Zobrist, Bryant, Russell, Happ, Cain, Heyward

Rivera, Baez/Zobrist, La Stella, Nunez

 

I don't love it, but I could live with that offseason.

[toonsterwu]

From a Cubs perspective, I could live with that. Gausman struggled with McDowell early on.

 

The trade just doesn't make much sense for the Orioles. They already need 3 starters - I don't think they go create a 4th hole. They already have three 1st/DH types that forces them to throw one into LF. They already have OF spots covered - they aren't moving Adam Jones, and Austin Hays probably will get a shot at a spot.

[Tim]

From a Cubs perspective, I could live with that. Gausman struggled with McDowell early on.

 

The trade just doesn't make much sense for the Orioles. They already need 3 starters - I don't think they go create a 4th hole. They already have three 1st/DH types that forces them to throw one into LF. They already have OF spots covered - they aren't moving Adam Jones, and Austin Hays probably will get a shot at a spot.

The Orioles were 25th in hitting fWAR and 26th in pitching fWAR last year. They need help everywhere. They really should be looking to trade Machado and going full rebuild.

 

Schoop and Machado are clear assets. Beef was their third best position player last year and he's an FA. Here's a rundown of their other guys...

 

Adam Jones is in clear decline and will be in the last year of his contract. They should really trade him for whatever they can get.

Trey Mancini is someone I honestly overlooked, but needs to be in the mix at 1B/DH

Chris Davis...who knows if he'll hit 50 HR or bomb out of the league. It seems to vary each year. But count him at 1B/DH, too.

Seth Smith is an FA

Joey Rickard sucks hard

 

Who else is there?

 

I know Baltimore doesn't ever face the reality of their situation, but they're awful. They have no chance this year in that division. Gausman has perpetually disappointed them and Britton may be broken. They really should jump on a solid offer and then do what they can about getting maximum value for Machado.

[toonsterwu]

I don't disagree that Baltimore should rebuild. There's such a thin line that they are crawling about in the hopes of being competitive (idea being strong pen, power hitters (with Schoop blossoming), and then hope you get some innings eaters to go with Bundy/Gausman). I don't think they will, though, and Duquette tends to act slowly.

 

You are forgetting about Mark Trumbo's bad contract. I'm not saying Schwarber isn't better. That said, with 3 1st/DH types, I've got a tough time seeing them add a 4th.

 

I could see them go after someone like Almora, with the intent of sliding Adam Jones to a corner OF spot.

 

The problem is, they still have to field a team, and the upper levels of the minors probably isn't going to provide 3 ... below average starters. Making a 4th hole would seem like a tough think to do unless they got some form of close to ready pitching in return.

[toonsterwu]

So, I was thinking about Giancarlo Stanton and how it seems like only a couple teams might be willing to take on the entire contract, and of them, the Giants seem the most desperate. They have such a thin system at the moment that it seems hard to construct a deal where even a modicum of decent talent goes back (that isn't loaded with OF's ... they do have some decent OF options). So, assuming they are desperate, just toying around with random thoughts ...

 

Giants get: Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Conley

Giants trade: Heliot Ramos, Chris Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Jeff Samardzija, Austin Slater, Sam Coonrod

 

Cub get: Jeff Samardzija, Austin Slater, Sam Coonrod

Cubs trade: Ian Happ, Duane Underwood

 

Marlins get: Ian Happ, Heliot Ramos, Chris Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Duane Underwood

Marlins trade: Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Conley

 

Just toying around with an idea. Let's say Giants are desperate for Stanton, but to make it work, they have to clear some money. Samardzija is likely more movable than Melancon, and more likely to net them a quality asset. Now, if they aren't desperate to move money, and can really fit Stanton in no problems asked ... then this mock trade is shot to bits and pieces. They get Conley to throw into the back end of the rotation, while probably needing to go out on the market and sign some low cost options, or give Tyler Beede a look. Now ... that seems like a lot for the Giants to give up to get Stanton and his contract. So in some respects, it might not make sense.

 

Cubs get Samardzija, and in response to those that feel 3 years of Samardzija isn't worth 5 years of Happ, we get some spare pieces to plug in. I like those two (Slater is a nice utility option who dabbled at 2nd/SS before and can handle all three OF spots, while Coonrod looked far more intriguing two years ago as a power arm, and then they wanted him to become a sinker/slider guy. Still, a mid-90's 4 seamer, a low 90's 2 seamer, and a good slider that flashes - there's a fit somewhere. It's either end of the rotation (changeup is pedestrian) or a late inning pen arm type). Giving up a spare piece to go with Happ is fine if it makes people happy, and Underwood has about run his course here, and it clears a 40 man spot. Cubs get to focus on pen/5th starter/depth.

 

Marlins clear Stanton's salary. They get some high upside far away in Heliot Ramos, and Ian Happ can step in now to make a nice OF trio with Ozuna/Yelich. Chris Shaw could potentially slide in for Justin Bour now, and allow them to shop Bour. Suarez gives them a high floor starting arm (looks like he should develop into a decent end of the rotation option) while Underwood is a shot in the dark.

 

There's probably a lot of things that could be picked apart about this mock trade. Just a random thought during lunch.

Edited November 10, 2017 by toonsterwu

[David]

but who gets heyward

[toonsterwu]

but who gets heyward

 

The I-Cubs!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How does trading Happ for Samardzija help, Samardzija is neither inexpensive nor high ceiling and you're using your best trade chip to get him? Just sign Cobb.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

B2B approves.

 

\:D/

[toonsterwu]

How does trading Happ for Samardzija help, Samardzija is neither inexpensive nor high ceiling and you're using your best trade chip to get him? Just sign Cobb.

 

Did we have this discussion before? Or was it someone else?

 

I'm not for or against trading Samardzija. That said,

 

a) I tend to think the trade values for quality pitching is under-valued in some mocks. It's possible this winter is different from different winters, so admittedly, have to wait and see. Still ... last year, a pedestrian Dan Straily cost the Marlins a very promising arm that had rapidly developed, akin to Adbert Alzolay.

 

b) Samardzija was quite solid last year, ERA aside. He did taper off in the 2nd half, but he was quite dominant for a stretch, ERA aside. There was a stretch, mostly the first half, where he looked like a top 10 pitcher in baseball before tapering off a bit as the season wore on. As someone noted, the cost of innings-eating arms (like John Lackey) is costly. The cost of an innings eating arm that has shown consistency and is solid is going to cost more than one thinks.

 

c) I think, within this window, the Cubs are going to make moves that they otherwise wouldn't make.

 

d) So, the main point seems to be ... if we can save prospects and sign a FA, that's better. I don't disagree. I've said that before. That said, there seems to be an automatic assumption that Cobb to the Cubs is a done deal. Maybe it is, but there are a ton of teams going after him, and this kid was from the Northeast, and it's possible 1, if not 2, clubs may be looking for SP arms (wouldn't exactly rule out Dombrowski moving a lot of stuff around, although Yankees will clearly be looking for another arm). That leaves aside Cobb is likely looking for 4 years, if not more, and if he signs early, could be for far more than people are anticipating. Besides Cobb, I'm not all that enamored with the rest. Lance Lynn? Worries me that he might be falling fast. Don't see the Cubs spending big on Darvish, but if they go that route, I'm fine with it.

[davell]

Shark has positive value, but not a lot. There's no way we'd trade a chip like Happ for him. If WE traded for Shark? I'd guess it involved a guy like Ademan, with Zagunis, and maybe EJM, since the Giants wanted him bad, at one point.

 

At any rate, while he's got a bit of value, that's what it is. A bit. His contract makes it that way.

 

Teams can just sign Cobb or Lynn for money. Or take a slightly lesser pitcher and save a bunch of cash in the process.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let me distill my point a bit further since I was a bit trite earlier.

 

I like Shark, think he's a useful starter and even a guy you don't mind in your playoff rotation. I don't think he's going to be better than 3rd on the depth chart, and if that happens it's more likely others failed than he succeeded.

 

With that in mind, this deal makes you choose between:

 

Samardzija

good AAA OF prospect who might be the next Happ

decent AA SP prospect

the absence of Underwood

 

and

 

Happ

18 million

 

I take the latter every time, and use that money to get a similar caliber FA starter (maybe a reliever too if the deals are right), while retaining the present version of Happ.

[toonsterwu]

Shark has positive value, but not a lot. There's no way we'd trade a chip like Happ for him. If WE traded for Shark? I'd guess it involved a guy like Ademan, with Zagunis, and maybe EJM, since the Giants wanted him bad, at one point.

 

At any rate, while he's got a bit of value, that's what it is. A bit. His contract makes it that way.

 

Teams can just sign Cobb or Lynn for money. Or take a slightly lesser pitcher and save a bunch of cash in the process.

 

I understand that argument, but I think it's ... very unlikely that Jeff Samardzija is only going to net them Ademan/Zagunis/EJM. We're talking about a very good arm. Yes, contract sucks, but MLB teams are flush with me. There are a lot of clubs that are likely to spend this winter.

 

I don't know when I became the Shark defender, but have people really looked at his season? Yes, I get the value argument, due to contract, but ... for a stretch there, he was one of the best SP's in baseball. He had a bad 2nd half, and there's some cause for concern, but I've seen people compare him to this year's John Lackey on this board, and I just don't see it.

 

This isn't to say the value argument is off-base. This is simply to say that within this environment, where multiple teams have spending money this offseason, where he only has 3 years left on his deal, where there isn't much top pitching out there, where most teams are analytically oriented (I mean, what's the most non-analytical team out there ... Royals?) ... I'm going to be utterly stunned if all Samardzija can net is a far away middle infield prospect, albeit with some promise, and two mediocre upper level types.

[toonsterwu]

Let me distill my point a bit further since I was a bit trite earlier.

 

I like Shark, think he's a useful starter and even a guy you don't mind in your playoff rotation. I don't think he's going to be better than 3rd on the depth chart, and if that happens it's more likely others failed than he succeeded.

 

With that in mind, this deal makes you choose between:

 

Samardzija

good AAA OF prospect who might be the next Happ

decent AA SP prospect

the absence of Underwood

 

and

 

Happ

18 million

 

I take the latter every time, anduse that money to get a similar caliber FA starter (maybe a reliever too if the deals are right), while retaining the present version of Happ.

 

Sure ... if that option is available. Again, I'm simply presenting an option for discussion, and again, if you can sign a guy and save the prospects, fine (although I tend to think Samardzija will be better than Cobb, but they are close enough).

 

So to make this a discussion then ... which FA SP's would you go with then? I know you've mentioned it elsewhere ... but let's say Cobb doesn't sign. I'm scared to heck (as scared as I can be I guess) of Lynn. I think that's a train wreck waiting to happen. I just don't see much else in that 2nd tier that I really am positive about. Cobb, yes.

[toonsterwu]

Shark has positive value, but not a lot. There's no way we'd trade a chip like Happ for him. If WE traded for Shark? I'd guess it involved a guy like Ademan, with Zagunis, and maybe EJM, since the Giants wanted him bad, at one point.

 

At any rate, while he's got a bit of value, that's what it is. A bit. His contract makes it that way.

 

Teams can just sign Cobb or Lynn for money. Or take a slightly lesser pitcher and save a bunch of cash in the process.

 

This FO has already made the argument/point that they'll place value in marginal improvements if they believe that could be enough of a critical bump to establish as a way to separate the team. Albeit, that was moreso in a mid-season deal, but they've gone swan dive in on this window right now.

 

As a total side note and point to reiterate, I was just throwing something out there. I've said before my preference is probably Cobb (or a trade for someone younger, like a Taijuan Walker, if possible ... dunno if I've specifically said that this winter, but that'd obviously be a preferable route).

Furthermore, I really like Austin Slater. I actually doubt the Giants move him. If they can fit in Stanton without giving Shark up, wouldn't surprise me if they get Slater in there as a top of the order hitter and just made Span their 4th OF.

 

I wouldn't exactly compare Slater to Happ. He's more ... probably a mix of Happ and La Stella.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So to make this a discussion then ... which FA SP's would you go with then? I know you've mentioned it elsewhere ... but let's say Cobb doesn't sign. I'm scared to heck (as scared as I can be I guess) of Lynn. I think that's a train wreck waiting to happen. I just don't see much else in that 2nd tier that I really am positive about. Cobb, yes.

 

Cobb is an easy one. I'd be willing to make the 5th starter more speculative(e.g. a Montgomery-esque trade, an FA like Hellickson/Vargas) if it meant they were able to get Darvish and make 1-4 in the rotation that strong. I'm open to signing Chatwood but I don't think the front office is going to be a big believer(I've outlined earlier the walks are a big deal). The specter of Otani looms a bit here too. Most importantly though, I think the trade market for Happ or Happ-headlined packages is able to get you a SP with a higher ceiling than Samardzija, a better contract situation, or both.

[toonsterwu]

So to make this a discussion then ... which FA SP's would you go with then? I know you've mentioned it elsewhere ... but let's say Cobb doesn't sign. I'm scared to heck (as scared as I can be I guess) of Lynn. I think that's a train wreck waiting to happen. I just don't see much else in that 2nd tier that I really am positive about. Cobb, yes.

 

Cobb is an easy one. I'd be willing to make the 5th starter more speculative(e.g. a Montgomery-esque trade, an FA like Hellickson/Vargas) if it meant they were able to get Darvish and make 1-4 in the rotation that strong. I'm open to signing Chatwood but I don't think the front office is going to be a big believer(I've outlined earlier the walks are a big deal). The specter of Otani looms a bit here too. Most importantly though, I think the trade market for Happ or Happ-headlined packages is able to get you a SP with a higher ceiling than Samardzija, a better contract situation, or both.

 

If the Cubs are willing to spend on Darvish or get Otani, then yes, that's the preferable route.

 

I don't really care for Chatwood. Honestly, if they are going Chatwood (and I don't expect them to), give me Wade Miley on a short and/or incentive-laden, deal.

 

So yes, I don't disagree that I would hope to net someone younger with potential (I'd argue that Samardzija is much better than people think and to say higher ceiling, the only thing would be to get someone younger as few guys clearly better than Shark now aren't going to be moved) if moving Happ, but you eventually run into the problem that ... most teams are over-protective of their young arms. Eventually, you run into very few teams that seem to make sense (a straight swap of Taijuan Walker for Ian Happ, on paper, makes sense for both sides, but all indications are that the Diamondbacks, despite their rotationd epth, won't move Walker (with the obvious caveat of if it's too stupid to pass up, Hazen probably wouldn't)). In this window, the Cubs probably aren't going to target high level prospects to fill holes, so we eventually run into the problem of who? Carlos Rodon might make some sense (depending on his medicals) and that's an org that's willing to move guys. I half thought about Blake Snell, but he had a superb 2nd half amidst reports that he was starting to learn and adjust.

 

So there is that think layer of Stroman/Archer, but those two would take far more than Happ, in all likelihood, and I'm not sure either team is ready to move either one yet.

[davell]

The guys Rogers mentioned, Archer, Stroman, Fulmer, Manaea, and Nola.....Most seem like long shots to be dealt, but I figure 1 or 2 probably move. Manaea, maybe Archer, being my guesses.

 

Then, you've got the group of guys MLBTR mentioned in the Cubs off season outlook.....

 

Danny Salazar, Collin McHugh, Matt Andriese, Jake Odorizzi, and Kendall Graveman. Again, I'd not expect more than one or two to move, but this opens up the market a bit.

 

With offense on the upswing, I'm not concerned in the least about pitching being TOO valuable. There's plenty of teams out there that'll be looking for cheap hitting.

[davell]

Here's my 2nd attempt.....

 

Trades

 

Kyle Schwarber for Danny Salazar(5.2)

 

Victor Caratini, Mike Montgomery, and Thomas Hatch for Alex Colome (5.5)

 

Mark Zagunis for Matt Wisler

 

FA Signings

 

Mike Minor 4/36

Brandon Morrow 2/20

Jon Jay 1/8

Jhoulys Chacin 2/22

Tommy Hunter 1/6

Rene Rivera 1/3

Tyson Ross 1/2

 

Lineup

 

LF Zobrist, 3B Bryant, 1B Rizzo, C Contreras, SS Russell, RF Heyward, 2B Baez, CF Almora

Bench C Rivera, 2B La Stella, IF/OF Happ, OF Jay

 

Rotation Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Chacin, Salazar

 

Pen Colome, Strop, Edwards, Wilson, Minor, Morrow, Hunter

 

Payroll of 176.5