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8/4: Dusty's Nats (Roark) @ CHAMPION 1ST PLACE CUBS (Hendricks) 1:20 CST on WGN & MLBN

Sammy Sofa
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Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

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5 baserunners and 0 runs thus far against the pitching juggernaut that is Tanner Roark.

wait until you see what they do against the guy with no arms on Sunday

 

It's gonna be Ty Cobb in reverse.

Agony and Ivy First Round Pick

Agony and Ivy

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And as far as contact management, Hendricks' GB% is higher this year than last. His average exit velocity is lower this year than last. I think his HR/FB is fluky high, though I can't say that for sure since this juiced ball era is so weird. He could just be a guy that is going to be adversely affected by it.

 

But his main problem early in the year was walking guys. And, since coming back, his two walks today are the only he's given up.

 

84 MPH pitches up in the zone are going to get hit out of the park more often than pitches at 87 mph in the same spot. That's more an effect of his command being not as good as it was last year, but yeah we don't even know what we should be looking to regress it to because of the dumb ball.

 

His SwStr% is back down to a few ticks lower than 2014 and 15 at 7.5%. His first pitch strike rate is average now, instead of well above average. His O-Contact% is way up which is weird because I'd guess guys are chasing but just not whiffing as much, which again velocity.

 

His EV might be down on average but I'd like to see the data on barrels overall. I think he's clearly giving up more barrels than last year but that's totally based off the eye test.

 

Either way, in no world is 84mph better than 87-88mph with a 90 mixed in here and there, and until that changes we shouldn't expect him to be that good and right now he's an average MLB pitcher, and even that's kind of crazy when you throw that softly.

Thrilho Draft Eligible

Thrilho

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Javy heating up against RHP. Before that HR he's at .283/.321/.491 in 56 PAs since July 1. Not much sample size but ghe consecutive good days against Greinke and a dominant Roark are good to see.
Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

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Either way, in no world is 84mph better than 87-88mph with a 90 mixed in here and there, and until that changes we shouldn't expect him to be that good and right now he's an average MLB pitcher, and even that's kind of crazy when you throw that softly.

 

He has been pitching at an above average level for months. Also, there's little evidence that suggests his 2016 88 mph is actually different than his 2017 85 mph, especially since, and I can't emphasize this enough, he's been pitching at an above average level for months.

Aaron_Kennelly South Bend Cubs

Aaron_Kennelly

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And as far as contact management, Hendricks' GB% is higher this year than last. His average exit velocity is lower this year than last. I think his HR/FB is fluky high, though I can't say that for sure since this juiced ball era is so weird. He could just be a guy that is going to be adversely affected by it.

 

But his main problem early in the year was walking guys. And, since coming back, his two walks today are the only he's given up.

 

84 MPH pitches up in the zone are going to get hit out of the park more often than pitches at 87 mph in the same spot. That's more an effect of his command being not as good as it was last year, but yeah we don't even know what we should be looking to regress it to because of the dumb ball.

 

His SwStr% is back down to a few ticks lower than 2014 and 15 at 7.5%. His first pitch strike rate is average now, instead of well above average. His O-Contact% is way up which is weird because I'd guess guys are chasing but just not whiffing as much, which again velocity.

 

His EV might be down on average but I'd like to see the data on barrels overall. I think he's clearly giving up more barrels than last year but that's totally based off the eye test.

 

Either way, in no world is 84mph better than 87-88mph with a 90 mixed in here and there, and until that changes we shouldn't expect him to be that good and right now he's an average MLB pitcher, and even that's kind of crazy when you throw that softly.

 

Batters have a lower wOBA on his sinkers under 86 than over 86 this year. I really don't think his velo matters that much. If it was, like, 83 non-stop, I might worry. But, he's getting the same type of contact.

 

And his SwStr% is up since coming back. And he's throwing a ton more strikes. The walks were a problem early on, when his command was way fucked up. But, he's been pretty great since coming back.

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