5/26: Cubs(Arrieta) @ LAD (Wood) 9:10 ABC7/MLBN

[17 Seconds]

i thought they had tons of confidence in schwarber or whatever

[OleMissCub]

I miss Scully. These were the only games all year where I would watch a different broadcast.

 

Dear god what have you done...you realize many on this forum would rather listen to the entire horsefeathers ass RHCP discography than listen to a minute of Scully?

 

OMC likes anyone who killed a dozen injuns durin' the French-Indian War

 

 

Bravo sir

[CaliforniaRaisin]

horsefeathers 'em up, Cubs.

 

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[We Got The Whole 9]

Good article in The Athletic, really sums up the lineup dilemma well

 

https://theathletic.com/63038/2017/05/26/sheehan-joe-maddon-is-optimizing-the-leadoff-spot-but-at-what-cost/

 

Less than two weeks after The Great Panic of Mid-May 2017, the Cubs moved into first place in the NL Central Thursday with a 5-1 win over the Giants. The win capped a 7-2 homestand in which the Cubs finally got a chance to take on some of the lesser pitching staffs in the National League. None of the Reds, Brewers, or Giants rank in the top half of the circuit in ERA. That helped quell concern about the offense, which scored 6.6 runs per game during the nine games in Chicago, at least three in every game and at least five on six occasions. The shift in the schedule — which had been the NL’s toughest, loaded with top-10 teams, through May 14 — is both the biggest reason why the Cubs were 18-19 10 days ago and why the offense looks better today.

 

The focus, though, is on the lineup, which Joe Maddon shuffled last week for the first time since last summer. Maddon opened 2016 with Jason Heyward in the No. 2 spot, and he mostly stuck with Heyward there into July, through the worst season of the right fielder’s career. On July 4, he dropped Heyward to sixth and elevated his best two hitters, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, to second and third, respectively, an alignment he’d toyed with on and off up to that point. The two batted 2-3 in every regular-season game in which they both started from then until last Sunday, when Maddon moved Ben Zobrist into the leadoff spot and dropped Kyle Schwarber, Bryant, and Rizzo all down a notch each.

 

There’s a splitting-the-baby element to the decision. The two most important principles in lineup construction are get your best players the most at-bats, and bat your OBP in front of your power. Maddon breaks one of these rules to help address the second.

 

On a team that doesn’t have a prototypical leadoff man any more, Zobrist is a reasonable solution. He has a career .358 OBP, a .380 mark in two seasons in Chicago and is at .354 this season. He builds that OBP with a moderate batting average (.270 as a Cub) and plenty of walks; this combination has more value in the leadoff spot than anywhere else, because the leadoff man bats with so few runners on base. Zobrist has some pop, with a .450 SLG and 24 homers as a Cub, but not so much that you feel you’re wasting his power batting him first. Zobrist isn’t unfamiliar with the job; he batted leadoff 129 times in 10 seasons prior to joining the Cubs.

 

In moving Zobrist up, though, Maddon chose to move Bryant and Rizzo down so as to keep Schwarber — quietly being platooned in May — near the top of the order. That takes at-bats — approximately 18 a season each, four games’ worth — away from Bryant and Rizzo and gives them to Schwarber. Batting Bryant and Rizzo second and third was one of the best things Maddon did, slotting his best hitter second and his left-handed counterpart right behind him. The four to five runs the Cubs lose by taking plate appearances away from Bryant and Rizzo eats up much of the value gained by optimizing the leadoff spot.

 

 

Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo moving down in the lineup costs the Cubs about four to five runs. (David Banks/USA TODAY Sports)

Ideally, Maddon would have elevated Zobrist while leaving Bryant and Rizzo alone, but that would have entailed dropping Schwarber. Schwarber, hitting .181/.299/.356 (and 2-for-16 with nine strikeouts since we wrote about him here last week), has become the elephant in the room for the Cubs. For all of the narrative around Schwarber, he’s now the second-worst player in the National League this year. In 465 career plate appearances he has a .217/.331/.429 line with wretched defensive performance. (Plus, yes, that .364/.451/.727 line, with five homers, in 51 postseason PA). Even just against righties, he’s at .190/.297/.381 this year. By keeping Schwarber in the No. 2 slot and dropping Bryant and Rizzo, Maddon is taking PAs away from his best hitters and giving them to one of his worst.

 

Maddon, of course, is trying to do multiple things at once here. He wants to set a lineup that scores lots of runs, but he is also trying to nurse Schwarber, whom the Cubs still value highly, through a rough season. For the most part, players hit what they hit no matter where you put them in a batting order. On the ground, however, the lineup carries meaning. Where you bat is part of your identity, and big changes can have an effect. For Maddon, already stealth-platooning Schwarber, to drop the big man to the bottom half of the order carries some risk not captured by our principles. This is all happening against the backdrop of Ian Happ arriving to the tune of a .297/.409/.622 line in 11 games, something that adds to the pressure on Schwarber to hit, and hit soon.

 

Schwarber’s poor offense has served as cover for a number of his teammates. While his terrible work atop the lineup has been a factor in the team’s disappointing offense, so has the failure of the Cubs’ other young hitters to produce, particularly against right-handed pitching.

 

 

Schwarber: 190/297/381 in 145 PA

Addi: 207/256/331 in 129

Willy: 216/268/375 in 97

Javy: 267/287/478 in 97

Almora: 197/234/276 in 65

 

 

That group has been less effective against righties than House Democrats. All of the players other than Schwarber carry significant defensive value, of course, but when you’re starting two to four of these guys most days, all carrying sub-.300 OBPs, it becomes hard to build a lineup. Schwarber, by dint of batting leadoff and carrying the highest expectations, is taking a disproportionate amount of the grief, when there’s plenty to go around.

 

Unfortunately, he’s also the one who has to hit to play, and the arrival of Happ just further complicates that equation. Remember that Schwarber all but skipped Triple-A, playing just 17 games at Iowa before being called up in 2015, and he had a 34 percent strikeout rate at that level. Back then, he was a cromulent catcher who had hit at every level. Today, he’s a very bad outfielder coming off a year lost to knee surgery with a career .232/.340/.456 line above Double-A. Given that he’s already being platooned, it may be time for the Cubs to let him head back to Iowa for a few weeks.

 

Failing that, here’s what I would do with the Cubs’ lineups, taking into account both sabermetric optimization and the reality on the ground.

 

Vs RHP

 

Zo

KB

Rizz

Happ

Heyward

Willy

Addi

P

Schwarber

 

Vs LHP

 

Zo

KB

Rizz

Willy

Happ

Javy

Almora

P

Addi

 

 

It’s very hard to slot Schwarber while also balancing all of the other factors. The worst place for a young NL hitter is in front of the pitcher, so the No. 7 slot is no good, and any higher creates L/L spots in the lineup that are best — and easily — avoided. Batting Schwarber ninth seems like a demotion, but in a pitcher-bats-eighth lineup the No. 9 hole is an important slot.

 

One indication of just how sharp the Cubs are is the way Maddon moved the bottom of the order in line with dropping Bryant and Rizzo. Batting the pitcher eighth, which the Cubs did for 35 of their first 41 games, is a lineup-optimization play tied directly to batting your best hitter second. You’re trying to create more distance between the pitcher batting and the best hitter, so that the latter can bat with more runners on base while also batting more often. Once the No. 2 slot was no longer being used for the best hitter, starting May 21, the pitcher was dropped to ninth and has stayed there.

 

The Cubs roster, with its moving parts, multi-position players, large platoon splits, and plus defenders, lends itself to experimentation. Jon Jay and Miguel Montero are going to play. Ian Happ is probably not the everyday player he appears to be in the lineups above. Ben Zobrist, at 36, may not be either. As Jon Greenberg wrote the other day, after about a year of lineup stability, we can expect the Cubs to use a lot of different orders the rest of the way. Ideally, they’d stick to first principles — OBP in front of SLG, best hitters bat most often — but the need to develop players and manage people will have to come into play.

 

Whether the Cubs’ offense rebounds, however, will have less to do with the batting order and more to do with whether their young hitters bounce back against the right-handed pitchers who have stifled them so far.

 

 

I do not agree that Kyle should take a demotion to Iowa. However, I also don't really agree with those who say he would have nothing to gain there. But as it is, I do agree that, if he continues to struggle, he probably should be dropped even further in the lineup. I want Bryzzo and Zo to get the lion's share of the PA. I don't have a problem with giving this more time to work itself out, though.

 

Thoughts?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

horsefeathers 'em up, Cubs.

 

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someone's gettin' a little cocky that their offense started hitting better than a group of homeless guys against LHP

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I do not agree that Kyle should take a demotion to Iowa. However, I also don't really agree with those who say he would have nothing to gain there. But as it is, I do agree that, if he continues to struggle, he probably should be dropped even further in the lineup. I want Bryzzo and Zo to get the lion's share of the PA. I don't have a problem with giving this more time to work itself out, though.

 

Thoughts?

 

I also don't think Schwarber should go to the minors.

 

If this were the playoffs, I imagine the Cubs would move Bryzzo up to 2-3. As you said, there's time for experimentation still.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

horsefeathers 'em up, Cubs.

 

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someone's gettin' a little cocky that their offense started hitting better than a group of homeless guys against LHP

 

Against the 2nd easiest SOS in MLB (stolen from you).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, it's three straight posts but my sig invokes awesome memories so deal with it. Where can I get a good feed since I live in LA and can't watch Dodger games?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Yeah, it's three straight posts but my sig invokes awesome memories so deal with it. Where can I get a good feed since I live in LA and can't watch Dodger games?

Can't go to a bar?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, it's three straight posts but my sig invokes awesome memories so deal with it. Where can I get a good feed since I live in LA and can't watch Dodger games?

Can't go to a bar?

 

I have a 13-day old. I think my wife would kill me, especially since she's as big a Cubs fan and probably has more cabin fever than me.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

take the kid to the bar with you. that's what my dad would do

[We Got The Whole 9]

Yeah, it's three straight posts but my sig invokes awesome memories so deal with it. Where can I get a good feed since I live in LA and can't watch Dodger games?

Can't go to a bar?

 

I have a 13-day old. I think my wife would kill me, especially since she's as big a Cubs fan and probably has more cabin fever than me.

Ha, never mind. I'm listening to 570 am . I hate when we play the Doyers.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

take the kid to the bar with you. that's what my dad would do

 

My dad was never around so I guess I'll just take notes from you.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Are you allowed to blow on your hand in 66 degree weather like Wood? Or is that an outdated thing and doesn't apply in today's baseball?

[mul21]

Anyone having issues with the Cubs feed on mlbtv? This is the second straight game I've gotten error messages when I try to watch and every other game and feed I've tried works fine.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Are you allowed to blow on your hand in 66 degree weather like Wood? Or is that an outdated thing and doesn't apply in today's baseball?

I thought I heard a while back that's not a thing anymore

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Can't go to a bar?

 

I have a 13-day old. I think my wife would kill me, especially since she's as big a Cubs fan and probably has more cabin fever than me.

Ha, never mind. I'm listening to 570 am . I hate when we play the Doyers.

 

At least tomorrow's game is on channel 11.

[woodchip2153]

Anyone having issues with the Cubs feed on mlbtv? This is the second straight game I've gotten error messages when I try to watch and every other game and feed I've tried works fine.

 

working fine for me

[halplm]

So, I'm living in California, but my fiance is in the Chicago area... if I move into the Chicago suburbs, will my online streaming capabilities be ruined?

[mul21]

So, I'm living in California, but my fiance is in the Chicago area... if I move into the Chicago suburbs, will my online streaming capabilities be ruined?

 

Not if you have cable for games on CSN.

[Sammy Sofa]

Did not go into this season thinking that Addison, Willson and Schwarber combined would be a giant pile of suck. What the hell.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

That's a bad call.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It has been [ 0 ] days since an umpire cowardly refused to call an obvious balk

[Cubswin11]

Did not go into this season thinking that Addison, Willson and Schwarber combined would be a giant pile of suck. What the hell.

Russell was doing well until this shoulder thing started

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, he was safe and Wood balked.