Cubs Predictions for 2017

[David]

Some dood spotted that Contreras's defensive value was too insanely low to be believed, and there actually was an error. Not sure when it was corrected. Also, they have Jon Jay projected to get 450 PAs (200 for Almora) and Baez somehow has negative defensive value...and only 133 PA at 2B (for a total of 438, less than Mr. Federalist). Relief ERAs seem a touch high across the board. There are issues.

 

These seem like reasonable totals at first glance. Maybe a touch high with all the mixing and matching Joe will do.

There is no way that a guy that hits from the same side as Heyward and Schwarber and isn't an especially good defender gets that many ABs in the OF. Barring injuries, 0 chance. He would need to be starting in CF nearly every game against righties this season. Do you think that is reasonable?

 

EDIT: Did not realize Jay was a switch hitter. I still think its way high, but I no longer think its insane.

REEDIT: He isn't a switch hitter. But has reversish splits.

 

Yes I expect Jay to get most starts in CF against righties.

 

I doubt Almora will play his way into too many starts vs. same handed pitching.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

These seem like reasonable totals at first glance. Maybe a touch high with all the mixing and matching Joe will do.

There is no way that a guy that hits from the same side as Heyward and Schwarber and isn't an especially good defender gets that many ABs in the OF. Barring injuries, 0 chance. He would need to be starting in CF nearly every game against righties this season. Do you think that is reasonable?

 

EDIT: Did not realize Jay was a switch hitter. I still think its way high, but I no longer think its insane.

REEDIT: He isn't a switch hitter. But has reversish splits.

 

Yes I expect Jay to get most starts in CF against righties.

 

I doubt Almora will play his way into too many starts vs. same handed pitching.

I think at least a third of the right handed pitcher games will have Heyward in CF with Zobrist or Bryant in RF. And those will be dictated by the best defensive alignment behind whomever is on the mound for us.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't know if we have a projection thread for 2017, so I'm putting this here: PECOTA projects the Cubs to win 90 games in 2017, winning the Central by (i think) 8 games over the Pirates. The Dodgers are projected to have 98 wins, which seems like a ton for a projection system that typically seems to have a small standard deviation between the best and worst teams.

 

waiting for TT to remind me that PECOTA sucks

 

(seriously, though, dodgers with 98 wins on that projection system? wtf?)

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

yeah, they seem to love the dodgers excessively and *slightly* under-love the cubs (or they wayyyyy over love the dodgers, depending on how conservative you expect it to be)

 

I'm not a BP subscriber, but this seems to be the same LAD offense = CHC offense nonsense that we were laughing at before. Also it seems likely that PECOTA weights historical performance a bit too heavily. You can see that in LAD's offense being propped up by older performance(Puig, Gonzalez, etc) and in the Mets forecast in that tweet(Granderson, Wright, etc)

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I know that Almora isn't a world beater at the plate, but a .650 OPS? Presumably with most of those 200 ABs against lefties? Jeez.

[David]

I know that Almora isn't a world beater at the plate, but a .650 OPS? Presumably with most of those 200 ABs against lefties? Jeez.

 

Meh...he was a mid .700s guy in the minors. Maybe he figures things out a bit and does better, but doesn't seem unreasonable.

[gobigred]

Just make the playoffs and keep Schwarber healthy he is just too damn fun to watch hit to be robbed of another season...Also Heyward will ground out to second and hit a ton of pop ups...There is zero pressure on this team to win it all which may help too

[UMFan83]

Have the Dodgers even done that much to correct their fatal flaw of hitting against LHP? I see basically the same roster except switch Utley with Forsythe

[David]

btw, mods, i feel like the projection stuff should be moved to the projection thread so davell's thread can keep going the way it was supposed to (with posters making predictions)

 

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1152

[David]

Have the Dodgers even done that much to correct their fatal flaw of hitting against LHP? I see basically the same roster except switch Utley with Forsythe

 

how fatal of a flaw is it for a team that won 91 games and got to within 2 wins of the world series?

[UMFan83]

Have the Dodgers even done that much to correct their fatal flaw of hitting against LHP? I see basically the same roster except switch Utley with Forsythe

 

how fatal of a flaw is it for a team that won 91 games and got to within 2 wins of the world series?

 

I just mean their biggest weakness which seemed to be very glaring when the parade of lefties kept marching to the plate and looking helpless against Lester.

[David]

Have the Dodgers even done that much to correct their fatal flaw of hitting against LHP? I see basically the same roster except switch Utley with Forsythe

 

how fatal of a flaw is it for a team that won 91 games and got to within 2 wins of the world series?

 

I just mean their biggest weakness which seemed to be very glaring when the parade of lefties kept marching to the plate and looking helpless against Lester.

 

lots of teams looked helpless against lester

 

yeah, they were really bad hitting lefties and they should probably address it since it would seem an easy enough hole to fill (find some lefty mashing righties to platoon for their worst offenders) but either way, they are a very good team that has as good a chance as any at winning a WS next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Dodgers' problem is less that they can't hit LHP(some of that will correct itself), but more that for a team that most expect to easily clear 90 wins, they're surprisingly light on people good at hitting.

[UMFan83]

 

how fatal of a flaw is it for a team that won 91 games and got to within 2 wins of the world series?

 

I just mean their biggest weakness which seemed to be very glaring when the parade of lefties kept marching to the plate and looking helpless against Lester.

 

lots of teams looked helpless against lester

 

yeah, they were really bad hitting lefties and they should probably address it since it would seem an easy enough hole to fill (find some lefty mashing righties to platoon for their worst offenders) but either way, they are a very good team that has as good a chance as any at winning a WS next year.

 

i agree they are a very good team. One finished 30th in the league in OPS against left handers..which is why I was curious if they did anything to address this in the offseason beyond swapping utley for forsythe.

 

you are right though, they can certainly address in July if they need to as a righty platoon guy that hits lefties well shouldn't be too expensive.

Edited February 8, 2017 by UMFan83

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I know that Almora isn't a world beater at the plate, but a .650 OPS? Presumably with most of those 200 ABs against lefties? Jeez.

 

Meh...he was a mid .700s guy in the minors. Maybe he figures things out a bit and does better, but doesn't seem unreasonable.

...I'm going to take the over.

[champaignchris]

I predict both Jay and Heyward have higher WARs for the Cubs than Fowler does for the Cardinals.

[cubweiser03]

and Baez somehow has negative defensive value...and only 133 PA at 2B (for a total of 438, less than Mr. Federalist.

Further proof this 91W projection is tar tar. Baez would still have a positive defense value if he played with his batting glove and not fielding glove at 2b. 133PA? That's like 30 games, dudes gonna start at least 100 at 2b. He's gonna be a better hitter too, bar none.

[David]

I will take the under on 100 Baez starts at 2B

[davell]

I'm as big of a Javy guy as there is, I don't see 100+ starts at 2B. Maybe 80-90. He'll get a decent number of starts at SS and 3B too. My over/under for him is 500PA. I think that he winds up in that range, if he's healthy.

 

My guess at his slash.......275/.315/465

[Splendid Splinter]

Javy started 97 games last year. 2 @ 1B, 21 @ SS, 36 @ 3B, and 38 @ 2B.

 

I can see him get about the same at 1B and SS. He'll probably get around 20-30 at 3B and then most likely around 50 at 2B. I wouldn't be surprised to see a start or 2 in the OF somewhere. That still puts him around 100 starts again.

 

The only way I see him getting more starts is if one of starting IF is out for an extended time or he takes a step forward against RHP and/or plate discipline.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I see him getting about 100 at 2B and more of the Heyward in CF, Zo in RF, than people are expecting.

 

His defensive value is just astronomical at 2B.

[Splendid Splinter]

I see him getting about 100 at 2B and more of the Heyward in CF, Zo in RF, than people are expecting.

 

His defensive value is just astronomical at 2B.

 

That's only happening if Zobrist gets hurt. Baez will be getting 40-50 starts at SS/3B (Russell will get his rest and Bryant can move to 1B/LF/RF) plus a couple at 1B/OF. If you give him 100 starts at 2B then he's at ~150 starts unless you think he's barely going to get any starts at SS/3B. Then we're talking about him getting like 600+ PAs.

[Cubswin11]

I hope Javy doesn't get close to 100 starts at 2B, because it's far more likely it's because an injury happened to a better player than it is he figured out RHP

[cubweiser03]

Baez has crazy def value at 2nd plus his bat there is a bonus, way more than at 3b. Bryant shouldn't be in the OF near as much as last year(36GS) with schwarbs/zobrist. If zobrist starts more at 2b than javy that's a jar full of planters peanuts nuts. At worst a 50-50 split. Zobrist is super utility with Jorge gone from LF, he's filling in for those starts.

[Cubswin11]

Baez has crazy def value at 2nd plus his bat there is a bonus, way more than at 3b. Bryant shouldn't be in the OF near as much as last year(36GS) with schwarbs/zobrist. If zobrist starts more at 2b than javy that's a jar full of planters peanuts nuts. At worst a 50-50 split. Zobrist is super utility with Jorge gone from LF, he's filling in for those starts.

No, just no

[jersey cubs fan]

Baez has crazy def value at 2nd plus his bat there is a bonus, way more than at 3b. Bryant shouldn't be in the OF near as much as last year(36GS) with schwarbs/zobrist. If zobrist starts more at 2b than javy that's a jar full of planters peanuts nuts. At worst a 50-50 split. Zobrist is super utility with Jorge gone from LF, he's filling in for those starts.

Super utility isn't a thing.

 

 

And zobrist should play a lot of 2nd.