10/18 NLCS Game 3: Cubs (Jake) @ Dodgers (Rich Hill) & Stupid Old Umpire 7:00 PM CT FS1/670

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not saying I would be utterly shocked if Heyward weren't in tomorrow's lineup, but if Joe was going to play him against Kershaw, knowing he would be [expletive] useless at the plate, in a smaller ballpark, I don't know why he wouldn't play him against a lefty not named Kershaw in a much larger ballpark.

 

Exactly. I'm not opposed to putting Contreras or Soler into LF, moving Zobrist to 2B and Baez to SS to try and spark the offense, but for a team who relies so much on their defense, having some combination of Contreras, Soler and Zobrist manning the corners in LA seems a bit too dicey.

[Omar]

Cubs v. Hill

Name             PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
David Ross       14 13 1  1  0  0   0  1  7 .077 .143 .154  .297  0  0   0   0         0
Chris Coghlan     3  3 1  1  0  0   0  0  2 .333 .333 .667 1.000  0  0   0   0         0
Ben Zobrist       3  2 1  0  0  0   1  1  0 .500 .667 .500 1.167  0  0   0   0         0
Miguel Montero    2  1 0  0  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .500 .000  .500  0  0   0   0         0
Total            22 19 3  2  0  0   1  3  9 .158 .273 .263  .536  0  0   0   0         0
Has not faced: Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Tommy La Stella, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler & Has not faced pitchers: Jake Arrieta, Aroldis Chapman, Carl Edwards, Justin Grimm, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Mike Montgomery, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Travis Wood

 

Dodgers v. Arrieta

Name                PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Adrian Gonzalez     22 21  6  1  0  1   2  1  4 .286 .318  .476  .794  0  0   0   0         0
Chase Utley         13 13  0  0  0  0   0  0  3 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Carlos Ruiz         11  9  3  1  0  0   1  2  2 .333 .455  .444  .899  0  0   0   0         0
Josh Reddick         9  9  4  0  0  1   1  0  1 .444 .444  .778 1.222  0  0   0   0         0
Andre Ethier         8  7  1  1  0  0   0  1  3 .143 .250  .286  .536  0  0   0   0         0
Howie Kendrick       8  6  1  0  0  0   1  2  0 .167 .375  .167  .542  0  0   0   0         0
Yasmani Grandal      6  4  0  0  0  0   0  2  2 .000 .333  .000  .333  0  0   0   0         0
Joc Pederson         6  6  0  0  0  0   0  0  4 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Charlie Culberson    3  2  0  0  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .333  .000  .333  0  0   0   0         0
Yasiel Puig          3  3  2  1  0  0   0  0  0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667  0  0   0   0         0
Corey Seager         3  3  1  0  0  0   0  0  1 .333 .333  .333  .667  0  0   0   0         0
Justin Turner        2  2  0  0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Total               94 85 18  4  0  2   5  9 22 .212 .287  .329  .617  0  0   0   0         0
Has not faced: Austin Barnes and Andrew Toles & Has not faced pitchers: Luis Avilan, Pedro Baez, Joe Blanton, Grant Dayton, Josh Fields, Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling and Julio Urias

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Guys, we got this. After all, we're stealing the Dodgers' signs: http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-cubs-grandal-20161016-snap-story.html

[MUCubsfan]

I really dont get why anyone thinks Soler is going to out play Heyward. Hit probably be just as bad with the bat and 10 times worse in the field

 

Probably because Soler did outplay Heyward this year (at the plate), has a crapload of power that is kind of missing from this lineup outside of Bryzzo and Javy, had an .864 OPS since Aug 1st (not including 0-6 in the playoffs so far, too lazy to do the math) and had an OPS against lefties that was 230 points higher than Heywards in 2016.

 

If you want to argue that its not worth benching Heyward against a lefty because of the drop off in defense, that's fine. But saying that he'll probably be just as bad at the plate as Heyward against a lefty is silly.

 

check out their splits against the dodgers and at LA. Heyward has outhit him in both instances. Now, why exactly, idk, and sample size, but it seems to me that playing Heyward might make as much sense for his bat then his D.

Looking past the fact that Soler has 7 career at bats in Dodger Stadium... how is this at all relevant?

[Sammy Sofa]

LET COGHLAN PLAY. His 3 AB's deem it to be so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

In between 2 month stints on the DL, sure, maybe.

 

But the fact that we may as well play with 2 OF and a broom with a glove on it propped up in LF when he's out there sort of matters.

I think that's overstating Solers defensive deficiency. He's better than Schwarber was defensively and has a solid throwing arm. He's no Heyward but nobody is.

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Probably because Soler did outplay Heyward this year (at the plate), has a crapload of power that is kind of missing from this lineup outside of Bryzzo and Javy, had an .864 OPS since Aug 1st (not including 0-6 in the playoffs so far, too lazy to do the math) and had an OPS against lefties that was 230 points higher than Heywards in 2016.

 

If you want to argue that its not worth benching Heyward against a lefty because of the drop off in defense, that's fine. But saying that he'll probably be just as bad at the plate as Heyward against a lefty is silly.

 

check out their splits against the dodgers and at LA. Heyward has outhit him in both instances. Now, why exactly, idk, and sample size, but it seems to me that playing Heyward might make as much sense for his bat then his D.

Looking past the fact that Soler has 7 career at bats in Dodger Stadium... how is this at all relevant?

 

relevant in the size and location of the ballpark. if Soler is hitting "would be home runs" in a park that is massive and that plays like a pitchers park at dusk because of the cooling marine air, hes likely making a lot of outs. Heyward, with obviously less power, needs luck from the BABIP gods, but may have more of a chance to get on base then Soler does. I mean, unless Soler really knocks the living horsefeathers out of the ball, hes just going to fly out. And unless Heyward finds a gap, hes likely to make a lot of outs. That being the case, I'd take Heywards defense.

[ConstableRabbit]

I think that's overstating Solers defensive deficiency. He's better than Schwarber was defensively and has a solid throwing arm. He's no Heyward but nobody is.

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

Soler is so bad that you have to qualify that Schawber's ACL would be in tact for the purposes of this comparison exercise.

[David]

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

Soler is so bad that you have to qualify that Schawber's ACL would be in tact for the purposes of this comparison exercise.

lmao

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I was hoping to avoid the pedantry of 'we don't know how good Schwarber will be after tearing his ACL, he might be worse than before', but I appear to have sidestepped one pothole for another.

[gobigred]

I cant be the only one that thought Heywards pop up was a homer.....how does a guy with that size hit a ball that looks like a home run and have it only go 150 feet

[ConstableRabbit]

Ugh, typo ruined my excellent joke. Carry on.

[Cubswin11]

I think that's overstating Solers defensive deficiency. He's better than Schwarber was defensively and has a solid throwing arm. He's no Heyward but nobody is.

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

Yeah I think I'd rather take the chances Soler comes up and produces with a meaningful AB in the first ~6 innings before being pulled for defense than him not making a play on a ball that someone else would've in the first ~6 innings of the game. Plus there's also the whole Jake and soft contact thing where if a ball is hit towards Georgie in LF it's likely going to be a lazy flyball or grounder that gets its way through the infield. Add to the fact that the lefty-palooza lineup that will be thrown out against Jake the odds of something hit to LF that give Georgie trouble aren't that high. I know he's a bad defender regardless and the "ease" of a flyball doesn't mean his still might not butcher it.

Edited October 17, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

I cant be the only one that thought Heywards pop up was a homer.....how does a guy with that size hit a ball that looks like a home run and have it only go 150 feet

Yeah, I didn't necessarily think HR off the bat but I definitely was thinking he hit it hard and it had a chance to be a hit only to see a lazy flyball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I cant be the only one that thought Heywards pop up was a homer.....how does a guy with that size hit a ball that looks like a home run and have it only go 150 feet

 

I audibly gasped when it came off the bat, then the camera angle was still nearly in the infield and I realized he backspinned the bejeezus out of it.

[USSoccer]

The 5th best hitter on the best offense in baseball is objectively valuable.

 

Assuming he's hitting and healthy, sure, but he's not hitting, and he's terrible defensively, and we're playing in a park with a very large OF.

 

You are basing him not hitting on 6 playoff ABs - one start and 3 PH appearances?

 

He was bad in September, but I'm mostly basing my stance on his defense.

 

I think that's overstating Solers defensive deficiency. He's better than Schwarber was defensively and has a solid throwing arm. He's no Heyward but nobody is.

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

 

But you're still having to deal with bad defense for half the game in that scenario. Given the size of the park, it's effect on power numbers in general and the massive difference in defense between Soler and Heyward I just can't see how it makes any sense to start Soler.

 

If you're that concerned about Heyward v LHP, that you want to start a RHH, you're almost better off starting Almora.

[USSoccer]

I cant be the only one that thought Heywards pop up was a homer.....how does a guy with that size hit a ball that looks like a home run and have it only go 150 feet

 

I thought that ball was crushed to the point that I jumped up. And then felt dumb when it wasn't even a medium fly ball.

[UMFan83]

people are acting like Soler is HR or nothing and that the rest of the time he has horrible ABs. Soler has actually improved his approach quite a bit this year to the point where I am much more confident in him having a good AB regardless of outcome than Heyward, especially against a lefty.

 

And people do hit HRs at night at Dodger Stadium. Yes its hard, but if anything its an advantage to have an extra bat in the lineup that does have the strength to knock one out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Nah.

 

Soler is really really bad defensively. There's no overstating it.

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

 

But you're still having to deal with bad defense for half the game in that scenario. Given the size of the park, it's effect on power numbers in general and the massive difference in defense between Soler and Heyward I just can't see how it makes any sense to start Soler.

 

If you're that concerned about Heyward v LHP, that you want to start a RHH, you're almost better off starting Almora.

 

Almora would be preferable to Heyward and his .586 OPS against LHP this year, because since you're already starting Montero against a LHP for defense and you can't punt the entire bottom 3rd of the order for defensive purposes. I'd still rather Soler hit because I don't trust Almora at the plate at all, and knowing what you want to do with Soler going in means you can maximize the upside while minimzing the downside. The last game was a perfect example, he got 4 plate appearances and had one fly ball hit his way. Against leftypalooza you can probably similarly hide him in LF with similar outcomes. I'm not 100% sure if I'd put him as high in the lineup because that puts you in a tricky late innings spot where Rizzo could be pitched around to get to Heyward/Almora, but we're splitting hairs at that point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

people are acting like Soler is HR or nothing and that the rest of the time he has horrible ABs. Soler has actually improved his approach quite a bit this year to the point where I am much more confident in him having a good AB regardless of outcome than Heyward, especially against a lefty.

 

And people do hit HRs at night at Dodger Stadium. Yes its hard, but if anything its an advantage to have an extra bat in the lineup that does have the strength to knock one out.

 

It's going to be pretty warm Wednesday and Thursday with little or no marine influence. Also, the sun will be out for the first hour of the game. There should be a few homers in Games 4 and 5.

[USSoccer]

 

Soler is bad defensively and probably worse than a healthy Schwarber, but the last page or so definitely proves it can be overstated. Especially in this case where he can easily be pulled after his 2nd/3rd at bat to minimize time in the field.

 

But you're still having to deal with bad defense for half the game in that scenario. Given the size of the park, it's effect on power numbers in general and the massive difference in defense between Soler and Heyward I just can't see how it makes any sense to start Soler.

 

If you're that concerned about Heyward v LHP, that you want to start a RHH, you're almost better off starting Almora.

 

Almora would be preferable to Heyward and his .586 OPS against LHP this year, because since you're already starting Montero against a LHP for defense and you can't punt the entire bottom 3rd of the order for defensive purposes. I'd still rather Soler hit because I don't trust Almora at the plate at all, and knowing what you want to do with Soler going in means you can maximize the upside while minimzing the downside. The last game was a perfect example, he got 4 plate appearances and had one fly ball hit his way. Against leftypalooza you can probably similarly hide him in LF with similar outcomes. I'm not 100% sure if I'd put him as high in the lineup because that puts you in a tricky late innings spot where Rizzo could be pitched around to get to Heyward/Almora, but we're splitting hairs at that point.

 

Are we sure Montero will be catching?

[minnesotacubsfan]

people are acting like Soler is HR or nothing and that the rest of the time he has horrible ABs. Soler has actually improved his approach quite a bit this year to the point where I am much more confident in him having a good AB regardless of outcome than Heyward, especially against a lefty.

 

And people do hit HRs at night at Dodger Stadium. Yes its hard, but if anything its an advantage to have an extra bat in the lineup that does have the strength to knock one out.

 

It's going to be pretty warm Wednesday and Thursday with little or no marine influence. Also, the sun will be out for the first hour of the game. There should be a few homers in Games 4 and 5.

 

horsefeathers it, start Soler

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If it's Ross then I'd be more willing to let Heyward go out there, but we've already seen this exact sequence play out once(Arrieta on the road in a pitcher's park against a good LHSP) and it was Montero and Soler. So unless Miggy's back flares up or has been bad enough all along to prevent him from catching(doubtful), I think it'll be the same pair.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I cant be the only one that thought Heywards pop up was a homer.....how does a guy with that size hit a ball that looks like a home run and have it only go 150 feet

 

I audibly gasped when it came off the bat, then the camera angle was still nearly in the infield and I realized he backspinned the bejeezus out of it.

 

I can't be the only one who's noticed that the cameras have done that with every ball hit into the air all postseason. And really, it's by design.

[Cubswin11]

I know lineup construction means very little, I wouldn't mind seeing Jake hit 8th and Russell 9th for this one either.