2016 Instructs & AFL Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Carrie Muskat[/url]"]Cubs instructional league begins today in Mesa, Ariz. Besides the daily drills, a select group will combine with Angels players to play games versus other teams in the Valley. The Cubs prospects on that team include pitchers Dylan Cease, Jared Cheek, Oscar De La Cruz, Jordan Minch, Kyle Miller, Tommy Nance, James Norwood, Carson Sands, Justin Steele and Jen-Ho Tseng; catchers PJ Higgins, Alberto Mineo and Ian Rice; infielders Carlos Sepulveda and Jason Vosler; and outfielders Donnie Dewees and Eddy Martinez.

 

The Cubs’ top 2016 Draft pick, right-hander Thomas Hatch, who was selected in the third round, will take part in the workouts at the team complex in Mesa.

[davell]

There always are. My guess is we'll get Perlaza, Ademan, Sierra, Amaya, Marquez, Carrera, Gutierrez, and Diaz from the last group of signings and Cuevas, Guerrero, Garcia off the DSL2 team that have multiple years down there. Probably Narea and Rosario from DSL1. Obviously, not all will stick.

 

There's going to be a battle for the Arizona Middle Infield spots between Ademan, Perlaza, Narea, and Diaz. Someone, maybe 2, will wind up spending an extra year in the DSL.

[CubsWin]

Cubs Den's John Arguello lives in Mesa and often spends time at the practice fields. He reports seeing 2015 IFAs Kwon, Morel, Sierra, Ademan and Amaya there on the 1st day of instructs yesterday. Not a complete list, but there's confirmation on those names.

[davell]

List of DSL guys, from AZPhil.....

 

P Faustino Carrara, Hector Garcia, Alfredo Colorado, Brailyn Marquez, Farlis Guerrero, Yunior Perez, Carlos Ocampo, Eury Ramos

 

C Miguel Amaya

 

INF

Aramis Ademan, Jonathan Perlaza, Luis Diaz, Rafael Narea, Christopher Morel

 

OF

Jose Gutierrez, Jonathan Sierra, Fernando Keli, Abraham Rodriguez

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's got a copy of the roster: http://bba.am/6GP5qo

[TruffleShuffle]

hey, jose albertos is still alive.

[CubsWin]

Here's another prospect from the 2015 IFA class we can dream on...

 

Coaches & Player Development personnel impressed with 17-year old INF Christopher Morel at instructs BP this morning, drawing comps to a young Starlin Castro.

 

Morel worked out at 3B on Field #4 and looked very good at the hot corner, and then took BP on Field #6, launching several balls over the LF fence and onto the south bank of the Loop 202 Freeway.

 

Morel was a 2015 IFA signing ($800K bonus) and was supposed to make his pro debut this season, and while he was on the AZL Cubs active roster throughout the summer and was dressed for games and participated in pre-game drills, he did not see any AZL game action.

 

Morel suffered a severe laceration to his left arm at minor league mini-camp last winter, and he did not participate in Minor League Camp or Extended Spring Training,

 

Morel turned 17 this past June, and he was the youngest player in the Cubs organization as of July 1st.

[craig]

Thanks for the links, guys. Cool to get some up-beat impressions on Morel. Will be interesting to see how some of these guys progress. Torres and Eloy stood out pretty quickly, and that class looks to be impact. Between Sierra, Morel, Amaya, Albertos, and Paredes, will be interesting to see if the Cubs can get a couple of guys out of last year's class. With nothing international on the sandwich years, and no high draft picks this year, it's probably VERY important that the Cubs get some significant impact prospects out of that international class.

 

My guess is the Cubs won't be signing any draft-pick FA's this winter, so if Fowler goes, having a first and a comp pick could give them some chance to add a couple of good talents. Obviously two picks in the 30's isn't like having top 10 picks like we built with, and maybe you take a shot with a comp pick on a projection pick and he never ends up any faster than Paul Blackburn. But given the Cubs scouting, I'd be pretty happy to take two shots at a couple of pitchers with our two picks.

[davell]

I kind of suspect we'll go over slot on a TJS guy that was a top 10 type talent or someone who just wants a lot more than slot, in general, that's fallen due to demands. I'd be OK with taking pitching at both spots too. Even taking senior college guys in 6 or 7-10, to give us more up front money.

[cubfro]

Why are we talking about drafting pitching with first round draft picks? We are literally the best in the business at identifying and developing Bats. Meanwhile our record with pitchers is not good and they are riskier anyway.

[davell]

Why are we talking about drafting pitching with first round draft picks? We are literally the best in the business at identifying and developing Bats. Meanwhile our record with pitchers is not good and they are riskier anyway.

 

Identifying top 10 picks is one thing. You're not going to find bats with big upside where we'll be picking. There will be big upside arms around though, possibly even a top 10 caliber type that's fallen for one reason or another.

[davell]

Why are we talking about drafting pitching with first round draft picks? We are literally the best in the business at identifying and developing Bats. Meanwhile our record with pitchers is not good and they are riskier anyway.

 

Double

[cubfro]

Why are we talking about drafting pitching with first round draft picks? We are literally the best in the business at identifying and developing Bats. Meanwhile our record with pitchers is not good and they are riskier anyway.

 

Identifying top 10 picks is one thing. You're not going to find bats with big upside where we'll be picking. There will be big upside arms around though, possibly even a top 10 caliber type that's fallen for one reason or another.

 

I get where you are coming from, but you can easily get a good 1b prospect in that range like Rizzo, Aj Reed, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge (of). It may be harder to find up the middle all star type players, but I hope we get a hitter with one of those picks.

[craig]

My feeling is that by the time you're drafting in the 30's, there are some very talented and high-ceiling pitchers available, particular HS pitchers. Yes, they have significant injury risk, as do all pitchers. But by that point, the risk that a position player will fail because he's just not good enough is just as high-risk.

 

Given the Cubs have almost no excellent rotation prospects, and that our staff is old, I'd like to see pitchers. We could use a couple of high-end arms.

[craig]

...Hopefully they do without the TJ thing, hopefully the preference far and away with a pick that high at this point is that he not come pre-injured. Agreed otherwise - along the lines of a Justin Hooper or Mike Nikorak (if HS) that happens to fall further for polish and $$ reasons though the tools and ceiling are still relatively hard to find. A couple arms I like early is HS RH Kyle Hurt and college RHP Tristan Beck (Stanford). I'm down to take pitchig at both spots.

 

Craig, I would not be surprised if a couple of these IFAs make up the elite prospects and most of the top 10 in the system by 2018-2019. I think there's multiple guys (Paredes, Sierra, Carrera, Marquez, Amaya, hopefully others) with that kind of talent.

 

Yeah, I'm not necessarily enthused about TJ rehabbers, but I'm fine with trusting the admin on this. They've got more info and will have plenty of time to do a lot of thinking/analysis.

 

But I think a lot of good pitchers were HS picks in the comp-area. Syndegaard, Matz, Luke Weaver, some good talent is available in that area. We'll have two shots. Not sure I'd be trying to burn it all on one superslot and go cheap with the other; may just want to do two pure scouting picks.

 

Not sure how our scouting is, though. Our scouts thought that Sands and Steele somehow had lots of projection, and Blackburn, and instead not of those guys ever got any faster than when they were in high school, with Sands getting slower. They scouted Stinnet as having this strong velocity and terrific control capacity; neither has proven remotely true. So, maybe we just don't know pitchers, beats me.

 

Tom, I wonder how much talent some of the Latins have, in terms of "elite" potential. Being an effective finesse pitcher in the dSL is one thing; but elites kind of need some pretty good physical capacity and velocity and breaking balls and stuff. No idea which have high ceilings, versus being lmited-tool overachiever guys. Hopefully Arguello and Phil will get to see several of them and pass along some scouting observations.

[davell]

Steele is 91-93, supposedly very athletic too. For a lefty, there's still plenty of upside there, even a bit of time too. The results sucked this year, but he's the guy I'd personally peg to break out next year.(if we're not going with usual suspects)

 

I'm not sure if I'd say we're not good at scouting pitching or not. There's not THAT many guys that really break out that weren't 1st rounders. And if we count Cease as a hit or close to it, it gives them a bit of success. Hell, Johnson and Underwood have hit top 100 lists, to where we had a bit of time to sell high on.(after all, they're pitchers)

 

At any rate, my guess is if they have a relatively decent sized draft budget and spend the bulk of it on pitching, their hit rate would be pretty decent. But we won't know this until or unless it happens.

[davell]

Craig, Marquez has size(6'4) and low 90's velo as a 17 year old and was considered the top 16 year old lefty at the time of signing. He's definitely a guy to dream on. If there are good reports on him at Instructs, I may throw him in the back of my top 30. Carrera has pitchibility. Who knows what becomes of him and if he can make a jump, get bigger, etc.....Or just wind up as the next Jeffry Antigua.

 

Yunior Perez hits 95, by the way. He's 6'5 or so too. But he's wild and literally has nothing but a straight FB currently. But still, he's a guy with some ingredients.

[craig]

Marques and Perez are definitely interesting. Assad.

Obviously Albertos.

Ocampo.

 

But yeah, as you say, the pitchability 6-footers, Antigua/Tseng types come to mind.

 

Steele 91-93, hope you're right. But I assume those are topping velocities. The couple of game reports I've seen were predominantly 80's, with an occasional 4-seam 91-93. Maybe a Travis Wood ceiling, without the curve? Or Clayton Richard with less velocity?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

My feeling is that by the time you're drafting in the 30's, there are some very talented and high-ceiling pitchers available, particular HS pitchers. Yes, they have significant injury risk, as do all pitchers. But by that point, the risk that a position player will fail because he's just not good enough is just as high-risk.

 

Given the Cubs have almost no excellent rotation prospects, and that our staff is old, I'd like to see pitchers. We could use a couple of high-end arms.

 

I'm on board with this line of thought. The massive gap in risk starts getting mitigated once you aren't picking top 10 caliber bats and it makes sense that you can get massive value with a pitcher by the compensation rounds.

 

Not to be annoying but just to clarify, in your other post you said Luke Weaver was a HS pick in the comp area but St Louis actually drafted him out of Florida State.

[craig]

Thanks for correction on Weaver. He was pick 28, I think, so wasn't literally comp round either (but close enough). I'm thinking HS, because sometimes talented HS pitchers last that long, in part due to the obvious risk. But no problem taking a good college pitcher either. (Lance Lynn, for example.)

 

I'm partly thinking like 2010 as an example:

34 Blue Jays *Aaron Sanchez (minors)

38 Blue Jays *Noah Syndergaard (minors)

43 Mariners *Taijuan Walker (minors)

 

Our guy Mike Montgomery was a comp pick.

 

When you look through the comp area for most drafts, there are a lot of guys who don't end up being very good, whether pitchers or players. The Cubs with Ryan Flaherty, Brett Jackson. The success rate isn't great, so pitcher-injury isn't the only risk.

 

Will take some good scouting and some good luck. But there are usually some guys in that area who become variably good.

[CubsWin]

I'm thinking HS, because sometimes talented HS pitchers last that long, in part due to the obvious risk. But no problem taking a good college pitcher either. (Lance Lynn, for example.)

 

I'm partly thinking like 2010 as an example:

34 Blue Jays *Aaron Sanchez (minors)

38 Blue Jays *Noah Syndergaard (minors)

43 Mariners *Taijuan Walker (minors)

 

Our guy Mike Montgomery was a comp pick.

 

When you look through the comp area for most drafts, there are a lot of guys who don't end up being very good, whether pitchers or players. The Cubs with Ryan Flaherty, Brett Jackson. The success rate isn't great, so pitcher-injury isn't the only risk.

 

Will take some good scouting and some good luck. But there are usually some guys in that area who become variably good.

I've heaped a lot of praise on the Cubs scouting and development staff over the last several seasons and deservedly so, but it's always been generalized or hitter-centric.

 

I know the Cubs had the highly-touted Derek Johnson (signed away from Vanderbilt) as their minor league pitching co-ordinator for 4 years (2012-15) but the proof never showed up in the pudding. Not saying he necessarily did a bad job. The Cubs didn't draft any pitching in the 1st round, injuries happened, etc. Whether it's instruction or scouting or a combo of both, so far the results aren't there.

 

That said, I'm excited for the future of Cubs pitching prospects and would love to see them add more with high picks in the coming drafts. The Cubs openly stated they'd focus on pitching in this year's draft and followed through taking 13 pitchers in their first 14 picks. I'd like to see them continue this strategy. Not necessarily with 13 out of their 1st 14 picks again, but certainly taking pitchers with their 1st 2 picks and only taking a bat if he's clearly the best player available and too good to pass up.

[CubsWin]

Speaking of Cubs pitching prospects, 3rd rounder Thomas Hatch was seen throwing at instructs today.

 

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[CubsWin]

I'm partly thinking like 2010 as an example:

34 Blue Jays *Aaron Sanchez (minors)

38 Blue Jays *Noah Syndergaard (minors)

43 Mariners *Taijuan Walker (minors)

After reading this, I did a little digging.

 

The following year, Theo did exactly what we're describing selecting Henry Owens in the comp round (36th overall). Joe Musgrove was taken 46th overall in the comp round and pitched fairly well for the Astros this season. Tigers starter Michael Fullmer was taken 44th. Of the 7 pitchers taken in the comp round of 2011, 4 of them have made it to the bigs with 3 of those having decent performances as starters thus far. Each of those 3 (Fullmer, Musgrove and Owens) were drafted out of high school as were the 3 you listed above from 2010.

 

In 2009, 11 pitchers were selected in the comp round, all but one of them from colleges. Only Garret Richards has hit big from that group, but there are a few other interesting names like James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs, who was the only prep arm from that group.

 

Sanchez, Syndergaard and Walker are certainly the exception, but finding a TOR or MOR in the late 1st/comp round can definitely be done.

[craig]

....I know the Cubs had the highly-touted Derek Johnson (signed away from Vanderbilt) as their minor league pitching co-ordinator for 4 years (2012-15) but the proof never showed up in the pudding. ....

 

Yeah, not sure they've really scouted great on the pitching. But, there's probably always a fair bit of luck involved. May also be that their scouting system is better established now than it was in the Blackburn draft.

 

And you never know, maybe development will end up better than we think?

*Zastryzny looked pretty good, maybe he'll be a useful lefty reliever or 6th starter?

*Maybe the relief version of Pierce Johnson will stay healthy, and end up being a good reliever? He was 35K/22 inning as a reliever; there is some talent there, I think.

*Chad Clifton has been a very nice development story, I think, even if Skulina and Sands haven't. Maybe Steele will make it in some capacity in the long run?

*And then there's Cease, whose early development, in terms of control and stuff, seems pretty favorable.

 

Heh heh, if we got a couple of pitchers in the 30's and another in the 2nd round, I'd certainly be delighted to give those scouts and development guys a couple more tries at it!

[craig]

Arguello has a ton of nice pictures up. Nice to get a kind of picture of the guys.

 

That was sure a lot of guys they signed in the 15 class. With smart guys and strong development process, hopefully a number of them click.