7/10 - Cubs (Lackey) @ Pirates (Niese) - 12:35 WGN

[David]

 

So what, even though they're top 5 in FIP/xFIP and they're a good rotation on paper, the past 3 weeks of terrible pitching is what can be expected for the rest of the season? I'm trying to figure out what the argument is here.

 

The argument is that almost the entire lineup has gone to [expletive] in this stretch and that's not "regression to the mean."

 

That's true, it's a bad stretch of play that is really not predictive of much going forward.

 

Nor is it happening as a result in any way of the over performance early on, which is the real point. That's the gambler's fallacy part.

[Sammy Sofa]

Look, we got out of the inning without runs.

 

Ninnies.

 

Tim, seriously, I get where you're coming from, but SOME freaking out is merited at this point because they've played a LOT of [expletive] baseball.

It is both the quantity and nature of the freaking out that has me overcompensating. it is fine to freak out a bit. Don't be completely and totally irrational about it.

 

Personally, I think the difference between hyperbole and the real doom boners is pretty obvious.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Joking about how bad things are >> actually thinking things are terrible for a team with a 5+ game lead > taking out your frustration by griping at people for complaining

[Tim]

Joking about how bad things are >> actually thinking things are terrible for a team with a 5+ game lead > taking out your frustration by griping at people for complaining

How about griping about people griping at people for complaining?

[Sammy Sofa]

Rizzo can't be stopped!

[UMFan83]

I think Willson has had a runner on 3rd for every AB today

[TruffleShuffle]

I feel like Lackey should've been PH for. He's really got only one inning left and they have 3 days off coming up. A real batter leading off the inning seems more valuable than the difference between Lackey and whoever would replace him in the 6th inning.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Willson is so going to deliver a two-run single.

[Tim]

lol - that's the worst hit double of Rizzo's career.

[Sammy Sofa]

Rizzo can't be stopped!

 

LITERALLY.

[weis21]

 

Arrieta's stuff isn't the same as Colon's stuff.

so for some reason arrieta relies on his crossfit membership to be an effective pitcher while no other pitcher needs that?

 

just trying to follow

 

You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?

plz show correlation to insane athleticism.

 

and no horsefeathers colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff.

 

it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now.

 

you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on.

[David]

here's an example of what i was saying the other day...two out rally situations. i never think they're going to turn out well, whether you ask me today or whether you would've asked me when we were like 25-6 or whatever it was.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

The argument is that almost the entire lineup has gone to [expletive] in this stretch and that's not "regression to the mean."

 

That's true, it's a bad stretch of play that is really not predictive of much going forward.

 

Nor is it happening as a result in any way of the over performance early on, which is the real point. That's the gambler's fallacy part.

 

It is all data points. A nine-game poop show from a starter definitely has some effect on his projection going forward. Not enough to overcome all the noise, but dismissing entirely is bad too. Recency bias and status quo bias are both wrong.

[UMFan83]

Aghh we just need that one big hit and can't seem to get it. I have a hard time feeling confidence that this lead will hold for 12 more outs

[Sammy Sofa]

Aghh we just need that one big hit and can't seem to get it. I have a hard time feeling confidence that this lead will hold for 12 more outs

 

Seems like they've had several big hits.

[David]

so for some reason arrieta relies on his crossfit membership to be an effective pitcher while no other pitcher needs that?

 

just trying to follow

 

You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?

plz show correlation to insane athleticism.

 

and no [expletive] colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff.

 

it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now.

 

you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on.

 

i don't think there's much of any reason to think that theory is some kind of crazy nonsense there might be something to it. i definitely don't understand the strong "unfounded, irrational, and dumb" over the top response.

[TruffleShuffle]

2-for-9 with RISP, and one of the hits didn't score anybody.

 

Annoying that it's still a one run game.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

so for some reason arrieta relies on his crossfit membership to be an effective pitcher while no other pitcher needs that?

 

just trying to follow

 

You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?

plz show correlation to insane athleticism.

 

and no [expletive] colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff.

 

it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now.

 

you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on.

 

Last year, every scouting or pitching coach story about Arrieta's explosion into awesomeness came because he got himself into awesome shape, which let made it easier for him to control his explosive arm motion, which is where the awesome stuff comes from.

 

Acting aghast at this is just making you look dumb.

[Gilby]

so for some reason arrieta relies on his crossfit membership to be an effective pitcher while no other pitcher needs that?

 

just trying to follow

 

You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?

plz show correlation to insane athleticism.

 

and no [expletive] colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff.

 

it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now.

 

you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on.

 

Eh, Arrieta's delivery is pretty unique. I'd say it takes more body control for him to command his pitches than it does other pitchers given his pronounced step toward third base.

[Schwarber Fan]

Let's not lose this game with a billion hits

[David]

 

You see a lot of other pitchers throwing 95 mph slider?

plz show correlation to insane athleticism.

 

and no [expletive] colon and arrietta are different pitchers. you are indicating - based on your words - that he needs to be extremely athletic (by the way, is he not?) to "command" his stuff.

 

it's unfounded, irrational, and dumb. just quit now.

 

you are a smart (though often annoying) guy that made a stupid post with a dumb insinuation. just chalk it up as a loss and carry on.

 

Last year, every scouting or pitching coach story about Arrieta's explosion into awesomeness came because he got himself into awesome shape, which let made it easier for him to control his explosive arm motion, which is where the awesome stuff comes from.

 

Acting aghast at this is just making you look dumb.

 

i certainly don't recall that storyline. yes, the story has always been about how great of shape he keeps himself in, but he always had. the breakout happened when he went back to his old delivery in 2014, that the orioles had tried to discourage.

[Tim]

 

That's true, it's a bad stretch of play that is really not predictive of much going forward.

 

Nor is it happening as a result in any way of the over performance early on, which is the real point. That's the gambler's fallacy part.

 

It is all data points. A nine-game poop show from a starter definitely has some effect on his projection going forward. Not enough to overcome all the noise, but dismissing entirely is bad too. Recency bias and status quo bias are both wrong.

Who is showing status quo bias?

 

I assume you mean me. In which case, I challenge you to show where I've made a statement that can't be backed up. It takes more than two bad starts from a pitcher for the recent results to overcome 18+ months worth of results. That is, of course, assuming there is no sign of injury, changes in stuff, etc. Which is the case here - there's no loss of velocity, movement of all the pitches for these guys are similar, etc. They've been missing their spots more frequently the past couple trips through the rotation. It is certainly something to keep an eye on. But assuming this to be anything that is a long term concern at this point is jumping the gun.

 

Except for Hammel. He sucks.

[David]

lackey with some swag

 

let's add some insurance please

[Tryptamine]

I want Lackey back out there in the 7th, even with the 98 pitches

[bcl412]

Aghh we just need that one big hit and can't seem to get it. I have a hard time feeling confidence that this lead will hold for 12 more outs

 

Seems like they've had several big hits.

It does feel like everytime we have a shot at busting a game open we can't do it. Seems at best we can get a 2 run lead lately. A 3-4 run lead could do something to help the staff mentally.