Baez impresses Baez

[davell]

Didn't we literally just go through this with the too many shortstops and too many outfielders? OMG HOW WILL EVERYONE GET AT BATS?!?! Then Schwarber's knee died and having that depth didn't suck at all. This isn't a front office that is going to trade just because talking heads and analysts like Cameron don't know where the playing time will come from.

 

And they're definitely not going to trade a guy making $3m, $4m, $4m, $4m for some horsefeathers lotto ticket pitcher while bench bats cost $5m a year now. Soler produced 0.7 fWAR this year in 264 PA's which means you don't even have to do mental gymnastics to know that at his $3m salary he offered surplus production. His BB% was up considerably and his K% was down 5 points. Those are good signs for a guy getting ready to enter his age 25 season with 4 years of control left and it's also why he's projected at 1.2 WAR next year. What he's shown and his potential upside (I still believe in it) is worth more in actual value than any top 75 horsefeathers kicking pitcher.

 

Are his constant injuries and his health good signs too? We don't HAVE to trade him. But that's not bad value(and it doesn't need to be a prospect, just that value equivalent) If we keep Dex, its not a horrible idea to look at the pitching he can net.

 

If Candelario nets us the same, fine, look at moving him. But, looking at moving Soler isn't ridiculous at all. He's not very important to us, if we keep Dex.

 

Even if he misses 80 games every year (like he did this year) he's still a surplus value for the next 4 years. You won't get that back in trade so yes it's stupid to trade him just because you can. That's why people who win the lottery go broke quickly.

 

You're using .7 WAR as if its some sort of great gauge. Last year, he was at .1......Surplus value on these levels shouldn't even go into the equation. Especially when we have plenty of others who can likely provide that same surplus, in Almora, Candelario, Szczur, maybe Zagunis.

 

You wouldn't be trading him just because you can either. You trade him IF you don't think he'll ever stay healthy, IF you think his defense cancels out a decent amount of his offense, and/or IF the pitcher you'd conceivably be getting in return, is someone you think is a contributor or future contributor.

 

I have no clue what the FO sees at this point on him. If they still love him, he's obviously not likely to be moved at this stage of his value. If not though, grabbing what you can, while you can, is an option. I guess we'll see where they stand on him.

[Cubswin11]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

I could spin it the other way too, why do people the people who think he's incredibly expendable because he's always hurt, hasn't performed yet and a DH only still think we can trade him for value? He has value to me on the Cubs because he still has upside, is youngish, cheap and we can afford to have a lotto ticket on the 25 man because the rest of the roster is so deep and versatile. I'd rather take the gamble he turns out to be something and keep him than trade him for whatever limited return he's likely going to bring right now as the current player he his this offseason. Where he sits now I think he has little value in a trade to us. We can go sign Bud Norris in the offseason if we want to bring in the value Soler is bringing us in a trade.

[Sammy Sofa]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

 

Hey, I'm diplomatic; at this point I don't think he has much value in either situation.

[David]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

 

 

same reason i didn't want to trade baez last offseason

 

the market isn't always right. soler's value is at a low point and he has upside. not to mention the thing most are talking about trading him for, young pitching, is still very overvalued.

[jersey cubs fan]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

I could spin it the other way too,

 

You could but you'd be completely off base and would sound silly.

 

There is a trade him if you can get something argument and a no we can't trade him because he's valuable but won't get us anything argument. The rational one is to consider a trade if you can find something. Preemptively refusing to trade him because you assume you can't get anything is just weird.

 

This isn't like some stock where you choose to sell at the current price and voila he's gone and you're locked in at that price. Nobody is pushing for them to get rid of soler at all costs. Trading Soler is an option the Cubs have when reconfiguring their roster this winter and it's an option they should consider. End of story.

[jersey cubs fan]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

 

 

same reason i didn't want to trade baez last offseason

 

the market isn't always right. soler's value is at a low point and he has upside. not to mention the thing most are talking about trading him for, young pitching, is still very overvalued.

you have no idea what the market is

[Banedon]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

I could spin it the other way too, why do people the people who think he's incredibly expendable because he's always hurt, hasn't performed yet and a DH only still think we can trade him for value?

 

Which scenario is more likely?

 

Guy on 103 win team can't break through because of a high level of talent at every position on the field, and thus has a low value to them, but is valued by other teams looking to fill holes.

 

or

 

Guy holds value to 103 win team but doesn't command much value from other teams.

[David]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

 

 

same reason i didn't want to trade baez last offseason

 

the market isn't always right. soler's value is at a low point and he has upside. not to mention the thing most are talking about trading him for, young pitching, is still very overvalued.

you have no idea what the market is

 

i can speculate as to what it is based on what i see in the media and other transactions/rumors/etc. any conversations we have about trades are exactly that.

[davell]

Has anyone said he's INCREDIBLY expendable? Isn't most of my argument based on us also keeping Dex?

[jersey cubs fan]

i can speculate as to what it is based on what i see in the media and other transactions/rumors/etc. any conversations we have about trades are exactly that.

 

And you're "educated" guess still isn't enough reason to not consider a trade. It would be managerial malpractice to preemptively refuse a conversation.

 

That's the point.

[Cubswin11]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

I could spin it the other way too,

 

You could but you'd be completely off base and would sound silly.

 

There is a trade him if you can get something argument and a no we can't trade him because he's valuable but won't get us anything argument. The rational one is to consider a trade if you can find something. Preemptively refusing to trade him because you assume you can't get anything is just weird.

 

This isn't like some stock where you choose to sell at the current price and voila he's gone and you're locked in at that price. Nobody is pushing for them to get rid of soler at all costs. Trading Soler is an option the Cubs have when reconfiguring their roster this winter and it's an option they should consider. End of story.

Well yeah, no horsefeathers, of course they should see what his market is and MAYBE there's someone who gives them something decent in a trade for him and they jump on it. They should, just like with almost every player, see what other teams would offer for them as basic due diligence in the offseason.

 

And I apologize if I was coming off as saying he was untouchable, that is far from what I think. Maybe I'm wrong, I don't think I am, but I don't see his market offering us the type of return worth getting rid of him vs. the upside reward of keeping him going into next year. It just seems like there are a lot people willing to dump him to dump him regardless of the return, which I believe is poor use of him as an asset and selling way short. I think whatever he brings as a return for us right now could be easily found and had on the scrap heaps of FA, Rule 5 draft or acquired with ancillary minor league players in the system.

[Thrilho]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

 

 

same reason i didn't want to trade baez last offseason

 

the market isn't always right. soler's value is at a low point and he has upside. not to mention the thing most are talking about trading him for, young pitching, is still very overvalued.

 

Say Soler puts up a similar season to this one, except rather than losing time to injury he loses time to Schwarber and Javy. Ends up with 150-200 PAs with a 103 wRC+ and ~.5 WAR. Only now he's had 3 straight meh years, accumulated a mere 2 wins in 4 seasons and has a year less of control.

 

My point is that if you've only got a couple hundred PAs for him on this stacked team now might be the best time to strike. That is, if you think he's no more than a 4/5 OF on this team while other teams view him as more because they don't have our studs.

Edited October 13, 2016 by Thrilho

[badger]

Javy doesn't like that his thread has turned into a debate on what to do with our 4th/5th outfielder next year. Just sayin'

[Tim]

This is clearly an off day. How long until Saturday night?

[David]

i can speculate as to what it is based on what i see in the media and other transactions/rumors/etc. any conversations we have about trades are exactly that.

 

And you're "educated" guess still isn't enough reason to not consider a trade. It would be managerial malpractice to preemptively refuse a conversation.

 

That's the point.

 

And I'm not really deciding on whether the Cubs consider a trade nor am I saying they should refuse a conversation. I'm stating my opinion as to what I'd like them to do based on my educated guesses as to what is out there (and one poster's suggestion - from a writer - that the return would be a Top 75 pitching prospect).

[Thrilho]

Javy doesn't like that his thread has turned into a debate on what to do with our 4th/5th outfielder next year. Just sayin'

Yeah this is my fault. I meant to make a post to say "get out the way yo! Javy's arrived!" And made the mistake of detailing how the other players will be impacted.

[Gilby]

While we're on the topic of next year, is everyone still pretty sure Chapman is just a rental?

 

I don't know what the financial situation looks like, but if we had to pick between extending Chapman or Fowler, I'd probably choose Chapman. I know he's really icky and just recently blew a big save, but god dang do I feel way more comfortable watching games knowing he's lurking in the 9th. I'm also really intrigued by Almora.

[davell]

Javy doesn't like that his thread has turned into a debate on what to do with our 4th/5th outfielder next year. Just sayin'

 

But the thing is, he's kind of the reason we're having this conversation. Its a very real possibility he pushes Zobrist to the OF more often. Potentially making it even harder for a guy like Soler to find AB's.

[Cubswin11]

why do people insist on saying soler is valuable to the cubs but he cannot bring back value in a trade?

I could spin it the other way too, why do people the people who think he's incredibly expendable because he's always hurt, hasn't performed yet and a DH only still think we can trade him for value?

 

Which scenario is more likely?

 

Guy on 103 win team can't break through because of a high level of talent at every position on the field, and thus has a low value to them, but is valued by other teams looking to fill holes.

 

or

 

Guy holds value to 103 win team but doesn't command much value from other teams.

Doesn't it seem like it's both or somewhere in the middle with him? I think it's pretty clear they think he has talent and are willing to give him PAs, but injuries keep getting in the way and not really other talent on the roster. And there's evidence, as David pointed out, through media, chats, etc. that other teams don't seem to really value him. And I know I keep saying it, but we are built differently than almost every other team and more versatile that we can afford to have a roster spot go to him as a lottery ticket when other teams would look at giving him a spot as risky due to the volatility of his injury/performance history. Sure they'd take him for some low-mid level minor league pitcher but they aren't giving up something of value to acquire the risk he has.

[profisme]

This is clearly an off day. How long until Saturday night?

 

1736 minutes until gametime.

[minnesotacubsfan]

This is clearly an off day. How long until Saturday night?

 

1736 minutes until gametime.

 

 

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck

[Bull]

i can speculate as to what it is based on what i see in the media and other transactions/rumors/etc. any conversations we have about trades are exactly that.

 

And you're "educated" guess still isn't enough reason to not consider a trade. It would be managerial malpractice to preemptively refuse a conversation.

 

That's the point.

 

This is all I was saying three pages ago when I got jumped in a back alley and left for dead.

[OleMissCub]

Surprised to not see this made into a gif yet by someone, so I just did it myself. You're welcome.

 

http://i.imgur.com/3CVal2V.gif

[badger]

Obviously some needs to add a fun yeah!! To that gif

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Obviously some needs to add a fun yeah!! To that gif

I'll get to it later