Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings

[Cubswin11]

I'm a bit surprised EJM didn't make his list, considering his past comments on him. Hopefully they'll be a question on him today in his chat.

I think in one of his recent chats he said EJM isn't/wouldn't come close to his top 100 and he wants to see him in, in-game action. I think Law has only seen him in workouts (which he admitted the tools looked good) and gone off 2nd hand reports.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Cubswin11

[toonsterwu]

Law on Torres: "He has a good chance to jump into the top 5 by next year."

 

He also called him a potential superstar.

 

You've got to really buy power development to even get him in the top 5, even if it ends up being a down year. I mean, he doesn't have elite defensive shortstop potential, so everything else has to be developing. Can I see it? Sure, but I'm just not sure I see that happening in one season, but here's hoping Law's right.

 

I mean, a guy like Barreto projects fairly similarly to Torres and is a bit more polished. That said, everyone has their biases and preferences.

[craig]

... I mean, he doesn't have elite defensive shortstop potential, so everything else has to be developing. .....

 

Toonster, you're kind of so-so on Torres's defense. I think some scouts like his defense a lot more than you do. Law is one of them.

[toonsterwu]

... I mean, he doesn't have elite defensive shortstop potential, so everything else has to be developing. .....

 

Toonster, you're kind of so-so on Torres's defense. I think some scouts like his defense a lot more than you do. Law is one of them.

 

I haven't seen many people placing him into say, Lindor category. I can't say I read Law all that much, so maybe he does view it differently (although I don't recall Law thinking of Torres as elite defensively). I mean, Torres, who I am really high on (I think I even made the comment last year that it wouldn't surprise me if he's our shortstop in a couple years, pushing Addison off) largely projects as above average defensively, solid range (maybe a tick improved), good arms and feet), which is very nice, but my previous point was basically that, to be top 5 overall without elite defensive potential, his power is going to really have to take a step forward (doesn't mean I expect Torres power projection to jump, just that it likely needs to start developing) unless for some reason it's a really, really down year in the farm.

[Proven Veteran]

... I mean, he doesn't have elite defensive shortstop potential, so everything else has to be developing. .....

 

Toonster, you're kind of so-so on Torres's defense. I think some scouts like his defense a lot more than you do. Law is one of them.

 

I haven't seen many people placing him into say, Lindor category. I can't say I read Law all that much, so maybe he does view it differently (although I don't recall Law thinking of Torres as elite defensively). I mean, Torres, who I am really high on (I think I even made the comment last year that it wouldn't surprise me if he's our shortstop in a couple years, pushing Addison off) largely projects as above average defensively, solid range (maybe a tick improved), good arms and feet), which is very nice, but my previous point was basically that, to be top 5 overall without elite defensive potential, his power is going to really have to take a step forward (doesn't mean I expect Torres power projection to jump, just that it likely needs to start developing) unless for some reason it's a really, really down year in the farm.

 

Here's what he says:

 

"He's very smooth at shortstop already, with plus hands and a plus arm, showing me in Myrtle Beach's playoff series against Wilmington that he could come across the bag well on a difficult double play."

[toonsterwu]

Thanks. I guess Law does feel differently. Plus hands and plus arm, even with, what, 55 range, would get you a fringe plus defender, so okay. Just haven't seen many people say Torres has a plus arm. What little I saw of Torres last year, kid is really smooth out there. Very good action, can't think of the word I want to say on his feet, but ... uh he's very efficient? with his footwork. I have very little doubt about him at short - I think he's likely to stick through his cost-controlled years, and then how he physically matures becomes the factor, but that's true for most guys.

 

Although I still think to jump into top 5 overall, he'd probably need to show power development.

 

Again, I hope Law is right. I hope my thought of Torres pushing Russell to 2nd comes through (although I doubt it now, that was more predicated on the idea that Castro would stick at short for a couple years, settling in Russell at 2nd, and since Russell's at short now, the established guy usually gets prerogative unless there's a substantial issue).

[dawson1989]

Law does have some really out there rankings on some players. Kevin Newman for instance is in his top 25 yet I haven't read a single other person who mentions him as top 100. He mentions he had Newman as the 2nd best prospect in the draft last year. His ranking comes off as stubbornness. He valued him high in the draft so he's going to put him high in his rankings even though he hit .257 with little power in his first year.

[craig]

Thanks. I guess Law does feel differently. Plus hands and plus arm, even with, what, 55 range, would get you a fringe plus defender, so okay. Just haven't seen many people say Torres has a plus arm. What little I saw of Torres last year, kid is really smooth out there. Very good action, can't think of the word I want to say on his feet, but ... uh he's very efficient? with his footwork. I have very little doubt about him at short - I think he's likely to stick through his cost-controlled years, and then how he physically matures becomes the factor, but that's true for most guys.......

 

You're using words like "fringe" and "likely to stick through his cost-controlled years". You have "very little" doubt, and you "think" he's "likely" to stick. The scouts like Law who rank Torres really high aren't putting in all those cautionary/escape/guarded phrasing.

 

They like him; they are convinced he will play good, asset SS defense. No cautionary caveats. Lindor, maybe not. But I think he's expected to be very much of the Addison Russell type. None of Russell's individual defensive tools graded great, but he graded very well this summer.

 

The "efficiency" you talk about, I think that's the key. That's why Russell is so good, and I think the Torres guys see that in him as well. The "clock" factor, too.

 

You guys are probably too young to remember, but I think Torres like Russell is expected to be more like Rey Sanchez than Shawon Dunston.

[davell]

I don't think there's been anyone questioning his ability to stick at SS since he was signed. I do remember it being questioned back before we signed him. But since, all reports have been positive. There's a large enough gap even between Lindor and being solid defensively. I see no reason currently for Torres' defensive abilities to be construed negatively.

[David]

aaron: Keith- How much of Gleyber Torres’ rating is tied to being a shortstop? As he probably won’t play there with the Cubs already with Russell, how would being at 2nd or 3rd affect his high slot?

Klaw: If he’s truly a shortstop, then that’s how I’ll rate him. Club context does not apply. Otherwise I might downgrade every Rockies’ starter because of what pitching in Denver does, but I treat their guys like I’d treat any other team’s starters.

 

Ed: Nice to Albert Almora back on the list. Would you say he’s progressed well since last year, or is it fair to say with all of the promotions in 2015 that the top 100 this year isn’t rated quite as high as last years?

Klaw: I think both are fair. Promotions really hit the minors hard, so this year’s list is skewed more towards players who are further away or a touch flawed. But he did make some modest progress at the plate, and he could always field.

 

Michael: Do you Arismendy Alcantara turning things around this year?

Klaw: I think he has the ability, but I honestly don’t know what the true reasons were behind his 2015 struggles.

 

Steve: How do you see Ian Happ progressing? I’ve read concerns about his bat missing a lot last season. Any concern there? Is he destined for the OF or can he handle 2B duties at the MLB level?

Klaw: Second base for me. Bat missing meaning a lot of swing and miss? He’s definitely a high walk/high strikeout guy but I don’t think he’s a guy who struggles with contact so much as a guy who likes to work the count a lot and isn’t afraid of striking out.

 

Justin: Is there anything in particular that makes you think Wilson Contreras’s performance last season was predictive progress rather than an aberration?

Klaw: Tools are there. Great swing. Very athletic kid. Can even run a little. Throws well. Receiving is not great. But definitely performance supported by the scouting report.

 

Think I got everything Cubs related

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2016/02/11/klawchat-21116/

[toonsterwu]

Thanks. I guess Law does feel differently. Plus hands and plus arm, even with, what, 55 range, would get you a fringe plus defender, so okay. Just haven't seen many people say Torres has a plus arm. What little I saw of Torres last year, kid is really smooth out there. Very good action, can't think of the word I want to say on his feet, but ... uh he's very efficient? with his footwork. I have very little doubt about him at short - I think he's likely to stick through his cost-controlled years, and then how he physically matures becomes the factor, but that's true for most guys.......

 

You're using words like "fringe" and "likely to stick through his cost-controlled years". You have "very little" doubt, and you "think" he's "likely" to stick. The scouts like Law who rank Torres really high aren't putting in all those cautionary/escape/guarded phrasing.

 

They like him; they are convinced he will play good, asset SS defense. No cautionary caveats. Lindor, maybe not. But I think he's expected to be very much of the Addison Russell type. None of Russell's individual defensive tools graded great, but he graded very well this summer.

 

The "efficiency" you talk about, I think that's the key. That's why Russell is so good, and I think the Torres guys see that in him as well. The "clock" factor, too.

 

You guys are probably too young to remember, but I think Torres like Russell is expected to be more like Rey Sanchez than Shawon Dunston.

 

May be an issue of semantics here. There aren't that many shortstop prospects that definitively project as plus defenders, let alone elite defensive shortstops, and also project as guys that can stick through the position past their cost-controlled years and through their primes. Doesn't mean that there aren't guys who do - it's just the sheer projection of a guy through their prime years at shortstop is inherently a difficult thing to do. A comparative point would be loose body-point analysis as it pertains to the NFL - I recall a guy, I guess it's been close to a decade now, a 6'6" 275-280 pound defensive end who everyone swore would be able to pack on 15-20 pounds and play as a stout 2-gap 5-technique. Could never hold that weight. There was an OT about a decade ago who was around 6'5" 290 with good reach, and everyone believed he'd be able to hold an extra 10 pounds consistently. Had a solid career, but was always around that 290 range. Short of it is, there's strong enough difficulty in any form of projection on kids. Perhaps I'm being quite cautious in saying that I didn't think he would be an elite defensive shortstop, but thought he'd be fine for short - for me, I thought that was actually fairly positive.

 

Anyhow, my initial point was simply that, I think Torres is going to have to show some power development to be ranked a top 5 prospect. We'll see.

 

____

 

There were some folks that really, really loved Kevin Newman out of college last year. Good bat, not much power. Defense at shortstop was a lot more questionable, but a fair amount felt he would be at least average at short, and potentially, above average. Always felt the positive bets on Newman were bets on his hit tool alone being able to carry him far, and I've always been wary of that type of guy, but if you liked him last year, I guess, in a down year, I can sort of get liking him still.

[craig]

...Anyhow, my initial point was simply that, I think Torres is going to have to show some power development to be ranked a top 5 prospect. We'll see.....

 

Yes, agree with your main point. Hard to get top-5 without showing enough power progress to project as a teens-range HR guy.

[Cubswin11]

EJM was on Law's "just missed" list, here's what he said....

 

Martinez was supposed to get something around $10 million in the last international signing period, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the rumored deal never came to fruition and he ended up signing with the Cubs for $3 million in October. He's a toolshed, with great bat speed, raw power and plus speed, but has barely any game experience, with only 46 games in Cuba's Serie Nacional under his belt before he defected. He hit .233/.329/.319 at ages 18 and 19. Now 21, Martinez should be ready to go to high-A, but no one seems to have any feel for how advanced he is as a hitter, and we won't really know until he gets back out on the field. He has the tools of a top-50 or even top-25 prospect, but we need to see if those tools play.

[Cubswin11]

EJM was on Law's "just missed" list, here's what he said....

 

Martinez was supposed to get something around $10 million in the last international signing period, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the rumored deal never came to fruition and he ended up signing with the Cubs for $3 million in October. He's a toolshed, with great bat speed, raw power and plus speed, but has barely any game experience, with only 46 games in Cuba's Serie Nacional under his belt before he defected. He hit .233/.329/.319 at ages 18 and 19. Now 21, Martinez should be ready to go to high-A, but no one seems to have any feel for how advanced he is as a hitter, and we won't really know until he gets back out on the field. He has the tools of a top-50 or even top-25 prospect, but we need to see if those tools play.

 

Also, until given further notice, I motion we refer to EJM moving forward as "The Toolshed"

[Tryptamine]

Hopefully he fairs a bit better than our last tool shed(Junior Lake), wherever he may be.

[David]

hendry and fleita bought their toolsheds at menards and then hired some dudes off craigslist to build them

[CubsWin]

hendry and fleita bought their toolsheds at menards and then hired some dudes off craigslist to build them

One of the greatest things about moving from Chicago to LA, besides the weather, was not having to see any more Menards commercials.

[Sammy Sofa]

PICK THAT BANJO.

[Cubswin11]

Law's top 10 for the system, top 100 ranks in parenthesis....

 

1. Gleyber Torres, SS (15)

 

2. Willson Contreras, C (27)

 

3. Ian Happ, 2B/CF (47)

 

4. Billy McKinney, OF (69)

 

5. Albert Almora, OF (88)

 

6. Dylan Cease, RHP (91)

 

7. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF (Just missed)

 

8. Duane Underwood, RHP

 

9. Eloy Jimenez, OF

 

10. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

[Cubswin11]

Law has Contreras as the #1 catching prospect in baseball, Happ as the #2 2B, Torres as the 6th SS, Jeimer as the #9 3B, and Edwards as the #5 RP