Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings

[David]

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/697492016272433152

 

Who can tell us where we're at?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Cubs are #4.

[David]

That's more horsefeathering like it

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Yeah, no big surprise considering how high he is on some of our prospects (EJM & Contreras come to mind), but still nice to see.

[craig]

He's a big Happ fan, too, and I think he really likes Gleyber also.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The gap between different prospect rankers is amusing to me.

[davell]

Its hilarious to see the descrepancies. I still think 7-10 is where we likely are, plenty of upper level guys that can contribute, plenty of lower level high ceiling types. Very good mixture overall.

[David]

The gap between different prospect rankers is amusing to me.

 

i know it's convenient to say since law is extra high on us right now (and has been in the past...i think he had our system as elite a little before others did 2-3 years ago), but law is prob the one i hold in highest regard since he seems a little more numbers driven than the others. BA had been a distant 3rd, with BP in between, but I'm not sure if those two aren't switched around for me now.

[davell]

Kiley had become my top guy, with Law 2nd(1st again now)Callis going to MLB moved them ahead of BA for me(even with Mayo sucking). BA comes next, then BP, who just keeps losing guys. With KG and Parks, they were on Law's level easily. Sickels and the new FG guy suck.

[David]

Kiley had become my top guy, with Law 2nd(1st again now)Callis going to MLB moved them ahead of BA for me(even with Mayo sucking). BA comes next, then BP, who just keeps losing guys. With KG and Parks, they were on Law's level easily. Sickels and the new FG guy suck.

 

i guess i should give mlb a little more of a shot. has been hard for me to wipe the mayo stink out of my mind.

[Cubswin11]

4. Chicago Cubs

2015 rank: 1

Players in Top 100 (2016): 6

 

They graduated Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell, but are still loaded with talent, albeit most of it unlikely to help before 2017. The system has long been light on arms, but there's some pitching coming if you squint hard enough into the distance.

 

That's exactly what he said about us, fwiw. His team top 10's are out next week.

[SouthSideRyan]

Haha awesome.

[toonsterwu]

The issue I have with ranking us 4th is that you have to completely buy ceiling on guys far away ... and there are very few times where a farm system, as it currently looks, will have multiple guys hit close to their ceilings. It's not impossible, but it's tough sledding to bet that way. That said, Law sort of acknowledges that with his comment (that earliest help is 2017, and that you have to squint to see the pitching). I doubt Law has the Nationals top 3, but the number of quality guys at the top of the system that are close to ready makes it hard to bet against (that said, maybe I'm wrong and Law has them top 3).

 

In some respects, I sort of respect the fangraphs kid for betting against the grain and trying to go with some high floor guys. I really don't have a huge issue with anyone, at least, not enough to rank who I prefer. The fangraphs guys, uh ... forgot his name right now, seems to try and balance things out and go with some high floor guys to mix in there. I think people, including myself perhaps, kept looking for perceived flaws, but he made some very valid points on swings and arm actions. Now, that said, I still completely disagree with the Ryan Williams ranking, and I think BA had him in a more appropriate spot, but everyone has their biases when it comes to these things.

 

Law feels like he falls in love with certain guys, and that can be a double-edged sword at times. I actually like mlbpipeline quite a bit - they do the best job at trying to provide broad and continuous coverage these days, I think. That said, perhaps they try too hard - always found it weird when they rushed to shoehorn prospects into their top 10 rankings after a trade. Can't say I've read BP in awhile, so no clue how it goes there. BA's fine - don't love all their new writers, but it takes time and they still have some solid guys there in Manuel and Glassey (he's still there right?).

 

As for the vast differences in people ranking, I think that's actually quite okay this winter, considering how close things are. As a result, some guys who like certain guys a lot will value those assets a lot more and push certain orgs higher. Eye of the beholder, individual preferences ...

 

Can someone tell me what Law's top 3 are? I'm just mildly curious. I'm guessing Dodgers/Rockies and one more, but not sure which one.

[David]

The issue I have with ranking us 4th is that you have to completely buy ceiling on guys far away ... and there are very few times where a farm system, as it currently looks, will have multiple guys hit close to their ceilings. It's not impossible, but it's tough sledding to bet that way. That said, Law sort of acknowledges that with his comment (that earliest help is 2017, and that you have to squint to see the pitching). I doubt Law has the Nationals top 3, but the number of quality guys at the top of the system that are close to ready makes it hard to bet against (that said, maybe I'm wrong and Law has them top 3).

 

In some respects, I sort of respect the fangraphs kid for betting against the grain and trying to go with some high floor guys. I really don't have a huge issue with anyone, at least, not enough to rank who I prefer. The fangraphs guys, uh ... forgot his name right now, seems to try and balance things out and go with some high floor guys to mix in there. I think people, including myself perhaps, kept looking for perceived flaws, but he made some very valid points on swings and arm actions. Now, that said, I still completely disagree with the Ryan Williams ranking, and I think BA had him in a more appropriate spot, but everyone has their biases when it comes to these things.

 

Law feels like he falls in love with certain guys, and that can be a double-edged sword at times. I actually like mlbpipeline quite a bit - they do the best job at trying to provide broad and continuous coverage these days, I think. That said, perhaps they try too hard - always found it weird when they rushed to shoehorn prospects into their top 10 rankings after a trade. Can't say I've read BP in awhile, so no clue how it goes there. BA's fine - don't love all their new writers, but it takes time and they still have some solid guys there in Manuel and Glassey (he's still there right?).

 

As for the vast differences in people ranking, I think that's actually quite okay this winter, considering how close things are. As a result, some guys who like certain guys a lot will value those assets a lot more and push certain orgs higher. Eye of the beholder, individual preferences ...

 

Can someone tell me what Law's top 3 are? I'm just mildly curious. I'm guessing Dodgers/Rockies and one more, but not sure which one.

 

1. Braves

2. Dodgers

3. Twins

[toonsterwu]

Huzzah.

 

Sickels may not be what he once was, but he was [way] ahead of the curve for a long time on blending stats and scouting reports. Still a valuable opinion on the more mainstream guys. He was McDaniel before McDaniel in the sense that he wrote about a ton of players really well.

 

I like Callis these days, he seems to be a little more of a straight shooter or risk taker or something. Law's always alright. I read them all because it's not a science.

 

You know ... my only issue with Sickels (I don't check that site as much anymore, as it gets messy with all the different posts) is all the bickering between slight grade differences. Now, admittedly, Sickels was one of the first to use grades, which is a nice thing for fans, but with all the other sites betting 20-80 grades now, the whol A to C system seems ... outdated, and the bickering on a B- versus a C+ or whatnot, just seems unnecessary at times.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I doubt Law has the Nationals top 3, but the number of quality guys at the top of the system that are close to ready makes it hard to bet against (that said, maybe I'm wrong and Law has them top 3).

 

He has them #15.

[davell]

The issue I have with ranking us 4th is that you have to completely buy ceiling on guys far away ... and there are very few times where a farm system, as it currently looks, will have multiple guys hit close to their ceilings. It's not impossible, but it's tough sledding to bet that way. That said, Law sort of acknowledges that with his comment (that earliest help is 2017, and that you have to squint to see the pitching). I doubt Law has the Nationals top 3, but the number of quality guys at the top of the system that are close to ready makes it hard to bet against (that said, maybe I'm wrong and Law has them top 3).

 

In some respects, I sort of respect the fangraphs kid for betting against the grain and trying to go with some high floor guys. I really don't have a huge issue with anyone, at least, not enough to rank who I prefer. The fangraphs guys, uh ... forgot his name right now, seems to try and balance things out and go with some high floor guys to mix in there. I think people, including myself perhaps, kept looking for perceived flaws, but he made some very valid points on swings and arm actions. Now, that said, I still completely disagree with the Ryan Williams ranking, and I think BA had him in a more appropriate spot, but everyone has their biases when it comes to these things.

 

Law feels like he falls in love with certain guys, and that can be a double-edged sword at times. I actually like mlbpipeline quite a bit - they do the best job at trying to provide broad and continuous coverage these days, I think. That said, perhaps they try too hard - always found it weird when they rushed to shoehorn prospects into their top 10 rankings after a trade. Can't say I've read BP in awhile, so no clue how it goes there. BA's fine - don't love all their new writers, but it takes time and they still have some solid guys there in Manuel and Glassey (he's still there right?).

 

As for the vast differences in people ranking, I think that's actually quite okay this winter, considering how close things are. As a result, some guys who like certain guys a lot will value those assets a lot more and push certain orgs higher. Eye of the beholder, individual preferences ...

 

Can someone tell me what Law's top 3 are? I'm just mildly curious. I'm guessing Dodgers/Rockies and one more, but not sure which one.

 

1. Braves

2. Dodgers

3. Twins

 

Rockies are 7th, by the way.

[toonsterwu]

Braves I can get. I don't love their system in some respects, as it's fairly risky, but the depth of intriguing quality is tough to overlook in a down year in the farm.

 

Twins ... interesting. The quality at the top seems to be what he is betting on, or he really likes some sleepers in that system.

[toonsterwu]

I doubt Law has the Nationals top 3, but the number of quality guys at the top of the system that are close to ready makes it hard to bet against (that said, maybe I'm wrong and Law has them top 3).

 

He has them #15.

 

Going to be curious what his top 10's look like. Giolito is elite, and then you have Trea Turner/Wilmer Difo that are close to ready, if not ready. Lopez/Fedde seem like they are a year to two away, but both have high ceilings for arms. Cole/Voth are ready arms. Robles looks like he could be really good, but he is far away. There's some intriguing catching prospects. System drops off fast, but putting that at 15th makes me very curious about his Top 10's.

 

In the end, everyone has their biases for certain guys, including myself. I guess he could see Lopez as a bit risky, not love Difo/Turner's ceiling, and as such, drop the system down.

[toonsterwu]

Rockies at 7th eh? Guess I might be extraordinarily high on them. Still, I really like that system, with their blend of ceiling/floor, their blend of positional assets and pitchers. I mean, Jordan Patterson probably ranks in the top 10 for some of the bad systems this winter, and I could see Jairo Diaz pop forward as a surprise impact late inning arm for a year or two. Carlos Herrera is so far off their charts, and yet, I think he could be a breakthrough guy. I love Sam Moll as a late inning arm now that he's in the pen.

[craig]

Law's Cubs:

15. Gleyber Torres

27. Willson Contreras

47. Ian Happ

69 Billy McKinney

88. Albert Almora

91. Dylan Cease

 

As was noted yesterday, he's shockingly high on Torres, Contreras, and Happ, all three. Bump three individuals top-50, two top-27, and you're going to rank the overall system pretty high. Those three guys are the divergence between Law and BA, I think.

 

Being that high on one, not shocking. I doubt other evaluations will go that high on all three, though.

[davell]

I'm a bit surprised EJM didn't make his list, considering his past comments on him. Hopefully they'll be a question on him today in his chat.

[toonsterwu]

He's really buying ceiling on Torres/Happ. It's possible, and as a Cubs fan, here's hoping, but I would certainly get folks wanting to be cautious in buying ceiling that hard. Torres as the 15th best prospect in baseball? He's borderline top 5 in shortstop (granted, 1 and 2 are so far ahead of everyone ... Seager/Crawford ... I would probably go Turner, Barreto, Rodgers for my top 5).

 

Anyhow, if you have 3 guys in your top 50, then yes, ranking the system 4th makes a ton of sense. Here's hoping Law is right.

[BrockLanders]

Law on Torres: "He has a good chance to jump into the top 5 by next year."

 

He also called him a potential superstar.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law has historically been higher on Theo and Jed-led systems. Obviously they've earned a lot of benefit of doubt but just something to note.