soccer soccer soccer

[wolf stansson]

We might get 4 tonight by the time we get into the subs. These old costa ricans are not hanging with the pace.

[bukie]

Really wish they got a 2nd before the half. Now CR gets a chance to regroup and bunker in for a while.

[wolf stansson]

Glad Weah got it. He’s been great.

[UMFan83]

Probably could have helped our GD more but I’ll take 3

points considering the early deficit. CR could have easily drawn a penalty shot late in the first, and they failed to score on a uncontested breakaway so I guess I should be happy.

[bukie]

Second consecutive "just well enough " qualifying cycle, with Mexico at home then at Jamaica next. In a good spot overall with Mexico doing as expected, Costa Rica worse, and Canada and Panama a bit better.

[UMFan83]

If scores hold and Mexico wins tonight I think the US will be 5 points ahead of the cut line for at least 4th

[bukie]

[soccer10k]

Glad we got the 3 points but not the best of performances. We give the ball away way too much. So many bad passes.

 

Just keep winning the home matches and we’ll get enough points to qualify. Get another win and a draw on the road and we qualify easily.

 

Our last round of qualifying in March goes at Mexico, home Panama and at Costa Rica. Would be nice to not need more than 3 points out of that run.

[stitchface]

Glad Weah got it. He’s been great.

 

amazing how much more effective he was with this group as opposed to in Panama. Good effort- such great tempo! Even Aaronson looked off that pace.

 

and for crying out loud, just give the guy who shot it the goal - this desperate review to award own goals is so pointless.

[stitchface]

Glad we got the 3 points but not the best of performances. We give the ball away way too much. So many bad passes.

 

Just keep winning the home matches and we’ll get enough points to qualify. Get another win and a draw on the road and we qualify easily.

 

Our last round of qualifying in March goes at Mexico, home Panama and at Costa Rica. Would be nice to not need more than 3 points out of that run.

 

 

I thought it was pretty damn good - need to be better in the final third - so many poor crosses / runs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Man, that Dest goal.

[UMFan83]

Glad we got the 3 points but not the best of performances. We give the ball away way too much. So many bad passes.

 

Just keep winning the home matches and we’ll get enough points to qualify. Get another win and a draw on the road and we qualify easily.

 

Our last round of qualifying in March goes at Mexico, home Panama and at Costa Rica. Would be nice to not need more than 3 points out of that run.

 

I think we would be happy with 4 points from the next window right? (Mexico and at Jamaica). Just mapping out the last 3 windows:

 

Window 3: vs. Mexico, at Jamaica - 4 points

Window 4: vs. El Salvador, at Canada, vs. Honduras - 7 points

 

If we did that we’d need maybe 1 point in the last window, and I don’t think the above is unrealistic

Edited October 14, 2021 by UMFan83

[soccer10k]

Glad we got the 3 points but not the best of performances. We give the ball away way too much. So many bad passes.

 

Just keep winning the home matches and we’ll get enough points to qualify. Get another win and a draw on the road and we qualify easily.

 

Our last round of qualifying in March goes at Mexico, home Panama and at Costa Rica. Would be nice to not need more than 3 points out of that run.

 

 

I thought it was pretty damn good - need to be better in the final third - so many poor crosses / runs.

 

Maybe all the giveaways are coloring my view of it. It wasn’t bad by any means. Way way better than Panama. Just thought we could have played better. Like you said, need to be better in the final third. Too many attacks halted by poor passing.

[soccer10k]

Glad we got the 3 points but not the best of performances. We give the ball away way too much. So many bad passes.

 

Just keep winning the home matches and we’ll get enough points to qualify. Get another win and a draw on the road and we qualify easily.

 

Our last round of qualifying in March goes at Mexico, home Panama and at Costa Rica. Would be nice to not need more than 3 points out of that run.

 

I think we would be happy with 4 points from the next window right? (Mexico and at Jamaica)

 

4 would be just fine with me. But if we beat Mexico, we should get 6. Even 3 wouldn’t be the end of the world. The window in Jan/Feb is the big one. Home to El Salvador, at Canada, home to Honduras. That’s another where 6 is the bare minimum and 7 or 9 is the goal. 3 the next window, 6 the second one and 3 in the final one puts us at 23. If we get 4 or 6 in the next one and 7 or 9 in the Jan/Feb, we’re basically in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4th place is currently trending at just under 19 points right now, and the only team at that level is Panama, who still has to go to Mexico and the US. One of the central american teams could get hot, but its looking like if the US can manage 4+ points next window then they’ve functionally qualified. Once you're to the point where you can stay above the line with 1 ppg then you need a miracle to miss.

[bukie]

If only the USMNT could have drawn that Panama game they'd be well clear already.

[soccer10k]

4th place is currently trending at just under 19 points right now, and the only team at that level is Panama, who still has to go to Mexico and the US. One of the central american teams could get hot, but its looking like if the US can manage 4+ points next window then they’ve functionally qualified. Once you're to the point where you can stay above the line with 1 ppg then you need a miracle to miss.

 

I'm usually going for what's required for 3rd place. In the Hex, it took an average of 15.2 points for third and 13.2 for 4th, which is 21.2 and 18.4 for the 14 game round. I was kind of figuring it might be on the higher end of those since we're bringing in two worse teams into the qualifying that the better teams would theoretically be able to pick up more points against.

 

UMFan also posted the chart, don't know how legitimate it is, a couple days back that showed our chances for auto qualification based on point totals. 23 points was a 95.6% chance, 22 points was 82.2%, 21 points was 61.4% and 20 was 53.5%. So I've kind of stuck with the 22-23 point range as where we need to get to so we're probably good for 3rd.

[stitchface]

4th place is currently trending at just under 19 points right now, and the only team at that level is Panama, who still has to go to Mexico and the US. One of the central american teams could get hot, but its looking like if the US can manage 4+ points next window then they’ve functionally qualified. Once you're to the point where you can stay above the line with 1 ppg then you need a miracle to miss.

 

I'm usually going for what's required for 3rd place. In the Hex, it took an average of 15.2 points for third and 13.2 for 4th, which is 21.2 and 18.4 for the 14 game round. I was kind of figuring it might be on the higher end of those since we're bringing in two worse teams into the qualifying that the better teams would theoretically be able to pick up more points against.

 

UMFan also posted the chart, don't know how legitimate it is, a couple days back that showed our chances for auto qualification based on point totals. 23 points was a 95.6% chance, 22 points was 82.2%, 21 points was 61.4% and 20 was 53.5%. So I've kind of stuck with the 22-23 point range as where we need to get to so we're probably good for 3rd.

 

it's looking like 4 teams have separated - probably time to root for mexico except when we play them and against panama and canada at all times.

[bukie]

I'd like to see this MMA midfield with a front line of Pulisic/Reyna/Pepi against Mexico next month (and Jamaica?)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4th place is currently trending at just under 19 points right now, and the only team at that level is Panama, who still has to go to Mexico and the US. One of the central american teams could get hot, but its looking like if the US can manage 4+ points next window then they’ve functionally qualified. Once you're to the point where you can stay above the line with 1 ppg then you need a miracle to miss.

 

I'm usually going for what's required for 3rd place. In the Hex, it took an average of 15.2 points for third and 13.2 for 4th, which is 21.2 and 18.4 for the 14 game round. I was kind of figuring it might be on the higher end of those since we're bringing in two worse teams into the qualifying that the better teams would theoretically be able to pick up more points against.

 

UMFan also posted the chart, don't know how legitimate it is, a couple days back that showed our chances for auto qualification based on point totals. 23 points was a 95.6% chance, 22 points was 82.2%, 21 points was 61.4% and 20 was 53.5%. So I've kind of stuck with the 22-23 point range as where we need to get to so we're probably good for 3rd.

 

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I was talking about aiming for 3rd place too. Yes, extrapolating the hex will get you to 21 and there was that table that said 23 was needed for absolute confidence, but thus far it looks like that was underselling the lack of stratification in the central american teams that are keeping any of them from pushing that high. Panama is the only central american team above a point per game and they've had The US, Mexico, and Costa Rica all at home, while getting smacked @Canada and being the only team to lose @El Salvador. This can go the other way, for example if Jamaica can get their full team in future windows they've already gone to Mexico, US, and Costa Rica, but the US also has a 6 point head start there. All that said, another caveat would be that the US hasn't played any of their 3 most difficult games(home/away v. Mexico and @Canada) and if you like Costa Rica you can extend that to 4 with that away game too. However, two of those 4 are in the last window and if they take care of business in the next couple windows those are likely to be low stakes.

[bukie]

Last night, the oldest player in the US starting lineup was 26.

 

The youngest player in the Costa Rica starting lineup was 27.

[soccer10k]

4th place is currently trending at just under 19 points right now, and the only team at that level is Panama, who still has to go to Mexico and the US. One of the central american teams could get hot, but its looking like if the US can manage 4+ points next window then they’ve functionally qualified. Once you're to the point where you can stay above the line with 1 ppg then you need a miracle to miss.

 

I'm usually going for what's required for 3rd place. In the Hex, it took an average of 15.2 points for third and 13.2 for 4th, which is 21.2 and 18.4 for the 14 game round. I was kind of figuring it might be on the higher end of those since we're bringing in two worse teams into the qualifying that the better teams would theoretically be able to pick up more points against.

 

UMFan also posted the chart, don't know how legitimate it is, a couple days back that showed our chances for auto qualification based on point totals. 23 points was a 95.6% chance, 22 points was 82.2%, 21 points was 61.4% and 20 was 53.5%. So I've kind of stuck with the 22-23 point range as where we need to get to so we're probably good for 3rd.

 

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I was talking about aiming for 3rd place too. Yes, extrapolating the hex will get you to 21 and there was that table that said 23 was needed for absolute confidence, but thus far it looks like that was underselling the lack of stratification in the central american teams that are keeping any of them from pushing that high. Panama is the only central american team above a point per game and they've had The US, Mexico, and Costa Rica all at home, while getting smacked @Canada and being the only team to lose @El Salvador. This can go the other way, for example if Jamaica can get their full team in future windows they've already gone to Mexico, US, and Costa Rica, but the US also has a 6 point head start there. All that said, another caveat would be that the US hasn't played any of their 3 most difficult games(home/away v. Mexico and @Canada) and if you like Costa Rica you can extend that to 4 with that away game too. However, two of those 4 are in the last window and if they take care of business in the next couple windows those are likely to be low stakes.

 

Got it. 4 years ago has me a little skittish which is why I’m aiming a bit higher with the point total.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Got it. 4 years ago has me a little skittish which is why I’m aiming a bit higher with the point total.

 

Yeah I don't begrudge anyone being wary about it, especially overall. I think where I try to point out the bright side is when we talk about what a good v. bad window looks like. It seems like people at times can miss that there's a gap between what a reasonable expectation is given the opponents, and what would truly be damaging to their qualification chances.

[bukie]

Got it. 4 years ago has me a little skittish which is why I’m aiming a bit higher with the point total.

 

Yeah I don't begrudge anyone being wary about it, especially overall. I think where I try to point out the bright side is when we talk about what a good v. bad window looks like. It seems like people at times can miss that there's a gap between what a reasonable expectation is given the opponents, and what would truly be damaging to their qualification chances.

Yeah, the USMNT has done exactly what is necessary so far, and the rest of the teams have effectively drawn enough games such that the bar is even a bit lower at this point for qualification. The only real annoying thing thus far is that loss to Panama keeping Panama close, as a draw there would've effectively separated Mexico-US-Canada from everyone else.

[wolf stansson]

I thought it was pretty damn good - need to be better in the final third - so many poor crosses / runs.

I agree. Steffen game sharpness/dumb goal aside, we put more pressure on their bunker than we have against a bunkering team in GGG era. He is extremely easy to coach against, which I think is the most obvious evidence against him not being a great game planner, so breaking a bunker was a good sign.