Minor League Musings

[CubinNY]

The Mets took Carlos Ocampo during the MiLB portion of the rule 5 draft. It’s not not a compliment to the player and the Cubs’ PD to be selected, there’s a big pool of players and some homework is probably required diving so deep into org depth charts. I actually think he’s a decent prospect for a KBO teams thanks to some useful breaking stuff.

 

I'm more interested in who the Cubs picked. Any details from people who know about these things?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Mets took Carlos Ocampo during the MiLB portion of the rule 5 draft. It’s not not a compliment to the player and the Cubs’ PD to be selected, there’s a big pool of players and some homework is probably required diving so deep into org depth charts. I actually think he’s a decent prospect for a KBO teams thanks to some useful breaking stuff.

 

I'm more interested in who the Cubs picked. Any details from people who know about these things?

 

They took Conor Menez from SF, a 26 year old LHRP who has pitched in the majors each of the last 3 seasons(a rarity in the minor league phase of Rule 5, I imagine). As is you can squint and see some appeal, he has an ERA around 3 in 25 MLB innings the last 2 years, but he doesn't throw hard and RH hitters crushed him last year. There's been some chatter that a tweak to his fastball(maybe moving to a 2 seam) or arm angle(which has drifted over the last few years) might help unlock something and he'd be a useful short reliever candidate. He's out of options, so if and when he does get moved to the 40 man he'll have to stick or risk the waiver/outright carousel.

[JeffH]

Connor Menez will get a 4th minor league option in 2022 if he is added to the 40 at some point next season. It has to be used in 2022, however, so it won't be available in 2023 if it isn't used in 2022. - Arizona Phil

[Hrubes20]

Wasn't sure exactly where to put it, but I was looking at the FG IFA board and I was shocked to see the Cubs linked to Fernando Cruz, a Dominican SS that they rank as the 10th best prospect/player in the world not already in a MLB organization. Then I saw that he was a 2024 signee, so it's 2 IFA classes away. 1. How good is this kid if he is already rated the 10th best player/prospect as a 14 year old; and 2. I'm selfishly really sad that an International Draft is almost surely going to be implemented by then.

[Bertz]

 

Essential reading honestly

[Tim]

I must have missed the discussion of these hires:

 

The Cubs confirmed their all-in approach with their latest hires to the major-league coaching staff, adding Daniel Moskos as Tommy Hottovy’s assistant pitching coach. Moskos is a former big-time prospect and a recent Driveline employee who worked as a minor-league pitching coach for the Yankees. Moskos is essentially taking over for Mike Borzello, an experienced coach who spent the last 10 seasons working with pitchers, catchers and the entire game-planning system. The Cubs also added Danny Hultzen, another former top prospect now in his 30s, as a major-league pitching strategist who will absorb some of those game-planning responsibilities. Those hires reflect a commitment to this development plan in the minors and a desire to make sure similar methodologies are taught in the majors as well. The hope is that everyone will be pulling in the same direction, from Wrigley Field all the way to the Dominican Summer League.

[Bertz]

 

For reference, among MLB hitters in 2021...

 

~30% had max exit velos of 112+

 

~40% had max exit velos of 111+

 

~55% had max exit velos of 110+

 

~70% had max exit velos of 109+

 

Given these guys are minor leaguers and are still developing physically you would grade them on a more generous curve. That brings Cassie and Velazquez especially into "holy horsefeathers" territory.

[Bertz]

 

For reference, Baseball Savant had Alex Reyes averaging 2811 rpms on his curve last year and said that was 88th percentile in MLB

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

[CubinNY]

That's a good looking swing.

[Bertz]

[Regular Show]

 

Cubs: Cristian Hernandez, SS (No. 3)

Often compared to a young Alex Rodriguez and Manny Machado, Hernandez was considered the best prospect in the 2020-21 international crop by some clubs and signed for $3 million out of the Dominican Republic. He showed at least solid tools across the board while batting .285/.398/.424 with five homers and 21 steals during his 47-game pro debut in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League.

[CubinNY]

Keith Law's prospect ranking only has Davis in at 28 for Cubs. No others made the top 100.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Nowhere to go but (hopefully) up

[craig]

 

"Ed Blankmeyer has left the Mets organization to become the Cubs’ minor league field coordinator, per his Twitter bio."

 

Interesting move…Both the Cubs and Mets loaded up on teenaged prospects over the past few years, have similarish farms on similarish timelines…I feel like it should be noted Matt Allan, the top pitching prospect for the Mets, just had TJ whereas the Cubs do a good job avoiding it. The TJs from this org are guys like Estrada, McAvene, and Correa who already were leaning towards being relief prospects anyway

 

Interesting that within a month, Blankmeyer has left the Cubs. One of the late-January Athletic articles by Mooney mentioned this. I'd be curious to hear the story on that.

[craig]

Such an undersold frame/athleticism combo…I don’t know if anyone remembers Addison Russell talking about how the Cubs had him lean out (he got big, fast, for the draft) to more naturally gain bulk over time, but Howard’s doing it and without the extra step/s that may or may not lead to burnout…Can’t wait for this dude to shove those A ball stats immediately off the pandemic up many wazoos

 

Hitting may be the hardest skill in pro sports, perhaps second only to quarterbacking. And of course some quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, for example) couldn't hit a lick in the minors. Don't think anybody has ever questioned Howards defense or frame/athleticism, nor of course his motivation or work-ethic or any of that. It's pretty much all and only a question of whether he can hit enough or not. If he can, we've got a player. If he can't, you've got whatever value a good-glove-no-hit guy provides.

 

It will be great if he can develop into an anti-awful hitter, maybe even into a kinda good one. We're minor-league prospects, hope is what we live on!

[craig]

 

I don't know anything, and I'm probably imagining. But it seems to me that some of the new prospects lately have a higher load than I recall back in the Baez/Schwarber/Happ prospect era. I'm probably imagining. But I wonder whether it's coached a little differently now, and a higher load is thought to give better capacity versus the high fastball? I wonder if there tended to be a swing in past that was geared toward lifting keep-the-ball-down pitching, but was variably vulnerable to fastballs up? I wonder if now the coaching, and scouting/drafting too, has more priority on swings that have more ability to sometimes powder some up fastballs? It's not easy, for sure, and perhaps a swing better matched for hard high 4-seamers is more vulnerable to low stuff, etc.. But you'd like to have some guys who, if a pitcher throws up but misses a little bit, of if the hitters swings right or guesses right, that he can hammer some of those, and make pitchers think twice about teasing up there.

[CubinNY]

Hitting may be the hardest skill in pro sports, perhaps second only to quarterbacking. And of course some quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, for example) couldn't hit a lick in the minors. Don't think anybody has ever questioned Howards defense or frame/athleticism, nor of course his motivation or work-ethic or any of that. It's pretty much all and only a question of whether he can hit enough or not. If he can, we've got a player. If he can't, you've got whatever value a good-glove-no-hit guy provides.

 

It will be great if he can develop into an anti-awful hitter, maybe even into a kinda good one. We're minor-league prospects, hope is what we live on!

 

As the guy pounding the drum on not ignoring amateur info, or info in general particularly in regards to these mysterious teens with next to nothing to work with in the pros, another way to look at Howard is that he's never not hit outside of maybe a couple hundred A ball PAs

 

I'm speaking more generally in underrating the frame and athleticism, there's plenty of comments out there and no need to call anyone out, understand that no one questions the defense or makeup since they're essentially beyond reproach

 

Interesting that within a month, Blankmeyer has left the Cubs. One of the late-January Athletic articles by Mooney mentioned this. I'd be curious to hear the story on that.

 

 

That's pretty funny, I wonder for what job...He was at Seton Hall (his alma mater) and then St. Johns for 20+ years before joining the Mets, so maybe he's just an East Coast guy approaching 70 who didn't want to move or do the traveling

It's strange (but not for you) that you appear to be bullish on Howard and bearish on Hernandez.

[craig]

..As the guy pounding the drum on not ignoring amateur info, or info in general particularly in regards to these mysterious teens with next to nothing to work with in the pros, another way to look at Howard is that he's never not hit outside of maybe a couple hundred A ball PAs ...

 

Howard has 302 pro AB, with sub-.600 OPS, and .277 OBP. Hi HS sample is smaller, only 192 AB. And he hit only .396 against mediocre Chicago-area pitchers, .419 as a junior. If his pro sample is dismissable on sample-set basis ("maybe a couple hundred.. PA's"), more so his amateur sample. Either way, his HS sample wasn't especially good, given the level of competition. His summer show-case sample set is smaller yet.

 

Tom, I hope he emerges as a capable hitter, we all do, and his history does not preclude the possibility. But sooner or later, he's going to need to demonstrate that he can actually hit. I hope he will, you expect he will, but thus far there's really not much performance history demonstrating that he has or can. Its hypothetical hopes, obviously no harm in hoping.

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1492242042721767424?t=nXjvskOGBfZKPNObPXx-Kg&s=19

 

Every NL Central team except the Reds is average or worse, which I find interesting. Especially since I tend to think of the Reds as the least smart of the NL Central clubs.

[David]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1492242042721767424?t=nXjvskOGBfZKPNObPXx-Kg&s=19

 

Every NL Central team except the Reds is average or worse, which I find interesting. Especially since I tend to think of the Reds as the least smart of the NL Central clubs.

 

well they did employ boddy as their pitching coordinator until this fall.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's something that feels incomplete about Minor League ERA being the Y axis. Not in a deceptive/misleading way, in thinking about it a minute I don't know if there's a better single metric to use, but without any other context it's not a full picture. Maybe something about command or even control, or somehow accounting for prospect v. non-prospect innings(sure your 25 year old A+ SP might have better odds if he throws 95 w/ a 90 mph slider, but to what end is that representative of a system). I dunno, maybe I'm overthinking it.

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1492242042721767424?t=nXjvskOGBfZKPNObPXx-Kg&s=19

 

Every NL Central team except the Reds is average or worse, which I find interesting. Especially since I tend to think of the Reds as the least smart of the NL Central clubs.

 

well they did employ boddy as their pitching coordinator until this fall.

 

Yeah I don't follow him on Twitter, but when he gets retweeted onto my TL it often seems to be stuff like this where he's not so subtly talking up his work with the Reds. There's absolutely nothing wrong with angling for another job, but he definitely has a vested interest/POV.

 

There's something that feels incomplete about Minor League ERA being the Y axis. Not in a deceptive/misleading way, in thinking about it a minute I don't know if there's a better single metric to use, but without any other context it's not a full picture. Maybe something about command or even control, or somehow accounting for prospect v. non-prospect innings(sure your 25 year old A+ SP might have better odds if he throws 95 w/ a 90 mph slider, but to what end is that representative of a system). I dunno, maybe I'm overthinking it.

 

No I think there's plenty of context that's missing (and like you said definitely not in a deceitful way).

 

1. Whether a team has a large number of pretty good arms vs. a smaller number of elite arms

 

2. How does this chart look for just SP? While there's definitely value to having a bunch of live arms hanging out in the AAA bullpen, most minor league relievers are fungible

 

3. Some accounting for Command/Control. Stockpiling a bunch of Burl Carraways isn't actually that impressive

 

4. Some accounting for age, like you said a 25 year old in A ball, even with very good stuff, is probably not much a guy

[Bertz]

 

These are going to be a couple of large lads by the time they get to Wrigley