Minor League Musings

[craig]

Thanks, Tom. Really fun and helpful just to get a glimpse at those two guys. Seeing the frames move during a swing is helpful to just create a picture, rather than the still shots or face shots or sitting at a desk signing a contract shots.

 

yeah, Quintero's bat seems quick. Hope he can actually see the ball and hit the ball.

 

Getting a glimpse of Ballasteros is more surprising. That's one big barrel-chested guy, wow. I can't ever remember the Cubs adding a guy built like that as a teenager. Probably Schwarber is maybe the only big-dollar guy I can ever remember with a frame like that, for a position guy. Well, I guess now 3rd-round Nwogu, too?

 

I kinda love it. You don't spend big money on a physique like that thinking he can play almost any position on the field. You'd only pay big if you really think he can be a big-bat, and/or has a really good chance to make it as a catcher. If he doesn't make it at catcher, probably 1B or DH are the only fallbacks, where you'd really need to hit. So I'm kinda deducing from the physique that they REALLY love his bat potential, and are pretty optimistic about catching, too. Indeed, the international guy described him as a bat-first guy, and that they hadn't seen a bad AB from him. (Not sure how many they could have ever seen, grant you....). So I kinda like the idea of getting a big, strong, hit-first guy with middle-of-the-order possibilities.

 

I also like the look of that single swing. We see so many Cub hitters who seem to have been scouted and built for a 2-seam keep-the-ball-down world, but end up ill-suited to 4-seam high-fastball world. On that single swing Ballasteros looks like he might perhaps have the bat placement and balance to get a level swing on chest-high stuff, and perhaps the barrel-chested strength to drive some upper-half pitches a long way?

 

Heh heh, I know, we can like totally deduce so much from a single pictured swing a guy had at age 15 against a batting-practice pitch! :):)

[Bertz]

 

I like seeing Weber and Morel get revised up to Tenn after their fairly glowing reviews in interviews from the past few weeks. That actually makes the Tennessee pretty horsefeathering exciting, which I don't think it has been since Javy and co. were there.

[CubsWin]

I like seeing Weber and Morel get revised up to Tenn after their fairly glowing reviews in interviews from the past few weeks. That actually makes the Tennessee pretty horsefeathering exciting, which I don't think it has been since Javy and co. were there.

Yeah, hopefully they get a good sized season of games in.

 

3 top 100 prospects on the same team hasn't happened in a while for the Cubs. Amaya, Davis and Marquez along with another possible MLB starter in Chris Morel is pretty fun. Add in 3 likely MLB relievers in Carraway, Steele and Rodriguez and another possible contributor in Weber and you're looking at 8 guys with a good chance of being future Cubs by 2022 (Morel maybe more of a 2023 arrival if he gets there). There's a chance a 9th could join them in 2B Chase Strumpf.

 

Others to watch are LH reliever Bryan Hudson who reports say has taken a jump in velocity since moving to the pen, RH relievers Ben Hecht and Ethan Roberts have outside chances to become major league relevant by the end of this year. LH fireballing reliever CD Pelham always has a chance, but he's got a lot of work to do with controlling his electric stuff. LH starter Jack Patterson is more a control type pitcher who came out of nowhere as a 32nd round pick, but he had a heck of a 2019 season. It will be interesting to see how he does in AAA. If he makes it to the bigs, it will likely be as a reliever, but who knows. He's sort of a poor man's Cory Abbott, who is a poor man's Kyle Hendricks, lol.

 

Lots to follow in Tennessee this season. (If there is one...)

[CubsWin]

I'm also looking forward to the possible 1st time major league contributions of Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, PJ Higgins, Alfonso Rivas and maybe Trent Giambrone. I expect we'll see more of Tyson Miller and some innings from Justin Steele and Brailyn Marquez this year as well.

 

I'm not expecting it, but it sure would be fun to have Eddy Martinez figure it out and explode in AAA this year. He put up an .854 OPS in the Mexican League this winter. His prospect status has long ago expired, but if there's to be an under-the-radar, underdog type story this season (ala Robel Garcia) his is the one I'd like to see.

[Bertz]

 

This is really great, as you generally expect from Sharma.

 

I'm hopeful that this means for a lot of the Cubs' younger minor league hitters, they didn't truly lose a full year of development. If you're 20, spending a year doing video coaching and getting jacked may not be worse than 120 games at South Bend. In that sense it's a good thing that Iowa and Tenn were barren on the position player side :lol:

 

For pitchers I imagine this means we're going to start seeing guys "disappear" for a week or two in the middle of the season to go work in the lab.

[Bertz]

 

Setting aside the musical choice for a moment...:shock:

[Bertz]

So watching the video a little closer...he should not have included that slider in the hype video. It's kinda garbage-y.

 

That fastball though...even in laboratory conditions...hot damn. Playing with Savant, last year there were only 10 LHP with an average FB better than 94 and with 90+% active spin.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Setting aside the musical choice for a moment...:shock:

I'll give em the benefit of the doubt and offer that maybe the song was a change-up joke?

 

"It seems you're having some trouble

In dealing with these changes

Living with these changes (oh no)

The world is a scary place

Now that you've woken up the demon in me."

[Cubswin11]

This is fun, Davis is gonna be a stud. I think he’s Jayson Werth with elite defense. That finish on the swing is a mirror image.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Keith you got people worked up by repeatedly comparing his lack of power to Juan Pierre, then tried to whitewash it with this generic 'guess I was right your team's prospect wasn't a star' schtick when he doubled that level of IsoP at every level, including MLB.

[Cubswin11]

 

Keith you got people worked up by repeatedly comparing his lack of power to Juan Pierre, then tried to whitewash it with this generic 'guess I was right your team's prospect wasn't a star' schtick when he doubled that level of IsoP at every level, including MLB.

Law kinda sucks, someone should ask him how Hak Ju Lee is doing

[Bertz]

Law is good IMO, but at this point I wouldn't pay just to read his stuff anymore. Whereas my ESPN Insider subscription was like 90% for him. I'm glad he went to the Athletic and not somewhere else, because I wouldn't have followed him. When he was younger he used to get a lot more first-hand looks at guys, so he would buck the consensus more. Now that he's middle aged (and no longer in AZ) he's not really that guy anymore. Eric Longenhagen's that guy now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[craig]

 

Benjamin Rodriguez, says "from being in little league together to being teammates".

Is this a different Benjamin Rodriguez from the velocity pitcher? The pitcher is 21, Cristian is supposed to be 16.

 

Does "from being in little league together to being teammates" make sense if this is pitcher Rodriguez and these guys are 4 years different? Or is there some Age-Gate stuff going on, or what? Heh heh, it's not like I was exactly best buds and in little league together with boys 3-5 years younger or older than me, even if I knew all of my four brothers friends and teammates.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Thats a pretty nasty pitch!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Cubs: Brendon Little, LHP

Little has struggled to maintain the quality of his stuff and throw strikes since the Cubs took him in the first round out of the State JC of Florida (Manatee-Sarasota) in 2017. But that wasn't an issue in instructional league, where his fastball reached 99 mph and his slider hit 87, so Chicago hopes that he has turned a corner.

[Named After Maddux]

 

Cool interview with the director of player development:

 

https://ivyfutures.com/2021/02/14/insights-into-how-the-cubs-plan-to-handle-2021-player-development-a-discussion-with-bobby-basham/

 

“We’re not really competing against what could have been. We’re competing against the other 30 teams and we’re all in the same situation. And we hope we’ve given our guys the best chance to succeed.”

 

I feel like we’ve been early adopters of a lot of the technology that now can be used to monitor guys remotely. We really invested in ‘training up’. What we feel is [that we have] the best coaches in the minor leagues, so we can spread out that work amongst a lot of really, really good coaches and it’s not two or three guys trying to keep track of 200. It’s leveraging our entire coaching staff to really have personal relationships with our guys, as much as possible given our circumstances in this time.” Basham said.

 

“[Concerning high performance] we’re really trying to not be reactive to the baseball calendar but make the calendar work for us and we review this time, whether it’s on the field or off the field as the chance to make gains. And then some guys like having this extended offseason, if you will. It’s going to be a real positive for their career because they’re going to be able to make changes that they otherwise maybe wouldn’t have the time to have that offseason rest and then ramp back up.” Basham said. “They have this extended window where they can gain strength, power, speed, quickness. They can add a pitch, they can work on building strength. They can make some swing adjustments. There are a lot of positives that can come out of this.”

 

Thanks for sharing Tom. It was an interesting discussion with Bobby.

[Bertz]

 

Pretty cool that every level (except Iowa) is going to have at least 3 legit guys in both the lineup and the rotation.

[craig]

Looks like 142 games for AAA and 120 for the other levels

 

Just looked at standings for 2019, South Bend played 135 games, Smokies 139. So 120 games isn't bad at all.

[craig]

https://ivyfutures.com/2021/02/23/quick-hits-with-bobby-basham-cubs-director-of-player-development/

 

Really nice. Some comments on Keegan T, I don't think I've often heard Cubs talk about him. Basham says his slider/cutter and curve have all added power. I am very interested.

 

Comments on Jensen, he says the new curve can be called a spike curve. Also comments on how nasty and how much movement his 2-seam fastball gets.

 

Some supporting comments on Andy Weber

[craig]

The author asked Basham if Jensen's new curve was a spike. Basham kinda said yes, but said that jensen throws everything with so much power that distinguishing spike from normal curve may not be relevant. Either way, it sounds like it's got the hard movement. (And perhaps with that the challenge in throwing it for strikes, I imagine. but that's just me worrying.

 

Bobby added context and an exciting update about Thompson, “I think we’re really excited about Keegan. He looked really good at the Alt site. He added a lot of power to his slider/cutter and this power curveball. And it just [made the Cubs realize] this is a guy who could always pitch and move the ball around and sort of ‘out think’ hitters. Now he’s added some power swinging stuff.

 

I like the idea of a control+smarts pitcher perhaps showing up with perhaps legit stuff.

[Named After Maddux]

The author asked Basham if Jensen's new curve was a spike. Basham kinda said yes, but said that jensen throws everything with so much power that distinguishing spike from normal curve may not be relevant. Either way, it sounds like it's got the hard movement. (And perhaps with that the challenge in throwing it for strikes, I imagine. but that's just me worrying.

 

Bobby added context and an exciting update about Thompson, “I think we’re really excited about Keegan. He looked really good at the Alt site. He added a lot of power to his slider/cutter and this power curveball. And it just [made the Cubs realize] this is a guy who could always pitch and move the ball around and sort of ‘out think’ hitters. Now he’s added some power swinging stuff.

 

I like the idea of a control+smarts pitcher perhaps showing up with perhaps legit stuff.

 

Thanks for sharing

Re: Jensen

I'll add a bit of context since it was hard to transcribe off a Zoom call. It does sound like it is a spike curve, but I don't think Bobby wanted to get too pinned down the specific grips. It behaves like a power curve as you mentioned. The Cubs really like what it adds to his overall arsenal. The 2-seam still is clearly what the Cubs believe is his best pitch, but his upper 90s velo should work very well with the power curve. I wasn't going to put this in the article, but it definitely felt a bit of hyperbole (dreaming) in three plus-pitches. That's a really high bar to hit. But he could feature multiple plus pitches in isolation (2-seam and maybe slider). If the fourseam and power curve work off each other then those should be average or better pitches. Basham said the changeup is coming along. But in total, the Cubs are high on Jensen and unlike most teams, they believe in the 2-seam/sinker. He will be a fun guy to watch this year.

 

Re: Thompson

This totally surprised me, but it sounds like something to watch this spring. I've always pegged him as a BOR arm (and I still think he is), but with the backdrop that I didn't think he'd succeed well in relief. If he's showing power breaking stuff, I'm much more encouraged that relief is an option if needed.

 

Glad you enjoyed the article! I have some other fun discussions coming up.

[craig]

It would sure be fun if the rotation prospects had good years, and if we went into next winter feeling like we had a flock of options, both for highish-end guys, but also as 6th-7th-8th guys who can come up at any time, and actually have a chance to be good.

 

An ideal:

Hendricks

Alzolay

Davies => big-ticket big-stud FA

Arrieta => Brailyn. Brailyn has a successful season, and we are happy to plan him in as a high-ceiling stud prospect.

Williams => System guy from the pool. The pool could include Williams himself, Mills, Jensen, Abbott, RThompson, KThompson, Miller, etc.

 

Obviously the preferred would be for Alzolay to look good, and for Brailyn and Jensen to BOTH look like high-ceiling stud starters. But I think it would be super nice to have a stockpile of options guys who aren't fringy talents, but who are legit talents; who we'd be more than comfortable using to support pennant runs; who would have high trade-value to other teams looking for good young pitching; etc.

 

But I kinda want a good collection, so that Hoyer can feel comfortable going after a single high-end star FA pitcher, and figure our prospects can fill out the rest. And perhaps still have moneys shifting from pitching to position players.

[Bertz]

It would sure be fun if the rotation prospects had good years, and if we went into next winter feeling like we had a flock of options, both for highish-end guys, but also as 6th-7th-8th guys who can come up at any time, and actually have a chance to be good.

 

An ideal:

Hendricks

Alzolay

Davies => big-ticket big-stud FA

Arrieta => Brailyn. Brailyn has a successful season, and we are happy to plan him in as a high-ceiling stud prospect.

Williams => System guy from the pool. The pool could include Williams himself, Mills, Jensen, Abbott, RThompson, KThompson, Miller, etc.

 

Obviously the preferred would be for Alzolay to look good, and for Brailyn and Jensen to BOTH look like high-ceiling stud starters. But I think it would be super nice to have a stockpile of options guys who aren't fringy talents, but who are legit talents; who we'd be more than comfortable using to support pennant runs; who would have high trade-value to other teams looking for good young pitching; etc.

 

But I kinda want a good collection, so that Hoyer can feel comfortable going after a single high-end star FA pitcher, and figure our prospects can fill out the rest. And perhaps still have moneys shifting from pitching to position players.

 

Yeah, I think if we don't want the MLB team to take more of a dip than it already has we need to hit November 1st next year with 3 starters we feel good about, and enough depth that we're not worried about the 5th spot and beyond.

 

Payroll next year currently stands at $80ish million. So even if PTR merely holds it flat from this season, that's a little less than half of what it's at right now. Rizzo/Baez/Bryant need to be replaced, and in this scenario we need another starter too, but I'm not worried about doing that with $80-100M to play with.