Minor League Musings

[craig]

...Yeah, I think if we don't want the MLB team to take more of a dip than it already has we need to hit November 1st next year with 3 starters we feel good about, and enough depth that we're not worried about the 5th spot and beyond.....

 

Nice concise way. Exactly.

 

....Payroll next year currently stands at $80ish million. So even if PTR merely holds it flat from this season, that's a little less than half of what it's at right now. Rizzo/Baez/Bryant need to be replaced, and in this scenario we need another starter too, but I'm not worried about doing that with $80-100M to play with.

 

Exactly. I'm kinda figuring there should be capacity to add one big-ticket rotation starter.

 

And I'm hoping they'd have capacity to sign four variably big-ticket hitters, basically one more than what we've got now.

-*IF* Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo take up 3 of those 4 contracts, there might still be space to add one more.

-And for each of those three who doesn't come back, that just frees up cash to sign somebody else good from outside.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Wow

[Named After Maddux]

 

Wow

That surprises me, but it is so fascinating that it’s Gammons who wrote this. He’s so connected with Theo Epstein that I’m legitimately curious if it was Theo that mentioned that. It’s still hard for me to believe this, but Gammons isn’t known for sensationalizing things. Did anyone have any thoughts about him confusing a comment said to him? Like if he extrapolated that the Cubs really liked Yorke and had him high on their board? I dunno.

 

I do like Nick Yorke as a prospect. He tore up instructs and this is guy where the rankings just hadn’t caught up with where some teams had him. However, I’m very glad Howard landed with the Cubs. I think I would have been speechless for awhile if the Cubs had selected Yorke instead of Mitchell, PCA, Bitsko, Soderstrom, and even Austin Wells.

 

This is a very different situation from 2010 (Yorke is a very good prospect), but 22 year old me did NOT take the Hayden Simpson pick well.

[CubsWin]

...Yeah, I think if we don't want the MLB team to take more of a dip than it already has we need to hit November 1st next year with 3 starters we feel good about, and enough depth that we're not worried about the 5th spot and beyond.....

 

Nice concise way. Exactly.

 

....Payroll next year currently stands at $80ish million. So even if PTR merely holds it flat from this season, that's a little less than half of what it's at right now. Rizzo/Baez/Bryant need to be replaced, and in this scenario we need another starter too, but I'm not worried about doing that with $80-100M to play with.

 

Exactly. I'm kinda figuring there should be capacity to add one big-ticket rotation starter.

 

And I'm hoping they'd have capacity to sign four variably big-ticket hitters, basically one more than what we've got now.

-*IF* Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo take up 3 of those 4 contracts, there might still be space to add one more.

-And for each of those three who doesn't come back, that just frees up cash to sign somebody else good from outside.

There's an interesting list of "big money" FA starters available next off season, though I'm not sure how many make it to market. Seems like you'll have your choice of signing older studs to shorter, but still expensive contracts or going long and tall on the younger arms.

 

Max Scherzer will be 37.

Justin Verlander will be 39.

Zach Grienke will be 38.

Clayton Kershaw will be 34.

 

Lance McCullers will be 28.

Daniel Norris will be 28.

Dylan Bundy will be 29.

Trevor Bauer (if he opts out) will be 31.

Eduardo Rodriguez will be 28.

Marcus Stroman will be 30.

 

There are a lot of lesser but still solid pitchers available as well. Robbie Ray, Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Andrew Heaney, Michael Pineda, (Zach Davies), Drew Smyly and Jon Gray.

 

Plenty to choose from there.

 

Best case scenario, of course, is Alzolay performs well and Marquez and Jensen break out big time such that the Cubs have a lot of confidence slotting them in the rotation with Hendricks. As Craig previously mentioned, that would leave the 5th spot for any one of the BOR internal options like Mills, Abbott, K. Thompson, R. Thompson and Miller.

 

Along with possible extensions for current Cubs and the ridiculous list of position player FAs Lindor, Correa, Freeman, Seager, Story, Conforto and a possible reunion for DH Jorge Soler (wouldn't that be fun...), this off season should be veeeeerrry interesting.

[Named After Maddux]

It fits with the timeline, but it appears that April 1st is the report date for the minor league players not already in big league camp.

 

AA and A+/A games start May 4th. So it'll be a quick turnaround. I don't know how they could have realistically done any different with the big league players there till the end of March and the facilities needing to be cleaned, but it still puts a lot of pressure on minor league players again.

[Bertz]

It fits with the timeline, but it appears that April 1st is the report date for the minor league players not already in big league camp.

 

AA and A+/A games start May 4th. So it'll be a quick turnaround. I don't know how they could have realistically done any different with the big league players there till the end of March and the facilities needing to be cleaned, but it still puts a lot of pressure on minor league players again.

 

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine.

 

Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good:

[Named After Maddux]

It fits with the timeline, but it appears that April 1st is the report date for the minor league players not already in big league camp.

 

AA and A+/A games start May 4th. So it'll be a quick turnaround. I don't know how they could have realistically done any different with the big league players there till the end of March and the facilities needing to be cleaned, but it still puts a lot of pressure on minor league players again.

 

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine.

 

Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good:

 

I think so too. I haven't heard yet from anyone if they're just going to be doing a ton of piggybacking, but It'd still bet on that as the plan. That would also allow the development staff to keep building out repertoires. Like, Michael McAvene may end up in the pen someday and some organizations would just put him there while accelerating his development, but he's coming into ST with 5 pitches (4s FB, 2s FB, SL, CU, and a new spike curve). There's a whole bunch of pitchers that have been working on pitch design during the shutdown. I think there's just a whole lot of pitchers on each staff going for 2-4 innings through May and June.

 

And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too.

[Bertz]

It fits with the timeline, but it appears that April 1st is the report date for the minor league players not already in big league camp.

 

AA and A+/A games start May 4th. So it'll be a quick turnaround. I don't know how they could have realistically done any different with the big league players there till the end of March and the facilities needing to be cleaned, but it still puts a lot of pressure on minor league players again.

 

I wonder if innings are going to be so light for guys that it's plenty of time to ramp up. We know hitters only need ~2 weeks, and that the reason ST is so long is for SPs. But if teams are going to limit minor league SPs to 3-4 innings at the start of the season anyway, maybe a month is fine.

 

Also, I was very slow on the uptake and didn't realize Ivy Futures was yours. Really good stuff, I've enjoyed everything I've read there so far! :good:

 

I think so too. I haven't heard yet from anyone if they're just going to be doing a ton of piggybacking, but It'd still bet on that as the plan. That would also allow the development staff to keep building out repertoires. Like, Michael McAvene may end up in the pen someday and some organizations would just put him there while accelerating his development, but he's coming into ST with 5 pitches (4s FB, 2s FB, SL, CU, and a new spike curve). There's a whole bunch of pitchers that have been working on pitch design during the shutdown. I think there's just a whole lot of pitchers on each staff going for 2-4 innings through May and June.

 

And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too.

 

The pitch design stuff is fascinating. It's inevitable that one of these guys who posted their eye-popping Driveline data are going to be able to fully translate it onto the field. Like if Ethan Roberts or Brendon Little are 90% of what they looked like on Instagram this past year, we're going to really have something. Hit on a couple of these guys and the farm quickly and suddenly takes a huge step forward.

[craig]

..And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too.

 

Hey, that's cool! I hadn't realized that either! Very nice. I've enjoyed your articles and insights from coaches and players. Nice.

 

...... Like, Michael McAvene may end up in the pen someday and some organizations would just put him there while accelerating his development, but he's coming into ST with 5 pitches (4s FB, 2s FB, SL, CU, and a new spike curve). There's a whole bunch of pitchers that have been working on pitch design during the shutdown.....

 

I'm guessing you maybe talked about McAvene with Basham? Thanks for info here. Heh heh, I was hoping to get some more insights on specific guys! Maybe articles to be written later? :):):). Any other scoop on McAvene you might want to share?

 

Did you get any insights from him on Clarke? He had some really nice numbers in brief Eugene debut, but with a glimpse of a perhaps very different profile. I've gotten the sense that Dorey thinks Clarke has a chance to be good, but scouting comments are rare and may not reflect what he throws now. Pre-draft, pretty much large man with a curve. But an update on what he is throwing now would be interesting. Is he a big curve, slow curve, spike curve, or several variants? Fastball 2 seam, 4-seam, or both? An additional pitch he's added to support starting-rotation profile? I just don't know much. Or whether he's strictly a reliever, or has perhaps the control to be a rotation candidate?

 

And then there's the never mention 5th-rounder Burgmann. Longenhagen had him top-40 last June, ahead of guys like Steele, Clarke, Herz, and Little. Made reference to him throwing 95 and having touched 97. I suspect some of Longenhagen's observations were impacted by seeing some guys last spring; and perhaps not having seen others. (So maybe he saw Burgmann and liked what he saw; but didn't actually see Herz or Clarke throw?).

[Named After Maddux]

..And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too.

 

Hey, that's cool! I hadn't realized that either! Very nice. I've enjoyed your articles and insights from coaches and players. Nice.

 

 

I'm guessing you maybe talked about McAvene with Basham? Thanks for info here. Heh heh, I was hoping to get some more insights on specific guys! Maybe articles to be written later? :):):). Any other scoop on McAvene you might want to share?

 

Did you get any insights from him on Clarke? He had some really nice numbers in brief Eugene debut, but with a glimpse of a perhaps very different profile. I've gotten the sense that Dorey thinks Clarke has a chance to be good, but scouting comments are rare and may not reflect what he throws now. Pre-draft, pretty much large man with a curve. But an update on what he is throwing now would be interesting. Is he a big curve, slow curve, spike curve, or several variants? Fastball 2 seam, 4-seam, or both? An additional pitch he's added to support starting-rotation profile? I just don't know much. Or whether he's strictly a reliever, or has perhaps the control to be a rotation candidate? .

 

Hey hey! Thanks. So I had a couple insights from Basham, which has made me look into more things.

Bobby mentioned a bit more about players but they were pretty vanilla comments. They’re really high on the shortstops they’ve brought in recently.

 

With McAvene, I heard that he was one of the guys building out repertoires like Riley Thompson. So I reached out. Michael was nice and actually just walked me through what he was throwing. I asked if I could share and he gave me the go ahead. I think the article is set to go out Friday. He was a natural fit for that power curve with the four seam. But the 2-seam is still more confirmation the Cubs believe in that pitch.

 

Clarke is an interesting dude. He’s one I’m going to try to dig into more. He’s someone I’m hoping to have on for an interview.

 

Luke Little and I just chatted the other day. He had a non-injury setback in instructs so he only got two bullpens with the pitching coordinators, but said “yes” he’s working on a spike curve and a change up.

 

Let me know who you’d like me to try to dive on in more!

[Bertz]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-first-2021-spring-training-workout

 

Speaking of pitch design, one thing I thought was interesting is that the Yankees just opened their own pitch lab (called the "Gas Station," which I hate to admit I love). The Yankees are an analytics heavy team and obviously not light on resources, so it's interesting to me that they're rolling this out two years after the Cubs.

 

Being two years behind on having a dedicated building doesn't mean they're two years behind on concepts, but add this to the list of indications that the Cubs might be ahead of most of the league on this stuff.

[craig]

....

With McAvene, I heard that he was one of the guys building out repertoires like Riley Thompson. So I reached out. Michael was nice and actually just walked me through what he was throwing. I asked if I could share and he gave me the go ahead. I think the article is set to go out Friday. He was a natural fit for that power curve with the four seam. But the 2-seam is still more confirmation the Cubs believe in that pitch.

 

Thanks, I'll look forward to the article.

*I assume the trick for him, really, is going to be consistent-enough ability to repeat delivery and locate strikes.

*A lot of the media scouting, I think, tends to instinctively project hard-throwing power guys with some sharp stuff, but with control challenges, as ultimately becoming bullpen guys. There is good reason for that, I totally get it.

*But I'd like to hope that some of the Cubs bigger arms will be able to cobble together enough control/command/consistency to become 150-inning starting pitchers, not all 60-inning relievers. Brailyn, Jensen, McAvene, Riley Thompson, Alzolay too, all of those good-arm guys have some control questions, and I think media rankings tend to profile most, perhaps all of them, kinda in the bullpen direction. Or at least have enough doubts about their capacity to throw rotation strikes to downgrade their rankings accordingly. Clarke has also been kinda projected as relief, since that's what he did in college, and since pre-Covid was only recognized as being a 2-pitch guy. Other than the Abbott/Keegan types, Kohl Franklin and Gallardo seem to be the only guys who are consistently projected as as starter profiles, and obviously Gallardo is projected as lacking the power velo or spins to project as a high-end guy.

 

....Clarke is an interesting dude. He’s one I’m going to try to dig into more. He’s someone I’m hoping to have on for an interview.

 

....Let me know who you’d like me to try to dive on in more!

My interest for now would be primarily in pitchers. Pitchers can do stuff in pitch-lab through Covid, and work on specific pitches. Not sure what hitters can actually say they've been working on, without live pitching to have faced.

 

I'd be interested in:

1. Matt Dorey, and then ask him mostly about guys outside of the more talked-about top-10. IN one of his radio interviews, Dorey was very willing to talk about specific players, if only the interviewer asked; but naturally the interviewer rarely went outside the top ten. So I'd love to hear his comments on McAvene, Clarke, Burgmann, Cam Sanders, Ethan Roberts, Gallardo, Herz, Schlaffer, Estrada, Cruz, Gallardo, Ben Rodriguez, Manny Rodriguez. The other more vague question I'd be interested in asking him is, "My readers have an understanding of how pitch-lab resources can help to optimize arm slot, grip, spin, and pitch shape. But can you explain how you and the pitch-lab can help guys whose stuff and spin is excellent when they are on, but where control and consistency is really the bigger challenge?"

 

2. Most of those I'd be interested in contacts. But I imagine some of those might be easier to have intereviews with guys who have pitches a little bit more. So some of the more college-y guys like Clarke, Burgmann, Sanders, and Roberts.

 

3. Schlaffer I think would be an interesting one. Being a Chicago-area kid, I'd think he might be a fun and interesting interview and article. Longenhagen referred to him as having "great arm speed", and being lanky and projectable, but with a kinda violent delivery back in HS, and already getting up to mid-90's just before the draft, and 93-95 the one inning in summer that Eric saw him. I think he'd be a really interesting guy to talk to. "How much good muscle do you think you've added since HS?" "there were reports of some mid-90's back in draft spring/summer; is that true? If so, are you able to do that a little more consistently, or with better control now? Or maybe you've added a little bit more since then?" "There were reports that you had maybe some violence in your delivery back in your draft spring/summer. Have you and the Cubs modified your delivery very much over the last 18 months, and if so how has that maybe helped your control or the movement on your pitches?" Those might be some of the types of questions I'd be curious about."

 

4. I'm quite curious about Cam Sanders. He seems kinda Maples-esque in being on the far-extreme of wild. As a college sophomore, he walked 50 guys in 44 innings. He had a 2.94 ERA at South Bend, really good. At South Bend in 19, his BB/9 was 4.72, bad by any standards, but his first time under 5.7 BB/9 at any level. He also had piles of wild pitches and hit batters, so even with the walk reduction, he's still pretty obviously on the extreme control-challenged end of the wildman spectrum. He had some flukey profile at South Bend, the high walks and surprisingly quite a few HR's, and not all that many K's either, but low hits allowed. Anyway, I get the sense that he's got some good velo and excellent stuff, I'm guessing a lot of natural movement on his fastball probably accounts for why throwing strikes is so hard for him, but also why hard contact is kinda hard against him, too. Anyway, I'd love to have an interview with him. "Obviously you've got some big-league stuff and movement. Are there things you and the pitch lab have done to try to increase your consistency? Any little cues or triggers to keep your delivery locked in? Do you throw both 4-seam and 2-seam fastball? If so, how much velocity difference do they have? Do you find one a little easier to control?" I guess I'm really interested in him and McAvene because they entered the system on the variably wild end, Cam particularly. We all get that pitch lab stuff can help adjust grips and spins and stuff. But I'm not sure I get how much, or how, it can developmentally or mechanically help to reduce wildness. So anybody who might be able to speak into that part of the developmental equation, I think would be fun.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brennen won’t be the only prospect NRI:

 

[craig]

....And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too...

 

I just listened during lunch to your Herz interview. Hadn't seen it previously. That was really good. Thanks!

 

Are you going to post the Basham interview?

[Named After Maddux]

....And thanks! I'm having a blast working on the site. I've learned a lot. It's been very cool to connect with the players, front office people, and other bloggers too...

 

I just listened during lunch to your Herz interview. Hadn't seen it previously. That was really good. Thanks!

 

Are you going to post the Basham interview?

 

Thanks!

Bobby said he'd be willing to come on for an interview with articles, but he didn't want to come on for a podcast at this time.

So no podcast episode, unfortunately.

[craig]

https://twitter.com/LoganWhaleyMLB/status/1365135898363404288?s=20

 

I don't think the Cubs have 30 prospects better than Weber :dontknow:

 

Dorey reported that he's gotten stronger. Can't hit HR without some strength, but can't hit HR's without hitting the ball, either. Obviously he'll need to hit more than the 3HR he hit at South Bend in 2019.

 

They're all snowflakes, I get that. But I wonder if Bote doesn't give some analogy? In his age 21-22-23 seasons in the minors, he hit 4, 6, and 7 HR. Now we know he's got plenty of power.

[Named After Maddux]

https://twitter.com/LoganWhaleyMLB/status/1365135898363404288?s=20

 

I don't think the Cubs have 30 prospects better than Weber :dontknow:

 

Dorey reported that he's gotten stronger. Can't hit HR without some strength, but can't hit HR's without hitting the ball, either. Obviously he'll need to hit more than the 3HR he hit at South Bend in 2019.

 

They're all snowflakes, I get that. But I wonder if Bote doesn't give some analogy? In his age 21-22-23 seasons in the minors, he hit 4, 6, and 7 HR. Now we know he's got plenty of power.

 

Especially if the reports of Weber getting stronger are true, a decent number of those 36 doubles will make their way over the fence. I don't think he grows into anything crazy, but maybe average power? Fangraphs has that as 15-18 home runs. That seems possible if things break right.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

[CubinNY]

that's a quick bat.

[Named After Maddux]

Sounds like MLB Pipeline is joining Keith Law (8th) and BA (25th) in listing Yohendrick Pinango ("around the middle of the list") as a Top 30 Cubs prospect when the list releases in a couple of weeks. They're doing it by division and the NL Central comes out last apparently.

[craig]

Sounds like MLB Pipeline is joining Keith Law (8th) and BA (25th) in listing Yohendrick Pinango ("around the middle of the list") as a Top 30 Cubs prospect when the list releases in a couple of weeks. They're doing it by division and the NL Central comes out last apparently.

 

I'm glad to hear some scouting-community consensus that Pinango has a chance to be good. I infer that based on camp or video glimpses, or just on 2nd-hand from Cubs personnel or from scouts, that media people perceive Pinango to have some potential to hit with some adequate power.

 

Given how hard hitting is, I'll take any possibility of a true-blue hitter that we can find, if he's got at least a chance to be OK power-wise.

[Bertz]

 

Not nearly as scary or ominous as it sounds on first blush

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

Not nearly as scary or ominous as it sounds on first blush