Minor League Musings

[Regular Show]

See, I'd say that the most likely way to reach the majors is for injuries to the starters. But I'm drinking gin tonight, so maybe that makes me a different kind of drunk. :wink:

 

Was Cubbie Swagger (or whatever his name was) before your time?

 

Yes, most of the random posters you guys bring up are before my time here lol.

[Tim]

 

Was Cubbie Swagger (or whatever his name was) before your time?

 

Yes, most of the random posters you guys bring up are before my time here lol.

Ah

 

One of the many mountains he chose to die upon was that different types of alcohol made you different types of drunk.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Was Cubbie Swagger (or whatever his name was) before your time?

 

Yes, most of the random posters you guys bring up are before my time here lol.

Ah

 

One of the many mountains he chose to die upon was that different types of alcohol made you different types of drunk.

A LOT of people I know feel the same way. Had some pretty brutal arguments about it.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

 

What a horsefeathering great offseason

 

[David]

not that i care all that much about these minor league dorks, but it would seem that the fact that he's still active at all would be an indication that it's not that serious an injury

[Sammy Sofa]

Theo gonna leave the cupboard legitimately as bare as everyone claimed it was when he took over.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

not that i care all that much about these minor league dorks, but it would seem that the fact that he's still active at all would be an indication that it's not that serious an injury

 

I'll pick on David since he's far from the worst offender, but the uptick of people in the minor league forum loudly proclaiming how much they don't care about the minor leaguers(or worse, loudly claiming no one should) is weird. It's okay to like prospects even when the team is good, and even if there isn't a system full of Kris Bryants to follow. If that's not your thing that's fine, the entire forum is partitioned off for your benefit!

[David]

not that i care all that much about these minor league dorks, but it would seem that the fact that he's still active at all would be an indication that it's not that serious an injury

 

I'll pick on David since he's far from the worst offender, but the uptick of people in the minor league forum loudly proclaiming how much they don't care about the minor leaguers(or worse, loudly claiming no one should) is weird. It's okay to like prospects even when the team is good, and even if there isn't a system full of Kris Bryants to follow. If that's not your thing that's fine, the entire forum is partitioned off for your benefit!

 

active topics for life

 

if the prospects were actually good i wouldn't call them dorks

 

for now they are all dorks

[jersey cubs fan]

not that i care all that much about these minor league dorks, but it would seem that the fact that he's still active at all would be an indication that it's not that serious an injury

 

I'll pick on David since he's far from the worst offender, but the uptick of people in the minor league forum loudly proclaiming how much they don't care about the minor leaguers(or worse, loudly claiming no one should) is weird. It's okay to like prospects even when the team is good, and even if there isn't a system full of Kris Bryants to follow. If that's not your thing that's fine, the entire forum is partitioned off for your benefit!

 

active topics for life

 

if the prospects were actually good i wouldn't call them dorks

 

for now they are all dorks

I think TT is conflating caring about with being excited about.

[CubsWin]

The latest reactions to prospects at instructs from AZ Phil:

 

As far as the position players are concerned, I would say the top dozen at Instructs have been:

 

1. Miguel Amaya, C - outstanding all-around catching prospect with emerging plus HR power

2. Nico Hoerner, 2B-SS - plus bat-speed with a power-type swing-path, uses the entire field foul line-to-foul line, has above-average speed and is a savvy baserunner, is a solid middle-infielder but isn't throwing overhand at Instructs (has been tossing the ball underhanded only)

3 Cole Roederer, CF-LF - really good hitter with HR power and is OK in CF but is best in LF

NEXT THREE:

4. Brennen Davis, CF - raw five-tool OF needs reps (and must stay healthy) but he put on muscle during off-season

5. Aramis Ademan, SS - has plus bat speed and is a solid all-around defensive SS but was overmatched at Hi-A in 2018

6. Jared Young, 1B-LF - best pure hitter at Instructs but is limited to 1B-LF

NEXT THREE:

7. Nelson Velazquez, CF - has mechanical issues with stride & swing but has big-time HR power and can play all three OF slots

8. Christopher Morel, SS-3B - high-energy player with plus bat speed & plus arm but he has problems maintaining arm slot (tends to drop to sidearm)

9. Jimmy Herron, CF - rumored to need TJS last June but didn't and no problems with arm are evident now and he shows improved strength & HR pop

NEXT THREE:

10. Andy Weber, 2B - lanky infielder with soft hands and a good hitter, he has worked-out a bit at SS but 2B is his best position

11. Jonathan Soto, C - clearly the next-best catching prospect behind M. Amaya

12. Carlos Morfa, RF - EXTREMELY raw but combines speed, arm, and plus HR power

 

OTHER OBSERVATIONS:

 

Delvin Zinn and Levi Jordan project as utility infielders, but both work hard and are fundamentally sound in all phases of the game.

 

Alexander Guerra has plus HR power and is a solid receiver and should be the #1 catcher at South Bend in 2019

 

Edmond Americaan is a toolsy CF with a solid line-drive stroke and above-average arm and speed, and right now he is probably ahead of D. J. Wilson, Kelli, Artis, and Singleton but behind B. Davis, Roederer, Velazquez, and Herron as far as Cubs CF prospects are concerned

 

Yonathan Perlaza makes hard contact from both sides of the plate but struggles defensively (big-time) at both 2B and 3B, so probably should move to LF

 

Tyler Durna has one of those really pretty LH swings and he is a better hitter than what he showed at Eugene, although he is strictly a 1B defensively

 

Jhonny Bethencourt is a bat-first utility infielder but he can rake (albeit without much HR power)

 

Fernando Kelli is VERY fast but he has really struggled with his hitting at Instructs and defense in CF needs work as well

[CubsWin]

ICYMI, here's an excellent, in depth article on Luke Hagerty's comeback. No subscription needed.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25893836/inside-37-year-old-pitcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

[Regular Show]

ICYMI, here's an excellent, in depth article on Luke Hagerty's comeback. No subscription needed.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25893836/inside-37-year-old-pitcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

 

Yeah, it's a cool story. I knew about his comeback before the ESPN story, but I didn't know all the details about his struggles after TJS. I thought his stuff didn't bounce back all the way or remember reading his fastball was down from what it was when he was first drafted by the Cubs. I didn't know he had a severe problem with his control.

 

Cool story no matter what happens. I'm rooting for the guy and hope he can become the next Rich Hill (probably more as an impact reliever than starter).

[weis21]

Well yes they’re not going to build up his arm for three years when’s he’s 40 years old to be a starter

[Regular Show]

Well yes they’re not going to build up his arm for three years when’s he’s 40 years old to be a starter

 

Umm, no... When Rich Hill came back in 2015 (at 35) he came back as a starter (a surprising impact starter) and finished with an ERA of 1.55. His IP total wasn't very large for that year, but there was no suggestion of making him a reliever if his control/command was good enough. The A's signed him the next season as a starter. He pitched a grand total of 94 IPs in 2015. And no, he didn't pitch much in years prior so his "arm wasn't built up" for a starter's workload.

 

Generally speaking, when a pitcher is attempting a comeback over 30 the signing team cares less about building the pitcher back up or making sure their arm can handle a starter's workload. The reasons being the body should be fully mature and that the signing club can maximize the return on the pitcher. Scott Kazmir made a successful comeback, but it only lasted for a short while. Most pitchers making a comeback at that age won't be successful and/or have a very brief window of effectiveness.

 

Also, in Luke Hagerty's case the main thing is he's already had problems with control in the past. When a pitcher has great stuff but so-so command/control you convert them to reliever and hope they can improve their control in short bursts. Also, watching him pitch he's max effort and I worry about that approach as a starter. Maybe he'll change once he's pitching in the Cubs' complex in AZ. I'm not really concerned about building his arm back up -- in three years he might be a coach/retired after an unsuccessful comeback.

[weis21]

what exactly (or, i guess, with who) are you arguing? we both think he's going to be a reliever.

 

you gave reasons out loud, but this player:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml

 

and this player:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hagert001luk

 

are clearly different. hagerty hasn't thrown a professional pitch in a decade. he's a reliever (more than likely one that won't ever pitch for the chicago cubs) and we both agree with that. quit arguing with nobody in particular.

 

ETA: here's hill's independent league innings. this isn't apples to apples. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hill--002ric

[Regular Show]

what exactly (or, i guess, with who) are you arguing? we both think he's going to be a reliever.

 

you gave reasons out loud, but this player:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml

 

and this player:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hagert001luk

 

are clearly different. hagerty hasn't thrown a professional pitch in a decade. he's a reliever (more than likely one that won't ever pitch for the chicago cubs) and we both agree with that. quit arguing with nobody in particular.

 

ETA: here's hill's independent league innings. this isn't apples to apples. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hill--002ric

 

 

I am arguing with your concept and that "Well yes they’re not going to build up his arm for three years when’s he’s 40 years old to be a starter" statement.

 

They don't care about building up his arm (to the point of having him work as a starter). Period. If he's good enough (miraculously) to hold his stuff over 4-5 innings, his control/command has improved significantly and the Cubs have a clear need for another starter at the end of the season then he's a SP. If injuries strike and they need another SP down the stretch (and most importantly) think Hagerty could do the job -- then they'll use him as a starter whether his "arm is built up enough" or not. The Cubs aren't going to "baby him" like what the Nats did with Stephen Strasburg back in 2012. I seriously doubt any of this will happen, but it has nothing to do with whether his arm/body has built up.

 

Reliever is just the most logical role for him at this point due to multiple factors (max-effort delivery, control/command issues, mindset/makeup).

 

EDIT: Also, it's important to note some pitchers have problems adapting to relief pitching. They have problems getting loose/warming up, get fatigued faster pitching every few days instead of every 4-5 days, and simply don't like the role. I doubt this is the case with Hagerty, but I honestly have no clue.

Edited February 7, 2019 by Regular Show

[Regular Show]

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[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1091509095763492865[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1091509652679020544[/tweet]

Hagerty looks like he's in great shape. Great stuff. Command/control issues will probably be the biggest thing for him.

[weis21]

I’m going to be honest. I had the day off and I wanted to see how little it took from me questioning anything you said for you to flip out.

 

I hope Hagerty does well.

 

Go Cubs and stuff.

[Regular Show]

I’m going to be honest. I had the day off and I wanted to see how little it took from me questioning anything you said for you to flip out.

 

I hope Hagerty does well.

 

Go Cubs and stuff.

 

Lol. Flip out? Okay sure... Go back and read my posts.

 

I just pointed out you're wrong about your "build up his arm for three years when’s he’s 40 years old to be a starter" statement. The Cubs aren't going to handle him like how they're carefully handling Adbert Alzolay.

 

Again, if his command issues are gone, his stuff holds up, he's dominating the minors, and the Cubs have a clear need in the SR and he's the best option -- then they'll use him as a starter later this season.

 

Yes, I also hope Hagerty does well.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

Interesting stuff in here regarding Nico:

 

“It looks like a reach,” one rival area scout texted me. “But I trust them on college position players, so let’s see.”

 

That scout said his amateur department had Hoerner near the back end of the top 100 draft-eligible prospects that summer. Another high-ranking official outside the Cubs organization expressed a similar sentiment, suggesting they weren’t high on Hoerner, but adding that they were intrigued given the Cubs’ amateur evaluation skills when it comes to position players.

 

The fascination in the Cubs’ amateur department only grew from there. They’d been watching so many players in the Cape Cod League that they weren’t sure exactly what Hoerner was.

Of course they love players doing well in the Cape Cod League.

 

Hoerner laughs when he hears all the talk about launch angle.

 

“Never in my life have I wanted to hit ground balls,” he said. “I don’t see it as a revolution. You want to hit home runs from the day you’re born. But it’s about understanding my body.”

 

What Hoerner has learned is that during college he spent a lot of time trying to adjust his swing rather than doing what naturally came to him. He ended up closing his stance a little bit in the fall in Arizona and he said the change has let his body move more freely.

 

Hoerner isn’t quite as advanced as previous college draft picks the Cubs have made, but he’s moving quicker than many expected. Despite making just 17 plate appearances at Low-A South Bend before having his season cut short, there’s a good chance he’ll start the season in High-A Myrtle Beach, where fellow shortstop and highly thought of prospect Aramis Ademan is expected to be as well.

I'm surprised about that assignment (if that's the plan). I think he's ready for AA and I was surprised by how well he did in the AFL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hoerner isn’t quite as advanced as previous college draft picks the Cubs have made, but he’s moving quicker than many expected. Despite making just 17 plate appearances at Low-A South Bend before having his season cut short, there’s a good chance he’ll start the season in High-A Myrtle Beach, where fellow shortstop and highly thought of prospect Aramis Ademan is expected to be as well.

I'm surprised about that assignment (if that's the plan). I think he's ready for AA and I was surprised by how well he did in the AFL.

 

He only had 7 games in Eugene and 4 in South Bend, I think Myrtle Beach is a pretty good starting spot. He'll still be able to move quickly if he hits as expected.

[Hrubes20]

Hoerner isn’t quite as advanced as previous college draft picks the Cubs have made, but he’s moving quicker than many expected. Despite making just 17 plate appearances at Low-A South Bend before having his season cut short, there’s a good chance he’ll start the season in High-A Myrtle Beach, where fellow shortstop and highly thought of prospect Aramis Ademan is expected to be as well.

I'm surprised about that assignment (if that's the plan). I think he's ready for AA and I was surprised by how well he did in the AFL.

 

He only had 7 games in Eugene and 4 in South Bend, I think Myrtle Beach is a pretty good starting spot. He'll still be able to move quickly if he hits as expected.

 

And given that Hoerner isn't even throwing overhand right now yet, the presence of Ademan in MB doesn't mean much. Hoerner is probably going to DH for awhile.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Tom, I still haven’t seen confirmation that Estrada had surgery.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

@CubsProspects is replacing Luke Blaize at BN, which is fantastic. He unmasked himself too.