Minor League Musings

[CubinNY]

Today's Ask BA is on the Yankees presumed choice of Torres over Eloy: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-choose-gleyber-torres-eloy-jimenez/#SybqrOMjHocEY23B.97

 

If you’re asking who has a better chance to become a star, the answer is Jimenez. Jimenez has the size, strength and power potential that could see him end up as a middle-of-the-lineup stalwart. His frame and present power make it easier to project him as a future 25-30 home run slugger.

 

But if you’re asking who is the safer bet to be a big league regular, the answer is Torres. Where Jimenez will bring little value defensively—he’s a left fielder who might be able to stretch to fill right field—Torres is a shortstop, one who most scouts believe will be able to stay at the position. So if Jimenez is going to be a useful regular, he has to hit for significant power.

 

Torres doesn’t have nearly as high a bar to clear to be a productive everyday player. If Torres comes close to reaching the average hit/average power he is projected to have, he’ll be a very productive regular.

 

So what gives Torres the edge is his increased defensive value, and a slightly better hit tool, but it was surely a difficult decision for the Yankees.

Thank goodness for us.

[Post Count Padder]

MLB.com released their midseason top 100 list and midseason top 30 by team. Three Cubs in the top 100 (using MLB rookie eligibility):

 

23. Willson Contreras

31. Ian Happ

33. Eloy Jimenez

 

Albert Almora Jr graduated and Gleyber Torres came in at 26.

 

The Cubs top 10:

 

1. Willson Contreras

2. Ian Happ

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Jeimer Candelario

5. Dylan Cease

6. Mark Zagunis

7. Duane Underwood Jr

8. Oscar De La Cruz

9. Trevor Clifton

10. Jose Albertos

Wow, five pitchers in the top 10. Who would slide in to 10 once Contreras loses rookie status? Tseng has looked pretty good, especially for his age/level.

[Cubswin11]

MLB.com released their midseason top 100 list and midseason top 30 by team. Three Cubs in the top 100 (using MLB rookie eligibility):

 

23. Willson Contreras

31. Ian Happ

33. Eloy Jimenez

 

Albert Almora Jr graduated and Gleyber Torres came in at 26.

 

The Cubs top 10:

 

1. Willson Contreras

2. Ian Happ

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Jeimer Candelario

5. Dylan Cease

6. Mark Zagunis

7. Duane Underwood Jr

8. Oscar De La Cruz

9. Trevor Clifton

10. Jose Albertos

Wow, five pitchers in the top 10. Who would slide in to 10 once Contreras loses rookie status? Tseng has looked pretty good, especially for his age/level.

Caratini, EJM or Dewees probably slide in there for me

[Post Count Padder]

Also, a blast from the past, Brett pointed out today that Jesus Castillo was one of four Eugene All Stars. He has a 10.31 K/9 and 2.43 ERA. Erick Leal is also pitching pretty well in Myrtle Beach. Can't believe we got both for short fast white man Tony Campana.

 

Odds on either getting a promotion soon?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB.com released their midseason top 100 list and midseason top 30 by team. Three Cubs in the top 100 (using MLB rookie eligibility):

 

23. Willson Contreras

31. Ian Happ

33. Eloy Jimenez

 

Albert Almora Jr graduated and Gleyber Torres came in at 26.

 

The Cubs top 10:

 

1. Willson Contreras

2. Ian Happ

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Jeimer Candelario

5. Dylan Cease

6. Mark Zagunis

7. Duane Underwood Jr

8. Oscar De La Cruz

9. Trevor Clifton

10. Jose Albertos

Wow, five pitchers in the top 10. Who would slide in to 10 once Contreras loses rookie status? Tseng has looked pretty good, especially for his age/level.

 

Bryan Hudson is #11 on their list (lol) so he'd in theory slot into the top ten after Contreras graduates.

 

Dewees is 12, EJM is 15, Caratini 17 and Tseng 28: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=chc

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also, a blast from the past, Brett pointed out today that Jesus Castillo was one of four Eugene All Stars. He has a 10.31 K/9 and 2.43 ERA. Erick Leal is also pitching pretty well in Myrtle Beach. Can't believe we got both for short fast white man Tony Campana.

 

Odds on either getting a promotion soon?

 

Leal is on the DL so I'm not sure he'll get promoted this season even if he comes back reasonably soon.

 

Really don't see Castillo getting promoted except maybe at the end of the season if South Bend needs playoff help. If anyone moves up from Eugene to SB, it'll be Oscar De La Cruz.

[Post Count Padder]

Also, a blast from the past, Brett pointed out today that Jesus Castillo was one of four Eugene All Stars. He has a 10.31 K/9 and 2.43 ERA. Erick Leal is also pitching pretty well in Myrtle Beach. Can't believe we got both for short fast white man Tony Campana.

 

Odds on either getting a promotion soon?

 

Leal is on the DL so I'm not sure he'll get promoted this season even if he comes back reasonably soon.

 

Really don't see Castillo getting promoted except maybe at the end of the season if South Bend needs playoff help. If anyone moves up from Eugene to SB, it'll be Oscar De La Cruz.

Ah ok, didn't realize Leal was on the DL.

 

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised Dillon Maples is still in the organization? Is he gonna become anything?

[davell]

Also, a blast from the past, Brett pointed out today that Jesus Castillo was one of four Eugene All Stars. He has a 10.31 K/9 and 2.43 ERA. Erick Leal is also pitching pretty well in Myrtle Beach. Can't believe we got both for short fast white man Tony Campana.

 

Odds on either getting a promotion soon?

 

Leal is on the DL so I'm not sure he'll get promoted this season even if he comes back reasonably soon.

 

Really don't see Castillo getting promoted except maybe at the end of the season if South Bend needs playoff help. If anyone moves up from Eugene to SB, it'll be Oscar De La Cruz.

Ah ok, didn't realize Leal was on the DL.

 

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised Dillon Maples is still in the organization? Is he gonna become anything?

 

Maybe a half ass entrepreneur, if he hasn't blown his 2.5. He could probably buy a car wash. Some kiosks in a mall. Learn Poker and play lots of private games.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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[JennieGarthAlgar]

Albertos at 10 seems high. Tell me why its not crazy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Willson Contreras went over 130 AB so he's no longer a prospect.

[CubsWin]

I bs'd this current Cubs top 10, not including Edwards Jr. who would be third for me. Feedback/Criticisms appreciated!:

 

1 - Jimenez - Stud

2 - Happ - I love his ceiling as a 2B and am a fan of the all around versatility as a switch hitter with experience in the OF.

3 - Candelario - Solid switch hitting 3B prospect that could maybe push being a first division guy with his makeup

4 - Martinez - Got thrown into full season ball after a two year layoff, getting better with more reps, higher pedigree than I think he gets credit for

5 - Hatch - Healthy, experienced, productive, has Tanner Roark-ish potential

6 - Caratini - Not dynamic as far as power/speed tools but as a patient switch hitting guy who can play C he does not have to be

7 - Zagunis - Good approach, not sure about ceiling as a corner OF only guy, sure bet to see the MLs

8 - de la Cruz - Avoided the surgery!

9 - Hannemann - Much, much better periphs this year and offers speed/defense/some pop

10 - Cease - The system is in enough flux right now that a pre-injured pitcher with his tools and pedigree has a case to be as high as 5th or 6th, but I'm fine with just getting into the top ten. It's not like there's so much of a difference.

 

I believe 1,2, 4, and 5 have the tools and/or moxie to be quality guys on a first division contender by the end of the decade. There's going to be plenty of turnover - I would not be surprised to see anyone traded but Jimenez, even if I like Martinez and Happ enough that I notice their absence for a minute.

 

I had a thought to put Isaac Paredes over Cease. First because [expletive] pitchers, I'm pissed I squeezed three in, next because he's already on an outstanding career track at 17. I might end up doing it for the end of season anyway, that can wait.

I'm more of a ceiling guy when it comes to rankings. Obviously, high ceiling/high floor goes to the top, so we agree on Jimenez and Happ.

 

Candy's and EJM's ceilings are a tad lower but the floor is still decent so I can understand where they're ranked. Track record and performance at the upper levels is important to me, and his track record is still fairly short. Putting him 4th isn't crazy by any means. I might go a tad lower, but if he hits the rest of the way like he has in the 2nd half (.328/.413/.500, 30 Ks/19 BB in around 150 PAs) while age appropriate for his level and providing solid D, then, yeah. If July turns out to be a hot streak, then he's a few slot lower.

 

I don't know enough about Hatch to put him at 5. He could belong there. From what I have heard, (6'1", 190 lbs., low-90s fastball, funky-ish delivery, injury concerns) 5 seems high, but it's definitely an incomplete picture. He's a little over 3 weeks from being 22 and hasn't played pro ball yet. Since I don't know enough about him, I can't make a strong comparison, but that profile is similar to Clifton's. Roughly the same size. Clifton has a tick or two more on his FB. He'll turn 22 next May. The main difference is Clifton has a longer track record in pro ball with decent success in High-A. At this point, knowing what I know (and more importantly don't know), wherever I rank Hatch, Clifton would probably be in front of him. Of course, that could change quickly with more information.

 

I'm not afraid of pitchers. I completely agree they can't be counted on to fulfill expectations due to injury, but until they crash and burn, they are what they are. I'm okay ranking a pitcher high on a list. It just comes with an asterisk because they could disappear in a moments notice. Clearly, I'm okay with dreaming on ceiling and being disappointed. After all, I grew up a Cubs fan! Some pitchers are more sturdy than others of course, but no pitcher in the Cubs org has the ceiling of Dylan Cease. De La Cruz also has quite a high ceiling. Those two are in the mix with EJM for me. They could be really good, but need more of a track record.

 

We agree Zagunis' ceiling is lower than those previously mentioned. The fact that Caratini looks to stick at catcher and be at least average would put him above Zagunis for me like you have them.

 

Hannemann doesn't make my top ten. Not really close either. True his periphs took a big step forward this season, but his walk rate and hit tool, especially for a guy with his speed, aren't all that great. Plus, he'll be 26 in April. As a .250 career minor league hitter, I can't put him in front of guys like Dewees or DJ Wilson.

[Hrubes20]

- What are the injury concerns with Hatch? I might have missed something.

- Martinez has a low ceiling? I see his ceiling more as TBD, but one of the highest in the system because of an all around game.

- What's Clifton's velocity compared to Hatch? They're both 91-96, maybe a 97 in there from what I understand. I don't see either as a straight SP, and Hatch has the better command and control between the two.

- To me picking between Hannemann, Dewees, and Wilson (at least at this point) is a waste of time. Wilson easily has the highest ceiling there, but right now none of the above really has a shot at being a starter in the majors. That 10th spot could go to lots of players so I just picked a guy who has a shot at reaching the show in the next two years. I like Hannemann's shot at contributing in the majors thanks to his speed and defense, both among the best in the system.

 

I'm not 100% about Zagunis in the top 10, hoping trades will clear off default guys like he and Candelario. I just do not believe they have a shot with the Cubs for one reason or another.

 

Hatch partially tore his UCL two years ago, but opted against surgery. He sat out all of 2015 and came back this past year. And you are definitely high on Hatch's velocity, as are many of the pre-draft scouting reports. Maybe it was just because it was at the end of the season, but Hatch sat 89-92 with his fastball, touching 93 and maybe 94 a handful of times between the last 2 starts. I don't feel comfortable listing Hatch's velo as anything higher than that, given that he won't have the luxury of pitching once every 7 days in the minors. I really get a Trevor Cahill vibe from him.

[Hrubes20]

- What are the injury concerns with Hatch? I might have missed something.

- Martinez has a low ceiling? I see his ceiling more as TBD, but one of the highest in the system because of an all around game.

- What's Clifton's velocity compared to Hatch? They're both 91-96, maybe a 97 in there from what I understand. I don't see either as a straight SP, and Hatch has the better command and control between the two.

- To me picking between Hannemann, Dewees, and Wilson (at least at this point) is a waste of time. Wilson easily has the highest ceiling there, but right now none of the above really has a shot at being a starter in the majors. That 10th spot could go to lots of players so I just picked a guy who has a shot at reaching the show in the next two years. I like Hannemann's shot at contributing in the majors thanks to his speed and defense, both among the best in the system.

 

I'm not 100% about Zagunis in the top 10, hoping trades will clear off default guys like he and Candelario. I just do not believe they have a shot with the Cubs for one reason or another.

 

Hatch partially tore his UCL two years ago, but opted against surgery. He sat out all of 2015 and came back this past year. And you are definitely high on Hatch's velocity, as are many of the pre-draft scouting reports. Maybe it was just because it was at the end of the season, but Hatch sat 89-92 with his fastball, touching 93 and maybe 94 a handful of times between the last 2 starts. I don't feel comfortable listing Hatch's velo as anything higher than that, given that he won't have the luxury of pitching once every 7 days in the minors. I really get a Trevor Cahill vibe from him.

 

Hatch velocity:

 

 

Which is why I specifically said "And you are definitely high on Hatch's velocity, as are many of the pre-draft scouting reports". He maybe reached back for 96 once in his 3rd start of the year or something, but I personally watched his last 2 starts and he was 89-92.

[Hrubes20]

 

Hatch velocity:

 

 

Which is why I specifically said "And you are definitely high on Hatch's velocity, as are many of the pre-draft scouting reports". He maybe reached back for 96 once in his 3rd start of the year or something, but I personally watched his last 2 starts and he was 89-92.

 

I don't understand how I'm high on his velocity based on what you're saying yet. I don't doubt he sat 88-92 in his last two starts of the year at 88-92, but that's not out of the ordinary overall.

 

The UCL thing is interesting, but points to him for not getting the surgery and throwing plenty of innings afterwards.

 

I certainly could be making it up, but it seems like most of these guys that see late season velo drop during college tend to carry that lower velocity in pro ball and the move to the 5 day rest period. Phil Bickford, Dillon Tate, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Beede are all guys that were recently drafted and had this exact thing happen. Seems safer to assume that the lower velocity is what we will see going forward.

[imb]

 

Hatch velocity:

 

 

Which is why I specifically said "And you are definitely high on Hatch's velocity, as are many of the pre-draft scouting reports". He maybe reached back for 96 once in his 3rd start of the year or something, but I personally watched his last 2 starts and he was 89-92.

 

I don't understand how I'm high on his velocity based on what you're saying yet. I don't doubt he sat 88-92 in his last two starts of the year at 88-92, but that's not out of the ordinary overall. We're likely talking 120+ innings in.

 

from 96 to 89-92 after only 120 innings every 7 days, sounds like he'll be just fine to throw 180+ every five days!

[craig]

...

I certainly could be making it up, but it seems like most of these guys that see late season velo drop during college tend to carry that lower velocity in pro ball and the move to the 5 day rest period. Phil Bickford, Dillon Tate, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Beede are all guys that were recently drafted and had this exact thing happen. Seems safer to assume that the lower velocity is what we will see going forward.

 

Rubes, great point and I totally agree.

*Pre-draft stuff always had guys with high velocity, and they are always listing top-touch velocity rather than routine day-do-day working velocity. A guy might spend the whole season actually getting outs with 88-92 2-seamers, but if he throw a couple of 96mph 4-seamers, the 96 will get listed as if he's a power pitcher or something.

*Agree that what a guy does on 7-day rest over a dozen starts, and what he's doing for the last half of a 5-day rotation season is often different. The 5-day rotation pro will be mostly at the tired end-of-season college velocity.

 

In case of Hatch:

* I don't expect him to be a velocity guy. I'm hoping that he can be an average-velocity guy, not sub-par. And that his pitching will make him good. Movement, location, command.

*I perceive Clifton as stronger arm and a faster fastball. But I'd rank Hatch above Clifton. Hatch has a chance to be a good command/movement guy. Clifton has struggled with control. So I think Hatch has a better chance to have excellent big-league control than Clifton projects to have, even if Clifton has better pure stuff.

*An unflattering analogy I have for Hatch is Warren. (It's wrong in that Warren is HR-vulnerable, and Hatch doesn't profile that way, non-trivial difference.) Warren's been terrible for us and we just gave him away at negligible value. But I see Hatch as being of that style, a shortish guy with average arm. When he's on his game and his location is working, he can be effective. Like Warren, if he loses his command he's going to fail. Capable of starting some, perhaps. But perhaps better used in relief.

[imb]

 

I don't understand how I'm high on his velocity based on what you're saying yet. I don't doubt he sat 88-92 in his last two starts of the year at 88-92, but that's not out of the ordinary overall. We're likely talking 120+ innings in.

 

from 96 to 89-92 after only 120 innings every 7 days, sounds like he'll be just fine to throw 180+ every five days!

 

Who is counting on anyone in this system as is becoming a 180+ inning starter in the majors? Pulling off a more successful Warren starter/reliever would be a win out of this group by the end of the end of this decade.

 

you are arguing yourself into some pretty horrendous circles here

[CubsWin]

- What are the injury concerns with Hatch? I might have missed something.

- Martinez has a low ceiling? I see his ceiling more as TBD, but one of the highest in the system because of an all around game.

- What's Clifton's velocity compared to Hatch? They're both 91-96, maybe a 97 in there from what I understand. I don't see either as a straight SP, and Hatch has the better command and control between the two.

- To me picking between Hannemann, Dewees, and Wilson (at least at this point) is a waste of time. Wilson easily has the highest ceiling there, but right now none of the above really has a shot at being a starter in the majors. That 10th spot could go to lots of players so I just picked a guy who has a shot at reaching the show in the next two years. I like Hannemann's shot at contributing in the majors thanks to his speed and defense, both among the best in the system.

 

I'm not 100% about Zagunis in the top 10, hoping trades will clear off default guys like he and Candelario. I just do not believe they have a shot with the Cubs for one reason or another.

Some of this stuff was already touched on, but since this was in response to my comment...

 

1. As was referred to earlier, the injury concerns on Hatch stem from him feeling discomfort in his pitching arm and being shut down in the spring of 2015. Dr. James Andrews diagnosed a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament. Hatch redshirted and received a platelet rich plasma injection and didn't pitch again until this season.

 

2. I never said Martinez has a low ceiling. Don't know where you got that. I said his ceiling is a tad lower than that of Jimenez and Happ, in my opinion.

 

3. From what I've read and watched, Hatch's FB velocity sits more 90-92 while Clifton is more 92-94. These are a couple of a the things I read to make me think that. John Sickels from January of this year.

Trevor Clifton, RHP, Grade C+: Age 20, posted 3.98 ERA with 103/47 K/BB in 109 innings in Low-A, 92-96 fastball, curve can be nasty, still working on command and change-up, potential breakout candidate with mid-rotation upside.

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As I said in the comment you're responding to, I thought they were similar in profile but Clifton had a "tick or two more on his FB", is about 8 months younger and has an established track record in pro ball. For those reasons, I would have Clifton above Hatch right now, but as I learn more about Hatch, that could change.

 

4. I get what you're saying about Hannemann having the speed and defense to contribute off the bench in the majors and being the closest to the majors of the three, and I agree. For me, Dewees also possesses very good speed and has a much better hit tool while being 2.5 years younger. Wilson also has really good speed and is supposedly solid defensively as well. He's 5.5 years younger and performing pretty well in the NWL, a league he's a year young for. It seems we agree Wilson has more upside, and since I'm an upside/ceiling guy, I'd have him higher.

 

One problem for me with your defense/explanation of your Hannemann ranking was you talked about throwing anyone in at that 10th spot. One, you ranked him 9th, and two, I think there are guys worthy of getting excited about in the 9-15 range on my lists. Granted, again, I am an upside guy. Everybody's a little different when it comes to these lists, and that's good. Some value floor and being close to contributing more than others. All good. I don't seek to change your mind on anything.

[davell]

Even if they're at the same velo currently, its easy to give the nod there to Clifton, since he's doing it every 5 days, versus once a week for Hatch.

[craig]

Thanks Tom, I think you've made some excellent points.

1. Clifton has not carried a high innings worked, he'll probably end with fewer innings than Hatch on the year, and no more than equal.

2. Interesting that Clifton has NOT worked on 5-day cycle. I hadn't noticed that before (although I have several times wondered "why hasn't Clifton worked in a while?") Has that been the same with other young pitchers? I wonder if that's unique for Clifton, or is/will be kind of standard practice for Cubs with guys in the 18-20 age range?

3. I'm surprised Clifton lists at only 6'1". I had the sense he was taller and longer. I wonder if he has grown an inch or two, with 6'1 being his 17-year-old high-school listing or something?

4. I think your point is well taken, that we aren't expecting either of these guys to be 180+ inning workhorse guys. If either ends up becoming a 180+ full-year rotation regular, that's possible for sure. But I think in either case, that would actually be a happy, positive surprise. Odds of that ever happening are less than even, I'd guess.

5. Hatch had a 2.3 BB/9 ratio this season, and 0.15 HR/9. (I'm using baseball cube, not sure if that included playoffs). Obviously college is one thing, pros another. But certainly it would seem that his upside is to have good BB/HR splits. If K's, BB's, and HR's are the big three, and if Hatch perhaps projects favorably in two of those three areas, there's reason to be very hopeful. And obviously many hopes for college pitchers are unrealized in the pros, the walk rate might go way up.

[davell]

Hmm, wasn't aware he wasn't pitching every 5th day. I don't think he's 6'1 though. He's listed at that in some places. FG has him at 6'4 and PG had him at 6'6. Looking at a few pics of him with others, its not conclusive, but I'd bet he's definitely not 6'1.

[craig]

Tom, while giving you credit for some good points, I also have to give you some very good credit for being the strongest Edwards advocate. The dramatic minor-league K-rate, which you valued as manifestation of hard-to-hit and extraordinary stuff, has carried over very well. His stuff really is very special, special enough that it stands out even relative to the high standard of big-league pitchers. And you argued that his control problems were not necessarily prohibitively bad; that too has proven correct thus far.

 

You got that one right.

 

Your guy Kellogg has also settled down in A-, he's been a pretty competitive finesse lefty down there. Not sure how favorably the finesse stuff will advance against higher-level hitters, but when his control is good he's effective versus A- guys. Over last 10 starts, he's 2.25 ERA, with only 7 walks in 60 innings, and only one start of last ten with more than one walk.

 

Will be interesting how he manages in AA next year. I suspect that if Myrtle had been a playoff team instead of South Bend, he'd have been promoted before now. But maybe good to just let him stay settled in a playoff team that will have some extra game(s), and stay in a winning groove.

[CubsWin]

So in summary for Hatch and Clifton we've got a Cubs fan blog tweet of 92-94 for Clifton as opposed to a Hatch pre-draft of 91-94 from MLB.com, Sickels reporting 92-96 for Clifton as opposed to Callis throwing 91-96 for Hatch, a cold weather February report on Hatch below that velocity, and then Hatch not at that velocity for a couple starts where he way exceeded workloads Clifton has yet to see. Do you see why I'm not losing sleep over the tiny discrepancy here? Clifton's most definitely had pro starts where he sat at 89-92, the vast majority of these guys are the same way, and only this year in his third full pro season with all those years of pro level facilities to utilize is he sitting in that 92-94 range more consistently. It just doesn't add up to much of, if any, difference to me at this stage. The exact same flaws with a reported 91-96 for Hatch are entirely possible and likely there with a 92-96 for Clifton.

 

I'd give Clifton the clean arm edge, but even then Hatch avoided the surgery, PRP treatments have been pretty damn successful across sports without the nonsense of a blade, and he got through this season without a hitch. At this point he's as much an injury risk as any 21 YO pitcher. I don't buy into Clifton's "established track record in pro ball" as he's still at the A levels, even if High A, which really doesn't offer dramatically better competition than most high end D1 programs and OkSt is that.

Ha! No, those were just the two I took the time to post. There was other evidence of Hatch's velo being generally lower. It's not important. Never mind, man. I'm not out to convince you of anything.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Everyone knew that Edwards was hard to hit, struck people out, and didn't give up home runs. Everyone also thought he was a good bet to be a nice bullpen arm. The arguments you've had about him, Tom, have been regarding your ranking of him as the top prospect in the system (or at least very close to it).

 

You're still wrong. Edwards will never be more valuable than Willson Contreras, despite him finding his command and looking like possibly an elite late-inning type. The whole argument boiled down to: "Well, he's a relief pitcher." He still is.