Minor League Musings

[jersey cubs fan]

my question was essentially whether it was unthinkable that a young player with great contact skills could hit for significantly more power as his approach and body mature. not whether it should be expected or projected, but whether it would or wouldn't be unheard of, because the conversation was about upside.

I think asking whether it is truly unthinkable is rather pointless. Sure, there is some variation of the universe where that happens. It probably won't though and isn't appropriate to consider when discussing realistic upside, because everybody could theoretically start showing a lot more power than they ever have before if magic happens.

[davell]

Gato-I don't have an issue with what you think Almora winds up being. But haven't you been using the same small sample people are excited about for him, on your guy?(Caratini)

 

I actually run with Caratini's roughly last ~400 PAS of the season where he put up a .750 OPS at the C position in the Cubs' toughest minor league park for hitters. Then there's his playoff run where he either went 7-11 or 4-11 with 3 XBHs.

 

Other things that would separate them:

 

- Position - Offensive expectations for a C prospect are not that of an OF prospect.

- Caratini is on track to remain a switch hitter

 

Even then, I'm not pushing for Caratini as a top 100 prospect today nor am I kicking Almora out of the Cubs' top 10 prospects.

 

OK, again I'm fine with the reasoning on Almora. But Caratini is 8 months older and playing a level behind where Almora is too.(I get that C's develop later in some instances) I wouldn't lump CF in with corners either, when talking offense for OF.

 

I think the easiest thing to say here is we all have certain guys we like for some reason or another and can frame an argument for why we do. And can likely do the same as to why we don't like others.

[David]

i think almora's ceiling/upside is a player who is expected to hit something like .280/.325/.400 with plus defense in CF...maybe a 15 HR guy with a bunch of doubles.

 

if my SLG is off for that description, my bad, i pulled it outta my ass mostly.

[Tim]

he's not going through puberty and steroids aren't as easy to come by so I think the safe answer is he's shown his power abilities.

 

hey sweet post that isn't an answer to my question

 

and the notion that steroids are the only way to add significant strength and muscle for a 21 year old is [expletive] hilariously laughable

 

What was your question then?

 

What's the history of non-steroidal significant power being added after 21. Sure he'll eventually get old man strength which will help him when wrestling younger nieces and nephews who think he's old. But that's not the same as adding power to your profile as a hitter at 22 and beyond.

Most players who end up with power add a significant amount after age 21.

 

It is very fair to add some projection to his power at this point. His median projection is probably in the 10-15 HR range he has some probability to reach the 15-20 range. Either of those adds up to a very nice player if he can maintain his 11% strikeout rate and plus defense in CF.

[davell]

I'm not THAT high on either. Yes, I think Almora is top 6-7 in our system and Caratini is likely 16-20 for me. My point is its easy to frame arguments for Almora to take a big step forward if you WANT to. Hell, you've done the same with Caratini.(and done a solid job at it)

 

To me, if you're wanting to add power to Almora's profile, the easiest argument to make is to give him a bit of loift to what's a relatively flat looking swing.

[craig]

i think almora's ceiling/upside is a player who is expected to hit something like .280/.325/.400 with plus defense in CF...maybe a 15 HR guy with a bunch of doubles. if my SLG is off for that description, my bad, i pulled it outta my ass mostly.

 

That's kind of how I'm seeing it too, for an optimistic but not unrealistic scenario. 15HR maybe on the high side, but .280-ish and .325-ish sound pretty reasonable, that's not ridiculous. 12-15 HR, upside could boost the slugging a little bit, maybe .425. .280-.325-.425 would be a .750-OPS guy. Very good player with the defense, not a star.

 

That's around his career minor-league output: .287-.323-.416, so it's hardly like some fantasy dream with a radical change in profile.

 

The challenge in projecting his big-league output to mirror his minor-league output, of course, is that few players match in the majors what they did in the minors. So, if he's been .739 in minors, can I really realistically hope he might be .730-.750 in majors? Not likely, no.

 

But not absurd to hope for either. He's been young for his leagues, and as Cubswin has noted a large chunk of his history was during an adjustment period.

 

I expect that the improvement in walk-rate this past year is real.

 

He won't sustain his low K-rate in the majors, nobody can against the awesomeness of big-league pitchers, and especially if he's going back to serious leg-kick. So to hang in the .730-.750 range in the majors, won't happen without adding an extra five HR's and getting into double figures.

[CubsWin]

There's a lot of anecdotal evidence as well.

 

A more accurate statement is that it's almost all anecdotal. He went on a quest and found himself with Team USA, gave himself a pep talk, remembered his lessons, tweaked his swing, adjusted other stuff, and then kicked ass in August. Now he's added muscle, is in the Best Shape of His Life, and so on. Beyond 140 PAs, with a .387 BABIP, where he hit for high average, some power, and took some more walks, everything else seems to be anecdotal and/or Cubs sourced.

"Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.

[jersey cubs fan]

in what way is this thread a placeholder?

[CubsWin]

in what way is this thread a placeholder?

It isn't. Time to change the title I guess if it really matters.

[CubsWin]

"Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.

 

For me the anecdotal stuff is what it is, anecdotal stuff. We've gone through Almora tweaking his swing before, and everyone in the minors is adjusting and going through adjustment periods so he isn't unique there. The best ones hit anyway. That will not be the last "adjustment period" of Almora's career. I believe he will hit well enough in AAA next year to maintain a quality prospect status, but unless he comes out mashing HRs, hitting for high average, and taking some more walks, I have serious doubts he's suddenly a brand new, way better hitter solely on Cubs sourced stories and the really strong August. My mind is open to him becoming a dramatically better player and hitter, that doesn't make it the likely outcome.

Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.

[CubsWin]

:-))

Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.

 

What now?

:-)) :-)) :-)) Nothing, man. Just curious. Before you were saying "he is what he is" and the in last line of your previous post you said you had an open mind just didn't consider it likely. Never mind, It doesn't matter.

[imb]

both of you idiot nerds shut up

[CubsWin]

both of you idiot nerds shut up

Yes sir, BLB. I shall never post again. I promise. Just for you. Thank you for your counsel.

[CubsWin]

Where were we? That's right, about Almora...

[CubsWin]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/162156078/cubs-carl-edwards-on-witnessing-2015-playoffs

 

What happened between midseason 2015 and now that Edwards fell 13(!) spots?

Primarily, he became a reliever and didn't answer his control questions. Contreras, Candelario and Happ performed well. Plus scouts liked what they saw from Cease, De La Cruz, Wilson and Hudson. Other guys like Almora, McKinney and Underwood, all 2-3 years younger, held their own.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/162156078/cubs-carl-edwards-on-witnessing-2015-playoffs

 

What happened between midseason 2015 and now that Edwards fell 13(!) spots?

Primarily, he became a reliever and didn't answer his control questions. Contreras, Candelario and Happ performed well. Plus scouts liked what they saw from Cease, De La Cruz, Wilson and Hudson. Other guys like Almora, McKinney and Underwood, all 2-3 years younger, held their own.

 

[craig]

..

...“...something that can also improve with player development, is just the mechanics of receiving, framing, calling a game. He can throw. He can throw fine, and certainly he’s got a lot of energy behind the plate....”

 

“But with everything else that he provides, even if he just becomes sort of a [highlight=yellow]frenzied receiver[/highlight] but can do everything else, you’re still going to be really happy with him as your everyday catcher.”

 

“And the one thing I’ll say about both these players, too, is that the Cubs’ people across the board rave about both of these guys in terms of makeup, not just work ethic but intelligence in terms of the game of baseball, and I think that’s a huge separator and probably the hardest thing in the world to scout.”

 

Wilsson Contreras, the Frenzied Receiver. :)

 

Some pitch-framing analysis suggested Contreras was quite poor at pitch-framing, well worse than Schwarber. Who knows. But I think good pitch framing is usually associated with a quietness with the glove, not sure "frenzied" and good-pitch-framing typically jive. But, who knows. Hopefully he can be a nice, good pitch-framer, and if he's an energetic frenzied receiver in everything else, that's just fine.

[Vinestal]

Hasn't minor league pitch framing info been pretty suspect? Seems like you should kind of take it with a grain of salt. They don't have the equipment that the major league parks have right?

[David]

..

...“...something that can also improve with player development, is just the mechanics of receiving, framing, calling a game. He can throw. He can throw fine, and certainly he’s got a lot of energy behind the plate....”

 

“But with everything else that he provides, even if he just becomes sort of a [highlight=yellow]frenzied receiver[/highlight] but can do everything else, you’re still going to be really happy with him as your everyday catcher.”

 

“And the one thing I’ll say about both these players, too, is that the Cubs’ people across the board rave about both of these guys in terms of makeup, not just work ethic but intelligence in terms of the game of baseball, and I think that’s a huge separator and probably the hardest thing in the world to scout.”

 

Wilsson Contreras, the Frenzied Receiver. :)

 

Some pitch-framing analysis suggested Contreras was quite poor at pitch-framing, well worse than Schwarber. Who knows. But I think good pitch framing is usually associated with a quietness with the glove, not sure "frenzied" and good-pitch-framing typically jive. But, who knows. Hopefully he can be a nice, good pitch-framer, and if he's an energetic frenzied receiver in everything else, that's just fine.

 

All those jokes aside, I think his point was that even if he ends up a shaky framer, he'll be good.

[craig]

I think the Cubs still hope Sands might improve his fastball some, add a little bit more velocity, whether through mechanical optimization or whatever. In that video, to me it looked like he had to work pretty hard to get it up to 90 mph, and that his fastball command looked kinda spotty as a result. As a modest-velocity finesse guy, he'll presumably need to have above-average command and/or improve his velocity somehow.

[craig]

Sands has hit peak velocities of 94-95, so the arm strength is there, and generally sits with average velocity for a LHSP in that 89-92 range. You might be able to hope he ends up sitting 91-93 with added natural strength, but yeah command is definitely where he stands to gain the most. At least in that video he only threw a couple pitches below 91-92. Personally, I like what they've done to the delivery since drafting him and saw almost all positives in that short video in regards to him moving forward.

 

Agree, if we could hope Sands into sitting 91-93 by natural maturation or by some small adjustment in his delivery, that would be sweet. 91-93 velocity is plenty good for an anti-HR ground ball lefty, with both a good curve and an OK change, IF the control/command is excellent. If the control/command isn't too hot, then even at 91-93 he won't be very good. I'd prefer an 89-91 control guy who's anti-HR compared to a kinda-wild 91-93. But you need the command, and a good off speed pitch.

 

Tom, you mention that "At least in that video he only threw a couple pitches below 91-92". Not sure where you're getting that, eyeball estimate? I didn't see 91-92 velocities displayed in that video link, and Josh Norris, who posted the video, said he was actually 89-91 that video day.

[craig]

Ahh. Thanks! :) That's cool.

[craig]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-duane-underwood-jr-lost-weight-20160302-story.html

[RammyFanny]

FWIW I just heard Hoyer say that Happ was dealing with a lot of tough things family wise last season but his mind is back in a great place now.

[craig]

Thanks, Tom.

 

Jordan Brink: Do you know whether they did surgery after the season, and whether it's shoulder or elbow? As a guy who's 23 now, he's kind of in a tough spot, probably kinda needs to be healthy. Maybe it's been all coincidence, and his arm is healthy as can be. But if he's missed most of last two seasons because arm has problems, guys with problems don't always just have them disappear over the winter. And if he needed or needs surgery to fix something wrong, he's kind of late on the time clock to go through that and then start his career.

 

He did appear twice in June, got shut down, then rehabbed enough to pitch two innings again in early August, before they shut him down again.

 

Cubs have wanted to be the smart, optimal developmental organization. It would be awesome if one of the guys you've mentioned really did show some development, and emerge as a value.

 

I think your point is well taken that some of the Martinez/Blackburn/Tseng/Torres/Null type guys could get re-evaluated this year. To get much attention in A-ball, seems to me you either need to have some really noteworthy velocity or stuff, or else you need to post some eye-catching stats. With the Martinez/Blackburn/Tseng/Null rotation, none had either, and none showed stellar K-rates. But, guys their age can sometimes improve their velocity, by variable or marginal degree, with a little maturation, or optimization of mechanics, or just by trying to throw a little harder for the gun. Guys their age can sometimes revise their grip or sharpen their breaking ball, and boost their K's. Having 3.0 ERA-type in A-ball is boring without projection/stuff, but if you carry that up or a little lower to AA, add 1-2 mph to your normal fastball, add 2-3mph to your "tops-at" fastball, and add an extra 2K/9IP to your K-rate, suddenly back-of-rotation possibilities can seem more real, or the prospect of relief success can seem more realistic.

 

I do wonder also whether the new pitching coach will make an impact, in some cases favorable? My understanding is that Derek Johnson originally did NOT want his guys throwing real hard. That he had them throw a bunch in camp, determine where the range was that they could consistently control the fastball, and they were trained to NOT throw harder than that, even though perhaps they could. Limiting velocity was expected to have more consistency in delivery, better control, and also avoid injury. But a new guy might perhaps approach it differently? Or perhaps a new camp, a guy who could throw 91-93 pretty often if he wanted, but had found 89-91 to be his control-sweet-spot one year, perhaps a year later for whatever reason he can now control the 91-93? Johnson was highly respected, but sometimes a new guy has some new insights. Maybe for whatever reason, the new guy is able to get Blackburn's curve working consistently? Or make some very subtle adjustment with Torres so that his slider breaks a little better, deceives a little better, and controls more consistently, and suddenly it evolves into an any-count pitch and a 2-strike put away?

 

Development, you never know!

 

Thing is, I doubt the Martinez/Blackburn/Torress/Null/Tseng types are really going to have that much trade weight. I think teams in a trade tend to want a little more upside, not limited-stuff back-of-rotation wannabes?