2015/16 offseason

[Guest]

my god they were going to sign 32 year old russell martin to like a 5 year deal for big money last year...and that was on a team that wasn't established as a contender yet. far from it.

 

would you say kyle schwarber this time last year had a better chance at having a productive/valuable career as a big league catcher than albert almora right now having one as a big league CFer?

 

and remember that this was before schwarber had proven to be too good with the bat to pass up and wait on his development...as recently as 3-4 months ago they were still talking about being committed to him in the long term as a catcher (and also before the emergence of contreras).

Well if they were committed to him as a catcher then he was further away. If he wasn't a catcher, then moot point...

 

that's a fair point, but almora isn't exactly beating down the door either.

 

we'll see how he picks up from the second half he just had. i certainly hope his stock continues to rebound.

[Guest]

Some of these guys will be leaving in trades, anyway.

 

The Cubs very well may not want to pay Dexter for the next four years for other reasons, but strongly doubt it is specifically because of the presence of Almora.

I don't think Almora is the primary reason for not going long term on Fowler, and I'm not sure what the primary reason is, but there's seems to be enough smoke about other CF options that I think they aren't looking at Fowler long term.

 

I think they like Almora enough that they don't mind going more flexible on this position and saving the resources for eksewhere. On the 50% or whatever chance Almora fails at AAA, they will still be able to fill the position and save big money for more elite options elsewhere on the diamond.

[Guest]

Some of these guys will be leaving in trades, anyway.

 

The Cubs very well may not want to pay Dexter for the next four years for other reasons, but strongly doubt it is specifically because of the presence of Almora.

I don't think Almora is the primary reason for not going long term on Fowler, and I'm not sure what the primary reason is, but there's seems to be enough smoke about other CF options that I think they aren't looking at Fowler long term.

 

I think they like Almora enough that they don't mind going more flexible on this position and saving the resources for eksewhere. On the 50% or whatever chance Almora fails at AAA, they will still be able to fill the position and save big money for more elite options elsewhere on the diamond.

 

but the odds just don't hinge on him not failing. like, we actually want good players. what are the odds on him, realistically, being that at this point?

 

i think he's way down the list on whatever their criteria is in making a decision on CF. if he forces himself into that conversation, then great.

[Guest]

They also have Ian Happ as a potential CF, but they won't base any decisions on him, either.

 

Having too much talent to play at one time is not a problem the Cubs are worried about at this point.

I don't think they are worried about too much talent.... Especially if it's cost controlled talent. However financial concerns and resource allocation are likely in mind at least through the end of this decade. Not as bad as 2011-13, but still there.

[Guest]

Some of these guys will be leaving in trades, anyway.

 

The Cubs very well may not want to pay Dexter for the next four years for other reasons, but strongly doubt it is specifically because of the presence of Almora.

I don't think Almora is the primary reason for not going long term on Fowler, and I'm not sure what the primary reason is, but there's seems to be enough smoke about other CF options that I think they aren't looking at Fowler long term.

 

I think they like Almora enough that they don't mind going more flexible on this position and saving the resources for eksewhere. On the 50% or whatever chance Almora fails at AAA, they will still be able to fill the position and save big money for more elite options elsewhere on the diamond.

I'll repeat myself: Having too much talent to play at one time is not a problem the Cubs are worried about at this point.

 

There will be guys that don't pan out. Guys that pan out for a bit, then fade. Guys that get hurt. Guys that get traded. Acquiring a CF option for 2016 that is under control for a while means that Almora (and maybe Happ) become available to trade for help elsewhere. If Almora kills it in AAA and you want to slot him into CF in 2017, then the 2016 CF could be trade bait. Or could shift to RF and Soler could move to LF with Schwarbs moving behind the plate. The NL could adopt the DL as part of the 2017 labor negotiations. Heck, Almora might not fail at AAA, but might never turn into anything more than a quality backup on a championship team.

 

There are a lot of reasons not to consider Almora when making the decision about how to fill CF this offseason.

[Guest]

Poorly timed repeating on my part.

[Guest]

They also have Ian Happ as a potential CF, but they won't base any decisions on him, either.

 

Having too much talent to play at one time is not a problem the Cubs are worried about at this point.

I don't think they are worried about too much talent.... Especially if it's cost controlled talent. However financial concerns and resource allocation are likely in mind at least through the end of this decade. Not as bad as 2011-13, but still there.

Financial concerns and resource allocation are good reasons to do something else in CF next year. They do need SP. There's an opportunity to get a better player in Heyward. They might be able to get Span on a shorter deal. There will be options in the trade market. I still like Ozuna if the Marlins don't ask too much.

 

But none of that has much to do with Almora waiting in the wings.

 

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

[Guest]

Some of these guys will be leaving in trades, anyway.

 

The Cubs very well may not want to pay Dexter for the next four years for other reasons, but strongly doubt it is specifically because of the presence of Almora.

I don't think Almora is the primary reason for not going long term on Fowler, and I'm not sure what the primary reason is, but there's seems to be enough smoke about other CF options that I think they aren't looking at Fowler long term.

 

I think they like Almora enough that they don't mind going more flexible on this position and saving the resources for eksewhere. On the 50% or whatever chance Almora fails at AAA, they will still be able to fill the position and save big money for more elite options elsewhere on the diamond.

I'll repeat myself: Having too much talent to play at one time is not a problem the Cubs are worried about at this point.

 

There will be guys that don't pan out. Guys that pan out for a bit, then fade. Guys that get hurt. Guys that get traded. Acquiring a CF option for 2016 that is under control for a while means that Almora (and maybe Happ) become available to trade for help elsewhere. If Almora kills it in AAA and you want to slot him into CF in 2017, then the 2016 CF could be trade bait. Or could shift to RF and Soler could move to LF with Schwarbs moving behind the plate. The NL could adopt the DL as part of the 2017 labor negotiations. Heck, Almora might not fail at AAA, but might never turn into anything more than a quality backup on a championship team.

 

There are a lot of reasons not to consider Almora when making the decision about how to fill CF this offseason.

But it's not just about having a talented player there, but the cost in dollars and years you have to conmitt to said player. In this regard, this decision has a lot to do with Fowler himself. But Almora sitting close as a possibility is an influence on what you are ultimately worth committing.

 

I know we'd like to see a lot of big spending, but there really isn't evidence to support that will be the path, but that calculated odds will be. Maybe this is the offseason that all is turned on its head, but no reason to believe that yet, IMO.

[Guest]

They also have Ian Happ as a potential CF, but they won't base any decisions on him, either.

 

Having too much talent to play at one time is not a problem the Cubs are worried about at this point.

I don't think they are worried about too much talent.... Especially if it's cost controlled talent. However financial concerns and resource allocation are likely in mind at least through the end of this decade. Not as bad as 2011-13, but still there.

Financial concerns and resource allocation are good reasons to do something else in CF next year. They do need SP. There's an opportunity to get a better player in Heyward. They might be able to get Span on a shorter deal. There will be options in the trade market. I still like Ozuna if the Marlins don't ask too much.

 

But none of that has much to do with Almora waiting in the wings.

 

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

I totally agree about not leaving a spot open for one guy. One of my big pet peeves is posters looking to move players just cuz 9 lineup spots are filled or maybe filled.

 

Almora is likely a part of a bigger potential portfolio of players they feel they could fill CF with in the 2016-2018 years besides Fowler. Happ is another. The FA and trade market likely makes up the rest and bulk of it. But having a highly touted internal candidate just wrap up AA is a relatively strong spot to be in rather than the alternative being only the trade and FA market to fall back on. Actually Jackson might help their confidence as well since you can at least pencil in strong D to the spot.

[Guest]

I'm not sure I want the Cubs to pay Fowler for four years regardless of who is in the pipeline. They could be completely void of talent on the farm and it wouldn't sway what I'd want them to do. Anything but a complete stud on the cusp wouldn't change things, either. Almora (and Happ) falls short of that stud level to have any meaningful impact on the decision.

 

Here are my personal preferences for how to fill CF in 2016:

 

1) Heyward

 

-- gap --

 

2) Trade for Ozuna (if the price is not too high)

3) Fowler on the QO

4) Span (if he takes a shortish-term deal)

5) some other trade

6) Fowler on a 4+ year deal

[Guest]

I'm not sure I want the Cubs to pay Fowler for four years regardless of who is in the pipeline. They could be completely void of talent on the farm and it wouldn't sway what I'd want them to do. Anything but a complete stud on the cusp wouldn't change things, either. Almora (and Happ) falls short of that stud level to have any meaningful impact on the decision.

 

Here are my personal preferences for how to fill CF in 2016:

 

1) Heyward

 

-- gap --

 

2) Trade for Ozuna (if the price is not too high)

3) Fowler on the QO

4) Span (if he takes a shortish-term deal)

5) some other trade

6) Fowler on a 4+ year deal

Agreed that Almora doesn't factor into 2016. But just talking about Fowler possibly needing a four year deal kind of brings non-immediate pipeline talent into the discussion as it's probably a discussion about 2017 and 18 at that point.

 

I mean Fowler wasn't even on the radar for 2015 at this point last year. The FO likely feels confident about fallback options for 2016 and then reevaluating if necessary.

[abuck1220]

none of this matters because javy is gonna be the cf next year.

[sneakypower]

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready

 

Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A

[Guest]

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready

 

Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A

Almora is only slightly more relevant because neither is very relevant to the decision making at this point at all. 5% vs 1% may be five times as much, but it's still paltry in the larger picture.

[sneakypower]

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready

 

Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A

Almora is only slightly more relevant because neither is very relevant to the decision making at this point at all. 5% vs 1% may be five times as much, but it's still paltry in the larger picture.

where are you and david gaining this total insight as to how the front office views players in the system

[Guest]

Almora is like 6 to 8 weeks of repeating his 2nd half at Iowa from being the perfect reserve OF complement to Span or Heyward in CF, so there's definitely more nuance than 'Almora didn't hit at Daytona or Tennessee til this July, he's a non-factor'. That said, I don't see why his presence would sway you from getting someone like Fowler. Almora's far from a lock to require a starter's workload in the OF, and they're complementary because Fowler might need to move to a corner as he ages(or to make way for Almora the defensive substitute in-game).

[Guest]

Let me put it this way...Almora is only slightly more relevant for the mid-term CF plans than Happ. Nobody is talking about leaving CF flexible for Happ.

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready

 

Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A

Almora is only slightly more relevant because neither is very relevant to the decision making at this point at all. 5% vs 1% may be five times as much, but it's still paltry in the larger picture.

where are you and david gaining this total insight as to how the front office views players in the system

Logic.

 

Even if they really like Almora, do you believe THAT would be the thing that would stop them from signing Fowler? Or Heyward? Does it merit some small consideration? Sure - the possibility of filling the position in the future for cheap will always be a consideration. But:

 

1. Based on his overall track record Almora is not close to being a stud you save a position for
   
2. Even based on his last two months, he's not at the level of a Bryant that you plan around
   
3. The Cubs are in a totally different position entering 2016 than the past few years. The window is now. The team can't afford to sacrifice a position for a year to wait for a good but not great prospect
   
4. There are a lot of reasons much more valid to not sign Fowler for four years than Albert Almora - which is what Rogers said and kicked off the whole debate

 

 

 

total side note that likely amuses only me...just noticed that there are other options when using the ordered list other than 1, 2, 3, 4.

[ctcf]

We're assuming Dexter gets a QO right?

[Gilby]

Buster Olney said in his podcast today that he hears the Cubs are "heavy, heavy, heavy favorites" to sign Price. He had Kurkjian on who did his usual thing where he's asked to make a prediction, doesn't, and instead gives a super obvious statement. He basically just said Price will get a lot of money. Nightengale was also on and said it will come down to the Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, and Dodgers. He ultimately doesn't think Price winds up with the Cubs. He said Price's preference is the Cardinals, which I had never heard before, but it's Nightengale, so he's probably the only one who has "heard" that.

[Gilby]

We're assuming Dexter gets a QO right?

 

100%

[Guest]

Buster Olney said in his podcast today that he hears the Cubs are "heavy, heavy, heavy favorites" to sign Price. He had Kurkjian on who did his usual thing where he's asked to make a prediction, doesn't, and instead gives a super obvious statement. He basically just said Price will get a lot of money. Nightengale was also on and said it will come down to the Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, and Dodgers. He ultimately doesn't think Price winds up with the Cubs. He said Price's preference is the Cardinals, which I had never heard before, but it's Nightengale, so he's probably the only one who has "heard" that.

 

I feel like Olney's been on Price to the Cubs for like 2 years.

[davell]

Buster Olney said in his podcast today that he hears the Cubs are "heavy, heavy, heavy favorites" to sign Price. He had Kurkjian on who did his usual thing where he's asked to make a prediction, doesn't, and instead gives a super obvious statement. He basically just said Price will get a lot of money. Nightengale was also on and said it will come down to the Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, and Dodgers. He ultimately doesn't think Price winds up with the Cubs. He said Price's preference is the Cardinals, which I had never heard before, but it's Nightengale, so he's probably the only one who has "heard" that.

 

I feel like Olney's been on Price to the Cubs for like 2 years.

 

Olney went to Vanderbilt himself, so there's that anyway.

[Gilby]

I originally didn't think we'd end up with Price after the Lester deal, and was readying for a Fowler and a good but not great pitcher type offseason (which I would be happy with). However, every Chicago writer pretty much saying Fowler is a goner makes me think we're saving up and will be giving out one of the two $200 million contracts this offseason.

[SouthSideRyan]

my god they were going to sign 32 year old russell martin to like a 5 year deal for big money last year...and that was on a team that wasn't established as a contender yet. far from it.

 

would you say kyle schwarber this time last year had a better chance at having a productive/valuable career as a big league catcher than albert almora right now having one as a big league CFer?

 

and remember that this was before schwarber had proven to be too good with the bat to pass up and wait on his development...as recently as 3-4 months ago they were still talking about being committed to him in the long term as a catcher (and also before the emergence of contreras).

Theo can say whatever he wants, everybody knows Schwarber will not be (and never has been projected to be) a full-time catcher.

 

oh ok.

 

We all know only sneaky know that [expletive]

[Lefty]

Price to the Cubs rumors started up way back when they landed Derek Johnson from Vanderbilt. It makes sense in many ways and I think it's going to happen. The Cubs are going to spend big this offseason.

 

Well now that Johnson is gone that factor goes away.