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Posted
Nice to see Cole lose. Question for you guys. Going to the Cubs Dodger games in LA this year. Do you think with a couple days off they set up their rotation to put Kershaw and Greinke against the Giants who they play after us. Right now we are lined up to face both of them.

 

Trying to guess what Mattingly will do is impossible.

 

Pretty interesting. The Dodgers have an off day on Thursday and next Monday. So as of right now, Kershaw is scheduled to pitch tomorrow and not again til next Tuesday. Greinke is schedule Sunday (yesterday), Sunday, and then Saturday. They are basically on a college rotation for the next couple weeks.

 

I could see them skipping Anderson or Wood and going Greinke on Saturday, Kershaw on Sunday. Which would put them game 1 and 2 of the Cubs series, instead of 2 and 3. Then Greinke would be good to go in the final game of the SF series.

Guest
Guests
Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Posted

mediocre night

 

A little better than mediocre. If STL was going to win yet another bogus game at least they beat the team right behind us.

Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

Guest
Guests
Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

Guest
Guests
Posted
i'm trying to figure out why the cubs are only ~6% to win the division while the Pirates are at like 14% despite BP projecting them to only 1.5 more wins than us as of this morning. the answer is probably really obvious and i'm an idiot.
Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

One is 4 games, the other is 8. The team 4 behind you has won 3 World Series in the last 6 years. The team 8 ahead of you has a horseshoe up their ass and has for their franchise history.

Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

 

If the playoffs are just a crap shoot, then all I care about is making them.

 

So I agree with him. The Giants losing means a much greater deal to me than the Cardinals winning.

Guest
Guests
Posted (edited)
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

 

If the playoffs are just a crap shoot, then all I care about is making them.

 

So I agree with him. The Giants losing means a much greater deal to me than the Cardinals winning.

 

it's not that simple

 

making them as a division winner means your odds in that crap shoot are double that of a wild card because the wild card has to get through an additional round.

Edited by David
Posted
i'm trying to figure out why the cubs are only ~6% to win the division while the Pirates are at like 14% despite BP projecting them to only 1.5 more wins than us as of this morning. the answer is probably really obvious and i'm an idiot.

Does remaining opponents record have anything to do with it?

Guest
Guests
Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

One is 4 games, the other is 8. The team 4 behind you has won 3 World Series in the last 6 years. The team 8 ahead of you has a horseshoe up their ass and has for their franchise history.

 

ok so those last two sentences mean absolutely nothing. please stop pretending they do.

 

either way, the giants have like a 15% chance of taking that wild card (before today). pretty unlikely (as is the 6% chance of us winning the division, which i have never denied). I'll worry about them when I have reason to worry about them.

Posted
Giants lose. Great night.

 

mediocre night

Whatever you say. The Cubs just moved a half game closer to making the playoffs and a half game closer to hosting a playoff game.

 

yes, the giants catching the cubs is more likely than the cubs catching the cardinals, but you treat one like it really matters a lot and the other like it's a complete impossibility that should be disregarded. why is that?

 

If the playoffs are just a crap shoot, then all I care about is making them.

 

So I agree with him. The Giants losing means a much greater deal to me than the Cardinals winning.

They haven't made the playoffs in 7 years and nobody had them making the playoffs at this stage of their rebuilding project. Just making the playoffs is a total win for this team for where they're at. And yes, the playoffs are a crapshoot so just making the playoffs gives you a chance at winning it all. Go look at the Royals and Giants last year.

Guest
Guests
Posted
i'm trying to figure out why the cubs are only ~6% to win the division while the Pirates are at like 14% despite BP projecting them to only 1.5 more wins than us as of this morning. the answer is probably really obvious and i'm an idiot.

Does remaining opponents record have anything to do with it?

 

wouldn't that be reflected in the projections?

Guest
Guests
Posted

They haven't made the playoffs in 7 years and nobody had them making the playoffs at this stage of their rebuilding project. Just making the playoffs is a total win for this team for where they're at. And yes, the playoffs are a crapshoot so just making the playoffs gives you a chance at winning it all. Go look at the Royals and Giants last year.

 

 

The first two sentences are meaningless nonsense (this team is what it is today and the last 7 years mean absolutely nothing) and nobody is denying the last two.

Posted

David, I feel like that's not what you were saying the other day. You said you'd just basically pick a team out of a hat rather than trying to guess which one would win it all. But here, it seems like you are saying that the odds are not equal.

 

Not trying to put words in your mouth or misconstrue what you were saying, but felt that was what the convo was about.

 

That said, I agree with it. Winning the division would be way better than winning the wild card. But in just trying to make sure we get to the playoffs, I'm going with the wild card right now. Which means it's far more meaningful when the Giants lose. I'm willing to sacrifice the Cards being the one to beat them.

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