8/17 Other Games

[Sammys Boombox]

Diamondbacks (Hellickson, 4.73) @ Pirates (Cole, 2.48)

Giants (Heston, 3.38) @ Cardinals (Wacha, 2.93)

 

Cardinals -

Pirates 5.0

Cubs 7.5

 

Pirates +2.5

Cubs -

(Dodgers) 1.0

Giants 3.5

(Mets) 5.0

Nationals 9.5

 

If the Cubs go .500 the rest of the way they will finish with 90 wins. The Nationals would have to win at a 115-win pace the rest of the way and the Mets at a 95-win pace for them both to catch us. I was foolish to think we wanted the Giants to win 3 or 4 against the Nationals. Oh well, it's not like it matters what we want.

 

Today starts a 13-game stretch for the Giants against the Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals again. If the Cubs can continue winning series they will likely gain ground in the division or bury the Giants. Big two weeks coming up here.

 

Hypothetical: If a genie came to you and said you could choose to gain 4 games on both the Cardinals and Pirates over the next two weeks but that also meant you'd have to lose 4 games to the Giants would you do it? (Basically, Giants go on a tear and the Cubs play well but get swept by the Giants while the Cardinals and Pirates sucks).

[ctcf]

go giants and dbacks plz

[Guest]

Hypothetical: If a genie came to you and said you could choose to gain 4 games on both the Cardinals and Pirates over the next two weeks but that also meant you'd have to lose 4 games to the Giants would you do it? (Basically, Giants go on a tear and the Cubs play well but get swept by the Giants while the Cardinals and Pirates sucks).

 

Assuming the Dodgers played at least as well as we did also, I wouldn't. It would mean we were only 1.5 games up on the playoffs instead of 3.5. I know we'd be only 3.5 back of St. Louis so we'd be more likely to win the division but would be less likely to make the playoffs. Just get in. The division would be a bonus.

[ctcf]

Also, Matt Williams somehow continues to be employed as a major league manager.

[Sammys Boombox]

Hypothetical: If a genie came to you and said you could choose to gain 4 games on both the Cardinals and Pirates over the next two weeks but that also meant you'd have to lose 4 games to the Giants would you do it? (Basically, Giants go on a tear and the Cubs play well but get swept by the Giants while the Cardinals and Pirates sucks).

 

Assuming the Dodgers played at least as well as we did also, I wouldn't. It would mean we were only 1.5 games up on the playoffs instead of 3.5. I know we'd be only 3.5 back of St. Louis so we'd be more likely to win the division but would be less likely to make the playoffs. Just get in. The division would be a bonus.

 

Just getting in is most important to me, too. I would like to see what the playoff odds would be in that case though. We would be right in the middle of a group of 5 teams where 4 are going to make the playoffs. I would think we would still be 80%+ and our chances of playing in the NLDS would probably be greater than 50% in that scenario. Right now they are not.

[Guest]

Hypothetical: If a genie came to you and said you could choose to gain 4 games on both the Cardinals and Pirates over the next two weeks but that also meant you'd have to lose 4 games to the Giants would you do it? (Basically, Giants go on a tear and the Cubs play well but get swept by the Giants while the Cardinals and Pirates sucks).

 

Assuming the Dodgers played at least as well as we did also, I wouldn't. It would mean we were only 1.5 games up on the playoffs instead of 3.5. I know we'd be only 3.5 back of St. Louis so we'd be more likely to win the division but would be less likely to make the playoffs. Just get in. The division would be a bonus.

 

gotta factor in that that 1 game playoff is worth half what the division title is.

[Guest]

So right now Fangraphs has us at 5.2% for the division, 87.6% for the playoffs and 45.9% for the NLDS.

 

Under that scenario, we'd probably be around 20% for the division. Right now it's 75.0-19.8-5.2 for the three teams. I'd guess it would be something like 65-20-15 or so (Houston is 3.5 up with 72.3% division odds, Mets are 4.5 and 67.7 and LAD are 2.5 and 87.6). We'd be 0.5 back of the Giants at 1.5 up on Pittsburgh. If you say our playoff odds are 80% that means we'd be about 60% for the WC so our NLDS odds would be about 50-50.

 

So slightly less playoff odds but better division and NLDS odds so better WS odds.

[ARCubsFan]

D'Backs 2

Pirates 0

[Sammys Boombox]

2-0 Diamondbacks. Middle of the first. Back-to-back 2-out RBI hits.

[UMFan83]

2-0 Diamondbacks. Middle of the first. Back-to-back 2-out RBI hits.

 

Now let's see how their crappy pitcher does

[Sammys Boombox]

2-0 Diamondbacks. Middle of the first. Back-to-back 2-out RBI hits.

 

Now let's see how their crappy pitcher does

 

Haha. Hellickson with the RBI single. 3-0.

[ARCubsFan]

Just realized that Gerrit Cole is pitching too. Would be really nice if they could pick up a loss with him on the mound.

[Sammys Boombox]

4-0 DBacks

[Sammys Boombox]

Yankees starter Bryan Mitchell took a liner off his face. Left the game.

[Sammys Boombox]

Heyward removed. Hamstring tightness

[ARCubsFan]

Heyward removed. Hamstring tightness

That sucks

[Schwarber Fan]

Steve Clevenger with a 3 run homer for Baltimore, lol.

[Sammys Boombox]

So Peralta stole second. On the field the umpire called him safe saying the fielder never tagged him. Replays were really difficult to say for sure if the tagged him. Definitely nothing conclusive (unless they have some angle that the TV crews did not have). So of course they overturned it. I have no grasp on what is going to get called in replays.

[ARCubsFan]

Steve Clevenger with a 3 run homer for Baltimore, lol.

Damn we lost the Arrieta trade

[ARCubsFan]

Yadier Molina HR

 

1-0 Cardinals

[UMFan83]

Remember folks we're not cheering for the Cardinals, we are cheering against the Giants.

[Guest]

Remember folks we're not cheering for the Cardinals, we are cheering against the Giants.

 

I'm cheering for the giants

[Sammy Sofa]

Remember folks we're not cheering for the Cardinals, we are cheering against the Giants.

 

[expletive] that noise; like David said, let them beat up on the Cubs' real foes right now and then the Cubs can repay them by humiliating them in their own ballpark. It's not like Cubs aren't going to just start an even longer winning streak tomorrow, duh.

[ARCubsFan]

Remember folks we're not cheering for the Cardinals, we are cheering against the Giants.

 

I'm cheering for the giants

That's dumb

[ctcf]

Damnit, Giants.

 

YAY DBACKS YOURE DOING THE GOOD JOB