Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-24-15

[ctcf]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

 

Iowa vs. Tacoma, 1:08 p.m.

Tennessee at Montgomery, 5:35 p.m.

Myrtle Beach vs. Potomac, 5:05 p.m.

South Bend vs. Bowling Green, 6:05 p.m.

 

Probable Starters:

 

Iowa: RHP Donn Roach (50.1 IP, 1.97 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 20 K, 11 BB)

Tennessee: RHP Ivan Pineyro (46.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 47 K, 11 BB)

Myrtle Beach: RHP Tyler Skulina (30 IP, 4.80 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 30 K, 12 BB)

South Bend: RHP Jeremy Null (41.2 IP, 1.73 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 35 K, 2 BB)

[Little Slide Rooter]

Though neither Almore nor Torres have played since their injuries, is the fact that neither have been DL'd yet a good thing, or do they just take longer to evaluate?

[Guest]

ct's been waiting for this day for a long time

 

raisin about to get wally pipped

[ctcf]

Anyone remember the name of that site for minor league stats? I think it has farm in the name.

[Guest]

http://mlbfarm.com/

[davell]

Alcantara HR to lead off the game.

 

Javy bomb his 1st AB too

[Deeg]

Javy has to be in the mix to come back soon - he can clearly help the big league club, but you also don't want him to feel like he's been buried. You wanted adjustments at the plate, and you've clearly gotten them. No question it creates a dilemma, but it's not a bad dilemma to have.

 

I wonder if you could use Baez in a RH platoon, with Bryant playing LF against RHP, and spell Russell and Castro once a week. That would get him to about 50% playing time. Any way you slice it, Maddon is one of the best at making stuff like this work - let's give him the chance.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Donn Roach was pulled following 5 pitches and an injury delay. So that's a shame. I guess.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Javy bomb his 1st AB too

And another one.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Irrelevant Dude

[CyHawk_Cub]

Baez w/ another dong...raising that trade value

[davell]

He's on [expletive] fire. If he keeps his current line up for another 100AB's or so.....

 

Tough [expletive] call-trade him or bring him up?

[Sammy Sofa]

Tradetradetradetrdade. Dazzle some dopey GM with his minor league magic and then sit back and laugh while smoking a big stinky cigar as Baez perpetually flails at the major league level and whoever we get for him is amazing forever.

[davell]

He's 22 and has generational type talent. It's far from a lock he's going to struggle in the majors his whole career. Trading him for ANYONE that's considered available could easily wind up biting us in the ass. I'm OK moving him for the right guy, but I'd be far from comfortable in doing it.

[Irrelevant Dude]

To be fair, it sounds like pretty much everyone in Iowa's lineup was ripping the opposing pitcher, so take Javy's home runs with a grain of salt.

[Sammy Sofa]

Trading him for ANYONE that's considered available

 

That's not what I meant by "whoever," you loon. Nobody wants to just dump him; I want to trade him because I think he'll be ridiculously streaky at best and I think he can be a huge part of a monster trade.

[sneakypower]

He's 22 and has generational type talent.

what could you possibly see his upside as, to use such wild hyperbole

 

i think we're mostly all going to be really jazzed if he's approaching .300 OBP and mid-20s HR with positive defensive impact, but that's so far divorced from your lofty praise that i can't really fathom what your fantasies for him are

[Guest]

I don't know if there's really a ton of urgency to get Baez back to the MLB roster. He has had similar stretches like this before:

 

July 2014 at Iowa: .300/.344/.655, 24% K%, 6% BB%, 69% contact

May 2015 at Iowa: .325/.409/.481, 24% K%, 9% BB%, 71% contact

 

That May line is only getting better since it excludes today, and peripherally it's a bit better regardless, but it's not a day/night turnaround that shouts 'call me up this instant' either. There may be non-statistical progress Baez has made/not-made that is a better determinant, but I'm not in a big hurry to see him in Chicago unless they've decided that Bryant is not playing 3B again.

[davell]

Trading him for ANYONE that's considered available

 

That's not what I meant by "whoever," you loon. Nobody wants to just dump him; I want to trade him because I think he'll be ridiculously streaky at best and I think he can be a huge part of a monster trade.

 

Nah, by ANYONE, I actually meant good players. Hamels, whoever else with more than half a season of control winds up on the block.

 

I know you're not saying trade him for the first half ass decent guy to come along. I'm just saying there's a decent chance that when we do trade him, it's still very possible it comes back to haunt us.

[Sammy Sofa]

Trading him for ANYONE that's considered available

 

That's not what I meant by "whoever," you loon. Nobody wants to just dump him; I want to trade him because I think he'll be ridiculously streaky at best and I think he can be a huge part of a monster trade.

 

Nah, by ANYONE, I actually meant good players. Hamels, whoever else with more than half a season of control winds up on the block.

 

I know you're not saying trade him for the first half ass decent guy to come along. I'm just saying there's a decent chance that when we do trade him, it's still very possible it comes back to haunt us.

 

I only think that's likely if they trade him for peanuts or if they key player they get for him suffers some kind of catastrophe injury. Even if he pans out he's likely to of the "pretty good variety;" "generational talent" is more than a tad hyperbolic

[davell]

He's 22 and has generational type talent.

what could you possibly see his upside as, to use such wild hyperbole

 

i think we're mostly all going to be really jazzed if he's approaching .300 OBP and mid-20s HR with positive defensive impact, but that's so far divorced from your lofty praise that i can't really fathom what your fantasies for him are

 

He's not going to play SS for us under damn near any circumstance at this point. But that doesn't mean he can't play it for someone else. I think his upside is probably a low .300's OBP with 35-40HR some years.(not saying he'll get there, but can't see why it's not possible either)

 

You wrote him off before he even reached the majors based on his contact rate/K rate. It's not a lock he'll completely fix himself, but I'd use these percentages for his outcomes.....

 

My best case-(top 10 player in MLB)10%

4 WAR average type in his prime-20%

2-3 WAR average in his prime-30%

1-2 WAR average in prime(longterm bench guy)-25%

Under 1 WAR average-up and down guy until he's lost forever-15%

[sneakypower]

He's not going to play SS for us under damn near any circumstance at this point. But that doesn't mean he can't play it for someone else. I think his upside is probably a low .300's OBP with 35-40HR some years.(not saying he'll get there, but can't see why it's not possible either)

 

You wrote him off before he even reached the majors based on his contact rate/K rate. It's not a lock he'll completely fix himself, but I'd use these percentages for his outcomes.....

 

My best case-(top 10 player in MLB)10%

4 WAR average type in his prime-20%

2-3 WAR average in his prime-30%

1-2 WAR average in prime(longterm bench guy)-25%

Under 1 WAR average-up and down guy until he's lost forever-15%

in the last calendar year, 4 players have hit 35 HR or more (all were at least 6'2 and 230lb); i'm just going to say i don't think you're properly calibrated to how shitty this dumb offensive environment is now

 

i don't remember specifically 'writing him off', but i've been consistent saying it seems other people's daydreams about him seem to be much higher than my expectations and he'd probably be best-served as trade bait if opposing GMs felt the same way

[davell]

He walked his last AB by the way.

 

Sneaky-I admit to not knowing there were only 4 guys that hit 35+ last year. That said, rightly or wrongly, it doesn't scare me off from saying I could still see that as his upside. Obviously, upsides aren't normally hit either.

 

I'll back off generational, but top 10 player in the game possibility? I do think his upside remains that.

[Clem Fandango]

I just think it's silly to write off someone so young who has truck loads of potential.

[ScrubMD]

Javy has rare raw power and plays (I think) pretty good SS. If he is making strides with contact and continues to do so, he could easily be a top 10 player in the league. If I had to put money on it, I definitely wouldn't bet on him reaching that potential, but it's not a wild fantasy.

[Guest]

If Javy can continue increasing his walk rate while decreasing his whiff rate and hit for power, there's no reason he has to be a low .300's obp guy. He hits the ball hard enough and has enough speed to have a pretty decent babip. So, here's a path to Javy as a .348 OBP:

 

PA 600

HR 0.05

BB 0.1

K 0.25

BABIP 0.33

 

HR 30

BB 60

K 150

BIP 360

Hits 148.8

BA 0.276

OBP 0.348

 

Obviously, that includes quite a bit of improvement for Javy. But we're talking about what he can be and none of that is out of the realm of possibility for him.