Cubs 2015 #12 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #12 prospect.

 

Cast votes for the players you think would be deserving at #12. You can vote for up to two players. This is done because at this point, there will start to be greater diversity in whom people may feel is deserving. Voting for multiple players helps to gain greater resolution in the voting when there are many choices and relatively few voters. Ideally, the votes would be weighted, but that isn't possible with the board software.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

#6 Billy McKinney

#7 Gleyber Torres

#8 Albert Almora

#9 Pierce Johnson

#10 Duane Underwood

#11 Jen-Ho Tseng

[Guest]

I went with Stinnett and Vogelbach.

 

I've been through my reasons for Stinnett. I do think Vogelbach will hit and hit well. I really see him as a left handed Billy Butler. There is a lot of value there.

[Cubswin11]

Stinnett and Jimenez

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Stinnett and Jimenez

[toonsterwu]

Let's see, two votes.

 

First is Stinnett. I think he should've been on ahead of Tseng, and I think that there's a case for him ahead of Pierce Johnson (of course, I have Underwood ahead of them all). There's a lot to like - the potential for 3 above average pitches, perhaps plus, with some action on it. There's the potential for possibly a bit more, as he's a relatively raw college arm. The big, physical frame is nice, and the raw athleticism is also a positive.

 

Then comes the tough part. I get the vote for Eloy Jimenez - the massive upside is a factor, but boy, he was so green last year. I like Carson Sands as an option as well. My gut feeling is that Vogelbach will hit, but the problem is, he's a guy who really has to murder the ball and prove it each year on account of position/body. He's sort of an odd "prove it" guy for me. I think of Kyle Blanks, who had a lot more pop, but never put it together (granted, not exactly a comp, as there are some distinct differences, Blanks was much taller, a bit more athletic). There's a lot of first basemen type that hit in the low minors, so I really want to see Vogelbach light it up in AA and show more pop. Otherwise, I think I am having a tendency to find an excuse to rank someone ahead of him. Zagunis could also be in the mix. I'll go with my initial feeling, and that's Victor Caratini. As noted, I'm a believer that there's a bit more pop (the away line with the Braves was solid, power-wise), and some pre-draft reports indicated the potential for a bit more pop. I vaguely recall some review suggesting that he might never tap into all his power, due to his swing (could be wrong on this), but he doesn't need a lot of pop - just enough. I think Caratini will hit enough, and it really comes down to if he develops defensively, and so far, it sounds good. A long ways to go, but he's an intriguing catching prospect with some offensive upside.

Edited March 8, 2015 by toonsterwu

[Guest]

I really couldn't pick one after Stinnett so I left it at him for now. Sands and Steele in tandem are probably next, with some thought to Vogelbach and Zastryzny.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prediction: Armando Rivero puts up more career WAR than 7 of the top 12 prospects on this list. At least.

[craig]

Easy one for me, real separation after these two. Stinnett and Rivero.

 

I'm with hairy duck, Rivero has a lot to like. A putaway killer slider, and he's shown it's a killer pitch all the way through AAA. Really fast fastball, so getting to 2-strike counts won't be that rare for him. His stuff is going to work in the majors. Got a chance to be a very good reliever, which are invaluable.

 

In prospect rankings, he's the victim of anti-reliever bias, and anti-age bias.

 

Stinnett has a chance to be a really good starter. A possible control artist with really good slider and strong fastball, with the chance to be durable.

 

Both of these guys have chances to be very, very valuable and effective major leaguers who contribute to a lot of wins.

[craig]

Personally I'm surprised to see Vogelbach getting support this early. he's still a long ways off for me.

 

Hope I'm wrong. This year is really a put-up-or-get-forgotten type of year, probably. He's been getting along in prospect rankings based on his hitting, even though he hasn't really hit all that much for the past two seasons. To make it as a DH/1B, you better be really good offensively. Hitting teens-HR's per year in A-ball doesn't quite come close to doing it for me. A lot of evaluators who projected his HS power favorably still think it's there and still project HR's, and others who have watched BP have said he's got plenty of power. But somehow he's got to boost his in-game HR output to make it, given his defensive status. .787 and .824 OPS's the last two years, that just doesn't really seem like top-15 production for a DH/1B who wasn't really all that young for his league.

 

He better boost that a lot this year or I'm guessing his believers will increasingly lose interest.

[toonsterwu]

craig, mildly curious how far away he is for you (as you note "long"). I don't think he's next for me (Caratini would be my next choice, and mid-teens is when I start going for high upside pen arms most of the times, so Rivero and some of the young arms are probably in the mix after Caratini for me, but Vogelbach is probably within a top 20 if I worked one out).

 

I do agree with your base premises, as I noted above - as a corner guy who doesn't profile to the OF(unlike say, a Kyle Blanks), Vogelbach needs to mash, otherwise it becomes easy to find reasons to put guys over him, no matter if he puts up decent numbers. The issue is, the scouting reports still seem positive on him being an average hitter with plus power potential, but it doesn't come out in games (I half wonder if he might be a little too disciplined to tap into that power). Those reports are enough for me to keep him in the top 20, and hence consideration in these areas, but at a certain point, as you note, he's got to show it.

 

I wonder if he might be more a left-handed version of Billy Butler, a guy who might find some use on AL teams that might need a cheap DH option. Still, we're sort of stuck with Vogelbach in the sense that we have to see if he can mash in AA, as it seems unlikely he has much value now, but if he fails to mash in AA, he'll probably never have much value. So, I do agree next year is sort of make-or-break for him.

 

Playing it out in my head, it really wouldn't surprise me if Vogelbach eventually was one of those Mark Canha Rule 5 type picks, a guy an AL club plucks up thinking, hey, here's a decent bat, perhaps a possible cheap DH option that they could use for a few years. Hard to see Vogelbach ever protected unless his bat really ticks up a few notches on the power production front.

[craig]

I've got Vogelbach at 21, although arguably that's still too high.

 

Behind Jiminez/Sands/Steele/Cease/Zagunis/Caratini/Daury Torrez, but still ahead of guys like Zastryzny, Blackburn, Clifton, Hannemann, Conway, Mitchell, Baez, Paniagua, Rademacher.

 

Vogelbach is a nice, disciplined W/K hitter. Might end up playing in Japan or playing in some Indy league for a long time. But hitting .268 without serious HR's in A-ball probably doesnt project to getting him a long-term big-league 1B/DH job.

 

This is the year for him. Can't blame anything on being young; or adapting to full-season; or "working on something"; or to Florida State League. Hit 24 HR's while keeping the rest of his profile, he's on the map. But another 16 HR summer and he's fading fast.

[Bilbo161]

I went with Stinnett and Zagunis (too early?). I agree with everyone on Stinnett. I especially like the low wear and tear on the arm going with all that talent. Zagunis has the plate discipline that seems so hard to come by these days and can play almost anywhere. My dream is he becomes a poor man's Craig Biggio.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm holding out hope that Eloy is our #1 in a couple years.

[rawaction]

Easy one for me, real separation after these two. Stinnett and Rivero.

 

I'm with hairy duck, Rivero has a lot to like. A putaway killer slider, and he's shown it's a killer pitch all the way through AAA. Really fast fastball, so getting to 2-strike counts won't be that rare for him. His stuff is going to work in the majors. Got a chance to be a very good reliever, which are invaluable.

 

In prospect rankings, he's the victim of anti-reliever bias, and anti-age bias.

 

Stinnett has a chance to be a really good starter. A possible control artist with really good slider and strong fastball, with the chance to be durable.

 

Both of these guys have chances to be very, very valuable and effective major leaguers who contribute to a lot of wins.

 

My two votes went here as well. Same reasoning. Jimenez is probably next. And also agree I'd have Vogelbach around mid-to-late teens. 15-18.

[ctcf]

Really surprised Sands isn't getting more love.

[Bilbo161]

Really surprised Sands isn't getting more love.

 

Sands is in my next couple. He didn't pitch too much after signing but everything I've heard is positive. I wonder if the Cubs like his brother, who is in this years draft.

[craig]

I think I'll be voting Rivero and Sands for my next few votes, until one of them "wins" and comes off the board.

[ctcf]

I'd be willing to bet Sands is a top 5-7 player next time we do this

[Bilbo161]

I'd be willing to bet Sands is a top 5-7 player next time we do this

 

It's going to be interesting to see how all the arms shake out from the last few drafts Underwood, Stinnett, and Sands will all be positioning for top 5 status with Torrez and Jimenez. We might even have more pitchers in the top ten than position players at some point. One thing's for sure. I'm going to enjoy watching them get there.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Bilbo161

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

why is everyone talking about Sands and not Steele