2015 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[bukie]

Auburn continues to show how bad the SEC is outside Kentucky.

[CubInOK]

I've noticed that there isn't much difference between Tulsa and Murray State's profile, but that says more about Tulsa than Murray State.

Eh. I think Tulsa has a better resume, but this is mostly academic. Tulsa still hasn't lost to Houston yet, or have as many embarrassing losses as Murray State, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tulsa missed out anyway. They're in that blob of like 15 bubble teams playing for like 6 or 7 spots.

 

Better argument: if Tulsa gets by Houston tonight, but loses to Cincinnati tomorrow, and Temple loses to SMU tomorrow, who gets picked? Both? Neither?

[SouthSideRyan]

Tulsa lost to a D2 or D3 school. I wouldnt put them in if they beat SMU

[bukie]

UNC Central just lost in the MEAC semis, leaving the winner of the MEAC as a terrible team.

[bukie]

My second 16:

 

17. North Carolina

18. Utah

19. West Virginia

20. Providence

21. Georgetown

22. Butler

23. Arkansas

24. VCU

25. Davidson (A-10)

26. SMU (AAC)

27. Ohio State

28. Iowa

29. Oregon

30. San Diego State (MWC)

31. Michigan State

32. Cincinnati

 

 

The rest of my field:

 

33. Texas

34. St. John's

35. Oklahoma St.

36. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

37. Georgia

38. Xavier

39. Purdue

40. Mississippi

41. Indiana

42. LSU

43. Boise St.

44. Wofford (Southern)

45. Valpo (Horizon)

46. BYU

47. UCLA

48. Dayton

49. North Carolina St.

50. Colorado St.

51. Louisiana Tech (CUSA)

52. UC Davis (Big West)

53. Yale (Ivy)

54. Buffalo (MAC)

55. Georgia St. (Sun Belt)

56. Albany (America East)

57. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

58. New Mexico St. (WAC)

59. Northeastern (CAA)

60. Norfolk St. (MEAC)

 

 

Also, I suggest bumping the MEAC champ down into the end of the play-in.

[bukie]

Virginia lost to UNC in the ACC semis, which could be enough to bump them from the top line.

[bukie]

Also, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the committee gives Zona the 1 seed out west if they win the Pac-12 tournament.

[SouthSideRyan]

Arizona absolutely does not deserve that top seed. I'll have to reexamine UVA when I get home but to be fair I had them 2 and Nova 5. Agreed with that MEAC champ getting. Sent to to the moon

 

ETA we'll need to bump Manhattan below Texas southern so one of the SWAC/MEAC is out of he play in, but I'm more than in favor of(love TX SOs wins)

[RynoRules]

I don't think that loss should bump UVA off the 1st line. It should for Duke.

[SouthSideRyan]

I had VA ahead of Duke so I'd agree but as a team we have Duke 2, UVA 3, I can't support Duke dropping below UVA based on tonight's losses. I guess I say VA TO 5

[abuck1220]

glad iowa st won...concerned ND or unc might take their 3 seed.

[bukie]

Other late games:

Norfolk State, the 2 seed in the MEAC, was also upset yesterday, so the MEAC champ (Hampton or Delaware State) will for sure be in the play-in game.

UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara, the top 2 seeds in the Big West, were upset last night, so the Big West champ will be either Hawaii or UC Irvine.

[RynoRules]

glad iowa st won...concerned ND or unc might take their 3 seed.

 

I think the winner still might.

 

EDIT: Take it back - if UNC wins, they might ascend to a 3 seed. ND is probably already there and might be in the discussion for a 2 if they win.

[RynoRules]

Pomeroy's Top 20 as of this morning:

 

Kentucky

Arizona

Virginia

Wisconsin

Villanova

Gonzaga

Duke

Utah

Kansas

Oklahoma

North Carolina

Northern Iowa

Notre Dame

Wichita St

Baylor

Iowa St

Michigan St

Louisville

Texas (!!!)

Ohio State

 

http://kenpom.com

 

So presumably:

 

1's: UK, UVA, Wis., Ariz.

2's: Duke, Gonzaga, 'Nova, Utah

3's: UNC, KU, Oklahoma, No. Iowa

4's: ND, Wch. St,, Baylor, Iowa St.

 

The only place I think the committee will disagree is having UNC as a 3 and ND as a 4. ND is a 3 right now. UNC is probably still a 4, though my guess is closer to a "3.5". If UNC beats ND, they are probably both 3's. If ND wins they become a "2.5', but likely finish as a 3, and UNC settles into a 4.

 

Also, I realize we can make argument for Iowa St. as a 3. Do they replace No. Iowa?

[SouthSideRyan]

I cant imagine Utah would be a 2

[bukie]

The committee doesn't follow kenpom at all, it follows RPI (which is worse, but they do). Also, this committee already has a top 16 and I'll have the next 8-12 out shortly after running some errands this morning.

[RynoRules]

The committee doesn't follow kenpom at all, it follows RPI (which is worse, but they do). Also, this committee already has a top 16 and I'll have the next 8-12 out shortly after running some errands this morning.

 

I know, I was just playing along with Ken because I like what he does and am always interested to see how the final bracket differs from his numbers.

[RynoRules]

I cant imagine Utah would be a 2

 

Good point - I missed that. That's probably KU's #2.

[JonJayCutler]

UNI deserves to be a 3 (biased of course), and probably would have been had Iowa State, UNC, and Notre Dame not won these games the past couple days.

 

But as long as we're no lower than a 4 and stay out of Kentucky's bracket, I'll be happy.

[abuck1220]

uni will not/should not be ahead of iowa st. iowa st has 12 top 50 wins, uni has 3.

 

hopefully iowa st shakes out to be the best of the b12 blob of ou/baylor/iowa st, which I think will ensure them a 3. yesterday definitely helped

[Andy]

ND probably ought to be considered for a 2 with a win tonight, but it's hard to find someone currently there to bump either.

[RynoRules]

Lunardi has ND as a 3 (MidWest) and UNC as a 4 (East) as of this morning.

 

1's are UK, Nova, Duke and UVA. 2's are KU, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Arizona. 3's are ND, Maryland, Iowa St and Oklahoma. 4's are UNC, No. Iowa, Baylor and L'ville.

 

I would think UNC has a shot to bump Oklahoma if they win, but we'll see.

[abuck1220]

ND should not be a 2.

[bukie]

Current S-Curve:

1. Kentucky

2. Villanova

3. Wisconsin

4. Duke

5. Virginia

6. Arizona

7. Gonzaga (WCC)

8. Kansas

9. Baylor

10. Maryland

11. Iowa State

12. Northern Iowa

13. Louisville

14. Oklahoma

15. Wichita State

16. Notre Dame

17. North Carolina

18. Utah

19. West Virginia

20. Georgetown

21. Butler

22. Providence

23. Arkansas

24. SMU

25. Ohio State

26. Iowa

27. VCU

28. Michigan State

...

51. Yale (Ivy)

52. Buffalo (MAC)

53. Georgia St. (Sun Belt)

54. California-Irvine (Big West)

55. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

56. Northeastern (CAA)

57. UAB (CUSA)

58. Albany (AEast)

59. New Mexico St. (WAC)

60. Coastal Carolina (Big South)

61. North Dakota State (Summit)

62. Belmont (OVC)

63. North Florida (Atlantic Sun)

64. SWAC (Tx Southern)

65. Manhattan (MAAC)

66. Lafayette (Patriot)

67. Robert Morris (NEC)

68. MEAC (Delaware State)

Edited March 14, 2015 by bukie

[bukie]

For today/tonight:

- Rank the following teams in order:

San Diego St.

Davidson

Cincinnati

Oregon

Georgia

Oklahoma St.

St. John's

Texas

Purdue

Indiana

Xavier

UCLA

Boise St.

Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

North Carolina St.

LSU

 

-- Rank these teams in order (6 spots for 13 teams, including the 2 auto bids):

Ole Miss

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Wofford (Southern)

Dayton

Colorado St

Temple

BYU

Miami FL

Tulsa

Illinois

Texas A&M

Stanford

UConn

Edited March 14, 2015 by bukie