2015 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[Rex Buckingham]

yeah, no way Murray State has an argument to be in

[bukie]

Yeah, I don't see a scenario where Murray State or Iona gets an at-large bid. Same, really, for the Ivy loser and the Horizon loser.

[bukie]

Gonzaga, North Dakota State, and Valpo clinch auto bids tonight. Green Bay...ehh, probably too little, too late.

[bukie]

Current state of the board:

 

Auto bids (32):

AAC

America East (Albany/Stony Brook)

ACC

North Florida (Atlantic Sun)

A-10

Big 12

Big East

Big Sky

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

Big Ten

Big West

Northeastern (CAA)

C-USA

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Ivy (Yale/Harvard)

Manhattan (MAAC)

MAC

MEAC

Northern Iowa (MVC)

MWC

Robert Morris (NEC)

Belmont (OVC)

Pac 12

Patriot (Lafayette/American)

SEC

Southland

Wofford (Southern)

North Dakota State (Summit)

SWAC

Sun Belt

Gonzaga (WCC)

WAC

 

At-Large Pool (70 teams for 36-48 spots)

AAC: Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, Temple, Tulsa

ACC: Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia

A-10: Davidson, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, UMass, VCU

B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

B12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia

Big East: Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Villanova, Xavier

CUSA: Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion

Horizon: Green Bay

Ivy: Harvard, Yale

MAC: Buffalo

MVC: Illinois State, Wichita State

MWC: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Utah

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southland: Stephen F Austin

WCC: BYU, Saint Mary's

Edited March 11, 2015 by bukie

[bukie]

Next step: Rank the top 16 teams overall, and the bottom 16 teams in the at-large pool.

[bukie]

Also, pop quiz: Name two teams currently in the WAC. Yeesh.

[bukie]

And just to help along the process, here's the KenPom top 25 teams organized by tier performance, as I did last year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/nRiK8i8.png

 

Explanation: A T1 game is a home game against the top 25, neutral against the top 50, or road against the top 75. A T2 game is home vs. 26-60, neutral against 51-100, or road against 76-175. T3 is everything outside that. The PP numbers are scoring and opposition scoring per possession, with the margin posted the column after.

[SouthSideRyan]

Also, pop quiz: Name two teams currently in the WAC. Yeesh.

 

It's all the ex-Great West, i.e. worst teams in the NCAA without a conference right?

 

Chicago State and...Utah Valley St?

[SouthSideRyan]

I thought Nova was sneaky great all year, but I'm still having trouble putting them over Wisconsin for that 4th 1 seed. (I've got Kentucky, Duke, UVA locked in that order) I do have a pretty substantial drop off after these 5.

[bukie]

I've got an easy top 7: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Villanova, Gonzaga. After that, there the Big 12 conglomerate of Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor, then hell if I know.

[Andy]

Also, pop quiz: Name two teams currently in the WAC. Yeesh.

 

It's all the ex-Great West, i.e. worst teams in the NCAA without a conference right?

 

Chicago State and...Utah Valley St?

I know Grand Canyon is in it because there was a big hubbub about a for-profit university being in Division I.

[SouthSideRyan]

Next step: Rank the top 16 teams overall, and the bottom 16 teams in the at-large pool.

 

To be clear we're ranking the bottom 16 from the list of 70 above right?

[bukie]

Also, pop quiz: Name two teams currently in the WAC. Yeesh.

 

It's all the ex-Great West, i.e. worst teams in the NCAA without a conference right?

 

Chicago State and...Utah Valley St?

I know Grand Canyon is in it because there was a big hubbub about a for-profit university being in Division I.

Yeah it's basically New Mexico State and the dregs of division 1.

[bukie]

Next step: Rank the top 16 teams overall, and the bottom 16 teams in the at-large pool.

 

To be clear we're ranking the bottom 16 from the list of 70 above right?

Yeah we'll handle the dregs of the auto bid pool tomorrow.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looks like you forgot Utah in the Pac-12

[bukie]

Looks like you forgot Utah in the Pac-12

I did run analytics on them though. Utah to me is one of those teams that beats up on bad teams in a bad conference and is overrated as a result.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looks like you forgot Utah in the Pac-12

I did run analytics on them though. Utah to me is one of those teams that beats up on bad teams in a bad conference and is overrated as a result.

 

Yeah, I don't think they're as good as their KenPom #s either.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Mountain West got really bad in a hurry.

[bukie]

The Mountain West got really bad in a hurry.

San Jose State might just be the worst team in D1.

[SouthSideRyan]

Haha, 0 D1 wins.

[bukie]

Over 28 years of conference tournaments, Air Force is 5-28.

[bukie]

My top 16:

 

 

Kentucky

Virginia

Villanova

Duke

Wisconsin

Arizona

Gonzaga (WCC)

Kansas

Baylor

Northern Iowa (MVC)

Iowa St.

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

Louisville

Utah

Wichita St.

 

[bukie]

Lafayette wins the Patriot League.

[bukie]

S-Curve top 8:

1. Kentucky

2. Duke

3. Virginia

4. Villanova

5. Wisconsin

6. Arizona

7. Gonzaga

8. Kansas

[bukie]

8 teams taken off the at-large board:

Massachusetts

Harvard

Yale

Louisiana Tech

Pitt

TCU

Green Bay

Minnesota