2015 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[bukie]

Current state of the board:

 

S-Curve:

1. Kentucky

2. Duke

3. Virginia

4. Villanova

5. Wisconsin

6. Arizona

7. Gonzaga (WCC)

8. Kansas

 

Other Auto bids (31):

AAC

America East (Albany/Stony Brook)

ACC

North Florida (Atlantic Sun)

A-10

Big 12

Big East

Big Sky

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

Big Ten

Big West

Northeastern (CAA)

C-USA

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Ivy (Yale/Harvard)

Manhattan (MAAC)

MAC

MEAC

Northern Iowa (MVC)

MWC

Robert Morris (NEC)

Belmont (OVC)

Pac 12

Lafayette (Patriot)

SEC

Southland

Wofford (Southern)

North Dakota State (Summit)

SWAC

Sun Belt

WAC

 

At-Large Pool (56 teams for 29-41 spots)

AAC: Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, Temple, Tulsa

ACC: Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame

A-10: Davidson, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU

B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

B12: Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, West Virginia

Big East: Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier

CUSA: Old Dominion

MAC: Buffalo

MVC: Illinois State, Wichita State

MWC: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Pac-12: Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Utah

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southland: Stephen F Austin

WCC: BYU, Saint Mary's

[bukie]

Next:

- Top 16 teams available (not including the 8 in the S-Curve)

- Next 16 teams available

- Bottom 12 auto bids (assume best available team in unfinished conference tourneys)

- Bottom 16 teams in at-large pool, since we're still 15 teams heavy at least.

[bukie]

I just realized that everyone participating in this is repping Illinois, so go ahead and include them wherever you think they should go and if we overrated them, oh well.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just realized that everyone participating in this is repping Illinois, so go ahead and include them wherever you think they should go and if we overrated them, oh well.

 

Can I just not include them please?

[bukie]

Not a good day for bubbles.

[bukie]

Finally had time, so here's analytics for the rest of the at-large board:

 

Next 25 KP:

http://i.imgur.com/33s2ios.png

 

Last 16 in the pool:

http://i.imgur.com/Ta4CI5S.png

[Rex Buckingham]

Next:

- Top 16 teams available (not including the 8 in the S-Curve)

 

Maryland

Baylor

Iowa State

Northern Iowa

Oklahoma

Utah

Notre Dame

Louisville

Wichita State

North Carolina

West Virginia

Arkansas

SMU

Butler

Georgetown

 

- Next 16 teams available

 

Providence

Ohio State

Michigan State

SDSU

Iowa

Cincinnati

VCU

Davidson

Xavier

Dayton

Boise State

St John's

Oregon

LSU

Purdue

OK State

 

- Bottom 12 auto bids (assume best available team in unfinished conference tourneys)

 

Bottom 12 (Worst to best)

Northeast - Robert Morris

ASun - N Florida

Patriot - Lafayette

SWAC - Tx Southern?

MAAC - Manahattan

Big South - Coastal Carolina

WAC - NM State?

America East - Albany?

MEAC - North Carolina Central

Colonial - Northeastern

OVC - Belmont

Summit - ND State

 

- Bottom 16 teams in at-large pool, since we're still 15 teams heavy at least.

 

Bottom 16 (Best to worst)

Miami FL

Colorado State

UCLA

Richmond

Uconn

Illinois State

Arizona State

St Mary's

Stephen F Austin

Rhode Island

Old Dominion

Buffalo

Stanford

Vanderbilt

Alabama

Florida

 

[RynoRules]

I'd say you can safely take Miami out, barring intervention by a "higher power". I realize ND is very good, but Miami can't hit from anywhere beyond 10 feet, they don't rebound well, and play flat-out stupid on the defensive end. They look like Juan Pierre trying to catch a fly ball.

[Andy]

I'd say you can safely take Miami out, barring intervention by a "higher power". I realize ND is very good, but Miami can't hit from anywhere beyond 10 feet, they don't rebound well, and play flat-out stupid on the defensive end. They look like Juan Pierre trying to catch a fly ball.

They are playing basically exactly the opposite of what they did in the first half of the regular-season matchup, where they were hitting everything they chucked up.

[RynoRules]

Of course since I posted that, ND forgot how to play defense and Miami has switched to 3-2 zone look on D.

[OleMissCub]

Ole Miss is toast.

[bukie]

My next top 16:

 

Maryland

Northern Iowa (MVC)

Iowa St.

Louisville

Baylor

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

North Carolina

Wichita St.

West Virginia

SMU

Utah

Providence

Butler

Georgetown

VCU

 

 

The next 16 after that:

 

Arkansas

Davidson

San Diego St.

Colorado St.

Oregon

Iowa

St. John's

Stephen F. Austin

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Cincinnati

Dayton

Boise St.

Texas

Temple

Oklahoma St.

 

 

Bottom 16 in the pool:

 

Miami FL

UCLA

Rhode Island

Buffalo

Illinois

Mississippi

Texas A&M

Stanford

Richmond

Illinois St.

Saint Mary's

Connecticut

Vanderbilt

Alabama

Arizona St.

Florida

 

 

Bottom 12 auto bids (seeds 15-16):

 

SWAC

Lafayette (Patriot)

Robert Morris (NEC)

North Florida (A-Sun)

North Dakota St. (Summit)

Belmont (OVC)

Manhattan (MAAC)

Big Sky

America East

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

Northeastern (CAA)

MEAC (only if UNC Central wins)

 

[RynoRules]

Ole Miss is toast.

 

Yeah, that was a very bad loss.

[bukie]

Next 8 on S-Curve

9. Baylor

10. Maryland

11. Iowa State

12. Northern Iowa

13. Louisville

14. Oklahoma

15. Wichita State

16. Notre Dame

[bukie]

Bottom 8 on S-Curve

61. Coastal Carolina (Big South)

62. North Dakota State (Summit)

63. Belmont (OVC)

64. North Florida (Atlantic Sun)

65. Manhattan (MAAC)

66. SWAC (Tx Southern)

67. Lafayette (Patriot)

68. Robert Morris (NEC)

[bukie]

Teams off the at large board:

Florida

Arizona State

Stanford

Vanderbilt

Alabama

Saint Mary's

Richmond

Buffalo

Rhode Island

Illinois State

[bukie]

I'll clean this up later when I don't have to type via phone, but next steps:

 

-Rank the following 16 teams:

North Carolina

Utah

Georgetown

Butler

West Virginia

SMU

Providence

Arkansas

Iowa

VCU

Ohio State

San Diego State

Michigan State

Davidson

Cincinnati

Oregon

 

-Rank the rest of the field including the rest of the auto bids.

[Rex Buckingham]

I'll clean this up later when I don't have to type via phone, but next steps:

 

-Rank the following 16 teams:

North Carolina

Utah

Georgetown

Butler

West Virginia

SMU

Providence

Arkansas

Iowa

VCU

Ohio State

San Diego State

Michigan State

Davidson

Cincinnati

Oregon

 

-Rank the rest of the field including the rest of the auto bids.

 

 

Can only do the first part because of a time crunch, but I've got it like this:

 

 

Utah

North Carolina

West Virginia

Arkansas

SMU

Butler

Georgetown

Providence

Ohio State

Michigan State

SDSU

Iowa

Cincinnati

VCU

Davidson

Oregon

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll clean this up later when I don't have to type via phone, but next steps:

 

-Rank the following 16 teams:

North Carolina

Utah

Georgetown

Butler

West Virginia

SMU

Providence

Arkansas

Iowa

VCU

Ohio State

San Diego State

Michigan State

Davidson

Cincinnati

Oregon

 

-Rank the rest of the field including the rest of the auto bids.

 

You want every at-large eligible for "the rest" or just enough to fit 68?

[bukie]

Just enough to fill 68 is fine. Just don't forget to include all the auto bids. If my addition is right, that would be a list of 28 teams.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wound up putting like 4 teams I had in my bottom 16 in the field after yesterday's performances and another look at everyone. Ick.

 

It got to the point that I reconsidered Illinois

[SouthSideRyan]

Sending over a preliminary list as I have to hammer something out at work by the end of the night and not sure I'll have the time. If I do, I'll reassess after every other team Illinois needed to lose continues to.

[bukie]

I've noticed that there isn't much difference between Tulsa and Murray State's profile, but that says more about Tulsa than Murray State.

[bukie]

Also, Illinois is probably in the field with a win yesterday, as their profile is still borderline even now.

[SouthSideRyan]

Also, Illinois is probably in the field with a win yesterday, as their profile is still borderline even now.

 

I don't think there's any doubt. None of my bottom teams could match Illinois's 2nd best win, and Illinois beat all their worst losses.