BA's MWL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Only one Cub made the list. They definitely preferred sheer stuff to advanced pitchability, seeing no Tseng on here.

 

18. Duane Underwood, rhp, Kane County (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Marietta, Ga., 2012 (2).

 

On a Kane County staff that dominated the league, Underwood was the starter with the best stuff.

 

Most of the Cougars’ pitchers hit their spots and kept hitters off-balance with offspeed stuff. Underwood, on the other hand, could blow batters away at his best with a 93-96 mph fastball and a downer curveball that shows the potential to develop into an above-average pitch.

 

Underwood shows plus athleticism on the mound. He has a fast arm and a relatively clean delivery, though he is long in the back as he brings the ball out of his glove.

[ctcf]

That's silly.

[davell]

That's just flat out bad. I'm not even necessarily a Tseng mark. But he's easily inside my top 10. They missed the boat bigtime on him and Torres.

[Guest]

Outside of Ben Badler, BA has continuously been low on Tseng all season. I'm sure they'll say something along the lines of stuff is more important than advanced pitchability (for a lack of a better word) when you're this far from the minors but the bust rate is so high on guys who can throw hard this far from the majors.

[rawaction]

Outside of Ben Badler, BA has continuously been low on Tseng all season. I'm sure they'll say something along the lines of stuff is more important than advanced pitchability (for a lack of a better word) when you're this far from the minors but the bust rate is so high on guys who can throw hard this far from the majors.

 

But Tseng doesn't have bad or even average stuff. 91-92, has hit 95. Good curve. Really good changeup. He's not the low A version of Hendricks stuff wise.

[ScrubMD]

Do they have their B team doing the league rankings or something, they've all seemed pretty bad.

[toonsterwu]

Without knowing the list, I'm a bit limited in perspective right now. That said, looks like JJ Cooper did this list, and he's probably one of the better and known guys there.

 

On the whole, I think it's odd ... to say the least, that Tseng isn't in the top 20, but fundamentally, I don't disagree with the basic premise of prioritizing stuff over command/pitchability this far away. It's not as if Tseng has an end of the rotation ceiling ... he's probably got mid-rotation ceiling for the projections right now.

 

That said, really would need to see an entire list to know how I feel about the omission. Off the top, seemed like a good prospect year, comparatively, in the MWL this year. Gotta think someone asked about Tseng in the chat? The idea of Underwood ahead of Tseng ... it doesn't bother me that much, although I wouldn't agree with it.

 

Mildly curious if anything was said on Shawon Dunston Jr. Was never a huge fan, but he hit really well in the 2nd half, and I wonder if there's a big breakout happening next year for him.

[craig]

...But Tseng doesn't have bad or even average stuff. 91-92, has hit 95. Good curve. Really good changeup. He's not the low A version of Hendricks stuff wise.

 

James (Chicago): What led to placing Underwood over Tseng, and what kind of ceiling could these guys have?

 

J.J. Cooper: Underwood has way more stuff. Tseng was consistently 88-90 without really a plus pitch. He locates well and baffled a lot of hitters, but what he showed this year was more back-end of the rotation stuff. Underwood at his best is 93-96 mph with a hammer curveball. There’s more upside to that assortment of pitches.

[toonsterwu]

ouch. I've been a bit busy to follow too closely this year, but if they've got enough solid reports on that fastball velo ... even leaving aside the declaration of a lack of a plus pitch ... then I can't fault them for it. I thought his velo was a touch higher, , but 88-90 would put him in Hendricks range, and in "show me" mode for rankings (that is, gonna have to keep proving himself on his way up). When you factor in that they don't think he has a plus pitch, then I completely understand their ranking of Tseng.

 

Odd, really thought there were some reports on low 90's. I don't know how much I ever bought into touching mid-90's, but thought he was steady low 90's.

[Guest]

...But Tseng doesn't have bad or even average stuff. 91-92, has hit 95. Good curve. Really good changeup. He's not the low A version of Hendricks stuff wise.

 

James (Chicago): What led to placing Underwood over Tseng, and what kind of ceiling could these guys have?

 

J.J. Cooper: Underwood has way more stuff. Tseng was consistently 88-90 without really a plus pitch. He locates well and baffled a lot of hitters, but what he showed this year was more back-end of the rotation stuff. Underwood at his best is 93-96 mph with a hammer curveball. There’s more upside to that assortment of pitches.

 

BP's scouting reports disagree and Gorosh and Rubio went to Kane County a lot.

 

I wonder if BA has bad reports or if Tseng was inconsistent start to start and the BP guys missed those starts.

[rawaction]

...But Tseng doesn't have bad or even average stuff. 91-92, has hit 95. Good curve. Really good changeup. He's not the low A version of Hendricks stuff wise.

 

James (Chicago): What led to placing Underwood over Tseng, and what kind of ceiling could these guys have?

 

J.J. Cooper: Underwood has way more stuff. Tseng was consistently 88-90 without really a plus pitch. He locates well and baffled a lot of hitters, but what he showed this year was more back-end of the rotation stuff. Underwood at his best is 93-96 mph with a hammer curveball. There’s more upside to that assortment of pitches.

 

BP's scouting reports disagree and Gorosh and Rubio went to Kane County a lot.

 

I wonder if BA has bad reports or if Tseng was inconsistent start to start and the BP guys missed those starts.

 

Yeah, I was basing what I heard off of BP. Never heard anything like Cooper is saying. That's a huge difference.

[toonsterwu]

Looking online, they had a report in the spring with Tseng 89-93 with intriguing secondary stuff. I find this one to be a bit odd, and I hope someone gets a chance to follow up with say, Manuel/Callis/Law ... anyone, on it.

 

IIRC, these league reports are based off discussions with scouts/coaches across each league ... so I gotta think they had multiple bad reports on Tseng ... which makes it a bit more troubling.

[Guest]

All chat questions -- I really wonder what JJ Cooper is hearing about Tseng and why it's so different from what BP and NSBB posters had to say:

 

Steve (IL): How much time does sticking behind the plate add to Schwarber’s development? If the Cubs moved him to LF, could he push for a September call-up next season?

 

J.J. Cooper: He won’t be ready to catch in the big leagues for a while. He’s just not very good back there right now. But moving him to left field isn’t a matter of just putting him out there and letting him hit either. He’s a well-below average defender in the outfield right now. At least one manager who wasn’t all that sold on his catching ability said that it was way beyond his ability in left field right now. As that manager put it “It’s not good. He’s just not going to run around in the outfield. Maybe he plays first?” Everyone loved Schwarber’s bat, but it was hard to find anyone who was confident about where he will play long-term.

 

James (Chicago): What led to placing Underwood over Tseng, and what kind of ceiling could these guys have?

 

J.J. Cooper: Underwood has way more stuff. Tseng was consistently 88-90 without really a plus pitch. He locates well and baffled a lot of hitters, but what he showed this year was more back-end of the rotation stuff. Underwood at his best is 93-96 mph with a hammer curveball. There’s more upside to that assortment of pitches.

 

Tony (Kane County): Soooo…….. I have followed the Cougars all year and it seemed to me that Tseng was considered a much better prospect than Underwood. Some saying he would get Top 100 consideration(without ultimately making it). So what gives. I understand 16 team league etc but Underwood over Tseng??

 

J.J. Cooper: In the long-term what does Tseng end up being? He’s going to have to add velo and sharpen his secondary stuff to have a plus pitch, which he doesn’t really have right now. Underwood may have 2 plus pitches with his fastball and breaking ball. Yes, Underwood is much riskier than Tseng, but the upside is also significantly higher.

[Guest]

Without knowing the list, I'm a bit limited in perspective right now. That said, looks like JJ Cooper did this list, and he's probably one of the better and known guys there.

 

1. Alex Reyes, rhp, Cardinals

2. Trea Turner, ss, Padres

3. Braden Shipley, rhp, Diamondbacks

4. Michael Feliz, rhp, Astros

5. Willy Adams, ss, Tigers/Rays

6. Kohl Stewart, rhp, Twins

7. Clint Coulter, c, Brewers

8. Brett Phillips, of, Astros

9. Clint Frazier, of, Indians

10. Buck Farmer, rhp, Tigers

11. Amir Garrett, lhp, Reds

12. Jesmuel Valentin, 2b, Dodgers

13. Carson Kelly, c, Cardinals

14. Austin Kubitza, rhp, Tigers

15. Zach Bird, rhp, Dodgers

16. Andrew Velazquez, ss/2b, Diamondbacks

17. Kyle Farmer, c, Dodgers

18. Duane Underwood, rhp, Cubs

19. Mitch Brown, rhp, Indians

20. Jake Bauers, 1b, Padres

 

Kaminsky didn't make the top 20 either. He's another high bonus/high draft pick guy with a non-sexy ceiling who did great in the league and has a 2/3 starter ceiling. Doesn't sound like JJ Cooper and I see eye to eye on evaluating prospects.

[Guest]

Alex Reyes is the new Aaron Sanchez

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, at first glance, it looks like it was an absolutely loaded MWL season of folks that qualified. The back end of the top 20 looks a bit shaky (I sort of fell like I would take Underwood over Bird ... and I actually like Bird a fair amount ... but both are raw, upside kids ... ). Don't really love the Kubitza ranking there ... and sort of think Mitch Brown should be a bit higher.

 

Hmm ... feels like if Tseng is more a guy that tops out low-mid-90's, he probably still wouldn't crack the top 10 of this list.