Cole Hamels Traded to Rangers

[Sammy Sofa]

Please stop comparing him to Rizzo.

[Splendid Splinter]

I keep thinking Jose Hernandez as a comp for Baez.

[RammyFanny]

Please stop comparing him to Rizzo.

I'm not comparing them as similar players, damnit.

 

Only saying that if a player as "advanced" as Rizzo took 3 years of major league experience to "get it" then people are stupid for expecting someone with Javy's limitations to make big improvements within 2 months.

 

You can say this for just about every 21 year old not named Mike Trout. Rizzo's obviously the most convenient since people know his history and don't have to go look up and disect someone else's fangraphs page to understand the point. Go use Carlos Gomes or something if it makes you more comfortable.

 

The bigger point is that it's probably going to take a few years for him unless we're lucky, but I'd bet on him getting there. Maybe it does make sense to trade him if you're trying to maximize wins now, but I'd really prefer using him to get another primeish position player that becomes available as opposed to an older pitcher. Donaldson would've been perfect.

[treebird]

Please stop comparing him to Rizzo.

I'm not comparing them as similar players, damnit.

 

Only saying that if a player as "advanced" as Rizzo took 3 years of major league experience to "get it" then people are stupid for expecting someone with Javy's limitations to make big improvements within 2 months.

 

You can say this for just about every 21 year old not named Mike Trout. Rizzo's obviously the most convenient since people know his history and don't have to go look up and disect someone else's fangraphs page to understand the point. Go use Carlos Gomes or something if it makes you more comfortable.

 

The bigger point is that it's probably going to take a few years for him unless we're lucky, but I'd bet on him getting there. Maybe it does make sense to trade him if you're trying to maximize wins now, but I'd really prefer using him to get another primeish position player that becomes available as opposed to an older pitcher. Donaldson would've been perfect.

 

baez struck out in 30 percent of his pa in aaa. that's really, really, really bad. in rizzo's horrible disaster padres stint,* he struck out in 30.1 percent of his pa. add in that rizzo is a magic mashing machine that somehow strikes out less against better pitchers and these guys just aren't comparable at all. baez could turn things around, but he has a lot more work to do than the guys to whom you are comparing him.

 

also, you can't use baez to get a prime position player because everybody knows about the strikeouts.

 

 

*which i thank the nonexistent lord for every day because it's the only reason got him

[RammyFanny]

Please stop comparing him to Rizzo.

I'm not comparing them as similar players, damnit.

 

Only saying that if a player as "advanced" as Rizzo took 3 years of major league experience to "get it" then people are stupid for expecting someone with Javy's limitations to make big improvements within 2 months.

 

You can say this for just about every 21 year old not named Mike Trout. Rizzo's obviously the most convenient since people know his history and don't have to go look up and disect someone else's fangraphs page to understand the point. Go use Carlos Gomes or something if it makes you more comfortable.

 

The bigger point is that it's probably going to take a few years for him unless we're lucky, but I'd bet on him getting there. Maybe it does make sense to trade him if you're trying to maximize wins now, but I'd really prefer using him to get another primeish position player that becomes available as opposed to an older pitcher. Donaldson would've been perfect.

 

baez struck out in 30 percent of his pa in aaa. that's really, really, really bad. in rizzo's horrible disaster padres stint,* he struck out in 30.1 percent of his pa. add in that rizzo is a magic mashing machine that somehow strikes out less against better pitchers and these guys just aren't comparable at all. baez could turn things around, but he has a lot more work to do than the guys to whom you are comparing him.

 

also, you can't use baez to get a prime position player because everybody knows about the strikeouts.

 

 

*which i thank the nonexistent lord for every day because it's the only reason got him

I see your point, but my inner Javy apologist says:

 

1) his 30% k-rate at AAA came as the youngest player in not only the PCL, but all of minor league AAA. Which is kinda the whole point I've been trying to make.

 

2) he always seems to struggle putridly at a new level and then get better. He's been promoted so aggressively that we see him almost linearly improve his K% to a certain point and then bam, he's promoted to face even more advanced pitchers than the already advanced pitchers he was facing in the first place. I would normally say I'm using selective beginning/end points, but I think were at the point where we can say they are legitimate improvement patterns.

 

His K-rates for his last month before being promoted:

 

A+: 20%

AA: 23%

AAA: 23%

 

Not that we should have left him at these levels longer, but if you did it would've been totally defensible and he showed enough improvement that I bet he would've kept his K-rates "respectable" by his standards. People keep throwing out comps who were 23 or 24 in AAA and it's like, well, if we let Javy simmer in AAA for this upcoming season and the season after, I bet his AAA K-rate would look a lot better than 30%.

 

And plz don't remind me how really really really bad a 30% K-rate is cause then I remember Kris Bryant pretty much had one at AAA while a year older than Javy and then I have bad Kyle thoughts and those are the worst.

Edited February 15, 2015 by RammyFanny

[treebird]

He's been promoted so aggressively that we see him almost linearly improve his K% to a certain point and then bam, he's promoted to face even more advanced pitchers than the already advanced pitchers he was facing in the first place. I would normally say I'm using selective beginning/end points, but I think were at the point where we can say they are legitimate improvement patterns.

 

His K-rates for his last month before being promoted:

 

A+: 20%

AA: 23%

AAA: 23%

 

Not that we should have left him at these levels longer, but if you did it would've been totally defensible and he showed enough improvement that I bet he would've kept his K-rates "respectable" by his standards.

 

this is unquestionably my favorite pro-javi argument. i don't necessarily buy it wholeheartedly, but it is the one i hear in my head when i want to say his baseline is jose valentin (minus some walks plus some avg) and his upside is a bizarre low contact/extreme power/excellent middle infield defense monster the likes of which we have never seen.

[RammyFanny]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So basically, pretty much nobody ever has succeeded in the majors after striking out as much as Javy did in the minors, but also he's insanely young and a lot of guys have gotten a lot better from where they are at his age, so there's still plenty to hope on.

 

Got it.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I would not trade any of the top prospects yet. Let these guys have another year to evaluate them at the higher levels. Sign a big pitcher next offseason.

[Guest]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

[RammyFanny]

So basically, pretty much nobody ever has succeeded in the majors after striking out as much as Javy did in the minors, but also he's insanely young and a lot of guys have gotten a lot better from where they are at his age, so there's still plenty to hope on.

 

Got it.

I'm saying the already tiny sample size you're confining this to is skewed because almost no successful high-K players are ever in AAA/MLB at 21, where they would most certainly would have posted Javy Baez-esque K-rates.

 

Hey, let's drop George Springer into AAA at 21 instead of almost-24 and see if his k-rate isn't over 35%.

 

Pedro Alvarez is dropping near 30% k-rates in AAA at 24 years old. If Javy duplicates Alvarez's best offensive season to date in the majors, he'd be the 7th best offensive 2B in the MLB and the 4th rated offensive SS in all of baseball by wRC+.

 

I just think Javy being 6 years younger than the average AAA pitcher while showing linear improvement in his monthly K-rate there is enough to pump the bust brakes until further notice.

 

* edited to take a point out I made about Yelich because I got my years switched up.

Edited February 15, 2015 by RammyFanny

[RammyFanny]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

Well then trade him or start him at AAA because I highly doubt its going to be that quick.

[Guest]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

 

Javy is currently slated to hit 8th, so yes they do have room for him to not kill it out of the gate and still have a productive offense. If he continues his 2014 struggles there will be other pressures that could force them out of the lineup(namely Alcantara, La Stella, or maybe even Russell), but this is exactly why getting Fowler and Montero was so nice. The 2015 Cubs do not need good Javy to be a productive offense or a winning team.

[Guest]

I would not trade any of the top prospects yet. Let these guys have another year to evaluate them at the higher levels. Sign a big pitcher next offseason.

 

There's nothing wrong with trading prospects while they might still turn out good. In fact, that would be what would make other teams want them. You're aware you are getting something in return, right?

[Guest]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

 

Javy is currently slated to hit 8th*, so yes they do have room for him to not kill it out of the gate and still have a productive offense. If he continues his 2014 struggles there will be other pressures that could force them out of the lineup(namely Alcantara, La Stella, or maybe even Russell), but this is exactly why getting Fowler and Montero was so nice. The 2015 Cubs do not need good Javy to be a productive offense or a winning team.

 

Think the pitcher will be hitting there

[Guest]

I see your point, but my inner Javy apologist says:

 

1) his 30% k-rate at AAA came as the youngest player in not only the PCL, but all of minor league AAA. Which is kinda the whole point I've been trying to make.

 

2) he always seems to struggle putridly at a new level and then get better. He's been promoted so aggressively that we see him almost linearly improve his K% to a certain point and then bam, he's promoted to face even more advanced pitchers than the already advanced pitchers he was facing in the first place. I would normally say I'm using selective beginning/end points, but I think were at the point where we can say they are legitimate improvement patterns.

 

His K-rates for his last month before being promoted:

 

A+: 20%

AA: 23%

AAA: 23%

 

Not that we should have left him at these levels longer, but if you did it would've been totally defensible and he showed enough improvement that I bet he would've kept his K-rates "respectable" by his standards. People keep throwing out comps who were 23 or 24 in AAA and it's like, well, if we let Javy simmer in AAA for this upcoming season and the season after, I bet his AAA K-rate would look a lot better than 30%.

 

And plz don't remind me how really really really bad a 30% K-rate is cause then I remember Kris Bryant pretty much had one at AAA while a year older than Javy and then I have bad Kyle thoughts and those are the worst.

 

even when his k rate has improved his contact rate has only gone from putrid to slightly less putrid though

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So basically, pretty much nobody ever has succeeded in the majors after striking out as much as Javy did in the minors, but also he's insanely young and a lot of guys have gotten a lot better from where they are at his age, so there's still plenty to hope on.

 

Got it.

I'm saying the already tiny sample size you're confining this to is skewed because almost no successful high-K players are ever in AAA/MLB at 21, where they would most certainly would have posted Javy Baez-esque K-rates.

 

Hey, let's drop George Springer into AAA at 21 instead of almost-24 and see if his k-rate isn't over 35%.

 

Pedro Alvarez is dropping near 30% k-rates in AAA at 24 years old. If Javy duplicates Alvarez's best offensive season to date in the majors, he'd be the 7th best offensive 2B in the MLB and the 4th rated offensive SS in all of baseball by wRC+.

 

I just think Javy being 6 years younger than the average AAA pitcher while showing linear improvement in his monthly K-rate there is enough to pump the bust brakes until further notice.

 

* edited to take a point out I made about Yelich because I got my years switched up.

 

So Hypothetical Non-Existent George Springer is a good comp for Javy, and Imaginary Pedro Alvarez Who Strikes Out More Than Real Pedro Alvarez Did.

[Guest]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

 

Javy is currently slated to hit 8th, so yes they do have room for him to not kill it out of the gate and still have a productive offense. If he continues his 2014 struggles there will be other pressures that could force them out of the lineup(namely Alcantara, La Stella, or maybe even Russell), but this is exactly why getting Fowler and Montero was so nice. The 2015 Cubs do not need good Javy to be a productive offense or a winning team.

I disagree. He doesn't have to kill it out of the gate, but he needs to not be an auto-K. I really like the Fowler trade as he is definitely an offensive upgrade. I'm not sure Montero will be that much of an upgrade from Castillo and we know Ross won't be worth snot when he's batting.

 

But like you wrote, if he's not figuring it out he'll be in AAA. I like that the front office builds contingencies in the lineup. That alone is a huge change for the Cubs.

[Guest]

So basically, pretty much nobody ever has succeeded in the majors after striking out as much as Javy did in the minors, but also he's insanely young and a lot of guys have gotten a lot better from where they are at his age, so there's still plenty to hope on.

 

Got it.

I'm saying the already tiny sample size you're confining this to is skewed because almost no successful high-K players are ever in AAA/MLB at 21, where they would most certainly would have posted Javy Baez-esque K-rates.

 

Hey, let's drop George Springer into AAA at 21 instead of almost-24 and see if his k-rate isn't over 35%.

 

Pedro Alvarez is dropping near 30% k-rates in AAA at 24 years old. If Javy duplicates Alvarez's best offensive season to date in the majors, he'd be the 7th best offensive 2B in the MLB and the 4th rated offensive SS in all of baseball by wRC+.

 

I just think Javy being 6 years younger than the average AAA pitcher while showing linear improvement in his monthly K-rate there is enough to pump the bust brakes until further notice.

 

* edited to take a point out I made about Yelich because I got my years switched up.

 

 

These are pretty much my thoughts. It's basically all "immense talent and extremely young" that I am hanging my hat on.

 

He needs to make adjustments and when adjustments are made you can either become Brett Jaxon or Corey Patterson and get worse or you can become Rizzo, maybe do something like sell out a little more for contact (or sell out a little less for power) and actually fix things. What he's doing now is not going to lead to success no matter what IMO, but he might be talented enough to change what he's doing and become a much more effective player.

[Guest]

So Hypothetical Non-Existent George Springer is a good comp for Javy, and Imaginary Pedro Alvarez Who Strikes Out More Than Real Pedro Alvarez Did.

 

hey you're getting really close to recognizing what the real point is. good job good effort.

 

also that is not an imaginary pedro alvarez. nicely done.

[Guest]

It's what I'm clinging to lol.

He better start adjusting really [expletive] fast, they are supposedly trying to win this year. Their offense has no room for him to figure himself out for half a season.

 

Javy is currently slated to hit 8th, so yes they do have room for him to not kill it out of the gate and still have a productive offense. If he continues his 2014 struggles there will be other pressures that could force them out of the lineup(namely Alcantara, La Stella, or maybe even Russell), but this is exactly why getting Fowler and Montero was so nice. The 2015 Cubs do not need good Javy to be a productive offense or a winning team.

I disagree. He doesn't have to kill it out of the gate, but he needs to not be an auto-K. I really like the Fowler trade as he is definitely an offensive upgrade. I'm not sure Montero will be that much of an upgrade from Castillo and we know Ross won't be worth snot when he's batting.

 

But like you wrote, if he's not figuring it out he'll be in AAA. I like that the front office builds contingencies in the lineup. That alone is a huge change for the Cubs.

 

There's a matter of degrees. Sure if Javy is K'ing 45% of the time by mid-May he's gonna be out of the lineup quickly, maybe even earlier. There's a lot of gray area outcomes where he's not necessarily on the path to stardom though(say he's hitting .210/.260/.415 with 33% K rate) that I think they'll stick with him as long as he's not sub-replacement.

[Guest]

btw we don't know ross won't be worth snot (well, especially not in a small sample). not saying it'll be worth much more than snot, but his ability to hit is being a little undersold. he's not john baker or koyie hill. hopefully he won't face that many righties and won't be in a super strict personal catcher situation with lester, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So Hypothetical Non-Existent George Springer is a good comp for Javy, and Imaginary Pedro Alvarez Who Strikes Out More Than Real Pedro Alvarez Did.

 

hey you're getting really close to recognizing what the real point is. good job good effort.

 

also that is not an imaginary pedro alvarez. nicely done.

 

The point is

Javy is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton but he is really young but he strikes out a ton.

 

 

also offseasons are long.

[RammyFanny]

So Hypothetical Non-Existent George Springer is a good comp for Javy, and Imaginary Pedro Alvarez Who Strikes Out More Than Real Pedro Alvarez Did.

Please enlighten me on this massive list of players you have that fit your parameters, were promoted at similar ages to Javy, and have large K-rates but still really good triple slash lines. We're using hypotheticals because a meaningful sample size of these players don't exist and players who have posted K-rates as high as him are generally not OPSing near 1.000 and on pace to hit 60 HRs as 20 year old SS's in AA.

[Sammy Sofa]

I would not trade any of the top prospects yet. Let these guys have another year to evaluate them at the higher levels. Sign a big pitcher next offseason.

 

There's nothing wrong with trading prospects while they might still turn out good. In fact, that would be what would make other teams want them. You're aware you are getting something in return, right?

 

Look, everyone knows the right time to trade a prospect is after only the team that has them is able to evaluate them at the higher levels and then can trade the ones who look like busts because other teams aren't allowed to look.