Breaking news: Core Four now Future Five

[davell]

Beginning of next season lineup

 

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Valbuena/some journeyman

SS Castro

3B Valbuena/some journeyman

LF Coghlan/Lake

CF Alcantara

RF Ruggiano

 

By May

 

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Valbuena

SS Castro

3B Javy

LF Ruggiano

CF Alcantara

RF KB

 

By August

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Russell

SS Castro

3B Javy

LF Soler

CF Alcantara

RF KB

 

I'm seriously thinking we try this, before making any offensive additions via trade or FA that are important.

 

I kind of do too.

 

If we DO try it, it's so [expletive] interesting and possibly awesome that I doubt I'd be upset if we spent 25 mill or so on FA pitching and a few backups and headed into next year at 75 mill. I'd rather have an OF added in FA and a good pair of SP, but I get why they'd at least try all these youngsters out in the majors before truly deciding on who stays and who goes.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know Kyle's heart is in the right place. No one else can talk negative and coax more out of guys than him. It's proven. I truly have no idea who he's actually high on or not either, it's quite brilliant, but understandably confusing.

 

Hot takes/real talk combo:

 

I'm terrified of Bryant and Baez's K-rates, but trying not to think about it because everything else is so awesome. Seriously, though, the list of people who strike out this much in the minors and become awesome is really, really thin. I think that when you normalize Bryant's BABIP and factor in the brutal AAA>MLB transition for a high-K guy, he becomes pretty ordinary in the short-term. But ordinary at 22 isn't the worst thing in the world and he can go up from there.

 

I assume Addison Russell is going to be solid no matter what.

 

I'm meh on Almora. I think the prospect hipsters have gone way too far in ignoring stats but as long he's not too much of a minor-league defense being overhyped guy, he'll have some sort of MLB career. You don't usually get superstars at No. 6 overall anyway.

 

I don't think Alcantara's going to hit a lot in the majors. Other than a higher BABIP, he's not doing anything to AAA that Brett Jackson or Josh Vitters or Junior Lake didn't do in their first go-around at Iowa. If he's got plus defense at 2b or CF, then he'll be a useful player, but who knows what a guy's defense really looks like until he gets to the majors.

 

Too early to tell anything on Schwarber.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

If we DO try it, it's so [expletive] interesting and possibly awesome that I doubt I'd be upset if we spent 25 mill or so on FA pitching and a few backups and headed into next year at 75 mill.

 

That's a lot of "rolled over" money. #PTR #IndecentProposal

[davell]

Right or wrong, I liken Almora to Starlin quite a bit. Very good hit tool, lots of projection in the body. I know it's far from a great comp, but it's still how I look at him. Different regimes too, it's possible Almora could be in AA right now under a different group, just based on his AFL last year.

 

I get why most are down on him, but I'm undeterred as of yet and still suspect he's going to be a hell of a CF for us, hitting around .280-.300, 15ish HR, with solid to better D.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Right or wrong, I liken Almora to Starlin quite a bit. Very good hit tool, lots of projection in the body. I know it's far from a great comp, but it's still how I look at him. Different regimes too, it's possible Almora could be in AA right now under a different group, just based on his AFL last year.

 

I get why most are down on him, but I'm undeterred as of yet and still suspect he's going to be a hell of a CF for us, hitting around .280-.300, 15ish HR, with solid to better D.

 

When Castro was Almora's age, wasn't he raking in the majors and not just getting hot mid-season in A+?

[davell]

 

If we DO try it, it's so [expletive] interesting and possibly awesome that I doubt I'd be upset if we spent 25 mill or so on FA pitching and a few backups and headed into next year at 75 mill.

 

That's a lot of "rolled over" money. #PTR #IndecentProposal

 

It's great business-wise, if most of this group pans out on some level, as it'll be 2020 or longer before he's even going to be put under fire to actually act like a large market owner.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

If we DO try it, it's so [expletive] interesting and possibly awesome that I doubt I'd be upset if we spent 25 mill or so on FA pitching and a few backups and headed into next year at 75 mill.

 

That's a lot of "rolled over" money. #PTR #IndecentProposal

 

It's great business-wise, if most of this group pans out on some level, as it'll be 2020 or longer before he's even going to be put under fire to actually act like a large market owner.

 

He might even come out with profit and a free baseball team.

[davell]

Right or wrong, I liken Almora to Starlin quite a bit. Very good hit tool, lots of projection in the body. I know it's far from a great comp, but it's still how I look at him. Different regimes too, it's possible Almora could be in AA right now under a different group, just based on his AFL last year.

 

I get why most are down on him, but I'm undeterred as of yet and still suspect he's going to be a hell of a CF for us, hitting around .280-.300, 15ish HR, with solid to better D.

 

When Castro was Almora's age, wasn't he raking in the majors and not just getting hot mid-season in A+?

 

Sure. He hit his breakout year during his age 20 year. It's why it's not a perfect comp obviously, but it's not out of the realm Almora hits his next year at 21.

 

Like I said, I get why guys are down on him. But if this were 2-3 years ago, we'd all be thrilled to have him and much more understanding of a half season of struggles in High A at age 20.

 

I think most orgs would still be looking at him as a future star, we're just so ridiculously stacked that we don't feel the need to do that. But 3 years ago we were all basically hinging our hopes on Vitters, McNutt, and Brett. Coming up with reasons they'd succeed. Almora has just dropped off our radar due to other truly exciting kids having a better 1st half.

[davell]

 

If we DO try it, it's so [expletive] interesting and possibly awesome that I doubt I'd be upset if we spent 25 mill or so on FA pitching and a few backups and headed into next year at 75 mill.

 

That's a lot of "rolled over" money. #PTR #IndecentProposal

 

It's great business-wise, if most of this group pans out on some level, as it'll be 2020 or longer before he's even going to be put under fire to actually act like a large market owner.

 

He might even come out with profit and a free baseball team.

 

Him saying he's not making money is an insult.

[Guest]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

Equally true for like 20 other teams, though

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think most orgs would still be looking at him as a future star, we're just so ridiculously stacked that we don't feel the need to do that. But 3 years ago we were all basically hinging our hopes on Vitters, McNutt, and Brett. Coming up with reasons they'd succeed. Almora has just dropped off our radar due to other truly exciting kids having a better 1st half.

 

Well, sure, Almora is a better prospect than Vitters or McNutt and about the same as Jackson, and he gets less hype because we're busy hyping the five better guys we have now.

[Guest]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

Equally true for like 20 other teams, though

 

Not particularly.

[Sammy Sofa]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

Equally true for like 20 other teams, though

 

Not that many, but having what is generally looked at as the #1 or #2 best farm system probably has to help set the Cubs apart if they go for him.

 

And they should.

[sneakypower]

I'm terrified of Bryant and Baez's K-rates, but trying not to think about it because everything else is so awesome. Seriously, though, the list of people who strike out this much in the minors and become awesome is really, really thin. I think that when you normalize Bryant's BABIP and factor in the brutal AAA>MLB transition for a high-K guy, he becomes pretty ordinary in the short-term. But ordinary at 22 isn't the worst thing in the world and he can go up from there.

using George Springer (24.5% MILB career K%) as a comparison, Springer averaged 155 wRC+ throughout the minors and is projected by ZiPS for a 116 wRC+ right now, almost exactly 75% of his MILB career rate production - also, it may be worth noting Bryant has been at least about a year younger than Springer was, coming up through the ranks

 

Bryant (26.3% K%) has averaged 210 wRC+ (lolol) and using same arbitrary 75% benchmark would give him 157 wRC+ projection, which would be 9th-best figure right now, identical to Puig/J. Batista/N. Cruz current production, slightly trailing 8th-place Stanton (160)

 

i know it's nearly meaningless back of the napkin math stuff, but i was curious what that process would reveal, so i'm sharing my admittedly specious findings

 

 

BONUS LAUGHS: Bryant's post-April numbers

 

since May 1 - .381/.465/.775 (.471 BABIP) - 150 R, 46 2B, 64 HR, 173 RBI, 94 BB : 188 K pace

 

[Clem Fandango]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

Equally true for like 20 other teams, though

 

Except they can't offer up the goods to get him without crippling their team in some way.

 

Seriously how many teams out there can deal the players required to get him without creating a problem elsewhere? Pittsburgh? Minnesota? They could probably do it, but would they be able to extend him? Probably don't have the financial means necessary to make a deal worth it. Texas, maybe? But their prospects have taken a bit of a hit in value have they not? All the top guys they could send over are injured. You could make the argument a team could trade one of their superstars for him, but in that situation, that superstar needs to be locked up cheaply or still in pre-arbitration otherwise the Marlins won't take on a big contract.

 

Seriously the Cubs are the only logical and suitable team for the Marlins to deal with in regards to Stanton. I can't think of another team that fits the bill as well as them.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's pretty [expletive] exciting to finally have guys destroying leagues, especially at higher levels. I can't see what is anticlimactic about that.

 

It's anticlimactic for some of us because we want to see these guys impacting the Cubs, either via trades or playing on the team, as quickly as possible. Knowing that the rest of this season and the first few weeks of next year are just playing the waiting game is frustrating. I'm not begrudging anyone for loving minor league ball and I'm not looking to clutter up the rest of the minor league forum, but stuff like "Core Fore" and "Future Five," just emphasizes, to me, how much waiting is still left and how it's been a pretty shitty run to get there. I can't wait to see some of these guys kick ass or be traded for players that kick ass, but wait we must.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Sammy Sofa

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Works for me. I'll take anything that makes me feel better.

 

 

Notice Springer had the same insane BABIPs all through the minors and is at .309 in the majors.

 

His .235/342/466 line is very much in the vicinity of what I expect from Bryant in his rookie year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

Equally true for like 20 other teams, though

 

Not that many, but having what is generally looked at as the #1 or #2 best farm system probably has to help set the Cubs apart if they go for him.

 

And they should.

 

And a $4 payroll for 2015. And a supposed aversion to big contracts for pitchers.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I assume other teams have young MLB assets to trade for Stanton. You aren't limited to trading guys who are still eligible for the prospect lists.

[Rob]

Boy it really does make an absurd amount of sense to make Giancarlo Stanton: Chicago Cub a thing.

 

I have a hard time seeing a deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's pretty [expletive] exciting to finally have guys destroying leagues, especially at higher levels. I can't see what is anticlimactic about that.

 

It's anticlimactic for some of us because we want to see these guys impacting the Cubs, either via trades or playing on the team, as quickly as possible. Knowing that the rest of this season and the first few weeks of next year are just playing the waiting game is frustrating. I'm not begrudging anyone for loving minor league ball and I'm not looking to clutter up the rest of the minor league forum, but stuff like "Core Fore" and "Future Five," just emphasizes, to me, how much waiting is still left and how it's been a pretty [expletive] run to get there. I can't wait to see some of these guys kick ass or be traded for players that kick ass, but wait we must.

 

Obviously I concur with your general sentiment but I don't get the anticlimactic angle.

 

I guess it will be anticlimactic when they finally do call people up, because even then it will just be more waiting for them to adjust and probably a couple seasons of falling short of contention. Is that what you mean?

[Guest]

I assume other teams have young MLB assets to trade for Stanton. You aren't limited to trading guys who are still eligible for the prospect lists.

 

And also mitigating the benefit of trading for Stanton.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's pretty [expletive] exciting to finally have guys destroying leagues, especially at higher levels. I can't see what is anticlimactic about that.

 

It's anticlimactic for some of us because we want to see these guys impacting the Cubs, either via trades or playing on the team, as quickly as possible. Knowing that the rest of this season and the first few weeks of next year are just playing the waiting game is frustrating. I'm not begrudging anyone for loving minor league ball and I'm not looking to clutter up the rest of the minor league forum, but stuff like "Core Fore" and "Future Five," just emphasizes, to me, how much waiting is still left and how it's been a pretty [expletive] run to get there. I can't wait to see some of these guys kick ass or be traded for players that kick ass, but wait we must.

 

 

I'm not going to slurp Epstein for taking four years to get to that point, but the waiting is getting pretty close to done. Unless they go into full-on super-villain sabotage mode, 2015 will be a solid team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I assume other teams have young MLB assets to trade for Stanton. You aren't limited to trading guys who are still eligible for the prospect lists.

 

And also mitigating the benefit of trading for Stanton.

 

I don't see the difference. The Cubs need their prospects to fill in all the massive holes on the MLB team just as much as other teams need their young MLB players to stay and not create Cubs-sized holes on the roster.