Samardzija trade rumors

[Rob]

Even leaving aside Sanchez's control issues(which alone are a big big problem that may put reliever ceiling on him), he can't strike people out. Couldn't strike out A-ball hitters in the FSL, or AA hitters in the EL, or AAA hitters in the IL. He's the prototype for the over-rated prospect. A pitcher, one without any semblance of control, and one who can't even get swings and misses, AND who's already had hints of injury(shoulder, blister) problems. He's a lottery ticket, and not even a particularly good one.

 

Sounds a lot like Samardzija as a prospect, when you put it that way.

[davell]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

[Guest]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

Would mgmt look at Arrieta + Strop as more their own failure or the fault of the coaches?

[Gilby]

Norris struck out 10 tonight. Has 19 K's to 4 BB's in 11 innings at AA.

[davell]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

Would mgmt look at Arrieta + Strop as more their own failure or the fault of the coaches?

 

Either way, it doesn't bode well for another deal, in my mind. It could result in some new coaches and new general pitching philosophies, but watching us turn another pitcher of theirs into what they're trying to trade for...... Likely isn't what they want to see happen.

[Guest]

Even leaving aside Sanchez's control issues(which alone are a big big problem that may put reliever ceiling on him), he can't strike people out. Couldn't strike out A-ball hitters in the FSL, or AA hitters in the EL, or AAA hitters in the IL. He's the prototype for the over-rated prospect. A pitcher, one without any semblance of control, and one who can't even get swings and misses, AND who's already had hints of injury(shoulder, blister) problems. He's a lottery ticket, and not even a particularly good one.

 

Sounds a lot like Samardzija as a prospect, when you put it that way.

 

That's an interesting comparison, and helps to underscore the point. Samardzija had an uneven MiLB career(he oscillated between low BB/low K and high BB/high K), but he still finished with a BB/9 a full walk lower than Sanchez's. There's also the fact that at Samardzija's trajectory we can expect Sanchez to be a useful starter in about 2018, but that's not really relevant.

[MWV]

Morosi has an article up that claims if the Jays offered Sanchez, Norris, and Pompey that they would get Samardzija, but they aren't willing to do that. There's also more allusions to how Shark would fare in the AL East thunderdome and how the Jays prefer Price or Hamels.

My favorite:

Against a more consistent offensive team, from the AL East, the lone run he allowed could have turned into five.

Yes, a more consistent offensive team from the AL east...

which I guess would be the [expletive] Jays?

[gscool89]

Taijuan Walker dominated OKC tonight. Would love for their name to pop up in rumors to increase leverage.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's going to take people like 10 years to notice the AL East isn't good anymore, isn't it?

[Guest]

It's going to take people like 10 years to notice the AL East isn't good anymore, isn't it?

by the time they notice, the division will be good again.

[Gilby]

Morosi has an article up that claims if the Jays offered Sanchez, Norris, and Pompey that they would get Samardzija, but they aren't willing to do that. There's also more allusions to how Shark would fare in the AL East thunderdome and how the Jays prefer Price or Hamels.

My favorite:

Against a more consistent offensive team, from the AL East, the lone run he allowed could have turned into five.

Yes, a more consistent offensive team from the AL east...

which I guess would be the [expletive] Jays?

 

Oh, you didn't know? All AL East lineups are filled with 9 Joey Vottos.

[davell]

It's going to take people like 10 years to notice the AL East isn't good anymore, isn't it?

 

They'll be good again and their current sucking will have never happened.

[toonsterwu]

Thanks for the more detailed breakdown. It wouldn't be outlandish to see them make a big move and spend a couple of their big three (I'm not a big fan of Rodriguez). I just don't expect them to make that big of a splash.

 

I guess if:

- the team as a whole is playing well

- Tillman, in particular, falls on his face and

- Gausman is erratic

they may consider it. It just isn't very likely.

 

I fully expect them to be active ... I'm just not sure how active at this point. They simply have an opening that might not be there in the future - Red Sox are down, Rays are close to done, and the Yankees don't exactly have a monster system to necessarily facilitate moves (and I'd argue that the Blue Jays don't have the system to make more than 1 big move, but that's at least a bit more debatable, I guess). Of course, some of the talk is that, well, how many moves do the Orioles need (the implication being that they may need too many pieces to legitimately contend, so why waste young talent)? Personally, I think an optimistic look on the Orioles would be -

 

Pen - Britton shores up the closer role, and Hunter settles back into his setup role, allowing you to piece the rest of the pen together (and namely, move O'Day back to more of a 7th inning role and Matusz as a lefty specialist). Their success the past few years has been dependent upon a 6 inning ball-game essentially.

 

Offense - Realistically, I'm not sure they have any place they CAN make a move. You have to wait on Machado. Hardy/Davis/Markakis/Jones/Cruz aren't going anywhere. You have to hope Davis can turn it around. All that really leaves is catcher and 2nd, and I think Hundley was their move at catcher, and after playing Schoop for this long, I have doubts that they will just dump the move for a temporary upgrade, particularly since if Machado/Davis pick it up, their offense is that much better.

 

Rotation - You aren't making two moves for starters ... and I'm not sure they need to. Chen's fine, you get fine back end production from Norris.

 

I guess this is my roundabout way of saying that I think they will seriously pursue the big splash if they can avoid moving Bundy/Gausman and control the pitcher for more than this year. You get another starter in there to pair with Chen, then you can mix and match the back end. Now, that said, as noted, I have doubts they move either Bundy or Gausman. I'm in an odd spot with Rodriguez - last year, I thought he was over-hyped ... now I think he's a bit under-hyped. It's still a very good 3 pitch mix, and there's slightly better than mid-rotation potential with that velocity. The one darkhorse factor is if Gausman solidifies a spot in the rotation and allows them to piece together the rest of it. A lot of moving factors in play with them.

[toonsterwu]

So...

 

Of all the contending teams, Baltimore has had the worst starting pitching. By Far. They clearly haven't trusted Gausman to be a solution to their problem, either, as they've been shuttling him back and forth to AAA all year long. Bundy is coming back off surgery and won't be someone they can rely upon for big innings this year.

 

They might get desperate enough to deal two of Bundy/Gausman/Harvey. I get a feeling they'll target more of a Feldman-type upgrade where they don't have to give those guys up, though.

 

They've only been shuttling Gausman because they can do so with no downside - he's a part of their short-term plans.

 

If folks think Sanchez, Norris and Pompey is short, it really does seem as if expectations are unrealistic because of the Garza overpay. Sanchez has warts, but his stuff is truly elite - and you're getting another TORP prospect and a multi-tool switch-hitting CF who draws walks. That's a good deal. Would I rather have Bundy, Harvey and extras? Yeah - but I very much doubt that happens.

 

First off, this whole "Garza" overpay as it pertains to the Shark trade is something that has bothered me. People seem to think that no deal can stand up to the Garza deal at that point in time. Realistically, Hunter Harvey (taking a name that's been discussed), entering this year, was viewed as good as, if not a better talent, CJ Edwards entering last year. The rest of the package is "nice", but most teams can put together something equivalent to Olt/Ramirez/Grimm's value last year, pre-trade. The gap from Edwards to Harvey at the same point in time isn't all that much ... and I have my doubts that there are many Cubs fans that would be okay with a Harvey-led package. Put it another way - a comparable trade to Sanchez/Norris/Pompey from the Orioles is closer to Rodriguez/Harvey/? than people seem to be acknowledging.

 

As for the Jays package, I was a big proponent of Sanchez in years past, but as tantalizing as his upside is, he's now entering AA/AAA and hasn't fixed his problems yet. I'm not all that sure that his FB/breaking ball combination is that much better than Neil Ramirez's. A Samardzija trade, IMO, really needs a super-elite ceiling or a good ceiling that is close to ready. I'm not sure Sachez fits either spot - he has an elite ceiling, but not out of this world that when combined with his risk, really makes a ton of sense for the Cubs. Now, I'll grant, maybe the Cubs think they can fix him and if so, alright. From the outside looking in, I'm just not sure I buy the fit for the Cubs, as the centerpiece to a Shark deal, as the best.

 

That said, I guess the argument could be made that Norris is the centerpiece to the deal and Sanchez is a good gamble to see if they can fix - the Neil Ramirez to Norris' CJ Edwards. It's debatable, I just happen to prefer Harvey to Norris a bit, and I think the safety of Eduardo Rodriguez, plus a solid enough ceiling, is a safer bet. Of course, this is speaking about a hypothetical that supposedly isn't being offered, but that was my only point about the Blue Jays trade - not sure the Sanchez risk is a worthwhile one at this stage.

[toonsterwu]

Taijuan Walker dominated OKC tonight. Would love for their name to pop up in rumors to increase leverage.

 

I'll be rather shocked if the Mariners even remotely ponder moving Walker. Paxton I think they might listen on, but Walker? I'd be stunned. They have enough middle infield chips to shop around to fill some holes, but probably not enough to really make a serious charge this year.

[toonsterwu]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

Would mgmt look at Arrieta + Strop as more their own failure or the fault of the coaches?

 

Either way, it doesn't bode well for another deal, in my mind. It could result in some new coaches and new general pitching philosophies, but watching us turn another pitcher of theirs into what they're trying to trade for...... Likely isn't what they want to see happen.

 

I have my doubts about that. Strop went from setup to mopup and Arrieta was clearly off. They knew what they had with Arrieta but he had been so bad in the majors that year and was ... bleh in AAA ... it sort of felt like cut the cord time. It's not like they've been bad with pitchers - the pen's been strong in Showalter's tenure, and Gonzalez/Tillman weren't exactly on the tip of everyone's mouths a couple seasons back. I really doubt that Duquette is going to be influenced by that trade enough to prevent a trade with us if he likes it. If you don't move Arrieta then, they would've kept him in AAA to do what? He's not exactly building value down in AAA. Sometimes, however a trade works out really doesn't imply that the process to make the trade was a bad decision, and I don't see any way that the Orioles selling two clearly out of favor pitchers as some negative mark on them and I have my doubts that the trade will weigh heavily on future decisions.

[toonsterwu]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

Would mgmt look at Arrieta + Strop as more their own failure or the fault of the coaches?[/quote

My gut hunch based on what I recall of the talk then was that they would view both as failures of the players (their own failure). Arrieta was given a ton of rope. Strop, perhaps a bit less so, but he had lost his spot.

[Deeg]

Sanchez is hardly as broken as Arrietta seemed to be, and much younger with even nastier stuff. He's been a consensus Top 20-40 prospect for a reason. If 21 year-old TORP prospects didn't come with risks, they'd never get traded.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I can honestly say I expect Baltimore would be very hesitant to deal with us again, at this point.

Would mgmt look at Arrieta + Strop as more their own failure or the fault of the coaches?[/quote

My gut hunch based on what I recall of the talk then was that they would view both as failures of the players (their own failure). Arrieta was given a ton of rope. Strop, perhaps a bit less so, but he had lost his spot.

 

I wouldn't even consider Arrieta a failure on Baltimore's part so much as another success for Bosio.

[toonsterwu]

Sanchez is hardly as broken as Arrietta seemed to be, and much younger with even nastier stuff. He's been a consensus Top 20-40 prospect for a reason. If 21 year-old TORP prospects didn't come with risks, they'd never get traded.

 

I never compared the two ... they are two different assets as it pertains to the type of trade discussions they would be involved in.

[Guest]

[expletive] it

 

just trade him for moar hitting prospects and let bosio do the rest

[davell]

I keep going back to this, but if there's a part of Shark that wants to stay-just [expletive] extend him. I'd go ahead and go to 6/120, if necessary.

 

You still have plenty of money for another SP and an OF for next year.

 

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Javy or Alcantara(Valbuena if necessary)

SS Starlin

3B Javy or KB(Valbuena if necessary)

LF

CF Alcantara or

RF KB or

 

Leaves us needing 2 OF(one of which could be cheap)

 

SP Shark, Arrieta, Wood, Jackson

 

Bullpen is a strength

 

30-40 mill to spend......We can definitely contend next year with a solid OF bat and an impact SP

[KingCubsFan]

[expletive] it

 

just trade him for moar hitting prospects and let bosio do the rest

Agree. Bosio is becoming our own sliver of Cardinal Magic.

[davell]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-the-block-the-2014-trade-chips/

 

Useful chart.

[SouthSideRyan]

I keep going back to this, but if there's a part of Shark that wants to stay-just [expletive] extend him. I'd go ahead and go to 6/120, if necessary.

 

You still have plenty of money for another SP and an OF for next year.

 

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Javy or Alcantara(Valbuena if necessary)

SS Starlin

3B Javy or KB(Valbuena if necessary)

LF

CF Alcantara or

RF KB or

 

Leaves us needing 2 OF(one of which could be cheap)

 

SP Shark, Arrieta, Wood, Jackson

 

Bullpen is a strength

 

30-40 mill to spend......We can definitely contend next year with a solid OF bat and an impact SP

 

That's 3 or 4 spots in the batting order we need to fill for a month.