Who is the #23 prospect? (runoff)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This runoff is between Duane Underwood, Tyler Skulina and Willson Contreras for the 23rd, 24th and 25th spots. The poll will be open for 48 hours.

 

Results so far:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Albert Almora

4. Jorge Soler

5. CJ Edwards

6. Arismendy Alcantara

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Daniel Vogelbach

9. Christian Villanueva

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Mike Olt

12. Kyle Hendricks

13. Arodys Vizcaino

14. Paul Blackburn

15. Rob Zastryzny

16. Corey Black

17. Neil Ramirez

18. Eloy Jimenez

19. Josh Vitters

20. Ivan Pineyro

21. Armando Rivero

22. Dillon Maples

[rawaction]

I understand it would put 5 names in the pool, but should Cabrera and Torres NOT be included?

 

These 3 had 14 votes, Cabrera 13, Torres 12. Previously we were doing runoffs if the voting was pretty close. That seems pretty close.

[craig]

Heh heh, I haven't voted yet for any of these three names. So here's my chance.

 

Skulina. All three have some good talent. I'm voting Skulina because the other two have struggled thus far, and Skulina being the newer guy hasn't yet. (He might struggle, who knows. But we know that offense is a challenge for Contreras, and that thus far Underwood has struggled with control of fastball as well as curve.)

 

The tailing action on Skulina's fastball gives it a chance to be a really, really effective big-league pitch. His fastball/slider combination has the potential to be strongly anti-HR. He's got a chance to be a good starter, but his fastball/slider combo also profiles well for relief.

 

Scouting reports were very positive, and generally viewed his talents as being 3rd/2nd round caliber. Cubs scouted him heavily, and paid 2nd-round bonus to secure him. So I think he's pretty talented.

 

Challenges will be control/command/consistency, and LH hitters. Lots of guys can look really good on their good pitches; but they get beat on their mistakes. will he hang too many sliders, and get too many fastball up? Not sure he's got anything at present that will work well against LH hitters. He may need a solid change or cutter or both to handle lefties well, but I don't recall hearing that he's worked with the cutter at all, and I don't get the sense his change is very good yet.

Edited March 4, 2014 by craig

[Guest]

I understand it would put 5 names in the pool, but should Cabrera and Torres NOT be included?

 

These 3 had 14 votes, Cabrera 13, Torres 12. Previously we were doing runoffs if the voting was pretty close. That seems pretty close.

 

We can do that if more people feel that way.

 

I was worried it would dilute the run-off to have 5 guys, each of whom would get a spot from 23-27 based on one vote.

[rawaction]

I understand it would put 5 names in the pool, but should Cabrera and Torres NOT be included?

 

These 3 had 14 votes, Cabrera 13, Torres 12. Previously we were doing runoffs if the voting was pretty close. That seems pretty close.

 

We can do that if more people feel that way.

 

I was worried it would dilute the run-off to have 5 guys, each of whom would get a spot from 23-27 based on one vote.

 

Yeah, it's probably fine the way it is. Would dilute the run-off. But I thought we could vote with the top guy getting 23 and then throw everyone else back in the pool. But that might be too time consuming if the 4 remaining remain pretty close in subsequent votes.

[wekim81]

I understand it would put 5 names in the pool, but should Cabrera and Torres NOT be included?

 

These 3 had 14 votes, Cabrera 13, Torres 12. Previously we were doing runoffs if the voting was pretty close. That seems pretty close.

 

We can do that if more people feel that way.

 

I was worried it would dilute the run-off to have 5 guys, each of whom would get a spot from 23-27 based on one vote.

i kinda wished the run off was 5 dudes.

[wekim81]

but in absence of it being 5 guys, i vote for Skulina and its not real close for me. I dont get the Contreras thing either. I have probably seen him play a dozen times and just don't see it.

[Bilbo161]

but in absence of it being 5 guys, i vote for Skulina and its not real close for me. I dont get the Contreras thing either. I have probably seen him play a dozen times and just don't see it.

 

I agree with you. Skulina gets my vote. I like Contreras but hasn't convinced me yet. I actually like Malave better. Underwood needs to show me some progress first I'll consider him more later this season when we have more data to judge.

[craig]

I know their has been some intermittent Contreras comments in earlier poll threads. Could somebody pro-Contreras articulate what we're hoping from him? Or, maybe I'll try a pro-con, and you can suggest improvements on that.

 

Pro/hopeful:

1. He's a catcher, and we've got none. Since starting catchers don't play every day, and also play the most injury-prone position, even if Contreras is never more than a backup C, he might still end up play quite a bit and being pretty important.

2. He's got a strong arm and had decent numbers in terms of catch-and-throw SB/CS. He was kinda bad in terms of catcher/blocking, with lots of errors, passed balls, and wild-pitches allowed. But he's new enough to the position where with time we're still hoping he'll end up being both a good receiver and a good thrower.

3. He had a .742 OPS without high BABIP. Offensive possibilities.

4. He hit 11 HR in only 310 AB, in a low-HR league, while starting the year at age 20. A little age-based power development, prorating from 310AB to 500+ like an every-day big-leaguer gets, and maybe he might be a 20-HR guy?

5. His hitting improved a lot. From .673 to .744; from 3 HR to 11 HR. All while jumping from offense-friendly Boise to Midwest League. That suggests a significant improvement trajectory. If he continues on that trajectory, especially since the competition level is a lesser jump from Kane to Daytona than it was from Boise to Kane, his numbers could get pretty interesting.

6. His BABIP was .280's. If those had been .320's instead, his average and OPS would both look more attractive.

7. His plate discipline improved a lot. BB/K/IP went from 11/54/249 (very low BB's) to 26/66/310 (fairly reasonable ratios).

 

Cons:

He hit only .248; a .744 OPS isn't that hot; he's really raw and kinda bad as a receiver; while he hit 11 HR's, he had only 16 other XBH; he'd been bad (.600's OPS) previous two seasons; he K's a lot and previous year didn't walk much at all; scouts haven't pumped his power potential.

 

Will be interesting to see if he continues to progress steadily or dramatically. Or if he'll revert to sub-.700's OPS this year, without dramatic improvement defensively.

[Guest]

As someone who's voted Contreras for several rounds now, it's not about the hopes for him to me, it's about what he's accomplished. The fact that he has the tools to be even better is why he's on my ballot and not Dustin Geiger, but while you need both the performance legitimizes it. He's 21, makes a lot of contact, has a strong arm and good defensive potential, and held his own in full season ball at the plate. More importantly than what he's done though, are what the alternatives haven't. Underwood has gotten shelled at Boise, Skulina got rocked in KC and has only been pitching 2 IP at a time. Torres is 16 years old and hasn't played real baseball yet, and Cabrera is going to get DFA'd because he's got lit up in the bullpen at Iowa and Chicago last year.

[mul21]

He's 21 and hit decently for a catcher. Don't we usually see catchers get better at hitting later since so much developmental time is spent learning how to catch and call a game?

[rawaction]

#'s 4-5 are the reasons I have him ranked here. Looks like a potential 20HR guy. He also really turned it up late in the season and really murdered LHP.

[CubsInNC]

I became convinced after seeing him this summer.

[Guest]

Sweet. This one is tied too.