Who is the Cubs #14 Prospect?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Still no love for Armando "13.4 K/9" Rivero?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

He's 26 and has 30 minor league innings, most in Kane County. If he starts doing it at Tenn and Iowa, then we'll have something.

[Guest]

Still no love for Armando "13.4 K/9" Rivero?

 

Too many mitigating factors to think about Rivero for me. The K's are obviously wonderful, but he's 25, a surefire reliever, only had 12 IP at A+/AA, and at his largest stint(KC, still only 18 IP) had a lot of warning signs(9+ H/9, alarming BB and HR numbers). Even as someone who thinks the 2013 draftees who've shown so little need to be lower than they likely will be, Rivero still clocks in below those guys because he's got a lower ceiling and proven just as little.

[craig]

What's the reasoning for Black over Pineyro? I think last time I ranked, I had them back-to-back, so obviously I don't see a big difference, but I had Pineyro ahead and the votes are heavily in Black's favor right now.

 

I have Black way ahead of Pineyro, based almost totally on fastball. My info may be faulty, but my perception is that Black is very fast and has a plus fastball. I think that may be true both for the velocity, and perhaps also some life/movement on it. Every report on Black has seemed to have the plus-velocity report.

 

My perception is that while Black's fastball is plus, that Pineyro essentially has a minus fastball. I think he's more on the Hendricks end of the spectrum, fastball-wise. Obviously control goes a long way, and PIneyro seems to have that.

 

Maybe I'm underestimating his velocity; maybe Johnson can work with him and he'll end up with perfectly average fastball velocity/life. Combined with good control an average-velocity fastball can be big-league effective. But my perception is that he's working with a lot less stuff than Black.

 

But, maybe my info is wrong and he's not really all THAT much slower than Black.

[craig]

Still no love for Armando "13.4 K/9" Rivero?

 

I'm with you on this one, Kyle. (Well, not enough to vote for him here, but enough to be VERY interested.)

 

Not sure why being 26 should really be held against him. That his Cuban situation interrupted his baseball career at age 22 doesn't impact his talent. If we moved him back in time three years and made him 23 again, would that increase what talent he does or doesn't have? I don't see the "ceiling" concern, either. If you've got a big fastball and a 13.4K/9 breaking ball, that suggests that he may have the stuff and the baseball talents to be a very effective big-league pitcher. That he didn't use those talents for several years doesn't change that.

 

I have no idea how he'll turn out, who can do more than guess? He'll not be the first guy with a strong fastball and a sometimes sharp breaking ball who can't locate the fastball, or control the breaking pitch with any consistency. He may be too wild to ever be any good. But with a big arm and some good coaching, maybe his splitter will develop into a deadly pitch, and he'll throw enough strikes with enough consistency to become a very good reliever. Maybe soon. 30 minor-league innings can't prove either way.

[toonsterwu]

craig, minus fastball for Pineyro? Velocity wise, it is at least in the low 90's, unless guns and reports are all off. He can locate it. Movement wise, I can't say, as it's been awhile. But ... it feels like it's at least an average, as of now, pitch.

[davell]

Yeah, I thought Pineyro sits around 89-90, but has amped it up to 93-94 on rare occasions. Black has the higher upside, which is why I have him higher, but they aren't separated by much, in my mind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The way I measure this is I think "if I had to lose someone from this list for absolutely nothing, who would upset me the most?"

 

That big pile of low-90s throwing, C-prospect, low-minors pitchers just don't meet that threshold for me yet.

[davell]

The way I measure this is I think "if I had to lose someone from this list for absolutely nothing, who would upset me the most?"

 

That big pile of low-90s throwing, C-prospect, low-minors pitchers just don't meet that threshold for me yet.

But Vitters does? What's the "dream" on him at this point? Solid short side of a platoon guy? To me, that's the epitome of "I don't give a [expletive] if we lose the guy".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The way I measure this is I think "if I had to lose someone from this list for absolutely nothing, who would upset me the most?"

 

That big pile of low-90s throwing, C-prospect, low-minors pitchers just don't meet that threshold for me yet.

But Vitters does? What's the "dream" on him at this point? Solid short side of a platoon guy? To me, that's the epitome of "I don't give a [expletive] if we lose the guy".

 

I'm already planning to be mad when Vitters doesn't win the starting LF job.

[craig]

The original scouting report in Muskat had "87-92 mph". That Washington traded him for Hairston fits with their not thinking he was very fast.

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2013/07/08/78-scouting-report-on-pineyro/

[davell]

The way I measure this is I think "if I had to lose someone from this list for absolutely nothing, who would upset me the most?"

 

That big pile of low-90s throwing, C-prospect, low-minors pitchers just don't meet that threshold for me yet.

But Vitters does? What's the "dream" on him at this point? Solid short side of a platoon guy? To me, that's the epitome of "I don't give a [expletive] if we lose the guy".

 

I'm already planning to be mad when Vitters doesn't win the starting LF job.

At who? He looked beyond pitiful in his one major league shot. He's going to have to play ridiculously well in ST or have multiple injuries happen, before he is your Opening Day LF.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

At who? He looked beyond pitiful in his one major league shot. He's going to have to play ridiculously well in ST or have multiple injuries happen, before he is your Opening Day LF.

 

The people making the decision. We're supposed to be smarter than being dazzled by a great cup of coffee or burying a guy for a bad one.

 

He'll probably pull his hamstring like two weeks from today and make it moot, though.

[davell]

At who? He looked beyond pitiful in his one major league shot. He's going to have to play ridiculously well in ST or have multiple injuries happen, before he is your Opening Day LF.

 

The people making the decision. We're supposed to be smarter than being dazzled by a great cup of coffee or burying a guy for a bad one.

 

He'll probably pull his hamstring like two weeks from today and make it moot, though.

Yes, because other than our FO, everyone in baseball is SUPER DUPER ENTHRALLED with Josh [expletive] Vitters.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes, because other than our FO, everyone in baseball is SUPER DUPER ENTHRALLED with Josh [expletive] Vitters.

 

The only knock you came up with was that he was terrible in 109 PAs in the majors. If you come up with a different reason why I shouldn't want him to win the starting LF job over Junior Lake and Chris Coghlan, I'll respond to that one.

 

The guy has hit 302/361/513 in his first 552 AAA PAs.

[craig]

..

At who? He looked beyond pitiful in his one major league shot. He's going to have to play ridiculously well in ST or have multiple injuries happen, before he is your Opening Day LF.

 

With platoons, a guy might start on opening day even if he doesn't start for the next week, if an opponent happens to have a lefty #1. Are we facing a RH starter on opening day?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

..

At who? He looked beyond pitiful in his one major league shot. He's going to have to play ridiculously well in ST or have multiple injuries happen, before he is your Opening Day LF.

 

With platoons, a guy might start on opening day even if he doesn't start for the next week, if an opponent happens to have a lefty #1. Are we facing a RH starter on opening day?

 

We open at Pittsburgh on March 31st, and they will presumably be sending out lefty Liriano.

 

Now I'm going to be doubly mad if Vitters isn't our opening day LFer.

[davell]

He's injury prone, he's considered too laid back, he has no true position, and it's been mentioned by most that major league pitchers are smart enough to get him to swing at their pitches, resulting in weak outs.(which is exactly what happened, other than when he was K'ing 30% of the time. He's considered to have average game power and his hit tool has declined in reputation because of his penchant of swinging at bad pitches. You're stuck on 109 ML at bats, but yet you're evidently lending credence to his 100 AAA at bats from 2013. I prefer to call them BOTH aberrations and see him as a guy that doesn't have the power to play a corner OF spot, nor the hit tool or plate discipline to make up for what's a very average package to work around.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's injury prone, he's considered too laid back, he has no true position, and it's been mentioned by most that major league pitchers are smart enough to get him to swing at their pitches, resulting in weak outs.(which is exactly what happened, other than when he was K'ing 30% of the time. He's considered to have average game power and his hit tool has declined in reputation because of his penchant of swinging at bad pitches. You're stuck on 109 ML at bats, but yet you're evidently lending credence to his 100 AAA at bats from 2013. I prefer to call them BOTH aberrations and see him as a guy that doesn't have the power to play a corner OF spot, nor the hit tool or plate discipline to make up for what's a very average package to work around.

 

 

I referenced 552 AAA PAs.

 

How much hit tool does he need? The average MLB LFer hit 252/320/399 last year.

 

Average game power and a decent-enough hit tool are more than enough for me to want to see him get a chance. Especially over Junior Lake, whom he was clearly better than at AAA the last two seasons.

[davell]

He's injury prone, he's considered too laid back, he has no true position, and it's been mentioned by most that major league pitchers are smart enough to get him to swing at their pitches, resulting in weak outs.(which is exactly what happened, other than when he was K'ing 30% of the time. He's considered to have average game power and his hit tool has declined in reputation because of his penchant of swinging at bad pitches. You're stuck on 109 ML at bats, but yet you're evidently lending credence to his 100 AAA at bats from 2013. I prefer to call them BOTH aberrations and see him as a guy that doesn't have the power to play a corner OF spot, nor the hit tool or plate discipline to make up for what's a very average package to work around.

 

 

I referenced 552 AAA PAs.

 

How much hit tool does he need? The average MLB LFer hit 252/320/399 last year.

 

Average game power and a decent-enough hit tool are more than enough for me to want to see him get a chance. Especially over Junior Lake, whom he was clearly better than at AAA the last two seasons.

You realize Lake had 170 AAA at bats altogether, right? Over one season, not two. And it's not like he struggled there, posting an .803 OPS himself. His versatility makes up for that difference. And whether we like it or believe in it, his major league numbers put him ahead of Vitters by a mile. At least he did some positive things while up, Vitters just looked lost.

 

No one believes in Lake as a long term answer, just people believe even less in Vitters. Do you actually think Vitters has more trade value than Lake does? Because while it's likely neither is even on the Cubs in 2 years, it's much easier to see a Vitters DFA and a Lake trade than the other way around.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If I had to guess, I'd say neither one of them end up with any trade value. But in alternate universes where each gets 500 PAs in the majors this year, I'd bet on Vitters coming out looking better.

 

And even in the majors:

BB% 5.8% 6.4%

K% 26.8% 30.3%

 

Lake was hot and Vitters wasn't in their brief MLB stints, but Lake was also absurdly lucky and Vitters was pretty unlucky and that contributes a lot to the perception that Lake "showed something" that Vitters didn't.

 

Any problems with Josh Vitters' bat you may have, you have to have the same ones about Junior Lake's and then some.

 

Do I think the difference between them is *that* big? Not really. But I'm rooting pretty hard for Vitters because I think it would be a great sign from the front office that they aren't going to be dazzled by Lake's Neifi-like two-month stint.

[Guest]

You're being a bit over-simplistic w/r/t the MLB performances(and I think you know that). There's reasons that Vitters only hit .120 with a sub-.400 OPS in 2 months/100 PA at that level, and batted ball luck isn't near the top of that list. Similarly, I'm not all that high on Lake(at least not as high as you were in August/September), but there's more reason for me to think he's the exception that proves the rule to projection/player development than there is that Vitters' MLB flop isn't to be considered. Namely, his 250 most recent PAs are him playing very well at the MLB level, where he showed himself athletic enough to be at least a good defensive LF and potentially CF, and punished mistakes(27% LD%,12.5% HR/FB) enough to make the combined package palatable enough when his BABIP inevitably regresses. I'm still bearish on Lake the league average OF, but a 1-2 win OF is more than I expect from Vitters. Honestly, I'm a good Spring Training and/or signs that he can play a good defensive OF from thinking Kalish is better than both of them.

[craig]

Not sure I get the Lake versus Vitters bit. I'm thinking Lake is for center, and Vitters is hoping to get a role in LF.

 

If Vitters were to make the roster right out of camp, barring injury it will be in a platoon. Lake might well be the one every-day starter in April, in center.

 

Things could then play out. If Vitters is hitting much better, perhaps he starts to get Lake's starts vs RHP with Sweeney playing more games in center.

 

I think the management scouting is somewhat intrigued by Lake's tools, and think his future may not be represented by his past stats.

[sneakypower]

they're likely more dazzled by the 1-2 win difference in the players' baserunning & defense

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is gonna be just like Dave Sappelt (indistinguishable from Soriano!) where I refuse to give up on the AAA slash line until he's like 28.