BP's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

[Guest]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

How's your doom boner?

[Guest]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

 

Well, it was more like "2/3 starter", which for Parks means anywhere between Matt Cain and Chris Rusin.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

If both Edwards and Johnson turn out to be #3 starters the Cubs should consider themselves lucky.

[davell]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

 

Well, it was more like "2/3 starter", which for Parks means anywhere between Matt Cain and Chris Rusin.

 

Huh? Parks is not easy to get "3" out of, it's a legit complement, coming from him. A guy like Rusin would get, at best, a "fringe 5" or something of that sort.

 

He's got both PJ and CJ in his overall top 100, it just shows the actual scarcity of finding TOR SP.

[Fro]

Edwards is an ace if someone in the Cubs actually discovers College Football strength & conditioning programs where guys gain 15-20 lbs of muscle in an offseason.

 

Instead it's LOL Edwards eats whatever he wants with no sign he actually is lifting weights or anything.

 

I still think there's a pretty massive advantage to be gained if we spend 1/4 of what the big college FB programs spend on strength/conditioning.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

How's your doom boner?

 

Raging majestically.

[Guest]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

 

Well, it was more like "2/3 starter", which for Parks means anywhere between Matt Cain and Chris Rusin.

 

Huh? Parks is not easy to get "3" out of, it's a legit complement, coming from him. A guy like Rusin would get, at best, a "fringe 5" or something of that sort.

 

He's got both PJ and CJ in his overall top 100, it just shows the actual scarcity of finding TOR SP.

 

Parks isn't the only one who does it, but the way he and other prospecting folk distort subjective comparisons like #x starter lead to people getting the wrong impression. Because they're willing to give #1 starter distinction to about 5-10 players in baseball, it leads to very different perception from what most people think when he says 3 starter. Rusin was an exaggeration to prove the point that the way they use those labels is so arbitrary that it's become nearly useless.

[SABR Gamer]

Edwards is an ace if someone in the Cubs actually discovers College Football strength & conditioning programs where guys gain 15-20 lbs of muscle in an offseason.

 

Instead it's LOL Edwards eats whatever he wants with no sign he actually is lifting weights or anything.

 

I still think there's a pretty massive advantage to be gained if we spend 1/4 of what the big college FB programs spend on strength/conditioning.

 

Buy more steroids!

[Guest]

Edwards is an ace if someone in the Cubs actually discovers College Football strength & conditioning programs where guys gain 15-20 lbs of muscle in an offseason.

 

Instead it's LOL Edwards eats whatever he wants with no sign he actually is lifting weights or anything.

 

I still think there's a pretty massive advantage to be gained if we spend 1/4 of what the big college FB programs spend on strength/conditioning.

 

College football doesn't care about steroids the way MLB does.

[davell]

Just to pick out the only downside in a massive piece of prospect porn, he had both Edwards and Johnson as No. 3 ceilings with likely results a reliever and No. 4.

 

Well, it was more like "2/3 starter", which for Parks means anywhere between Matt Cain and Chris Rusin.

 

Huh? Parks is not easy to get "3" out of, it's a legit complement, coming from him. A guy like Rusin would get, at best, a "fringe 5" or something of that sort.

 

He's got both PJ and CJ in his overall top 100, it just shows the actual scarcity of finding TOR SP.

 

Parks isn't the only one who does it, but the way he and other prospecting folk distort subjective comparisons like #x starter lead to people getting the wrong impression. Because they're willing to give #1 starter distinction to about 5-10 players in baseball, it leads to very different perception from what most people think when he says 3 starter. Rusin was an exaggeration to prove the point that the way they use those labels is so arbitrary that it's become nearly useless.

 

Unless Parks changed it to accomodate Bradley, I thought Parks was of the mindset that he won't put a "1" label on anyone. That it's earned after reaching the majors.

 

[expletive], disregard that. I see you were talking about the majors, with the 5-10 figure.

[A New Era]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

[treebird]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

 

that is not how prospects work

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I know the position player depth in the system isn't any kind of news, but it's pretty nice to see that the eighth ranked position player has a "realistic role" of major league regular. I poked around at a few other top tens and didn't see anything quite like that.

[davell]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

 

that is not how prospects work

 

Do you disagree? It IS how things work when you have a great player development program. Which we've finally got. At least if they carry over what they did for Boston.

[TruffleShuffle]

even great player development organizations have some busts. baez, for example, has a floor of striking out too much to be a major league baseball player. i don't think that will happen, but aside from the super-polished college bats and arms, almost everyone has a floor of complete bust.

[A New Era]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

 

that is not how prospects work

 

It is how it works for our top 3. Baez, Bryant, and Almora are all going to be at the VERY least, average major leaguers. They are all in what I consider that top tier of position prospects.

[Guest]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

 

that is not how prospects work

 

Do you disagree? It IS how things work when you have a great player development program. Which we've finally got. At least if they carry over what they did for Boston.

 

I certainly disagree with you.

[Guest]

I really wish it worked that way.

[toonsterwu]

Baez

Elite bat speed; elite hands; plus hand-eye coordination; can make hard contact to all fields; natural ability to barrel the ball; raw power is elite; game power could play to elite; arm is plus-plus; actions are easy plus in the field; baseball instincts; superstar profile.

 

The Tools: 8 power potential; 6+ potential hit; 7 arm; 6 potential glove

 

Overall Future Potential: High 7; perennial all-star player

 

Realistic Role: High 6; first-division/all-star

 

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here.

 

that is not how prospects work

 

It is how it works for our top 3. Baez, Bryant, and Almora are all going to be at the VERY least, average major leaguers. They are all in what I consider that top tier of position prospects.

 

I hate being the wet blanket, or whatever the phrase is that's slipping my mind right now, but to say "at the VERY least" they will be average major leaguers seems to be stretching it. I hope that happens, but there have been a ton of prospects where their "realistic role" projections/low end projections were supposed to be pretty solid, but they never panned out. Off the top, when Brandon Wood was coming up and "hot", I don't recall many low-end projections for him that didn't think he would at least be in the majors. Well, that didn't happen.

 

Guys busting/not meeting projections happens a ton. Sometimes it's injuries, and sometimes, with a guy in A ball, they just don't develop. I hope you are right, and that all three are at least "average major leaguers", but in all honesty, I'll be happy if one of them pans out as a regular. I hope for better, obviously.

 

For fun, let's pick out a Red Sox year (since Theo was there). Since we typically talk about 3-4 years as the appropriate time to assess prospects in a system, let's look at the Red Sox post-2009 lists:

 

BA Top 10:

1. Ryan Westmoreland, of

2. Casey Kelly, rhp

3. Josh Reddick, of

4. Lars Anderson, 1b

5. Ryan Kalish, of

6. Junichi Tazawa, rhp

7. Reymond Fuentes, of

8. Anthony Rizzo, 1b

9. Jose Iglesias, ss

10. Derrik Gibson, ss/2b

 

Link to BP post 2009 list:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762

 

Westmoreland was an unfortunate situation. The rest is a mixed bag as of now, and we're 4+ years after this list was done. Crap happens all the time. You hope for the best for all, and certainly our top 3 right now is thought of, talent wise, as better than that trio, but crap happens. I believe the above lists were a year after Lars Anderson was considered a stud prospect and Michael Bowden was still highly thought of at the time.

[davell]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

This is what I go back to and why with where our guys are ranked, we should wind up with damn good results.

[treebird]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

This is what I go back to and why with where our guys are ranked, we should wind up with damn good results.

 

i was looking for that earlier and couldn't find it. thanks!

 

for a new era, here's a good snippet:

 

About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.

[davell]

By the way, to clarify my thinking: With as many elite prospects as we have, I definitely expect 2 All Star types to emerge from within the group of 7 top 100 guys we have. Not necessarily between Javy, KB, and Almora alone.

 

Going further, out of the 7, my guess is we wind up with 2 All Stars, 2 regulars, another guy that sticks on the roster, with 2 complete busts. In 4 years, I'll check back on this and brag or call myself a dumbass.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

This is what I go back to and why with where our guys are ranked, we should wind up with damn good results.

 

i was looking for that earlier and couldn't find it. thanks!

 

for a new era, here's a good snippet:

 

About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.

 

I wonder how that breaks down based on level. One would think Baez and Bryant would have a better chance at succeeding as top 20 prospects at AAA and AA respectively than Almora(even with his stated high floor) at A+

[Guest]

it still seems so weird that almora is kind of slow