Offseason Rumors

[davell]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

 

We got one top-100 pitching prospect, a guy who can't see and two AAAA guys.

 

I like the return, but it's nothing like we were talking about getting for him back in 2012.

2 AAAA guys? Come on man. Grimm has a very good chance to contribute here for a long time, Ramirez has a relatively decent shot as well.

 

That said, the rumor was it was a 7 player deal at the deadline with Texas. One rumor had Russell going with Garza. My guess at the deal was Garza and Russell for Olt, Martin Perez, Grimm, Ramirez and a legit upside guy, like CJ, Sardinas, Odor, or Alfaro having been included.

 

Bottom line, waiting cost us Perez, in my opinion, while we'd have still gotten the rest of the return as well.

[Benny Rodriguez]

For this team to be competitive in 2015 and 2016 they need at least 2 above average starting pitchers. I like the chances of shark being one of them more than j like the chances of signing 2 guys like bailey and Max that may or may not reach free agency. I also think that in order for our pitching to sync with our hitting prospects we need to have a couple gambles pay off. Waiting to deal Garza didn't work out as planned but I'm cool with betting on shark to up his value. Unless we get a great offer now of course.

I don't think there is anyway we can sign both Schrezer and Bailey next off season. First, Detroit had made moves to be able to sign him, I don't think they'll let him get away. Second, with his age(5 months younger) and stats, I am pretty sure he expects more than what Sanchez got, which probably means around 20 mil a year and Bailey won't be far behind that.

Both are probably looking for many years (at least 5), Bailey at 27 could get 7 or more.

It would nice to see us drop close to 40 mil a year on a couple of starters but I don't see it. I think we hope Bailey is around, and we can get him. Then hope Shark and Wood both become what we hope. Then with Pierce, plus the FO ability to find solid back end guys we could be pretty solid.

[Benny Rodriguez]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

 

We got one top-100 pitching prospect, a guy who can't see and two AAAA guys.

 

I like the return, but it's nothing like we were talking about getting for him back in 2012.

 

You can't judge the deal against what you think they could have gotten, because unless you were in the room you don't know what is real.

Judge the deal on the deal. We traded a couple months of Matt Garza from a team, going nowhere for some solid prospects. If Olt, Edwards or Grimm make it, then we are much better off. High end, we could have a starting 3b, a starter and solid reliever (maybe 2 starters), worst case= all bomb and we missed out on maybe 5 wins from Garza.

[SouthSideRyan]

As far as you will be available, it sounds like Schrezer and Lester are pretty sure it resign with their teams.

But we are talking a true TOR guy.

Cain had huge drop off to 4.00 era last season, depends on what he comes up with this year but you have to worry.

Masterson career 4.03 era, had a great year but then he was almost a 5.00 the season before that.

Hammels is 2018 with a team option for 2019 when he'll be 36.

 

So Bailey could be the only target as a top end guy. He's young enough and is trending up as far as performance. Mat Latos is younger(26) and has been better, and he is free after 2015. I'm sure cincy will only be able to sign 1 if any of them.

 

He's wrong on Cain too. Cain is signed through 2017.

[Guest]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

 

We got one top-100 pitching prospect, a guy who can't see and two AAAA guys.

 

I like the return, but it's nothing like we were talking about getting for him back in 2012.

It's a bit early to call Ramirez a AAAA guy.

[NOLA]

I'm kind of intrigued watching Neil Ramirez this season.

[CubsWin]

Baez is an order of magnitude more valuable that Bradley. Pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects who haven't excelled at high levels like Bradley, are not nearly as valuable as their reputation.

Bradley posted at 1.97 ERA with a solid 1.23 WHIP and almost a K per inning at AA last season as a 20-year-old after completely dominating High-A. I consider AA a high level and I'd call that excelling.

[CubsWin]

Whereas there are good arguments for both trading Samardzija and extending him, determining which path to take doesn't seem all that difficult. It all comes down to the type of return the Cubs would get. The main reason to trade him is to have the incoming player (assuming he's good enough) align with the Cubs competitive window. If the D-Backs or Blue Jays feel there window is now, you field the offers and go from there.

[davell]

If Toronto is actually looking for TWO SP at this point, which has been mentioned, I could see this getting serious. Their system IS pitching-heavy and they have two protected picks in this upcoming draft to replenish from, if they do decide to make a trade.

 

Shark comes at a good price point for them as well, as his salary isn't all that high, which could allow them to still pursue Ubaldo or Santana as well.

 

That said, my guess is AA called Theo, the price hasn't changed, and there's nothing more to the rumor.

[Benny Rodriguez]

If Toronto is actually looking for TWO SP at this point, which has been mentioned, I could see this getting serious. Their system IS pitching-heavy and they have two protected picks in this upcoming draft to replenish from, if they do decide to make a trade.

 

Shark comes at a good price point for them as well, as his salary isn't all that high, which could allow them to still pursue Ubaldo or Santana as well.

 

That said, my guess is AA called Theo, the price hasn't changed, and there's nothing more to the rumor.

 

If we do deal Shark, I think we have to get at least 2 arms, and one needs to be a top guy, that is near ready (2015-ish) to replace what we have in Shark.

It doesn't make sense to take even good prospects, that are a long way from being ready. We have shark for 2 more years, he is legitimately a 2 or 3...we need to get at least that in return with a bonus arm or arms!

As far as trades, he is our last chip with high value unless we decide to dig into prospects (or Castro/Rizzo). We have some guys who can be traded, I just don't see anyone else getting a serious ML pitcher, or a stockpile of pitching prospects.

 

By the way KC is loaded with pitching prospects(10 of their top 20 overall), several are ready now . This type of trade may fit into their scheme. They get a very good ML starter under control for a few years to replace Santana at a lower cost.

KC is hoping to compete again, they have cost restraints, and probably lose Shields after this year. They could trade one of the top 2 prospects, along with another later arriving arm and not miss them at all.

[pitchcs]

Baez is an order of magnitude more valuable that Bradley. Pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects who haven't excelled at high levels like Bradley, are not nearly as valuable as their reputation.

 

But still, he's basically correct.

 

He is not. If Bradley could remotely counted on to approximate Samardzija's performance, then sure, but you're bypassing the uncertainty by dealing for him without really sacrificing any upside because of the quality of Shark's stuff.

 

What is incorrect?

 

AZ would not trade Bradley for Shark right now, seems pretty simple to me.

[pitchcs]

Where I don't agree is there being no available arms in the near future besides Price. Just next year you have Masterson, Homer Bailey, Scherzer and Lester (?) I think. And the next year Hamels and Cain??

 

No, there won't be a Kershaw/Sale/Darvish available, but eventually one of those types of guys will be available to us in the draft in a strong year.

I'm not slamming your post, but what makes anyone think that Theo/Ricketts has the wherewithal to get a top tier free agent? Nothing in their track record shows that.

 

Has the wherewithal to get a top FA? Huh?

 

I would say offering the most money when available is all that really matters and I'm confident we will do that eventually. It's not like it's college recruiting and you pick the place with pretty girls and a cool coach.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not at all confident we'll be offering the most money to any meaningful free agents anytime under the Epstein era.

[Bull]

I'm not at all confident we'll be offering the most money to any meaningful free agents anytime under the Epstein era.

I would agree since all along Theo has indicated that he intends to growi talent on the farm and then keepi them as long as they provide value for their contracts. Agree or disagree with the theory, it is clearly the theory they are operating under.

[pitchcs]

I'm not at all confident we'll be offering the most money to any meaningful free agents anytime under the Epstein era.

I would agree since all along Theo has indicated that he intends to growi talent on the farm and then keepi them as long as they provide value for their contracts. Agree or disagree with the theory, it is clearly the theory they are operating under.

 

Yeah, for now. You really think a 90 win team wouldn't add a big time FA pitcher if available and a need the next offseason?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, for now. You really think a 90 win team wouldn't add a big time FA pitcher if available and a need the next offseason?

 

If it meant going big on years and money? No, I don't think they would. They'd draw a line in the sand on what they thought such a player was worth and get outbid.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm not at all confident we'll be offering the most money to any meaningful free agents anytime under the Epstein era.

I would agree since all along Theo has indicated that he intends to growi talent on the farm and then keepi them as long as they provide value for their contracts. Agree or disagree with the theory, it is clearly the theory they are operating under.

 

Yeah, for now. You really think a 90 win team wouldn't add a big time FA pitcher if available and a need the next offseason?

Probably not. Obviously depends on the player, but my guess is that they'd try and trade prospects for a younger guy with a few years of control.

[Bull]

Yeah, for now. You really think a 90 win team wouldn't add a big time FA pitcher if available and a need the next offseason?

 

If it meant going big on years and money? No, I don't think they would. They'd draw a line in the sand on what they thought such a player was worth and get outbid.

Depends on age too. Not happening with a 30+ year old.

[neely crenshaw]

Theo at least has a history of getting top starting pitchers when needed. Although they were done in trades and not FA, he went and got Schilling before winning their first WS, and got Beckett the year before their next.

[Sammy Sofa]

BENNY?!?

[Benny Rodriguez]

yes?

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, clearly these are two different guys.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

They're not. Or else they live in the same house and use the same computer.

[MWV]

They're not. Or else they live in the same house and use the same computer.

And that computer has a busted enter key.

Sounds believable to me.