2013 AFL Thread

[SouthSideRyan]

Because ceiling is stupid and doesn't even really mean what it seems like it should mean.

 

Yep, I'd bet most guys who reach their ceiling attain a higher level than their "ceiling" was graded out at.

[Guest]

Because ceiling is stupid and doesn't even really mean what it seems like it should mean.

 

Yep, I'd bet most guys who reach their ceiling attain a higher level than their "ceiling" was graded out at.

 

Yeah...like nobody was saying Miguel Cabrera might be one of the best hitters in the history of the game when he was the #12 prospect 10 years go or whatever.

[KingCubsFan]

Because ceiling is stupid and doesn't even really mean what it seems like it should mean.

 

Yep, I'd bet most guys who reach their ceiling attain a higher level than their "ceiling" was graded out at.

 

Yeah...like nobody was saying Miguel Cabrera might be one of the best hitters in the history of the game when he was the #12 prospect 10 years go or whatever.

I remember Adam Wainwright having a ceiling of a #2 or 3 if everything went right.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Basically, all of this.

 

Shocking, but I was having this argument about the meanings of words with someone else the other day on the internet.

 

Basically, there's a reason that scouting reports use "present" and "future projection" and not "floor" and "ceiling." They aren't the same thing, and the latter two are almost universally obsessed over by fans, but they don't mean a whole lot.

[Guest]

Basically, all of this.

 

Shocking, but I was having this argument about the meanings of words with someone else the other day on the internet.

 

Basically, there's a reason that scouting reports use "present" and "future projection" and not "floor" and "ceiling." They aren't the same thing, and the latter two are almost universally obsessed over by fans, but they don't mean a whole lot.

I understand what you're saying here, but I disagree. It is a more than inexact science, you have to include some amount of scouting projection in the evaluation of prospects. Otherwise you end up with Brendan Harris = Albert Pujols.

 

 

 

Actually, both sides of that equation are cautionary tales, just on the opposite sides of the argument. Pujols shows how wrong scouting projections can be. Harris shows the folly of looking at performance without the scouting projections.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You should totally do scouting projection. But there's an important difference between projection and ceiling.

 

Scouting projection is "here's where I think this guy is going to go." Ceiling is "where could this guy end up if everything goes well, but not too well because we don't want to sound crazy and really anybody can be anything."

[Guest]

You should totally do scouting projection. But there's an important difference between projection and ceiling.

 

Scouting projection is "here's where I think this guy is going to go." Ceiling is "where could this guy end up if everything goes well, but not too well because we don't want to sound crazy and really anybody can be anything."

Never mind. I don't know why I read your post thinking you meant the latter two as "future projection" and "ceiling" instead of "floor" and "ceiling". That being the case, I'll amend my response a bit.

 

I still think that those two words can be used as shorthand for the concept that every player has a distribution of possible outcomes and it is a reasonable thing to talk about the 10% and 90% points on the curve as well as the most likely outcome.

 

Of course, that's not necessarily the common usage of the terms.

 

Floor and ceiling are particularly difficult for pitchers, of course. The true floor for every pitcher is injured and out of the game. Ceiling can be dramatically altered by adding a new pitch, a slight change in mechanics that can dramatically improve command, etc.

[davell]

Bad call robs Bryant of a HR, ruled ground rule 2B.

[davell]

Almora is 0-3, Bryant 1-2 with a 2B, RBI, and a K and Soler is 1-2 with an RBI.

[CubInOK]

Almora is 0-3, Bryant 1-2 with a 2B, RBI, and a K and Soler is 1-2 with an RBI.

Bust. We never should have drafted him.

[Guest]

Bryant HR

[davell]

Bryant HR

[expletive] Beast.

[Guest]

Bryant HR

[expletive] Beast.

 

Arizona Fall League ‏@MLBazFallLeague 1m

Mesa 3B and #Cubs prospect Kris Bryant hits a two-run moonshot to left, cutting Surprise's lead in half. It is now 9-7 Sags through 4 #AFL13

[davell]

Bryant HR

[expletive] Beast.

 

Arizona Fall League ‏@MLBazFallLeague 1m

Mesa 3B and #Cubs prospect Kris Bryant hits a two-run moonshot to left, cutting Surprise's lead in half. It is now 9-7 Sags through 4 #AFL13

Soler then hit one just as far, but foul. Then singled.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/L3bwQ0v.jpg?1

[WrigleyField 22]

He has the smile of a QB All American and the eyes of Voldermort. Love it.

[davell]

AGAIN BITCHES!!!!!!

[Guest]

Ok. Maybe Jesse Rogers is smart and we're all dumbasses.

[Gilby]

I'm in love.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/L3bwQ0v.jpg?1

[TruffleShuffle]

Just watched #Cubs Kris Bryant hit towering HR that cleared 2nd fence in deep LF here at Hohokam. #crushed

 

[rawaction]

Can I go to sleep tonight and wakeup in April 2015?

[davell]

I think Bryant would put up the best OPS on our major league team if he played all season there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Bryant would put up the best OPS on our major league team if he played all season there.

 

Now that you said it, I kind of think that too.

[Guest]

I wouldn't put it past Baez, either.