Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Soul]

Why are we failing so badly to match pitching prospects with our position prospects?

 

It obviously wouldn't hurt so bad to lose on Tanaka if there were others coming up.

[KingCubsFan]

Why are we failing so badly to match pitching prospects with our position prospects?

 

It obviously wouldn't hurt so bad to lose on Tanaka if there were others coming up.

For one, our top picks have been position players. And Theo/Jed came into the organization with absolutely zero pitching prospects. They've drafted a lot of quality, but most of the picks were raw and are well behind the positional talent.

[Guest]

Why are we failing so badly to match pitching prospects with our position prospects?

 

It obviously wouldn't hurt so bad to lose on Tanaka if there were others coming up.

 

All the Cubs elite hitting prospects are either top 10 picks or one of the most expensive international prospect FA signings ever. So with the best opportunities for elite talent, they've ignore pitching (whether intentionally or not).

 

Obviously you don't need to be a top 10 pick to be an elite prospect so hopefully some of their later round/smaller bonus IFAs come through too.

[Guest]

They also aren't completely barren with pitching, 2 in MLB's Top 100 is probably a touch above average, actually. It just looks that way since the position player quality is near historically good.

[Guest]

They also aren't completely barren with pitching, 2 in MLB's Top 100 is probably a touch above average, actually. It just looks that way since the position player quality is near historically good.

 

even ignoring the fact that Hendricks is near ML-ready and is a real prospect in his own right.

[davell]

Plenty of guys with nice upside in the lower levels. Our top 10 pitching prospects likely come in, in the upper half of all of MLB. It's just the position players we've got are ridiculous. So, while the pitching isn't a strength, it's not a weakness either.

 

The top picks have been position guys in both drafts, but the majority of the 2-10 round picks have been pitching. In IFA, we've gotten some excellent high upside types each year as well. Plus, the selloffs have brought us pitching prospects as the main return in most deals.

 

If the 4th pick of the draft winds up being a pitcher, coupled with a breakout or two, our pitching could easily jump into the "strength" category, even moreso if Shark gets dealt at some point.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Tanaka idea was intriguing

 

Tanaka was a crucial necessity.

 

How so? We're entirely unable to compete for __ years b/c we didn't sign him.

 

Because the starting pitcher FA market looks like garbage for a while and the Cubs don't have a whole lot of pitching prospects to trade or rely on. They needed to get him.

[Guest]

Next year's FA SP market is fantastic, even considering that a couple might get extensions. Lester, Masterson, Scherzer, Shields at the high end, Bailey, Cueto, Anderson, Josh Johnson, and Maeda as intermediate options. Say what you want about their willingness to spend on those guys, but there's opportunity.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not terrible optimistic that the best ones are going to hit the market if they're traded.

[Tracer Bullet]

Next year's FA SP market is fantastic, even considering that a couple might get extensions. Lester, Masterson, Scherzer, Shields at the high end, Bailey, Cueto, Anderson, Josh Johnson, and Maeda as intermediate options. Say what you want about their willingness to spend on those guys, but there's opportunity.

 

Exactly. Why have I read so many posts claiming that the FA class sucks? Some of those guys with get extensions (Lester basically said publicly yesterday that he'd play for peanuts to stay in Boston), but that's a lot of quality SP that'll be available for just money in 10 months.

[Guest]

I'm not terrible optimistic that the best ones are going to hit the market if they're traded.

 

I think that actually makes it more likely they hit the market, since they don't have a relationship with the new team, and more importantly, their relative value gets a bump because they don't have a draft pick attached. Has there been a deadline deal with a good SP in the new CBA that re-upped with that team? Garza, Dempster, and Greinke didn't, anyone else?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The strength of the SP market is irrelevant when they won't sign ordinary FA SPs. We don't appear to be interested in large deals for guys who are older than 29 in their first season of the contract. That leaves pretty much just Homer Bailey.

[sneakypower]

I'm not terrible optimistic that the best ones are going to hit the market if they're traded.

 

I think that actually makes it more likely they hit the market, since they don't have a relationship with the new team, and more importantly, their relative value gets a bump because they don't have a draft pick attached. Has there been a deadline deal with a good SP in the new CBA that re-upped with that team? Garza, Dempster, and Greinke didn't, anyone else?

Anibal?

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not terrible optimistic that the best ones are going to hit the market if they're traded.

 

I think that actually makes it more likely they hit the market, since they don't have a relationship with the new team, and more importantly, their relative value gets a bump because they don't have a draft pick attached. Has there been a deadline deal with a good SP in the new CBA that re-upped with that team? Garza, Dempster, and Greinke didn't, anyone else?

 

Guys like Garza and Dempster are clearly not what this FO is willing to spend on. If someone like Greinke is out there and they can land him, hey, great, but I really only think Bailey is the only one along those lines who might end up out there. I just think he's going to be traded and he's going to cost so much (and coupled with his age) that whatever team lands him is going to go all out to re-sign him.

[CubsWin]

First off, ouch. Not getting Tanaka was a blow that took me days to recover from. I'm still not completely out of the funk.

 

I think while it is accurate to say the 2015 FA pitching list is pretty good right now, it is yet to be seen what it will look like when the 2014 off-season arrives. All of this would have been so much easier if the Yankees had chosen to stay under the luxury tax limit. I'm still not over it.

 

Whereas the Cubs have not been interested in signing players in their 30s in the first two years of the rebuild, that will likely change as the team progresses. Or if the team progresses. That's why 2014 is such a big year. If top prospects show they are ready and key major league assets progress in their development (Castro, Arrieta, Samardzija, Rizzo, Castillo even Olt & Lake), the rebuild will likely be at the stage where adding such a player will make sense. Of course, adding the best FA pitcher you can get to a staff with Tanaka, Samardzija and Wood already on it would've been ideal, but...yeah.

 

The key is the Cubs need an ace. Or at least as close to an ace as possible. The likelihood of signing one isn't great but it exists. I think the Cubs best chance of getting such a player is in a trade. That's the whole point of drafting the safer hitting prospects in the first place. Take the asset that has the best chance of reaching their ceiling to maximize value and fix the imbalance on the roster later. It might be time to wrap our heads around trading a top prospect at some point. With a Castro bounceback and continued to development of Edwards or Johnson, it might be possible to create a package without trading Baez or Bryant. But the Cubs are going to need elite frontline pitching if they're going to win a championship.

[Guest]

Which is why you hope Edwards continues to dominate. The Cubs already have 2 good mid - rotation guys and a back end innings- eater- type. If they can add an ace via FA and Edwards dominates, they have a very good staff.

[Deeg]

I like Edwards a lot, but I haven't seen anyone - not even his biggest fans in the scouting community - suggest he could be a #1 starter.

 

Realistically the best chance (assuming you're not going to trade Baez or Bryant, which I wouldn't) is to try and get somebody to give you a prospect with TOR potential for Samardzija, even if he's a couple of years away. It seems no one was willing to do that yet, but if he has a very solid 1st half it could happen in July. The Cubs aren't going to sign a TOR free agent, period - not next offseason, and not any time in the next several years. They'll have to blow the field away financially to have a chance, and they weren't willing to do that with a 25 year-old FA with no draft compensation. They sure as hell won't for a 30 year-old.

[Guest]

I like Edwards a lot, but I haven't seen anyone - not even his biggest fans in the scouting community - suggest he could be a #1 starter.

 

Realistically the best chance (assuming you're not going to trade Baez or Bryant, which I wouldn't) is to try and get somebody to give you a prospect with TOR potential for Samardzija, even if he's a couple of years away. It seems no one was willing to do that yet, but if he has a very solid 1st half it could happen in July. The Cubs aren't going to sign a TOR free agent, period - not next offseason, and not any time in the next several years. They'll have to blow the field away financially to have a chance, and they weren't willing to do that with a 25 year-old FA with no draft compensation. They sure as hell won't for a 30 year-old.

 

first of all, i didn't mean to insinuate that Edwards has ace potential. i think the stuff is there but the makeup isn't, though he hasn't averaged lower than 11 k/9 at any level to this point. but a lot of people are saying 2-3, which, given Wood remaining in the middle and Shark remaining near a top-level guy, could put him in a strong rotation, possibly, in 2015. Scherzer's going to hit the market, it seems, and the Cubs should have a TV deal, which Theo has openly stated will be a game changer. The Cubs will be the team with the most to offer and could potentially not be outbid. If the Cubs sign Shark long-term, add Scherzer, and Edwards joins as a solid 2-3, that gives you:

 

Scherzer

Shark

Wood

Edwards

Jackson

 

The Cubs are already famous for having a top group of positional prospects, the bulk of which will be ready to contribute by opening day 2015, to think that FA pitchers don't know that is foolish. They will add a big name FA pitcher by 2015.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are already famous for having a top group of positional prospects, the bulk of which will be ready to contribute by opening day 2015, to think that FA pitchers don't know that is foolish. They will add a big name FA pitcher by 2015.

 

To think that veteran FA pitchers give two shits about the rankings of 20 year prospects is a bit of a stretch. Baseball veterans hate young players. They aren't putting their future in the hands of kids.

[Guest]

The Cubs are already famous for having a top group of positional prospects, the bulk of which will be ready to contribute by opening day 2015, to think that FA pitchers don't know that is foolish. They will add a big name FA pitcher by 2015.

 

To think that veteran FA pitchers give two [expletive] about the rankings of 20 year prospects is a bit of a stretch. Baseball veterans hate young players. They aren't putting their future in the hands of kids.

But they also like money, right? Or am I totally off base, here? They'll put their futures in the hands of a stacked young team that is the high bid for their services.

[WrigleyField 22]

The Cubs are already famous for having a top group of positional prospects, the bulk of which will be ready to contribute by opening day 2015, to think that FA pitchers don't know that is foolish. They will add a big name FA pitcher by 2015.

 

To think that veteran FA pitchers give two [expletive] about the rankings of 20 year prospects is a bit of a stretch. Baseball veterans hate young players. They aren't putting their future in the hands of kids.

But they also like money, right? Or am I totally off base, here? They'll put their futures in the hands of a stacked young team that is the high bid for their services.

Even with TV money the problem is the Cubs being outbid. We can say with some certainty they'd be involved on a top young FA pitcher, but are they going to go for it all even if it means going outside their comfort level? It was the Yankees this time. Maybe it won't be them again, but the Dodgers or some other team is always gonna be in play. LA and NY just may switch off every year and outbid us each time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are we failing so badly to match pitching prospects with our position prospects?

 

It obviously wouldn't hurt so bad to lose on Tanaka if there were others coming up.

 

Because we spent three straight high draft picks and $30m on hitting prospects, and all we've invested in pitching is 2nd round picks and $6m for Gerardo Concepcion.

 

They have done a nice job of closing the gap, though. Our pitching organizationally is a nagging problem, but that's an upgrade from swirling vortex of despair.

[Guest]

The Cubs are already famous for having a top group of positional prospects, the bulk of which will be ready to contribute by opening day 2015, to think that FA pitchers don't know that is foolish. They will add a big name FA pitcher by 2015.

 

To think that veteran FA pitchers give two [expletive] about the rankings of 20 year prospects is a bit of a stretch. Baseball veterans hate young players. They aren't putting their future in the hands of kids.

But they also like money, right? Or am I totally off base, here? They'll put their futures in the hands of a stacked young team that is the high bid for their services.

Even with TV money the problem is the Cubs being outbid. We can say with some certainty they'd be involved on a top young FA pitcher, but are they going to go for it all even if it means going outside their comfort level? It was the Yankees this time. Maybe it won't be them again, but the Dodgers or some other team is always gonna be in play. LA and NY just may switch off every year and outbid us each time.

 

The Dodgers have long-term deals with their top 2 and are paying them nearly 60 mil per between them. Yeah, they have a spend-happy ownership group and a huge TV deal that allows it, but we will have a deal by then, too and don't have really any money tied up as of yet. When Shark gets a deal done, it won't be for Kershaw or Greinke-type money. Is Scherzer going to go for more than Kershaw? Probably not, he'll most likely come in between he and Greinke. We could probably outbid anyone for his services, sign Shark long-term, and still have a modest payroll in 2015.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Astros have a more highly rated farm system and tons of money to spend. Wouldn't you fall down laughing if I told you I was worried about beating them out for a free agent? We're the Astros

[Guest]

The Astros have a more highly rated farm system and tons of money to spend. Wouldn't you fall down laughing if I told you I was worried about beating them out for a free agent? We're the Astros

 

i'd put our big 4 up against any other in baseball, especially regarding power potential in a league that lacks it.