Chicago Blackhawks Offseason Thread

[SABR Gamer]

"Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be here forever,” said Bowman, the Blackhawks’ Vice President/General Manager. “I can’t predict what the salary cap will be in the near future, but I can tell you that Jonathan and Patrick will be on this team. Those two players put the Blackhawks back on the map, they’re up in a couple years, and whatever the numbers are, we’ll figure out the details. The notion that the money we’re spending now will affect our ability to keep Jonathan and Kane…it’s a non-issue. They will be here no matter what."

[UMFan83]

"Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be here forever,” said Bowman, the Blackhawks’ Vice President/General Manager. “I can’t predict what the salary cap will be in the near future, but I can tell you that Jonathan and Patrick will be on this team. Those two players put the Blackhawks back on the map, they’re up in a couple years, and whatever the numbers are, we’ll figure out the details. The notion that the money we’re spending now will affect our ability to keep Jonathan and Kane…it’s a non-issue. They will be here no matter what."

 

Strong negotiation tactic

[UMFan83]

So training camp starts in less than a week (Sept 12). It still feels like yesterday the Hawks won the Cup. The Hawks will still be really good and a favorite in the West once the playoffs start, but does anyone see bit of a fall off during the regular season?

 

-extremely short offseason

-coming off a condensed season that didn't provide a lot of rest between games

-this year is another condensed season with the olympic break in between

-Hawks will have up to 10 players in the olympics, playing playoff intensity games in the middle of february before coming home to the dog days of the season (you can point out that the hawks won the cup the last time there was an olympic break but the olympics were in canada, this time they are half a world away in russia)

-presumably less depth without Bolland, Stalberg, Frolik, etc. meaning more reliance on top lines/pairings Have to assume we wont have a 100% success rate in replacing them with young guys

 

I could see the Hawks being towards the middle of the playoff picture most of the season and finishing somewhere in the 4-7 range before (hopefully) turning it on in the playoffs. Hope I'm wrong and the Hawks surprise me. Either way its great to talk about another season starting.

[biittner77]

Health will be an issue as well in that the players that would have provided last years depth are either on the roster or gone.

 

The team will also not be quite as fast as it was last year.

 

Chances are the PK will not be as dominant while the PP (probably) still is clown shoes.

 

On the other hand, Pirri has a pretty decent chance of being a better 2nd line center than Bolland was during the regular season. I believe that Morin will be a force on the 3rd or 4th line and Shaw will be better returning to 4th line wing where he belongs.

 

The Hawks will still be very good and ought to win their division.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

"Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be here forever,” said Bowman, the Blackhawks’ Vice President/General Manager. “I can’t predict what the salary cap will be in the near future, but I can tell you that Jonathan and Patrick will be on this team. Those two players put the Blackhawks back on the map, they’re up in a couple years, and whatever the numbers are, we’ll figure out the details. The notion that the money we’re spending now will affect our ability to keep Jonathan and Kane…it’s a non-issue. They will be here no matter what."

 

Strong negotiation tactic

Come on, do you really think him saying that changes or impacts anything in terms of negotiations? Are you in any way surprised that is their thinking? I know I would be shocked if that wasn't the case.

[Pushfrog98]

"Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be here forever,” said Bowman, the Blackhawks’ Vice President/General Manager. “I can’t predict what the salary cap will be in the near future, but I can tell you that Jonathan and Patrick will be on this team. Those two players put the Blackhawks back on the map, they’re up in a couple years, and whatever the numbers are, we’ll figure out the details. The notion that the money we’re spending now will affect our ability to keep Jonathan and Kane…it’s a non-issue. They will be here no matter what."

 

Strong negotiation tactic

Come on, do you really think him saying that changes or impacts anything in terms of negotiations? Are you in any way surprised that is their thinking? I know I would be shocked if that wasn't the case.

Well, up until this point, Kane and Toews both thought they were merely adequate players. Now that Stan has pumped up their egos, they're going to start acting like super stars and demand to be paid as such.

[SABR Gamer]

So training camp starts in less than a week (Sept 12). It still feels like yesterday the Hawks won the Cup. The Hawks will still be really good and a favorite in the West once the playoffs start, but does anyone see bit of a fall off during the regular season?

 

-extremely short offseason

-coming off a condensed season that didn't provide a lot of rest between games

-this year is another condensed season with the olympic break in between

-Hawks will have up to 10 players in the olympics, playing playoff intensity games in the middle of february before coming home to the dog days of the season (you can point out that the hawks won the cup the last time there was an olympic break but the olympics were in canada, this time they are half a world away in russia)

-presumably less depth without Bolland, Stalberg, Frolik, etc. meaning more reliance on top lines/pairings Have to assume we wont have a 100% success rate in replacing them with young guys

 

I could see the Hawks being towards the middle of the playoff picture most of the season and finishing somewhere in the 4-7 range before (hopefully) turning it on in the playoffs. Hope I'm wrong and the Hawks surprise me. Either way its great to talk about another season starting.

 

 

All very good points. I think it's very reasonable to expect a drop off, but considering how great they were last year I think that drop off could happen and they could still end up as a top 3 seed.

[Guest]

"Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be here forever,” said Bowman, the Blackhawks’ Vice President/General Manager. “I can’t predict what the salary cap will be in the near future, but I can tell you that Jonathan and Patrick will be on this team. Those two players put the Blackhawks back on the map, they’re up in a couple years, and whatever the numbers are, we’ll figure out the details. The notion that the money we’re spending now will affect our ability to keep Jonathan and Kane…it’s a non-issue. They will be here no matter what."

 

Strong negotiation tactic

Come on, do you really think him saying that changes or impacts anything in terms of negotiations? Are you in any way surprised that is their thinking? I know I would be shocked if that wasn't the case.

 

i read it as basically saying "shut up you idiots, we're not going to miss out on toews or kane because we gave crawford and hjalmarsson extensions"

[brinoch]

alright kids, let's not [expletive] our pants here. crow's deal is kind of ugly in terms of years. however, if the growth in the cap pans out the way people expect, then there will be plenty of room to keep the core intact

 

It's not just years, I just don't think he's anything special. I don't really care if he would have gotten more from somebody else, that is a terrible way to justify moves. Sports management types are notoriously foolish with money. Goalies come and go and aside from a very select few, do not impact the team all that much.

 

The Blackhawks don't just have to keep Toews/Kane intact, they will need to bring in more talent from outside the organization, not to mention pay the next wave of talent when those raises are due.

 

We really don't need to bring in outside talent. The Hawks have done an excellent job with drafting/developing prospects and trading mediocre or overpaid players for picks/prospects.

[brinoch]

I think Crow's deal is for too much and for too long, frankly. I wonder if this is a reaction to the paucity of goalie talent in the system? I don't know, but it doesn't seem like a deal the Bowmans would typically make. The model has always been cheap goalies with highly paid elite defense/scoring. That said, I'm very pleased with Hjalmarsson's deal. It is movable and below market for a key stay at home defenseman. Best deal of the summer, for sure. Bickell's deal seems... meh. Below market, but I think the market was overpaying for playoff performance. That said, if he keeps bringing that for the playoffs, we'll be very happy.

[Drew Doughty]

I think Crow's deal is for too much and for too long, frankly. I wonder if this is a reaction to the paucity of goalie talent in the system? I don't know, but it doesn't seem like a deal the Bowmans would typically make. The model has always been cheap goalies with highly paid elite defense/scoring. That said, I'm very pleased with Hjalmarsson's deal. It is movable and below market for a key stay at home defenseman. Best deal of the summer, for sure. Bickell's deal seems... meh. Below market, but I think the market was overpaying for playoff performance. That said, if he keeps bringing that for the playoffs, we'll be very happy.

 

I think it's a reaction to the state of flux the Hawks' net wound up in after letting Niemi get away. Not the right decision to me, but I imagine that's his reasoning.

 

I don't think any goalie should get a big contract unless he's, I dunno, Henrik Lundqvist or Roberto Luongo (and even his deal has turned into a trainwreck). Goalies vary too much year to year based on too many things (talent of team in front of them, luck, tactical changes to penalty kills, random variance, injury, luck, and more luck) to be counted on. How many goalies are in the conversation for Vezina every single season? Lundqvist. Anyone else? Tuukka Rask will probably wind up in that conversation at some point (especially if he stays behind a Claude Julien defense). I'm struggling to think of anyone else. Carey Price has some of the best technical skill I've seen in the entire league, but he's had back to back pedestrian seasons. Braden Holtby is another guy with big technical skill and he had an awful save percentage through half the season. I think that's what's frightening. Even these guys that LOOK great have really mediocre seasons for no reason visible reason from their end. As in, there isn't an obvious reason why suddenly these goals are trickling through them as opposed to sticking in their pads or jerseys or rolling just wide. It happens to every goalie in the league except for 2 or 3 per generation.

 

I LOVE Jon Quick, guy makes some tremendous saves. I hated his contract from day 1 (I do think he's much better than his 2013 though) and I think the Kings have made an enormous mistake in letting Bernier go to Toronto in order to let Quick be "the guy" for the next decade. That's a guy that had a season pretty similar to what Crawford just went through.

 

I think Ken Holland said that, basically, you only pay for a top 5 goalie in the league (which really makes you wonder about signing Jimmy Howard). The gap from the 6th best goalie in the game to the 15th best goalie in the game is always marginal and the players move around all the time. Unless you're buying Dominik Hasek, you're almost better just taking a bunch of fliers on guys with raw skill (like the Hawks did with Emery which worked out really well for them).

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I think Crow's deal is for too much and for too long, frankly. I wonder if this is a reaction to the paucity of goalie talent in the system? I don't know, but it doesn't seem like a deal the Bowmans would typically make. The model has always been cheap goalies with highly paid elite defense/scoring. That said, I'm very pleased with Hjalmarsson's deal. It is movable and below market for a key stay at home defenseman. Best deal of the summer, for sure. Bickell's deal seems... meh. Below market, but I think the market was overpaying for playoff performance. That said, if he keeps bringing that for the playoffs, we'll be very happy.

 

I think it's a reaction to the state of flux the Hawks' net wound up in after letting Niemi get away. Not the right decision to me, but I imagine that's his reasoning.

 

I don't think any goalie should get a big contract unless he's, I dunno, Henrik Lundqvist or Roberto Luongo (and even his deal has turned into a trainwreck). Goalies vary too much year to year based on too many things (talent of team in front of them, luck, tactical changes to penalty kills, random variance, injury, luck, and more luck) to be counted on. How many goalies are in the conversation for Vezina every single season? Lundqvist. Anyone else? Tuukka Rask will probably wind up in that conversation at some point (especially if he stays behind a Claude Julien defense). I'm struggling to think of anyone else. Carey Price has some of the best technical skill I've seen in the entire league, but he's had back to back pedestrian seasons. Braden Holtby is another guy with big technical skill and he had an awful save percentage through half the season. I think that's what's frightening. Even these guys that LOOK great have really mediocre seasons for no reason visible reason from their end. As in, there isn't an obvious reason why suddenly these goals are trickling through them as opposed to sticking in their pads or jerseys or rolling just wide. It happens to every goalie in the league except for 2 or 3 per generation.

 

I LOVE Jon Quick, guy makes some tremendous saves. I hated his contract from day 1 (I do think he's much better than his 2013 though) and I think the Kings have made an enormous mistake in letting Bernier go to Toronto in order to let Quick be "the guy" for the next decade. That's a guy that had a season pretty similar to what Crawford just went through.

 

I think Ken Holland said that, basically, you only pay for a top 5 goalie in the league (which really makes you wonder about signing Jimmy Howard). The gap from the 6th best goalie in the game to the 15th best goalie in the game is always marginal and the players move around all the time. Unless you're buying Dominik Hasek, you're almost better just taking a bunch of fliers on guys with raw skill (like the Hawks did with Emery which worked out really well for them).

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

[Guest]

So training camp starts in less than a week (Sept 12). It still feels like yesterday the Hawks won the Cup. The Hawks will still be really good and a favorite in the West once the playoffs start, but does anyone see bit of a fall off during the regular season?

 

-extremely short offseason

-coming off a condensed season that didn't provide a lot of rest between games

-this year is another condensed season with the olympic break in between

-Hawks will have up to 10 players in the olympics, playing playoff intensity games in the middle of february before coming home to the dog days of the season (you can point out that the hawks won the cup the last time there was an olympic break but the olympics were in canada, this time they are half a world away in russia)

-presumably less depth without Bolland, Stalberg, Frolik, etc. meaning more reliance on top lines/pairings Have to assume we wont have a 100% success rate in replacing them with young guys

 

I could see the Hawks being towards the middle of the playoff picture most of the season and finishing somewhere in the 4-7 range before (hopefully) turning it on in the playoffs. Hope I'm wrong and the Hawks surprise me. Either way its great to talk about another season starting.

 

well they could fall a lot and still be in contention for the 1 seed. unless they suffer injuries, i'd be pretty shocked/disappointed to see them fall to a mid seed. in 2010-2011i expected it, but this time they should be go to go. i'm not getting greedy, but these next 2 seasons will probably be the best chance to win another cup. i'm still all in.

[biittner77]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, they have Khabibulin with NHL experience and they have Raanta in the pipeline. If Raanta played well enough to look like a plausible alternative that would take away some of Crawford's leverage. The Hawks also have pieces that they could trade in order to acquire a goalie.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, they have Khabibulin with NHL experience and they have Raanta in the pipeline. If Raanta played well enough to look like a plausible alternative that would take away some of Crawford's leverage. The Hawks also have pieces that they could trade in order to acquire a goalie.

Khabibulin is 40 and on a 1 year deal (said Turco/Emery type). Raanta has 0 experience in North America and is going to spend the year in Rockford. Neither of those options are going to reduce any of Corey's leverage in a years time, even if Raanta plays well in the AHL they are not going to give him the starting job. Based on the Bowman view of goalies do you really think they want to give up what would be a haul of skaters for one? Yes, they had to Crawford a contract that MAY end up overpaying him but they really didn't have an option.

[Guest]

they did have an option. they could have waited for this season to play out and know they'd still be able to get him next offseason for the same price if they still want to.

[Drew Doughty]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, right now you have Lundqvist (who will absolutely not make it to free agency), Miller, Hiller, Halak, Dubnyk, Vokoun and Elliott slated to hit free agency and there's a pretty good chance that all of them except Dubnyk actually hit the market. StL could even let both Halak and Elliott walk since they have Jake Allen coming up. At least one off that list will likely sign a contract worth about half of Crawford's. There won't be that many jobs available. If you honestly prefer Crawford to all of those guys then that's one thing. I don't know if I do, but I could see the argument for most of them except Lundqvist. I guess my problem is that I'm not sure they're allocating all that money to something that's very valuable. I don't think Crawford will be worth much more than your run of the mill .905-.910 sv% goalie over the next few years when he's supposed to actually be worth his contract. An average, run of the mill goalie fitting that description is likely a backup making under 1m. SO I guess I just don't understand why teams continue to pay so, so much for so, so little. Not just the Hawks, but everyone.

 

I think I would rather a Turco or Emery starter than Crawford. Well, maybe not Turco who was pretty much toast by the time he got to Chicago, but Emery I didn't mind. Emery was only 30 heading into the year (as opposed to Turco's 35 at the time the Hawks brought him in). He's always been pretty inconsistent but never as truly terrible as Turco when healthy. He had some actual decent stretches of hockey in his recent history. Honestly, when healthy and in North America, him and Crawford haven't been terribly different goaltenders, which would terrify me as a Blackhawks fan. A couple of Emery-esque options that could be available in 2014: Emery himself, Jason Labarbera, Anton Khudobin and Ben Scrivens.

 

On top of that we've seen good young goalies like Cory Schneider and Jonathan Bernier get moved lately. I think there are often decent guys available. There aren't enough goalie jobs available. Bernier or James Reimer will probably be available either during this season or after it depending on who wins the job in Toronto. Michal Neuvirth can probably be had from Washington. I don't buy that Bowman didn't have options. He has to think that Crawford's season is repeatable and we haven't really seen any goalie repeat his success in the past few years. Is Crawford in that elite class with Lundqvist? Because that's the only reason you should be giving him that money.

 

I just have trouble seeing why Bowman is concerned with it this time. He's won two cups while completely gambling on his goaltenders being good. It's a formula that's worked for him. He has plenty of gambles that he could make next year. However, he decided that he'd rather spend a bunch of money and lock himself into a guy that he was gambling on just a year prior. I don't see a good justification for that.

[jersey cubs fan]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, they have Khabibulin with NHL experience and they have Raanta in the pipeline. I

 

Seriously, how does anybody come up with the nobody with experience and nobody in the pipeline theory?

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, they have Khabibulin with NHL experience and they have Raanta in the pipeline. I

 

Seriously, how does anybody come up with the nobody with experience and nobody in the pipeline theory?

Because there isn't? How can you come up with there being the opposite? If they would have replaced Crawford it would have come from outside the organization as Drew points out.

[jersey cubs fan]

I could not agree more with both of these posts and agree with brinoch's theory. They have nobody with NHL experience behind Crawford and nobody in the pipeline. While I think the deal is too long and pricy they were kind of up [expletive] creek and felt they had to give him something because they didn't want him to have the leverage of having another solid year and being a UFA. That and look at the UFAs for the last couple years, you really want to end up with an Emery(coming into the year) or Turco type as the starter?

 

Well, they have Khabibulin with NHL experience and they have Raanta in the pipeline. I

 

Seriously, how does anybody come up with the nobody with experience and nobody in the pipeline theory?

Because there isn't? How can you come up with there being the opposite? If they would have replaced Crawford it would have come from outside the organization as Drew points out.

 

Because Khabibulin is the backup and Raanta is in the pipeline?

 

Crawford wasn't exactly screaming for an opportunity when he took over the role.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Because Khabibulin is the backup and Raanta is in the pipeline?

 

Crawford wasn't exactly screaming for an opportunity when he took over the role.

Yes, he was. He had appeared in over 40 games in the AHL for 5 seasons and had been called up to play in the NHL several times in a couple different seasons.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, he was. He had appeared in over 40 games in the AHL for 5 seasons and had been called up to play in the NHL several times in a couple different seasons.

 

He had 5 starts over three seasons before taking over, and he was not particularly impressive.

 

He had previously been a relatively highly touted prospects, but the shine was off.

[brinoch]

Gooney, seriously, stop. You couldn't be more wrong on the availability of a goalie in the system. Raanta might be a good prospect. Might. He needs to adjust to a smaller ice sheet -- hence moving to the AHL next year. It is a bigger adjuatment than most think, and we won't know for a while how he adjusts -- probably well, but you just don't know. Likewise, Khabi at 40 as a replacement? No. Just no. They signed Huet the last time he was here because he wasn't an elite -- or even above average -- goalie and that's saying something. He was also merely acceptable in Edmonton, and he is 40. Not a long-term solution.

 

Crawford was very highly regarded and forced his way into the conversation. He arguably performed better than Niemi in early 2010, but Niemi was out of options while Crawford still had one. At the beginning of the year, no one foresaw either of them supplanting Huet.

 

Right now, the top goalie prospects in the system are Raanta and Carruth, and Carruth is just out of junior with Portland. He needs time -- a lot of time. Raanta has been here for less than 6 months and has yet to see a single game in North America. That's the definition of a bare cupboard. Making a trade? Sure the Hawks could make a trade, but as we have all seen, they need to keep drafting well and churning out cost-controlledreplacement level NHLers to sustain success around the core. Spending prospects and picks to get that goalie is likewise out of character.

 

Is Bowman overreacting? I strongly think so. And I think this a bad deal. The numbers for Crawford and Emery over the past two years strongly correlate with the quality of the defense rather than the quality of the goalie. Frankly, I think going back to '08-'09, you see that the success/failure of Khabibulin/Huet/Niemi/Turco/Crawford/Emery is based on the play of the defense. I believe Crawford is above average, ranking in the 10-15 range NHL-wide, but otherwise not worth $6m per year for 6 years in a salary cap world.

[biittner77]

Sure the Hawks could make a trade, but as we have all seen, they need to keep drafting well and churning out cost-controlledreplacement level NHLers to sustain success around the core. Spending prospects and picks to get that goalie is likewise out of character.

 

Spending that kind of money on a goalie is also out of character. If they traded for a goalie that cost say $3 million, that would give them $3 million to bring in whatever replacement level players they might need.

[jersey cubs fan]

Gooney, seriously, stop. You couldn't be more wrong on the availability of a goalie in the system.

 

They also have Crawford, and would still have Crawford with or without this contract.