Villanueva to the Bullpen; Garza to Start Tuesday

[Sammy Sofa]

Somebody explain to me why it's a good idea to extend Wood now. Yeah, he's been really good so far this season, but a lot of it appears to be luck (83% LOB rate! .186 BABIP! .68 HR/9 and a 4.46 xFIP).

 

If the argument is that an extension would likely be cheaper than going year by year with him, then fine. But that seems dubious considering he's having far and away his best ML season ever (SSS) and his traditional stats (ERA and W/L) are incredible and solid, respectively. If it's just purely a financial thing, then I'll trust the board's judgement, but if it's a lock him up because he's a great asset thing, I think we're jumping the gun more than a little.

 

Agreed.

[dew1679666265]

Well, I'd like to see him extended, but that ship has probably sailed, since the reason you give someone an extension pre-arb is to get a nice discount. I think he'll have 4 arb years and with them starting next year, you'd be negotiating at a slight point of weakness. Not only is he pitching great, he's getting a nice raise next year under any circumstance. No, I don't see his current rate as being sustainable, but I do think its possible he could turn into something better than a back end type.

 

If you buy out his arb years, you almost always try to get a FA year or two as well, so giving him a 5 or 6 year deal, unless its cheap, doesn't make a lot of sense. And I doubt he'd do it when he's pitching like this anyway.

 

I was actually thinking if he can keep up this pace until midseason, he'd be a perfect option to trade. With as much team control as he has left and as well as he's pitching (in traditional numbers), we could turn one limited upside arm into 2-3 pretty good (or maybe very good considering we have Theo) arms.

 

I'm pretty skeptical given his incredible luck so far that he's any more than a decent back of the rotation arm (basically my opinion hasn't changed of him since the offseason) so I don't think dealing him would hurt the ML roster that much and, in the right deal, it would help bolster the minor leagues some.

 

Basically it's a sell-high move with the added bonus that he has team control left.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, I'd like to see him extended, but that ship has probably sailed, since the reason you give someone an extension pre-arb is to get a nice discount. I think he'll have 4 arb years and with them starting next year, you'd be negotiating at a slight point of weakness. Not only is he pitching great, he's getting a nice raise next year under any circumstance. No, I don't see his current rate as being sustainable, but I do think its possible he could turn into something better than a back end type.

 

If you buy out his arb years, you almost always try to get a FA year or two as well, so giving him a 5 or 6 year deal, unless its cheap, doesn't make a lot of sense. And I doubt he'd do it when he's pitching like this anyway.

 

I was actually thinking if he can keep up this pace until midseason, he'd be a perfect option to trade. With as much team control as he has left and as well as he's pitching (in traditional numbers), we could turn one limited upside arm into 2-3 pretty good (or maybe very good considering we have Theo) arms.

 

I'm pretty skeptical given his incredible luck so far that he's any more than a decent back of the rotation arm (basically my opinion hasn't changed of him since the offseason) so I don't think dealing him would hurt the ML roster that much and, in the right deal, it would help bolster the minor leagues some.

 

Well, you need to actually have a ML rotation. Sure, listen to offers and you get one that's too good to miss you should take it, but a decent back of the rotation of the arm can be too valuable to trade, especially when your pitching options are as slim as the Cubs' are right now.

[davell]

Even though I know its wrong, I like having at least one lefty in the rotation. I'm sure they'd listen on him, but I can't imagine a team thinking this is the real him and overwhelming us enough to trade him. Of course, there are some stupid GMs out there, so maybe I'm wrong. But, I'd want a nice haul to move him. A top 100 SP prospect thats ready to pitch in the majors in 2014, another guy that has legit top 100 potential that is a ways away and one other top 15ish type from a normal system. Too much? Not enough? From our own team, it'd be like getting a healthy Vizcaino, Candelario, and Amaya or something like that. Hell, after looking at it though, I may want slightly more actually, but maybe I'm overvaluing Wood.

[dew1679666265]

Well, you need to actually have a ML rotation. Sure, listen to offers and you get one that's too good to miss you should take it, but a decent back of the rotation of the arm can be too valuable to trade, especially when your pitching options are as slim as the Cubs' are right now.

 

Yeah, I tried to emphasize in the post that I wouldn't give him up for just anything, but if he keeps up his current pace until the deadline, he seems like the exact type of player a team would overpay severely for.

[dew1679666265]

Even though I know its wrong, I like having at least one lefty in the rotation. I'm sure they'd listen on him, but I can't imagine a team thinking this is the real him and overwhelming us enough to trade him. Of course, there are some stupid GMs out there, so maybe I'm wrong. But, I'd want a nice haul to move him. A top 100 SP prospect thats ready to pitch in the majors in 2014, another guy that has legit top 100 potential that is a ways away and one other top 15ish type from a normal system. Too much? Not enough? From our own team, it'd be like getting a healthy Vizcaino, Candelario, and Amaya or something like that. Hell, after looking at it though, I may want slightly more actually, but maybe I'm overvaluing Wood.

 

It's the dumb GMs who get excited over ERA and W/L and don't pay attention to peripherals that I'd ideally be targeting. My thinking is the coupling of them not looking deeply enough at his stats and him being still fairly young with team control left (plus if they're in the playoff race and desperate, that's a pretty big plus) would make them easy prey for the Theo regime.

 

I'm thinking your proposed package might be a bit on the high end, but I wouldn't take much less. I'd be willing to settle for guys who project later than the start of 2014, but the return would have to be that much better then.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think you extend Wood, but just by virtue of team control you are kind of penciling him in as a starter for the next few years.

[davell]

Looking at who may wind up as sellers, or our competition, this is what I come up with.

 

Toronto-But after going "all-in" I'm not sure how much they'd sell off, they may prefer to wait and see what happens if they were healthy, plus they'd be selling very low on some guys they just paid a premium for.

 

White Sox- After Peavy, I'm not sure what they have that anyone would want.

 

Twins- Maybe Willingham and Morneau. Correia has pitched decent enough to get a dumb GM to give up something maybe.

 

Angels- Again, I just can't see them trying to sell though, even if they need to.

 

Mariners- If they sell, Iwakuma seems like the only guy they'd move.

 

Astros- Norris, maybe Altuve and Harrell? God, they suck.

 

Mets- Ike Davis possibly? They really don't have much that makes sense to sell off.

 

Marlins- Nolasco, maybe Stanton? Although my guess is they wait on him til the offseason.

 

Brewers- Aramis, Weeks, Hart

 

Dodgers- Honestly see them making a run once they're healthy, but they could deal Ethier, I guess.

 

Pads- Maybe Headley and Quentin. Some bullpen possibly?

 

I see everyone else either standing pat or trying to buy.

[dew1679666265]

Could Wood theoretically be a key piece in a Headley deal? I doubt they'd value him highly enough, but if we could make some sort of deal around Wood/Barney (emphasizing team control to a cash-strapped club), that'd have to be pretty tempting.

 

I'm probably reaching, though.

[KaiserCesar]

So back to the current year's rotation. With the two off-days coming up and Garza making 1 or 2 more rehab starts, you can slide him back into the rotation and replace anyone pretty easily. My guess would be Villanueva to the pen for the already hashed out reasons. So, could Garza potentially come back next Tuesday or Wednesday? You could also have Garza make another rehab start on Tuesday and make his return on Sunday, effectively going through a 6-man rotation once.

[Guest]

Somebody explain to me why it's a good idea to extend Wood now. Yeah, he's been really good so far this season, but a lot of it appears to be luck (83% LOB rate! .186 BABIP! .68 HR/9 and a 4.46 xFIP).

 

If the argument is that an extension would likely be cheaper than going year by year with him, then fine. But that seems dubious considering he's having far and away his best ML season ever (SSS) and his traditional stats (ERA and W/L) are incredible and solid, respectively. If it's just purely a financial thing, then I'll trust the board's judgement, but if it's a lock him up because he's a great asset thing, I think we're jumping the gun more than a little.

 

Fan Graphs on Wood: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/travis-woods-improbable-run/

[Cubswin11]

Looking at who may wind up as sellers, or our competition, this is what I come up with.

 

Toronto-But after going "all-in" I'm not sure how much they'd sell off, they may prefer to wait and see what happens if they were healthy, plus they'd be selling very low on some guys they just paid a premium for.

Baez, Vogelbach, Candelario, Wood, and Vizcaino for Bautista, Morrow, Buehrle, Janssen, Nolin and take on all the contracts. If we think we are in contention...

 

And if I may be allowed to throw stupid trades out

[Guest]

If you extend Wood, I don't think it's because you think he's established a new norm as a sub-3 ERA guy, and I doubt Wood or his agent would be so bold as to demand to be paid as such. You'd extend him because the start to this season confirms what we were hoping, that last year was more aberration than indicative of Wood's true abilities.

 

Even with last year, Wood now has just over 2 full seasons of starts and IP and has pitched at a 2-2.5 win clip. Take his age and the weight that last year had into account and it's not unreasonable to forecast him as a 2.5-3 win pitcher for several seasons. That's valuable and why you'd consider extending him.

 

That said, Wood's ceiling is not so high that there's a lot of risk to not extending him in terms of locking in salary. And since he's only arbitration eligible for the first time after this season you probably don't want to guarantee him a 4+ year deal just to try to buy out 1 or 2 years of free agency. So ultimately I don't think there's much reason to extend Wood, even though I'm very happy with how he's turning out. He should be a great team controlled asset to fit in the 3-4-5 area of the rotation for several years, or an asset of some significance in trading for a very good player.

 

PS- last year and this year: Sean Marshall = 1.9 fWAR; Wood+Sappelt = 1.9 fWAR

[Guest]

If Arizona is still up for dumb trades, deal them Wood for Bradley.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Looking at who may wind up as sellers, or our competition, this is what I come up with.

 

Toronto-But after going "all-in" I'm not sure how much they'd sell off, they may prefer to wait and see what happens if they were healthy, plus they'd be selling very low on some guys they just paid a premium for.

 

White Sox- After Peavy, I'm not sure what they have that anyone would want.

 

Twins- Maybe Willingham and Morneau. Correia has pitched decent enough to get a dumb GM to give up something maybe.

 

Angels- Again, I just can't see them trying to sell though, even if they need to.

 

Mariners- If they sell, Iwakuma seems like the only guy they'd move.

 

Astros- Norris, maybe Altuve and Harrell? God, they suck.

 

Mets- Ike Davis possibly? They really don't have much that makes sense to sell off.

 

Marlins- Nolasco, maybe Stanton? Although my guess is they wait on him til the offseason.

 

Brewers- Aramis, Weeks, Hart

 

Dodgers- Honestly see them making a run once they're healthy, but they could deal Ethier, I guess.

 

Pads- Maybe Headley and Quentin. Some bullpen possibly?

 

I see everyone else either standing pat or trying to buy.

 

The White Sox have Alex Rios as well who's been great since last season. They could also move Konerko, which would send White Sox fans to the ledges in droves. Jesse Crain would be a nice option for contenders too.

 

As for Peavy, his contract coupled with health history would make him difficult to move. A different market from what we have to offer. One of the big market teams could bite, as long as they're willing to give up a ton of prospects and/or cash. A lot of teams looking to bolster their rotation would likely prefer a minor commitment like Garza and decide if the want to extend him when the time comes.

[dew1679666265]

If you extend Wood, I don't think it's because you think he's established a new norm as a sub-3 ERA guy, and I doubt Wood or his agent would be so bold as to demand to be paid as such. You'd extend him because the start to this season confirms what we were hoping, that last year was more aberration than indicative of Wood's true abilities.

 

Even with last year, Wood now has just over 2 full seasons of starts and IP and has pitched at a 2-2.5 win clip. Take his age and the weight that last year had into account and it's not unreasonable to forecast him as a 2.5-3 win pitcher for several seasons. That's valuable and why you'd consider extending him.

 

That said, Wood's ceiling is not so high that there's a lot of risk to not extending him in terms of locking in salary. And since he's only arbitration eligible for the first time after this season you probably don't want to guarantee him a 4+ year deal just to try to buy out 1 or 2 years of free agency. So ultimately I don't think there's much reason to extend Wood, even though I'm very happy with how he's turning out. He should be a great team controlled asset to fit in the 3-4-5 area of the rotation for several years, or an asset of some significance in trading for a very good player.

 

PS- last year and this year: Sean Marshall = 1.9 fWAR; Wood+Sappelt = 1.9 fWAR

 

This is similar to how I feel. I didn't mean to degrade Wood in my post, it simply seemed like people were being a little overly anxious to give Wood an extension. I have no problem keeping Wood for the next few years, I just don't see the point in extending a guy who's pitching the best of his career and hasn't been a consistently good starter in the majors.

[dew1679666265]

Somebody explain to me why it's a good idea to extend Wood now. Yeah, he's been really good so far this season, but a lot of it appears to be luck (83% LOB rate! .186 BABIP! .68 HR/9 and a 4.46 xFIP).

 

If the argument is that an extension would likely be cheaper than going year by year with him, then fine. But that seems dubious considering he's having far and away his best ML season ever (SSS) and his traditional stats (ERA and W/L) are incredible and solid, respectively. If it's just purely a financial thing, then I'll trust the board's judgement, but if it's a lock him up because he's a great asset thing, I think we're jumping the gun more than a little.

 

Fan Graphs on Wood: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/travis-woods-improbable-run/

 

Thanks. That's a good read.

[Guest]

Villanueva to the pen. He seemed like the most likely candidate.

[Post Count Padder]

Villanueva to the pen. He seemed like the most likely candidate.

Yeah, that's who I would've guessed. He hasnt pitched well his last couple of outings. Sealed his fate. Couldn't bump Wood or Feldman.

 

Also, what's going on with Scott Baker? I haven't heard any news recently.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So who gets the boot then?

 

If Bowden has any options left, he'd be the obvious choice.

Rodon hasn't done himself any favors, but the Rule 5 status will likely keep him around. Then again, we could always make a deal to keep him.

Camp or Marmol could be trade candidates. Detroit for one is actively pursuing pen help.

[Tryptamine]

So who gets the boot then?

 

If Bowden has any options left, he'd be the obvious choice.

Rodon hasn't done himself any favors, but the Rule 5 status will likely keep him around. Then again, we could always make a deal to keep him.

Camp or Marmol could be trade candidates. Detroit for one is actively pursuing pen help.

 

The Braves have already lost Venters to TJS and O'Flaherty just tore his UCL which means he's likely going to get TJS as well. They're certainly going to be looking for a lot of help.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Bowden has been solid. 3.26 FIP.

 

Get rid of Marmol or Camp.

[Post Count Padder]

We have Shawn Camp sucking nearly every time he trots out there, but Bowden is the one DFA'd to make room for Garza. I don't get it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Camp should be the obvious choice. At least with Marmol, he has a shot at building trade value. Camp's just a pumpkin that had a bit of magic left, but has long since been drained. The move certainly conflicts with Epstein's MO.

[Gilby]

It's not like Bowden is much better than Camp, if he is at all. Bowden has a 5.00 xFIP and is striking out less than 4 batters per 9 innings. Neither are very good pitchers anymore. I suppose you could argue Bowden has more of a future though, as uninteresting as it may be.