Castro

[Sammy Sofa]

Is he going to improve on his age 23 season or improve on his age 21 season? He's a guy that gets value from making a lot of contact (been worse at this every season) and being able to pass at the league's toughest position (he's been passable at this one year out of four.)

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

This is basically my feeling on him right now, too. It's not like I'm looking at it like an either/or "he sucks or he's really good" standpoint; there's a lot of room in there as to where he could end up, and a lot of it is a clear disappointment given the expectations both from when he first broke out and, especially, given what the team kinda needs him to be.

[Gilby]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

OK, now do it for players who got 500 PA at age 20 then posted a .280 wOBA at age 23. If that's too specific, you can goose the parameters a bit.

 

It's almost as if that's an outlier that may have little predictive power!

 

But to cut through this terrible attempt to back into logic and get to the point, Castro is the very rare player who has the talent to produce from an incredibly young age, and therefore nonsense about "lots of players never improve after 22 because they aren't good enough!" doesn't apply, as the chart above indicates.

 

That said, last season still happened, and it's not impossible that Castro is actually terrible or not good or whatever qualifier you want. That doesn't mean that that argument shouldn't face an incredible amount of skepticism since it flies in the face of thousands of MLB plate appearances from Castro, the standard of how players mature with age, and every comp of Castro's that we can find that has shown what he has shown. Believe whatever you want, I'll be the crazy one that thinks that Castro is still likely to improve after age 23.

 

Is he going to improve on his age 23 season or improve on his age 21 season? He's a guy that gets value from making a lot of contact (been worse at this every season) and being able to pass at the league's toughest position (he's been passable at this one year out of four.)

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

I'd say he's been passable at SS more than 1 year. I think you're getting too caught up in exact UZR numbers if you're saying he wasn't passable when he was -2 to -3. Derek Jeter isn't passable at SS.

[imb]

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

What's the ratio of good to bad history?

 

He has two strengths, getting base hits and not looking lost some of the times on defense at a premium position. The problem is that for all the "HE'S GOING TO IMPROVE, HE'S 23" his walk rate has never fluctuated since he debuted and his batting average has never gotten better since he debuted.

 

He basically has "gotten better" at two things since he debuted -- he hit for more power twice, before falling off completely this year, and he's only been a passable defender once.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd say he's been passable at SS more than 1 year. I think you're getting too caught up in exact UZR numbers if you're saying he wasn't passable when he was -2 to -3. Derek Jeter isn't passable at SS.

 

Passingly related, but Fangraphs recently changed the way they report defense and I love it. Basically, they took out the defensive adjustment on offense and started comparing defenders across the entire player pool instead of just to their own division. So, for SS's for example, their offense now looks a lot worse but even the worst defensive SS looks pretty good defensively.

 

So now Castro gets a +4 for 2013 on defense, even though that's only 17th among 21 shortstops.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

What's the ratio of good to bad history?

 

He has two strengths, getting base hits and not looking lost some of the times on defense at a premium position. The problem is that for all the "HE'S GOING TO IMPROVE, HE'S 23" his walk rate has never fluctuated since he debuted and his batting average has never gotten better since he debuted.

 

He basically has "gotten better" at two things since he debuted -- he hit for more power twice, before falling off completely this year, and he's only been a passable defender once.

 

Well that ignored my question entirely

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well that ignored my question entirely

 

Because that's impossible to answer without defining the population of comparable players, which could range anywhere from "there's nobody just like him, he's a special unique snowflake" to "every professional baseball player in history."

[SouthSideRyan]

Well that ignored my question entirely

 

Because that's impossible to answer without defining the population of comparable players, which could range anywhere from "there's nobody just like him, he's a special unique snowflake" to "every professional baseball player in history."

 

Players with > 2.0 WAR by the age of 21.

 

ETA: I'm not even tailoring it specifically to Castro who put up 2 fWAR at the age of 20 in 3/4 of a season

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well that ignored my question entirely

 

Because that's impossible to answer without defining the population of comparable players, which could range anywhere from "there's nobody just like him, he's a special unique snowflake" to "every professional baseball player in history."

 

Players with > 2.0 WAR by the age of 21.

 

ETA: I'm not even tailoring it specifically to Castro who put up 2 fWAR at the age of 20 in 3/4 of a season

 

That's an odd choice. Why would you intentionally cut out two full years of relevant information?

[imb]

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

What's the ratio of good to bad history?

 

He has two strengths, getting base hits and not looking lost some of the times on defense at a premium position. The problem is that for all the "HE'S GOING TO IMPROVE, HE'S 23" his walk rate has never fluctuated since he debuted and his batting average has never gotten better since he debuted.

 

He basically has "gotten better" at two things since he debuted -- he hit for more power twice, before falling off completely this year, and he's only been a passable defender once.

 

Well that ignored my question entirely

 

I figured it was a rhetorical question since we can all see he had two good/great years, one good year and one atrocious one. Since he's trending down and the atrocious year was more recent, I'm not sure what the point is of the question in the first place.

[jersey cubs fan]

Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro had $3.6 million seized from his bank accounts Wednesday for refusing to pay 3 percent of his contract to a baseball school in the Dominican Republic, according to published reports.

 

Castro’s father, Diogenis Castros, reportedly signed the agreement with the school Mi Futuro Biliguer (My Future Big Leaguer) when Starlin was 15, agreeing to pay the school during his active career in the majors.

 

The seizure was made at various banks, reports said.

 

Castro signed a seven-year, $60 million contract extension with the Cubs in 2012. He paid part of his original $45,000 signing bonus to the school, a source said, but did not expect the payments to continue throughout his career.

 

Castro’s coach at the school, Manuel Nunez, was planning to sue Castro for “breach of trust and securities distraction,” according to a report, trying to force Castro to give him 3 percent of his contract.

 

A source said Castro’s attorney plans to file a countersuit against Nunez and claims the contract is baseless, saying the father could not sign away his son’s future earnings.

[BeerHere]

Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro had $3.6 million seized from his bank accounts Wednesday for refusing to pay 3 percent of his contract to a baseball school in the Dominican Republic, according to published reports.

 

Castro’s father, Diogenis Castros, reportedly signed the agreement with the school Mi Futuro Biliguer (My Future Big Leaguer) when Starlin was 15, agreeing to pay the school during his active career in the majors.

 

The seizure was made at various banks, reports said.

 

Castro signed a seven-year, $60 million contract extension with the Cubs in 2012. He paid part of his original $45,000 signing bonus to the school, a source said, but did not expect the payments to continue throughout his career.

 

Castro’s coach at the school, Manuel Nunez, was planning to sue Castro for “breach of trust and securities distraction,” according to a report, trying to force Castro to give him 3 percent of his contract.

 

A source said Castro’s attorney plans to file a countersuit against Nunez and claims the contract is baseless, saying the father could not sign away his son’s future earnings.

 

At 15 his father would be his legal guardian, but I question how legal it is to sign away someone else's future earnings.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That's a helluva scam to get in on.

[mul21]

Yeah, I would think that agreement might be valid until he hit 18, but at that point he'd be in control of his own finances and the agreement would be null and void. I'm no lawyer, but that would be the common sense solution.

[imb]

Watch Pelotero, these assholes are shady as hell

[Guest]

Back and better than ever.

[NOLA]

Back and better than ever.

Yep. SSS and all, but I am doing my best not to get giddy about him and to a lesser degree Rizzo.

[jumbo]

Back and better than ever.

Yep. SSS and all, but I am doing my best not to get giddy about him and to a lesser degree Rizzo.

 

Went to check out his fangraphs page. It looks like he's swinging more freely again (probably good) but he's also swinging and missing more freely (probably bad). His biggest drop in contact % is O-contact %, which maybe means he'll avoid some of the weaker contact that we saw from him last year.

 

Also, SSS, 11 games, etc.

[NewUserName]

I heard several of the white, play baseball the right way members of the media this week finding ways to nitpick his game so far this year. Can't just enjoy the fact he is off to a good start and may be bouncing back after a terrible year.

[NOLA]

I heard several of the white, play baseball the right way members of the media this week finding ways to nitpick his game so far this year. Can't just enjoy the fact he is off to a good start and may be bouncing back after a terrible year.

No, they can't.

[neely crenshaw]

At his best he was on base 250 times in 158 games. I think we can use that.

He had OB% OF over .340, which we could certainly use.

I said this earlier I blame Sveum for a lot of this. He never hit Castro in the spot he had his best stats, lead-off. He also batted him toward the bottom of the lineup more than any other manager, with no one to protect him. Every pitcher that faced him new there was no one behind him, why give him anything? He certainly seemed to chase more pitches than I ever remember before.

 

I really expect his offense to bounce back to near his norms. His defense will probably only determine who is the shortstop and who is moved. I still think they way he gets a drop on pop ups, he could be a great center fielder if moved.

 

I just look at our stats, see castro and rizzo leading everything, and think it's a good thing!

[Sammy Sofa]

He's still not hitting leadoff, so there goes that little morsel.

[Sammy Sofa]

Guys...

[Sammy Sofa]

It's cool; I fixed him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's basically back to being the same guy he was the first three years, but with a .300 BABIP instead of .340. I can live with that. It comes out to an average starter, maybe a tick above.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

It took him until the end of June to hit his fourth homer last season. That's kind of cool, at least.