Castro

[Tracer Bullet]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

1) I've specifically talked about growth on offense for Castro. Fregosi got a lot of that value from defense.

 

2) Fregosi showed growth in his offensive game over his first three years in the league, which kind of illustrates what I'm talking about.

 

He did? He had 2 great fielding seasons and they were, not surprisingly, his peak WAR seasons. He also had the confusing run of seasons (fielding runs above - or below - average):

 

1968: -7

1969: -1

1970: 14 (2nd best ever for him)

1971: -1

1972: -11

1973: -13 (worst ever)

 

So, yeah. When he hit his peak WAR, he had two great defensive seasons. When he had his worst WAR, he had his worst defensive seasons.

 

But wOBA from 25-28? .337, .310, .340, .362. Injuries, including a broken thumb, started taking their toll and he was never a regular again after turning 30. I think it's difficult to justify your statement about his defense, which suggests that he wasn't a true 4-5 win player (at least until falling victim to injuries when he turned 30).

[sneakypower]

"Happy with his progression" and "not worried about his development" are not the same things. Of course I'd like to see more improvement, especially given his success in previous seasons. But again, Castro's development is not a straight line from good to great. I'm not going to radically change my thoughts on him based on such a small sample.

 

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

and if you want to include his start to the season, you still get a .294/.339/.440 line

 

Symborski ran his ZiPS before last season:

 

Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR

2012 301/343/432 3.5

2013 308/352/464 4.4

2014 310/356/475 4.8

2015 311/359/479 5.0

2016 310/359/487 5.2

2017 309/360/483 5.1

2018 304/357/479 4.8

2019 304/357/479 4.7

2020 302/354/471 4.3

2021 300/351/466 3.9

 

that 2012 line was almost right on the dot; his sluggish start makes it a little more of an uphill battle to keep up with his path for this year, but it's not a huge unlikelihood he'll do it either

 

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

8 years averaging 5.6 bWAR, fwiw

[Guest]

"Happy with his progression" and "not worried about his development" are not the same things. Of course I'd like to see more improvement, especially given his success in previous seasons. But again, Castro's development is not a straight line from good to great. I'm not going to radically change my thoughts on him based on such a small sample.

Those two things are discussing the same topic, they're simply different points of view. How much longer are you willing to see Castro's growth stagnate before becoming worried about his development? I recognize things don't happen in a straight line. But many of the trends are actually going in the wrong direction with Starlin.

 

I'm not trying to be smug or anything here, but I'm honestly surprised that doesn't worry you in the slightest.

 

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

What is the small sample you're referring to?

 

I'm aware of his numbers to end the year and even referred to his strong finish in the OP. However, combine that performance with his numbers to start this year (the entire timeframe since the last discussion) and they're significantly more mediocre.

[jersey cubs fan]

You've mentioned the environment a couple of times now. I didn't know you were that big on player production being influenced by things like leadership, "winning" environments, etc.

 

I'm not that big on it. But I do think there is potential for negative ramifications when you spend so much time on the extreme losing end of the spectrum.

[Guest]

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

What is the small sample you're referring to?

 

I'm aware of his numbers to end the year and even referred to his strong finish in the OP. However, combine that performance with his numbers to start this year (the entire timeframe since the last discussion) and they're significantly more mediocre.

 

The point here is that you're holding up the time since mid August as a significant data point for Castro and his (lack of) progression. The fact is that after that previous discussion, he was awesome for the rest of the season, and even combined with his poor 2013 to date that slash line is better than any full season he's had thus far, making it even tougher for me to get worked up about his progress.

[Guest]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

 

Weren't most of the great ones around him on that list much more sure-fire (and really good) long term SSs?

I'm not sure what you're really asking here. It's not like Starlin was considered a sure-fire guy until he hit .400 in the southern league at age 20 for a month and a half.

 

I'm saying that those players he's being compared to (the great ones, at least) were, as far as I remember, awesome defensive players. Castro isn't that and really may have to end up moving off the position (and at the very least, doesn't offer great value there from a defensive standpoint).

It's really hard to evaluate current defensive numbers with confidence. I really don't have much faith in defensive value numbers for guys like Fregosi.

[Guest]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

1) I've specifically talked about growth on offense for Castro. Fregosi got a lot of that value from defense.

 

2) Fregosi showed growth in his offensive game over his first three years in the league, which kind of illustrates what I'm talking about.

 

He did? He had 2 great fielding seasons and they were, not surprisingly, his peak WAR seasons. He also had the confusing run of seasons (fielding runs above - or below - average):

 

1968: -7

1969: -1

1970: 14 (2nd best ever for him)

1971: -1

1972: -11

1973: -13 (worst ever)

 

So, yeah. When he hit his peak WAR, he had two great defensive seasons. When he had his worst WAR, he had his worst defensive seasons.

 

But wOBA from 25-28? .337, .310, .340, .362. Injuries, including a broken thumb, started taking their toll and he was never a regular again after turning 30. I think it's difficult to justify your statement about his defense, which suggests that he wasn't a true 4-5 win player (at least until falling victim to injuries when he turned 30).

Well, specifically I was looking at TT pointing out he peaked at a 7 war season, which was driven quite largely by his defensive performance that year.

[Tracer Bullet]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

 

Weren't most of the great ones around him on that list much more sure-fire (and really good) long term SSs?

I'm not sure what you're really asking here. It's not like Starlin was considered a sure-fire guy until he hit .400 in the southern league at age 20 for a month and a half.

 

I'm saying that those players he's being compared to (the great ones, at least) were, as far as I remember, awesome defensive players. Castro isn't that and really may have to end up moving off the position (and at the very least, doesn't offer great value there from a defensive standpoint).

 

Castro isn't so bad he would have to be moved from SS barring injury or something. That isn't to say someone better may come along and end up moving him.

[Guest]

"Happy with his progression" and "not worried about his development" are not the same things. Of course I'd like to see more improvement, especially given his success in previous seasons. But again, Castro's development is not a straight line from good to great. I'm not going to radically change my thoughts on him based on such a small sample.

 

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

and if you want to include his start to the season, you still get a .294/.339/.440 line

 

Symborski ran his ZiPS before last season:

 

Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR

2012 301/343/432 3.5

2013 308/352/464 4.4

2014 310/356/475 4.8

2015 311/359/479 5.0

2016 310/359/487 5.2

2017 309/360/483 5.1

2018 304/357/479 4.8

2019 304/357/479 4.7

2020 302/354/471 4.3

2021 300/351/466 3.9

 

that 2012 line was almost right on the dot; his sluggish start makes it a little more of an uphill battle to keep up with his path for this year, but it's not a huge unlikelihood he'll do it either

 

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

8 years averaging 5.6 bWAR, fwiw

Out of curiosity, what were the ZiPS projections prior to this season?

[Tracer Bullet]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

1) I've specifically talked about growth on offense for Castro. Fregosi got a lot of that value from defense.

 

2) Fregosi showed growth in his offensive game over his first three years in the league, which kind of illustrates what I'm talking about.

 

He did? He had 2 great fielding seasons and they were, not surprisingly, his peak WAR seasons. He also had the confusing run of seasons (fielding runs above - or below - average):

 

1968: -7

1969: -1

1970: 14 (2nd best ever for him)

1971: -1

1972: -11

1973: -13 (worst ever)

 

So, yeah. When he hit his peak WAR, he had two great defensive seasons. When he had his worst WAR, he had his worst defensive seasons.

 

But wOBA from 25-28? .337, .310, .340, .362. Injuries, including a broken thumb, started taking their toll and he was never a regular again after turning 30. I think it's difficult to justify your statement about his defense, which suggests that he wasn't a true 4-5 win player (at least until falling victim to injuries when he turned 30).

Well, specifically I was looking at TT pointing out he peaked at a 7 war season, which was driven quite largely by his defensive performance that year.

 

And a .368 wOBA. So, well, some of that value came from the bat too.

[Guest]

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

What is the small sample you're referring to?

 

I'm aware of his numbers to end the year and even referred to his strong finish in the OP. However, combine that performance with his numbers to start this year (the entire timeframe since the last discussion) and they're significantly more mediocre.

 

The point here is that you're holding up the time since mid August as a significant data point for Castro and his (lack of) progression. The fact is that after that previous discussion, he was awesome for the rest of the season, and even combined with his poor 2013 to date that slash line is better than any full season he's had thus far, making it even tougher for me to get worked up about his progress.

.339/.440 is only a smidge better than 2011's .341/.432, which is kind of the point when looking for progression.

[Guest]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

1) I've specifically talked about growth on offense for Castro. Fregosi got a lot of that value from defense.

 

2) Fregosi showed growth in his offensive game over his first three years in the league, which kind of illustrates what I'm talking about.

 

He did? He had 2 great fielding seasons and they were, not surprisingly, his peak WAR seasons. He also had the confusing run of seasons (fielding runs above - or below - average):

 

1968: -7

1969: -1

1970: 14 (2nd best ever for him)

1971: -1

1972: -11

1973: -13 (worst ever)

 

So, yeah. When he hit his peak WAR, he had two great defensive seasons. When he had his worst WAR, he had his worst defensive seasons.

 

But wOBA from 25-28? .337, .310, .340, .362. Injuries, including a broken thumb, started taking their toll and he was never a regular again after turning 30. I think it's difficult to justify your statement about his defense, which suggests that he wasn't a true 4-5 win player (at least until falling victim to injuries when he turned 30).

Well, specifically I was looking at TT pointing out he peaked at a 7 war season, which was driven quite largely by his defensive performance that year.

 

And a .368 wOBA. So, well, some of that value came from the bat too.

And showed great growth from his partial seasons and first full season. Which, again, is my point.

[Guest]

 

I'm saying that those players he's being compared to (the great ones, at least) were, as far as I remember, awesome defensive players. Castro isn't that and really may have to end up moving off the position (and at the very least, doesn't offer great value there from a defensive standpoint).

 

Castro isn't so bad he would have to be moved from SS barring injury or something. That isn't to say someone better may come along and end up moving him.

 

It's really hard to evaluate current defensive numbers with confidence. I really don't have much faith in defensive value numbers for guys like Fregosi.

 

What I'm saying is that those players he is being compared to who ended up having amazing careers (like ARod, Ripken, and Trammel), were really good fielders and, as such, their long term viability at the position wasn't very much in question. Castro's is. If he has to move off of SS (which is much more likely than it would've been for those guys), his offensive production wouldn't seem to be nearly as valuable.

 

Just wondering what he looks like if you compare him to guys who played other positions further down the spectrum (I'm sure it's still a pretty solid list, given the fact that there has to be some selection bias when a player is even good enough to be in the Majors at those ages).

[Tracer Bullet]

 

I'm saying that those players he's being compared to (the great ones, at least) were, as far as I remember, awesome defensive players. Castro isn't that and really may have to end up moving off the position (and at the very least, doesn't offer great value there from a defensive standpoint).

 

Castro isn't so bad he would have to be moved from SS barring injury or something. That isn't to say someone better may come along and end up moving him.

 

It's really hard to evaluate current defensive numbers with confidence. I really don't have much faith in defensive value numbers for guys like Fregosi.

 

What I'm saying is that those players he is being compared to who ended up having amazing careers (like ARod, Ripken, and Trammel), were really good fielders and, as such, their long term viability at the position wasn't very much in question. Castro's is. If he has to move off of SS (which is much more likely than it would've been for those guys), his offensive production wouldn't seem to be nearly as valuable.

 

Just wondering what he looks like if you compare him to guys who played other positions further down the spectrum (I'm sure it's still a pretty solid list, given the fact that there has to be some selection bias when a player is even good enough to be in the Majors at those ages).

 

And nonetheless ARod moved to 3B. I get your question, but if the Cubs or another team move Castro off SS and that harms his value, it's not likely going to be b/c he's a butcher at SS that he forced their hand. So I don't see why it isn't fair to compare him at the position he currently plays and plays at least adequately.

[neely crenshaw]

The high end of the zips progression is basically 2011, with a little more pop (.50 points more ops). Obviously that would be a nice player, especially if his defense rounds out but I have seen too many projections of him being that .320-25 home run "special" player.

If we had a brand new 22 year old SS that came up and posted Castro's last year stats, we would all be very pleased, but we are expecting/hoping/needing Castro (and Rizzo for that matter) to be superstars and then some...

 

I'd also have to say that those zips projections are no where near what most posters had in mind for Castro.

[sneakypower]

per UZR, only Alexei Ramirez, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan have saved more runs with their range (amongst SS) than Castro has since the start of his career; his problem has always been errors, which are frankly to be expected for a SS his age, but have improved each year in the league

 

i can't really see a legitimate reason he'll need to move off short unless injuries become a factor

Edited May 6, 2013 by sneakypower

[Tracer Bullet]

And showed great growth from his partial seasons and first full season. Which, again, is my point.

 

So Fregosi is a good comparison or isn't a good comparison? He didn't get most of his value from his defense, which was your immediate point that I was responding to.

 

On your larger point, he was a great offensive shortstop through his 20s, but his progression wasn't linear. After that age-23 season in which he showed progress, he regressed the two years before having returning to +5 oWAR for the next four year (we'll ignore defensive metrics). So that would support those concluding that there's no reason to freak out about Castro's progression to date.

[UK1679666180]

So...

 

I took a lot of heat last August for saying that I was concerned about Castro's growth as an offensive player. Sure enough, his production did increase the remaining portion of last year. We're only 130 PA into this season, but he's doing the same darned thing he did to begin last year - walk in around 2-3% of his PA.

 

We're certainly still early in the season. But with Castro currently sitting at an OPS under .700, I can confidently state that I'm not excited about his start to the year.

 

I believe I had sneaky, TT, and n&g amongst others telling me that reducing the projection for Starlin based on last year (to that point) was silly. Everyone still feel that way?

 

His approach hasn't progressed and has actually regressed since '10, so I think there is valid reasoning to be concerned.

 

His ratio of swinging pitches outside of the zone has gone from 43.5% to 50.7, his contact ratio went from 86% in '11 to 81% in '12.

 

He's still young but he has over 2000PAs, we should start seeing improvement by now and he hasn't improved since his rookie year.

[Guest]

per UZR, only Alexei Ramirez, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan have saved more runs with their range (amongst SS) than Castro has since the start of his career; his problem has always been errors, which are frankly to be expected for a SS his age, but have improved each year in the league

 

i can't really see a legitimate reason he'll need to move off short unless injuries become a factor

 

Good stuff.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Out of the 16 shortstops who qualify to make Fangraphs' list for 2010 to 2013, Castro is also dead last in error runs by a fairly decent margin (-21.4, Ian Desmond is -14.3, no one else is even -6). He made a decent-sized leap in that regard from 2010 to 2011, but was essentially the same in 2012 and is off to a much worse start in 2013. I don't think it's quite as easy as saying "he's improved every year!" and shrugging it off.

[neely crenshaw]

I think in most people's plans for rebuilding, we need greatness out of Castro and Rizzo. Not just good, but great. Without that, we are either having to spend more money on high end offensive players, or delaying this process even longer. That's what makes this possible "trend" a significant potential problem.

[biittner77]

Castro for Stanton. Who wins that trade? Who has to include other pieces to balance it out?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro for Stanton. Who wins that trade? Who has to include other pieces to balance it out?

 

Cubs have to include some pretty good secondary pieces.

[neely crenshaw]

Off the Castro topic, but if we want to make this move we better hurry...lots of teams sniffing around for a deal involving Stanton.

Who could we possibly give? Obviously Miami not interested in veterans.

Stanton could be arbitration eligible in 2014, but not a free agent until 2017. I would think the asking price at this time may be out of the Cubs reach. Unless Castro was involved (wouldn't make sense to take on his contract to save money on Stanton), I don't see the Cubs having enough near major league ready talent to get him (Stanton) this early.

but a lineup with Stanton, Rizzo and Castro would look pretty nice for the next 5 years.

[Guest]

Castro for Stanton. Who wins that trade? Who has to include other pieces to balance it out?

 

Cubs have to include some pretty good secondary pieces.

 

Other way around.