Castro

[Guest]

It's actually his fourth season - I'm not judging this on one month.

 

Also, you ignored the question of whether you're happy with his development at this point. Starlin has 2000+ PA's in his career. He's definitely young and there's definitely time to mature as a hitter. But the simple question is: are you happy with the progress he's making at this point?

 

There's absolutely the implication you're referring to just this year when you're using a conversation from late last year as a point of comparison.

 

To that point, no, one month doesn't really change anything about how I view Castro, although I'm bummed he's off to a crappy start. That one month combined with his last year is less progress than I would have hoped, but progression and development is not a linear thing so I'm not terribly worried about his future, especially with the copious examples Sneaky has provided. He's still 6 months younger than Rizzo, it's easy to forget that.

[sneakypower]

It's actually his fourth season - I'm not judging this on one month.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1953&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,22&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

But the simple question is: are you happy with the progress he's making at this point?

yup

 

Dave Cameron puts it pretty well: "History suggests that the leap probably is coming. Most guys who are above average players from 20-22 become excellent players in their mid-20s, and Castro certainly has the physical tools to become an excellent player. If Castro follows a normal development curve, he could easily be a +4 or +5 win player by the time he would have reached free agency"

[Guest]

It's actually his fourth season - I'm not judging this on one month.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1953&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,22&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

But the simple question is: are you happy with the progress he's making at this point?

yup

 

Dave Cameron puts it pretty well: "History suggests that the leap probably is coming. Most guys who are above average players from 20-22 become excellent players in their mid-20s, and Castro certainly has the physical tools to become an excellent player. If Castro follows a normal development curve, he could easily be a +4 or +5 win player by the time he would have reached free agency"

I'm not sure if you noticed, but that's a real mix of inspiring and uninspiring names on that list.

[SABR Gamer]

It's actually his fourth season - I'm not judging this on one month.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1953&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,22&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

But the simple question is: are you happy with the progress he's making at this point?

yup

 

Dave Cameron puts it pretty well: "History suggests that the leap probably is coming. Most guys who are above average players from 20-22 become excellent players in their mid-20s, and Castro certainly has the physical tools to become an excellent player. If Castro follows a normal development curve, he could easily be a +4 or +5 win player by the time he would have reached free agency"

I'm not sure if you noticed, but that's a real mix of inspiring and uninspiring names on that list.

 

 

I think it's more about where he ranks than who the other people are.

[sneakypower]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

[Omar]

Say what you want about Castro, but he is excellent in video games.

[Tracer Bullet]

We could have another Jim [expletive] Fregosi on our hands and you guys can't just sit back and appreciate it.

[Guest]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

[Tracer Bullet]

Tim if you're asking if people are happy with Castro's first month then that's a ridiculous question. But if you're asking if people are happy with Castro's career to date then that's nearly as ridiculous.

 

If you're not asking either of those questions then what are you after? Did you expect people as smart as SP and TT to look at one month of struggles and lose their [expletive]?

[Guest]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't want to speak for Tim, but I think the point is that if you look at the predictions we were making for Castro after his rookie season, and after his second season, and compare them to what he's actually done since, there's a pretty noticeable difference.

[neely crenshaw]

My hope is that he has consciously or subconsciously been pressing the past year plus. I hope that is he is the type of player that will perform better with better players around him.

He and Rizzo both have to feel the weight of the organization on them at all times. Even as many are playing well, the Cubs record has to make them feel like they have to do even more.

I hope that's the reason for not only lack of progression but actually going backwards in many ways.

 

I think you're right Kyle(not speak for Tim, either).

 

Expectations can really tarnish your feelings on reality.

Edited May 6, 2013 by neely crenshaw

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't want to speak for Tim, but I think the point is that if you look at the predictions we were making for Castro after his rookie season, and after his second season, and compare them to what he's actually done since, there's a pretty noticeable difference.

 

 

I don't remember what the exact projections were at that point. But the list of SS that have been better than Castro at his age is very short and awesome. Maybe someone projected he'd have a better career than ARod. I bet that person feels foolish. But I'm much more worried about 100-loss seasons causing him to drink himself into oblivion than I am about him struggling in April when he's 23.

 

I think it's pretty clear what Tim's original point was. He sort of fessed up with the "don't post at 3am" post but now he's back to defending the original "hey I was right and you were wrong" message.

[Guest]

Tim if you're asking if people are happy with Castro's first month then that's a ridiculous question. But if you're asking if people are happy with Castro's career to date than that's nearly as ridiculous.

 

If you're not asking either of those questions then what are you after? Did you expect people as smart as SP and TT to look at one month of struggles and lose their [expletive]?

No.

 

A quick search tells me we had this discussion Aug 10-12 of last year. Which means we've had around another half season worth of PA's since that time.

 

Looking at career numbers through age 22 will tell you that Starlin is on a great path. However, looking at his numbers through age 21 gives you an even better picture. Looking at his numbers through age 20 gives an even better picture.

 

Again, I'll say this again: if he never improves beyond what he is today, Starlin will be a valuable player even as his deal gets more expensive. And he will improve by adding more power to his game.

 

What concerns me is that when he was 20, I was blown away by his natural talent and was confident we had a future HOF on our hands. In his age 21 season, he took a step forward, but actually regressed in his offensive performance at age 22.

 

The question isn't about how good Starlin has been through this point. The question is how good he's going to be from this point forward. I'd love to see signs of that progression, but only the power numbers are getting better with time. The walk rate fluctuates around 5% and his strikeout numbers around 14%. Looking in more detail around his command of the strike zone and he is actually getting worse at laying off pitches outside of the zone.

 

I just don't understand people as smart as sneaky and TT saying they're happy with the progression in his game. I'd like to understand why they say it other than the fact that other players who did well when this young did well later (though some didn't).

[Guest]

Jim Fregosi had a 7 year prime where he averaged a 4.4 fWAR, with peaks of 6.8 and 7.0. If he's a cautionary tale then I'm okay with that.

1) I've specifically talked about growth on offense for Castro. Fregosi got a lot of that value from defense.

 

2) Fregosi showed growth in his offensive game over his first three years in the league, which kind of illustrates what I'm talking about.

[Guest]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

 

Weren't most of the great ones around him on that list much more sure-fire (and really good) long term SSs?

[jersey cubs fan]

Again, I'll say this again: if he never improves beyond what he is today, Starlin will be a valuable player even as his deal gets more expensive. And he will improve by adding more power to his game.

 

You say it yourself right there, he's already a good player even if he does not improve from this point. And the likelihood of him not improving from this point is probably small.

 

I just don't understand people as smart as sneaky and TT saying they're happy with the progression in his game. I'd like to understand why they say it other than the fact that other players who did well when this young did well later (though some didn't).

 

I'm not smart like those guys but I'd say I am ecstatic that Castro is a Cub, although not ecstatic with the progression of his career in the near-term past. I am not upset at that progress either, it is fine. He's a young guy who has been forced to be the face of a god awful franchise. I am much more concerned with the progress of the organization under Ricketts/Epstein than I am of Castro's individual progress.

[Guest]

I don't want to speak for Tim, but I think the point is that if you look at the predictions we were making for Castro after his rookie season, and after his second season, and compare them to what he's actually done since, there's a pretty noticeable difference.

 

 

I don't remember what the exact projections were at that point. But the list of SS that have been better than Castro at his age is very short and awesome. Maybe someone projected he'd have a better career than ARod. I bet that person feels foolish. But I'm much more worried about 100-loss seasons causing him to drink himself into oblivion than I am about him struggling in April when he's 23.

 

I think it's pretty clear what Tim's original point was. He sort of fessed up with the "don't post at 3am" post but now he's back to defending the original "hey I was right and you were wrong" message.

There's really only one ARod - anyone predicting another really should feel foolish.

 

But I think it is dishonest of anyone to say they expect the same things out of Castro's career today after a lack of growth in his offensive game the past couple years. That was my point last August and it's still the point now.

 

My "don't post at 3am" was about the tone and quality of composition of that post. The general point still stands, though. How long is it required to wait before having an honest discussion about this without the drama?

[Tracer Bullet]

How long is it required to wait before having an honest discussion about this without the drama?

 

haha. You started this thread with a pretty dramatic, smug post, so...

[Guest]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

 

Weren't most of the great ones around him on that list much more sure-fire (and really good) long term SSs?

I'm not sure what you're really asking here. It's not like Starlin was considered a sure-fire guy until he hit .400 in the southern league at age 20 for a month and a half.

[Guest]

"Happy with his progression" and "not worried about his development" are not the same things. Of course I'd like to see more improvement, especially given his success in previous seasons. But again, Castro's development is not a straight line from good to great. I'm not going to radically change my thoughts on him based on such a small sample.

 

BTW, Castro from August 13 to the end of the season last year: 208 PA, .311/.370/.474/.844, 25/16 K/BB

[Guest]

Again, I'll say this again: if he never improves beyond what he is today, Starlin will be a valuable player even as his deal gets more expensive. And he will improve by adding more power to his game.

 

You say it yourself right there, he's already a good player even if he does not improve from this point. And the likelihood of him not improving from this point is probably small.

 

I just don't understand people as smart as sneaky and TT saying they're happy with the progression in his game. I'd like to understand why they say it other than the fact that other players who did well when this young did well later (though some didn't).

 

I'm not smart like those guys but I'd say I am ecstatic that Castro is a Cub, although not ecstatic with the progression of his career in the near-term past. I am not upset at that progress either, it is fine. He's a young guy who has been forced to be the face of a god awful franchise. I am much more concerned with the progress of the organization under Ricketts/Epstein than I am of Castro's individual progress.

You've mentioned the environment a couple of times now. I didn't know you were that big on player production being influenced by things like leadership, "winning" environments, etc.

[Guest]

How long is it required to wait before having an honest discussion about this without the drama?

 

haha. You started this thread with a pretty dramatic, smug post, so...

And you cut out the part where I admitted as much in that same paragraph.

[Guest]

the list of SS who've hit better than Castro to this point?

 

i just see 2 hall of famers, a guy on a HOF track until injuries derailed his career, and another guy with a moderately productive 14-year career

 

those were the only four names...maybe the page didn't load right for you, or something

Any argument using Jim Fregosi and Wil Cordero as shining examples isn't a compelling one.

 

Likewise, you can point to Trammell being right behind Starlin...followed by Templeton and then Chris Speier.

 

It's a mixed bag, this company he keeps. Which is why I'd like to see more progression from year to year. It would be nice to see him on the path to being Ripken or ARod instead of Fregosi or Cordero.

 

Weren't most of the great ones around him on that list much more sure-fire (and really good) long term SSs?

I'm not sure what you're really asking here. It's not like Starlin was considered a sure-fire guy until he hit .400 in the southern league at age 20 for a month and a half.

 

I'm saying that those players he's being compared to (the great ones, at least) were, as far as I remember, awesome defensive players. Castro isn't that and really may have to end up moving off the position (and at the very least, doesn't offer great value there from a defensive standpoint).

[neely crenshaw]

Right now Trammell would be a welcome comp/career for Castro, and not even in terms of longevity. Trammell even had a little dip in average at age 23-24 and then back up into the .300's.

The problem I see is that "IF" Castro managed to have an offensive career comparable to Trammell (which would be about 2011 levels) I think grand expectations for him would make far too many disappointed in that type of career.