Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-22-13

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Translation: I have no [expletive] clue.

A lot of guys probably haven't seen much of him yet.

 

Exactly my point. To label him as anything, be it future top 100 prospect or "org guy" is just stupid at this point.

[KingCubsFan]

Rock Shoulders has a 13/9 K/BB ratio after today. Candelario is at 9/11

Very encouraged by Candelario this year. Hopefully the power picks up when it gets warmer.

[ctcf]

Javy is 2/3 with 2 RBI and K so far. Both hits singles.

[Guest]

Not to be forgotten but Marco Hernandez had 2 doubles and his batting average is up to .286.

 

(Of course he's sporting an ugly IsoD of .019.)

[ctcf]

IStew just doubled home Watkins and essentially doubled his BA

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Javy with his 3rd hit, double.

[Little Slide Rooter]

IStew just doubled home Watkins and essentially doubled his BA

 

I have to think that they're having Stewart working on something, say pitch recognition and instructing him to lay off fastballs. There's no way he's being baffled by PCL pitching. That's usually the case when players seemingly get rocked in rehab assignments

[rawaction]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

Dopirak was a legit prospect. 56th overall pick. And his season in low A was one of the top ten I've ever seen in the minors.

[ctcf]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

Dopirak was a legit prospect. 56th overall pick. And his season in low A was one of the top ten I've ever seen in the minors.

 

And still never amounted to anything. My point stands.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Alcantara HR #4.

[rawaction]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

Dopirak was a legit prospect. 56th overall pick. And his season in low A was one of the top ten I've ever seen in the minors.

 

And still never amounted to anything. My point stands.

 

Yes, but Dopirak was at least talented enough to amount to something. Much better pedigree, projection, and potential to play an actual position in the field for Dopirak than Shoulders.

[ctcf]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

Dopirak was a legit prospect. 56th overall pick. And his season in low A was one of the top ten I've ever seen in the minors.

 

And still never amounted to anything. My point stands.

 

Yes, but Dopirak was at least talented enough to amount to something. Much better pedigree, projection, and potential to play an actual position in the field for Dopirak than Shoulders.

 

Haha I'm not denying that Dopriak had a superior pedigree and that wasn't part of my original point.

 

EDIT: Also, even though it's besides the point... Taking a quick glance back, it doesn't even look like he was that heralded of a prospect, even after his monster year. He profiled largely as a one-tool player, not that much unlike Shoulders.

 

Power is the single most important skill that a positional prospect can possess. Dopirak hit 39 home runs as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League, and he does not have a particularly long swing, so his power should translate very well as he moves up the ladder. Still, there are not too many players who put together major league careers of any consequence based on power alone—Dave Kingman was the exception, and not the rule. PECOTA expects some near-term regression as Dopirak strives to improve the other aspects of his game. His athleticism and defense are probably lost causes, so the most obvious choice is his plate discipline; add 20 walks to that stat line and we have a much more attractive prospect.

[Quakers]

Would promoting Shoulders to Daytona sometime in June be a reasonable expectation if he remotely continues on his current pace?

 

 

Maybe. My memory is that he was older than the other players at Boise. I would not get too excited about him until he does better at a higher level.

 

From what I saw when he made contact, he put a hurt on the ball. But he did not make enough contact. Breaking balls were fooling him. Off-speed pitches too. But he was patient and tried to wait for his pitch. But I am not a scout.

 

Maybe he is seeing the ball better. Maybe he is really a diamond in the rough. But I would wait and see how he does at this level in a few weeks. Someone is bound to find a chink in his armor.

[davell]

Alcantara HR #4.

Hell yeah.

[Guest]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

Dopirak was a legit prospect. 56th overall pick. And his season in low A was one of the top ten I've ever seen in the minors.

 

And still never amounted to anything. My point stands.

 

Yes, but Dopirak was at least talented enough to amount to something. Much better pedigree, projection, and potential to play an actual position in the field for Dopirak than Shoulders.

 

Haha I'm not denying that Dopriak had a superior pedigree and that wasn't part of my original point.

 

EDIT: Also, even though it's besides the point... Taking a quick glance back, it doesn't even look like he was that heralded of a prospect, even after his monster year. He profiled largely as a one-tool player, not that much unlike Shoulders.

 

Power is the single most important skill that a positional prospect can possess. Dopirak hit 39 home runs as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League, and he does not have a particularly long swing, so his power should translate very well as he moves up the ladder. Still, there are not too many players who put together major league careers of any consequence based on power alone—Dave Kingman was the exception, and not the rule. PECOTA expects some near-term regression as Dopirak strives to improve the other aspects of his game. His athleticism and defense are probably lost causes, so the most obvious choice is his plate discipline; add 20 walks to that stat line and we have a much more attractive prospect.

 

Huh? BA ranked him the #21 prospect in all of baseball after his big year (that's only 5 spots behind Javier Baez' current ranking).

[davell]

.288/.361/.466, 4HR, 9W, and 10/10 SB. Alcantara breakout? In progress.

[toonsterwu]

Well, he did go .302/.339/.447 last year, "breaking out", in particular, with his power (ISO went from 0.081 in MWL to .145 in FSL). What's interesting, to me, is the elevated walk and K rates so far. Very curious how those numbers play out over the season. You can live with him striking out at that rate. If he can continue walking at his current rate, that could really elevate him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If nothing else, he can be a super sub so that we can stop cycling through retreads

[ctcf]

Huh? BA ranked him the #21 prospect in all of baseball after his big year (that's only 5 spots behind Javier Baez' current ranking).

 

Heh. Sounds like Goldstein (I guess?) and whoever wrote the Annual chapter that year weren't on the same page.

 

Also I forgot how quickly and completely he fell of the map. Just 2 years removed he was completely out of the Cubs Top 10. Also, it's weird to think Donnie Veal was once our highest rated prospect.

[Guest]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

I think Dope might have been on the Dope.

[KingCubsFan]

Hahaha, most likely. It is important to remember that odds are this is Brian Dopriak revisited moreso than anything else. Still, it's been pretty damn fun so far.

I think Dope might have been on the Dope.

He had 80 power coming out of high school. I remember when he was drafted, and Callis or somebody else said that he was either going to be an All-Star or flame out in AA, with little chance of anything in between. Pretty accurate prediction in the end.

[craig]

Well, he did go .302/.339/.447 last year, "breaking out", in particular, with his power (ISO went from 0.081 in MWL to .145 in FSL). What's interesting, to me, is the elevated walk and K rates so far. Very curious how those numbers play out over the season. You can live with him striking out at that rate. If he can continue walking at his current rate, that could really elevate him.

 

Agree, it will be really interesting to see how it plays out. I don't think you can do the K/W without also including the HR's. His OBP/BA/OPS is lifted by the HR's, and I doubt he'll sustain his HR rate. (I don't expect him to hit 28 or more HR's this season...)

 

19K/73AB is a high K-rate (about like Jackson his first year in AA.) But 4HR per 19K offsets the K's and maintains good batting average and OBP. Despite all those K's, he's needed only a .340 BABIP to sustain his healthy .288 average, thanks to the HR's. But, if those HR's tail off while he maintains that kind of K-rate, his average will go down and his OBP will be back to normal. If he maintains his current K/BABIP rates and I multiply volume by 7 (18 games to 126 games), while only bumping his HR's to 10 instead of 28, he'd end with a .252 average, and lowish OBP.

 

I doubt his HR-rate is sustainable, although I hope I'm wrong. My point, I guess, is that the increase in BB's has been neutralized by the increase in K's. My guess is he'll made adjustments to reduce the high K-rate, and sacrifice some of his new-found BB-rate.

 

Either way, it will be really interesting to see how things settle out in the months ahead.

 

An interesting note is that he's still predominantly a singles hitter. I like to see 30% of a prospects hits go for XB, or more. Last year, 73% of Alcantara's hits were singles. 76% singles this far. For context, Barney was a 73% singles guy last year.

 

Heh, of course if he's 10SB/0CS, and I prorate that to 70SB/0CS, a lot of his walks/singles will be doubles! I think it would be REALLY cool if his current base-stealing binge was legit.

[toonsterwu]

That's fair. A note on his power is that BA comped him to Jimmy Rolliins, and Jimmy did have a couple plus power seasons in hi prime, IIRC. I think a reasonable expectation for Alcantara, assuming positive development, is probably more 12-18 with a lot of doubles, but the Rollins comp did pique my attention (I think it was BA).