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Banedon

By Banedon,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Everyone is way too high on Arrieta.

So Kyle

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Everyone is way too high on Arrieta.

Yeah, I think 4 WAR is probably a bit optimistic.

 

I'd be worried about health, but I could toss that disclaimer at all pitchers (and, yes, I saw the link above - but I'm done trying to figure out pitcher health...it's more of a crapshoot than anything). His performance wasn't a fluke, even if the actual result in terms of runs allowed was a little better than expectation.

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Everyone is way too high on Arrieta.

Yeah, I think 4 WAR is probably a bit optimistic.

 

I'd be worried about health, but I could toss that disclaimer at all pitchers (and, yes, I saw the link above - but I'm done trying to figure out pitcher health...it's more of a crapshoot than anything). His performance wasn't a fluke, even if the actual result in terms of runs allowed was a little better than expectation.

Probably best to just make your best estimate at pitcher war and take off 20% (or some more scientific figure) off the board due to health.

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I feel like this is the closest that an athlete has ever come to using humbled correctly

 

Kerry Wood ‏@KerryWood 26m26 minutes ago

@JLester31 welcome to the Cubs! Humbled that you chose 34 and honored to be referenced with two Hall of Fame greats. #cubs

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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.
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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.

Once

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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.

Once

 

In a sustainable fashion (in terms of the way he pitched).

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Everyone is way too high on Arrieta.

 

I think you are way too low on Arrieta if you think 4 WAR is "way too high."

 

Injury is the main reason he may not reach that point. He pitched way better than that last year. He was a top 5 starter in baseball.

Edited by New York Cubs Fan
jersey cubs fan GOAT

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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.

Once

 

In a sustainable fashion (in terms of the way he pitched).

What does that mean?

Throwing sliders at an all time high rate?

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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.

Once

 

In a sustainable fashion (in terms of the way he pitched).

What does that mean?

Throwing sliders at an all time high rate?

 

It means that there were real tangible reasons for the success he had and it wasn't flukish or lucky.

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Arrieta's 2014 with 32 starts is 6.3 fWAR. Take 20% off that because you think he over performed and you're at 5 wins, take off another 20% for injury risk and you're at 4 wins. You can even tick up either/both of those percentages and still reasonably round up to 4 wins. Arrieta was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year, minimum 150 IP he was 10th/2nd/6th in ERA/FIP/xFIP. Skepticism and injury worry are fine, but we also have to keep in mind the heights he reached.

Once

 

In a sustainable fashion (in terms of the way he pitched).

What does that mean?

Throwing sliders at an all time high rate?

 

Don't act like you don't understand what he's saying. This isn't a guy who put up a crazy ERA with an average FIP. His FIP was actually better than his ERA. His numbers were legitimate. The slider/cutter usage is somewhat concerning, but if he stays healthy he's a stud.

 

Arrieta may be a bigger injury risk than an average pitcher, but projecting him for only 4 WAR is probably factoring that in already. Fully healthy Arrieta could be a 6 win pitcher.

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http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53914/path-to-the-playoffs-nl-central

 

Chicago Cubs

2014: 73-89, -93 run differential

2015 projection: 83-79, +16

 

As you can see, the FanGraphs projection system already sees the Cubs on the fringes of playoff contention, thanks to an offseason that has seen them sign Jon Lester, re-sign Jason Hammel and trade for Miguel Montero. New manager Joe Maddon certainly won't disagree, saying at his introductory news conference, "For me, I'm going to be talking playoffs next year. I'm going to tell you that right now. Because I can't go to spring training and say any other thing. I'm just incapable of doing that. Why would you even report? It's all about setting your standards and your goals high, because if you don't set them high enough you might actually hit your mark."

 

CubsSo 83 wins appears realistic. How do the Cubs get a few more to return to October baseball for the first time since 2008?

 

Let's start with the idea that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's offseason may not be done, even if they have already received an A-plus from Jim Bowden.

 

They could add another starter to go with Lester, Jake Arrieta, Hammel, Travis Wood and Kyle Hendricks, although they have possible depth already in reclamation projects Edwin Jackson (remember, he had his first success under Maddon in Tampa Bay), Felix Doubront and Jacob Turner. More likely, they will look to add an outfielder. Jorge Soler is set in right field, but center and left are unsettled among the likes of Arismendy Alcantara, Justin Ruggiano, Chris Coghlan and Ryan Sweeney. The Steamer/FanGraphs projections has the Cubs outfield at just 4.5 combined WAR, so there's room for improvement.

 

Aside from that, some of the projections for the Cubs youngsters are pretty conservative:

 

• Anthony Rizzo: .271/.359/.501 after hitting .286/.386/.527 last year in his age-24 season;

• Javier Baez: .225/.279/.419 but who has the ability to hit 30 home runs;

• Kris Bryant: .260/.341/.485 in 315 plate appearances.

 

Bryant will probably spend two to three weeks in Triple-A to save on service time, but give him 550 to 600 PAs and he could be a 30-homer guy as well.

 

Projection systems by nature are a little conservative. But Lester is a good bet to post an ERA better than 3.28 as he moves to the DH-less National League, and I like Arrieta to beat his 3.59 mark.

 

Maybe the Cubs are looking to 2016 and beyond. But don't be surprised if the future arrives now.

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Most excited I've been for ST in a long, long time.

I'm excited every year, but yes I can hardly wait.

Banedon GOAT

Banedon

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Most excited I've been for ST in a long, long time.

I'm excited every year, but yes I can hardly wait.

 

The last several years have made me wonder if I was really a fan of the sport. I guess I am.

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