Random Cubs Musings

[CubColtPacer]

i don't really even understand what you're raging about. #ptr is the one who mandated the small market-esque payroll, not epstein/hoyer.

 

PTR may be responsible for most of it, but the front office quite explicitly said they left payroll on the table this year.

 

well good for them! fortunately the $10-15m or whatever they didn't spend actually still exists, rather than being piled up and burned in a massive bonfire, so they now have the option of spending it in future years.

 

I would not be so sure about that. That's generally not how businesses run themselves.

 

That's true. But it was reported this spring that this was the first time that the Cubs have allowed their front office to roll over money from year to year, and the front office took advantage of that by not spending all their money this offseason.

[Guest]

I'm being rational bitches

[jersey cubs fan]

i don't really even understand what you're raging about. #ptr is the one who mandated the small market-esque payroll, not epstein/hoyer.

 

PTR may be responsible for most of it, but the front office quite explicitly said they left payroll on the table this year.

 

well good for them! fortunately the $10-15m or whatever they didn't spend actually still exists, rather than being piled up and burned in a massive bonfire, so they now have the option of spending it in future years.

 

I would not be so sure about that. That's generally not how businesses run themselves.

 

That's true. But it was reported this spring that this was the first time that the Cubs have allowed their front office to roll over money from year to year, and the front office took advantage of that by not spending all their money this offseason.

 

I think it is best to take any business/finance related Cubs story with a huge grain of a salt considering they are generally written by people who focus on batting averages with runners in scoring positions and RBI. This is especially true when you consider ownership's need to finance a major infrastructure overhaul, plus payoff politicians and whatnot.

[Guest]

I'm going to write a beautiful piece called How I Stopped Thinking Positive and Came to Love the Meatball and give it to Tim to put on the front page. When guys end up being hack machines and getting hit by balls and other players and cars and the TV bubble bursts and Chicago goes bankrupt and takes the Cubs with them it will be seen as prophetic. The farm system simply is the one that thing that hasn't gone wrong...yet.

 

This is anti-logic and insanity and deep down inside of you you all know that it's true. Embrace the meatball and realize what we are trapped in.

 

You could have just stopped with the bolded.

[Guest]

That's true. But it was reported this spring that this was the first time that the Cubs have allowed their front office to roll over money from year to year, and the front office took advantage of that by not spending all their money this offseason.

 

I think it is best to take any business/finance related Cubs story with a huge grain of a salt considering they are generally written by people who focus on batting averages with runners in scoring positions and RBI. This is especially true when you consider ownership's need to finance a major infrastructure overhaul, plus payoff politicians and whatnot.

 

If we're going to take the front office's word that they didn't spend to their budgeted limits this year like Kyle alludes to, I don't see any reason to doubt them when they say that money will be available in future seasons. It's not an enormous amount, especially since it doesn't get tacked on to each future payroll, but it matters.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm fine with believing it will roll over, but that means the "it's not our fault we're bad this year, the owners didn't give us enough money" card is out of play.

 

I'm pretty sure we have enough money from here on out to do anything we feel like. The problem is whether or not they feel like doing enough in any given offseason, given that free agents are still going to be less than ideal value.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm being rational bitches

 

agreed! now if you could extend this to university of illinois athletics and bears football... well, even better.

[Guest]

I'm fine with believing it will roll over, but that means the "it's not our fault we're bad this year, the owners didn't give us enough money" card is out of play.

 

I'm pretty sure we have enough money from here on out to do anything we feel like. The problem is whether or not they feel like doing enough in any given offseason, given that free agents are still going to be less than ideal value.

I thought that's the whole idea of having cheap production in the lineup, so we can spend inefficiently on expensive pitching.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm fine with believing it will roll over, but that means the "it's not our fault we're bad this year, the owners didn't give us enough money" card is out of play.

 

I'm pretty sure we have enough money from here on out to do anything we feel like. The problem is whether or not they feel like doing enough in any given offseason, given that free agents are still going to be less than ideal value.

I thought that's the whole idea of having cheap production in the lineup, so we can spend inefficiently on expensive pitching.

 

And you call yourself a commie?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm fine with believing it will roll over, but that means the "it's not our fault we're bad this year, the owners didn't give us enough money" card is out of play.

 

I'm pretty sure we have enough money from here on out to do anything we feel like. The problem is whether or not they feel like doing enough in any given offseason, given that free agents are still going to be less than ideal value.

I thought that's the whole idea of having cheap production in the lineup, so we can spend inefficiently on expensive pitching.

 

I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not saying we're going to get nothing, but we need a lot, and to get a lot you have to pay market rates, and they don't seem to like paying market rates.

[Guest]

It adds up too well for Maeda not to be the guy for me. His lack of TOR ceiling mitigates the teams interested in him given the abundance of similar talents available for shorter contracts, plus Tanaka's injury may scare some others about Japanese workloads. His age fits this FO much better than Scherzer/Lester, the aforementioned money rolled over fits perfectly to cover the posting/release fee without worries about impacting total payroll or cashflow for debt purposes, and if they really want to they can let Wada be a long man in the pen to serve as his Japanese buddy.

 

Of course, similar things could be said about Tanaka last year, and while I wonder if they might have gotten him if not for the posting system change, it's not a slam dunk. Still, the underlying point is that you can still spend a good deal of money on pitching and upgrade pitching without dropping 20+ million AAV on a Scherzer or Lester or other 'out of character' expenditure.

[Guest]

Isn't Maeda viewed as like bottom of rotation type? Like 3ish on the high end? Seems we have that part of the rotation pretty well covered.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd be fine with Maeda. I don't need a Lester or Scherzer to be happy.

 

I just want to see them make an effort to fill the entire roster with competent players. No "He's probably terrible but might as well take a chance on the upside because who cares" Junior Lake/Mike Olt deals.

 

If they do that and don't have terrible variance or injury luck, I'd expect to be playing meaningful games this time next year.

[Guest]

Isn't Maeda viewed as like bottom of rotation type? Like 3ish on the high end? Seems we have that part of the rotation pretty well covered.

 

Depends on who's making the comparison. For the prospect types that identify about 15 guys in the world as being above a #3 ceiling, yes. Maeda is very unlikely to put up a 5 win season at the MLB level, that doesn't mean he's interchangeable with 4/5 types that will make up the end of next year's rotation. Look at Iwakuma or Ryu for a couple good real life examples.

[Guest]

I'd be fine with Maeda. I don't need a Lester or Scherzer to be happy.

 

I just want to see them make an effort to fill the entire roster with competent players. No "He's probably terrible but might as well take a chance on the upside because who cares" Junior Lake/Mike Olt deals.

 

If they do that and don't have terrible variance or injury luck, I'd expect to be playing meaningful games this time next year.

 

If they do what they've done with pitching in the past (a couple guys from the McCarthy/Liriano/whatever is out there along those lines), is that enough?

 

Their lineup is going to be pretty full with the prospects so I wouldn't exactly want them doing too much positionally. An OF like Castillo would be good. Maybe a C.

[KingCubsFan]

I'd like to see if we could Trevor Bauer for something relatively cheap.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If they do what they've done with pitching in the past (a couple guys from the McCarthy/Liriano/whatever is out there along those lines), is that enough?

 

Their lineup is going to be pretty full with the prospects so I wouldn't exactly want them doing too much positionally. An OF like Castillo would be good. Maybe a C.

 

It's bordering on not enough, but it might be defensible. If they do that, they better be right about Arrieta and Hendricks and one of the Doubront/Straily/Wood/Jackson/Wada club.

 

Even if you plan on graduating Baez, Bryant and Soler immediately, you still need one more starting position player (probably outfield), probably two Bonifacio-style reserve infielders, and a backup catcher (or a starter to push Castillo to splitting time)

[Guest]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

[KingCubsFan]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

If Russell stays at short, he'll probably have the best chance at the highest WAR, but I'm pretty confident Bryant will have an impact bat at the majors rather quickly.

[Fro]

I would definitely expect a fair amount of spending given the payroll coming off the books and the additional revenue at Wrigley from the signage (although some of that would go towards paying off the renovations).

 

Probably the more important thing is that Baez/Bryant/Soler should all be playing in the bigs and that starts your window to assemble a really good team (2015-2021). You've got to have the pieces in place around them to compete if those guys do well in their first year.

[SouthSideRyan]

With the amount of money we have to spend, I'm going to be pretty disappointed without Scherzer or Lester. So I'm going to be pretty disappointed.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd be fine with Maeda. I don't need a Lester or Scherzer to be happy.

 

I just want to see them make an effort to fill the entire roster with competent players. No "He's probably terrible but might as well take a chance on the upside because who cares" Junior Lake/Mike Olt deals.

 

If they do that and don't have terrible variance or injury luck, I'd expect to be playing meaningful games this time next year.

 

If they do what they've done with pitching in the past (a couple guys from the McCarthy/Liriano/whatever is out there along those lines), is that enough?

 

What is that a 70M payroll?

[TruffleShuffle]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

 

probably bryant, just because he's been destroying every level he's played at, and i don't expect it will take him long at all to be beating up on major league pitching. plus this year, todd frazier (!!!) is on pace to be a 5 win player and has a line of .282/.340/.468 with slightly above average defense. that's almost where i see bryant's floor.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Who do you guys think, from the Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell group, is most likely to become like a 5+ win monster, within, say, 2 years?

 

I'm definitely not saying it's likely to happen, but I also wouldn't be anywhere near shocked to see one of them do it given the fact that those are 5 immensely talented dudes.

 

In order of likelihood of posting a 5-win season by 2016:

 

Baez, Alcantara, Bryant, Soler, Russell

 

I'm probably low on Bryant, but I'm not sold on his defense the way I am Baez and Alcantara's, and we already *know* Alcantara doesn't have BrettJackson-itis, which I'm worried about with Bryant and the massive K problems.

 

Alcantara I think is going to be underrated in this regard. He's got a chance to play really plus defense and add some value in baserunning, and leading off would give him a chance to get *tons* of plate appearances.

 

Something like 2013 Ben Zobrist with less OBP and more power.

[Guest]

With the amount of money we have to spend, I'm going to be pretty disappointed without Scherzer or Lester. So I'm going to be pretty disappointed.

 

On the one hand, I want them to spend all this money they have at their disposal. Sign all the free agents.

 

On the other, I really hate the idea of paying pitchers all that money.

 

I have no idea how to reconcile these two feelings.