Random Cubs Musings

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, I saw the Astros drop $90m or whatever on free agents two offseasons ago.

 

They have alternated trying and not trying schizophrenically, but a lot of the reason we suck is because they have made sucky decisions, not because they are trying to suck.

[Guest]

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

 

Flashforward to 2016, when the Cubs go 79-83 and Castillo provides a 0.2 WAR turd of a season, and we can't blame Theo because Castillo had just seemed so reliable.

 

Seems weird that Castillo would be the focal point of a disappointing season like that, but whatever floats your boat.

 

yeah, it seems like kyle is turned up full blast today

[davell]

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Barney/Valbuena

SS Castro

3B Olt

LF Lake

CF Sweeney

RF Kalish

 

With Javy, KB, and Alcantara around within a year

 

Versus what he inherited

 

C Soto

1B Nothing

2B Barney

SS Castro

3B Nothing

LF Soriano-3/54

CF Byrd

RF Nothing

 

With Castillo, Jackson, and Vitters waiting

 

Plus 18 mill of Zambrano, multiple years of Marmol, a large one year deal on Dempster

 

If you'd honestly take what Hendry left as an organization over what's here now, I'm not sure there's anything left to be said.

[KingCubsFan]

 

If you'd honestly take what Hendry left as an organization over what's here now, I'm not sure there's anything left to be said.

You underestimate Kyle.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled..

 

Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.

 

he was a 3.2 fwar player last year and he's on about a 3 fwar pace this year. the position is filled.

 

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

 

I agree that he's both serviceable and that spot is way down the list of necessities. The problem I see though is that this team is so far away from contending that given his age and position I would bet he will absolutely need to be replaced* before the next playoff game.

 

*Or at least pared with a much more serviceable backup.

[Guest]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled. With Olt having a chance to be a 4th. It's not ideal obviously. Hopefully 2 more spots are filled from within by mid season next year. It'd leave 2-3 spots to be filled by short term FA and maybe a single long term one.

 

It DOES depend a whole hell of a lot on what Javy, KB, Alcantara look like once they come up obviously. If out of the 3, we get an All Star and a starter, I really like where we're at. If its a starter and 2 busts, we've got a ton of work to do.

 

This is more or less how I'm viewing the state of the roster. C, 1B, and SS are locked down, and the hope from this year is that Lake or Olt shows enough to be considered a regular next year(if only the 6th-8th best hitter in the lineup). Sweeney/Kalish/Ruggiano(maybe Lake too) showing the ability to form a decent platoon outfielder would be a nice plus, but not overly necessary. From there, you want to see 2 guys be ready to contribute next year from Baez, Alcantara, Bryant, and Soler. Add a good outfielder to that mix and you more or less have the 2015 position players: Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, FA/Trade OF, Lake/Olt, Platooon OF, Prospect 1, Prospect 2. The quality of that offense would be driven by how quickly those prospects mature and the quality of the OF you get.

 

The rotation is similarly segmented. Wood, Jackson, and Samardzija/return on Shark's trade are locked into 3 spots, they need to add an external SP that's good(probably better than a Hammel/Feldman), and Arrieta, Hendricks, maybe a Baker type signing compete for the last spot. Things like whether or not Shark is traded and for who, and how Arrieta progresses this year will dictate how good the SP needs to be for the rotation to be a good one.

 

At this time the bullpen doesn't need any real work, that could change over the course of the year, but right now the odds of finding 5-6 worthy options from the laundry list of available guys looks pretty good.

[Sammy Sofa]

It seems pretty obvious they're intentionally tanking, just like the Astros.

 

I don't think it is obvious because there approach HASN'T been like the Astros; if they're trying to tank then why even bother with the halfassed attempts to do anything? We complain about how little they're spending relative to what they should be able to spend, but they HAVE spent a whole heck of a lot more than the Astros. Why even bother with that?

[Sammy Sofa]

I think we've got 3 of 8 position players filled..

 

Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.

 

he was a 3.2 fwar player last year and he's on about a 3 fwar pace this year. the position is filled.

 

Yeah, at the very least he's serviceable. Filling the catcher spot with someone else is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the list of necessities right now.

 

I agree that he's both serviceable and that spot is way down the list of necessities. The problem I see though is that this team is so far away from contending that given his age and position I would bet he will absolutely need to be replaced* before the next playoff game.

 

*Or at least pared with a much more serviceable backup.

 

Oh, definitely.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you'd honestly take what Hendry left as an organization over what's here now, I'm not sure there's anything left to be said.

 

I didn't say "as an organization."

 

I specifically said "on the MLB roster."

[jersey cubs fan]

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Barney/Valbuena

SS Castro

3B Olt

LF Lake

CF Sweeney

RF Kalish

 

With Javy, KB, and Alcantara around within a year

 

Versus what he inherited

 

C Soto

1B Nothing

2B Barney

SS Castro

3B Nothing

LF Soriano-3/54

CF Byrd

RF Nothing

 

With Castillo, Jackson, and Vitters waiting

 

Plus 18 mill of Zambrano, multiple years of Marmol, a large one year deal on Dempster

 

If you'd honestly take what Hendry left as an organization over what's here now, I'm not sure there's anything left to be said.

 

They could have easily kept Ramirez.

[SouthSideRyan]

Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record.

 

Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless.

worth noting that both pitchers we bombed (Cingrani, Lyons) were likely pitching injured (both were placed on DL immediately following their starts)

 

Well that makes me feel worse.

 

And we padded 6 on in the 9th against Randy Choate who 1. Has gotta be about 50 years old, 2. is a LOOGY, and 3. was clearly out there to just get the game over with.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think Olt or Lake looks like an acceptable starter for 2015.

 

I don't think we're going to get a 2015 rotation-locked pitcher for Samardzija

 

I don't think we're going to get two full-time 2015 productive starters out of Bryant, Baez, Soler and Alcantara.

 

And of course the -0.2 fWAR bullpen needs work.

[DiamondMind]

levine is on 670 desperately trying to explain why olt and lake arent playing daily. I dont agree.

[Guest]

It seems pretty obvious they're intentionally tanking, just like the Astros.

 

I don't think it is obvious because there approach HASN'T been like the Astros; if they're trying to tank then why even bother with the halfassed attempts to do anything? We complain about how little they're spending relative to what they should be able to spend, but they HAVE spent a whole heck of a lot more than the Astros. Why even bother with that?

 

Outside of Edwin Jackson, have they really spent much money? They're tanking with a strategy of flipping assets. Pretty much every other FA they've signed was to a short term agreement and has been flipped. Last offseason's plan of Tanaka or bust was basically Tanaka or tank one more year.

[jersey cubs fan]

levine is on 670 desperately trying to explain why olt and lake arent playing daily. I dont agree.

 

you don't agree with his explanation or just the fact that they are not playing?

[Guest]

They've also faced Wainwright or Wacha in 16% of all games this season, plus scheduling quirks like catching Tanaka in a 2 game series, getting the 3 best Braves starters, etc. Run differential over ~40 games is a faint signal, trying to pick out aberrant parts of that small sample is an unproductive exercise.

[jersey cubs fan]

trying to pick out aberrant parts of that small sample is an unproductive exercise.

 

And trying to explain away this season as unlucky is productive?

[davell]

C Castillo

1B Rizzo

2B Barney/Valbuena

SS Castro

3B Olt

LF Lake

CF Sweeney

RF Kalish

 

With Javy, KB, and Alcantara around within a year

 

Versus what he inherited

 

C Soto

1B Nothing

2B Barney

SS Castro

3B Nothing

LF Soriano-3/54

CF Byrd

RF Nothing

 

With Castillo, Jackson, and Vitters waiting

 

Plus 18 mill of Zambrano, multiple years of Marmol, a large one year deal on Dempster

 

If you'd honestly take what Hendry left as an organization over what's here now, I'm not sure there's anything left to be said.

 

They could have easily kept Ramirez.

 

With the money constraints, I'm not sure of that. We added DeJesus and Maholm that year, while lowering payroll.

[Guest]

I don't think Olt or Lake looks like an acceptable starter for 2015.

 

I don't think we're going to get a 2015 rotation-locked pitcher for Samardzija

 

I don't think we're going to get two full-time 2015 productive starters out of Bryant, Baez, Soler and Alcantara.

 

And of course the -0.2 fWAR bullpen needs work.

 

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

[Guest]

trying to pick out aberrant parts of that small sample is an unproductive exercise.

 

And trying to explain away this season as unlucky is productive?

 

The answer to that question was the part of that sentence you cut out.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

 

Being "negative" has a pretty good streak of being right lately.

[Guest]

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

 

Being "negative" has a pretty good streak of being right lately.

 

96% sport wide, good gamble

[jersey cubs fan]

trying to pick out aberrant parts of that small sample is an unproductive exercise.

 

And trying to explain away this season as unlucky is productive?

 

The answer to that question was the part of that sentence you cut out.

 

But that goes back to the simple fact that none of these discussions are productive. What is the point of pointing out how unproductive it is to point out that the pythag is skewed by a couple weird things?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Trying to strip "outliers" out of run differential is like trying to take hits out of batting average. That's what it is there to measure.

[Sammy Sofa]

Outside of Edwin Jackson, have they really spent much money? They're tanking with a strategy of flipping assets. Pretty much every other FA they've signed was to a short term agreement and has been flipped. Last offseason's plan of Tanaka or bust was basically Tanaka or tank one more year.

 

Well, they've definitely spent a lot more than the Astros. And if the plan was Tanaka or bust what is the move that offers them that option THIS offseason? Baez turning it around?