Random Cubs Musings

[Gmoney08]

Current rough WAR 160 game pace

 

Castro - 3.7 (would be a career best)

Rizzo - 5.0 (also a career best obviously)

 

 

 

FWIW, not that it matters, but Bonifacio is up there too at like 4.1.

 

Bonifacio probably accumulated all that pace in 2 games.

 

Lets be realistic it was more like four games now that he decided to start is Ruthian pace up again today..

[neely crenshaw]

He's a place holder but he's better than the alternative until someone is ready.

I think his career ob% is .320 which isn't good but we don't have many options.

Everything above his career norms is a bonus.

What we really need is for him to continuing playing above his norm, and then have a contender need a utility guy/middle infielder.

[Guest]

Jonah Keri touches on the Cubs run differential plus Rizzo and Samardzija: http://grantland.com/features/the-30-cubs-mets-nationals-angels-run-differential/

[Guest]

Jonah Keri touches on the Cubs run differential plus Rizzo and Samardzija: http://grantland.com/features/the-30-cubs-mets-nationals-angels-run-differential/

 

the run differential is nothing new. we are cursed.

[jersey cubs fan]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

[Sammy Sofa]

That and that whoever is playing in if the OF is usually dog [expletive].

[Guest]

N/m Edited May 13, 2014 by CubinNY

[Guest]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

 

i think Olt's OBP will come up. and the fact that he hits home runs greatly helps our chances of winning games.

[Guest]

That and that whoever is playing in if the OF is usually dog [expletive].

 

How does that make the run differential odd?

[Guest]

We've been through this before. Run differential is only valid as a summative statistic. It might be cathartic to bitch about the run differential but it's meanigless information for about 2/3 of the season.

 

From the link posted:

 

It can be unreliable and even misleading very early in the season, when a 10-1 win or 13-2 loss can skew the stats, but at a certain point it becomes an indispensable metric. When? Glad you asked! Just last week, excellent Baseball Prospectus analyst Russell Carleton explored that very question, examining how long it takes until a team’s run differential becomes more than random noise. And while you should read Carleton’s column all the way through,2 I’ll share his conclusion: “Around the 40-game mark — mid-May — run differential starts to be a good predictor of what things will look like at the end of the year.”

 

Well, it’s May 13, which means we’ve pretty much reached that point of statistical relevance. Since run differential is a better predictor of future results than a team’s actual record, it’s time to start lending more credence to runs scored and runs allowed totals when assessing how good each team is and what its remaining 120-odd games might bring.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I can buy us playing near-.500 for the next six weeks before we start gutting the team via trade.

[jersey cubs fan]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

 

i think Olt's OBP will come up. and the fact that he hits home runs greatly helps our chances of winning games.

 

In the games he actually hits homeruns, sure. The fact that he only hits homeruns but makes a ton of outs doesn't help them win many games.

[davell]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

 

i think Olt's OBP will come up. and the fact that he hits home runs greatly helps our chances of winning games.

 

In the games he actually hits homeruns, sure. The fact that he only hits homeruns but makes a ton of outs doesn't help them win many games.

 

He has good discipline and will take walks. The OBP is coming up now. He'll have a 10% walk rate soon enough. He may hit between .200-.220, but the OBP will be fine.

[jersey cubs fan]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

 

i think Olt's OBP will come up. and the fact that he hits home runs greatly helps our chances of winning games.

 

In the games he actually hits homeruns, sure. The fact that he only hits homeruns but makes a ton of outs doesn't help them win many games.

 

He has good discipline and will take walks. The OBP is coming up now. He'll have a 10% walk rate soon enough. He may hit between .200-.220, but the OBP will be fine.

 

Whatever you theorize it "will be", it is .257 and that is terrible and that is a part of the reason the team OBP is only .300 and is part of the reason why they've lost so many games.

[neely crenshaw]

The run differential is pretty easy to explain. Over the last two years we have good starting pitching and poor offense. Pitching keeps the runs down win or lose. On those days when our offense explodes we win by a lot (see:yesterday) but tend to lose by small margins.

From last Monday we went 2-6, but won those 2 games by 19 runs and lost the 6 games by 15.

unfortunately I don't see it as a case where the runs will even out and help us win more often. I just think we will remain remarkably inconsistent, probably just enough to drive whatever fans remain completely nuts.

[Guest]

Don't really have the time to get into this, but they are talking about predicting future performance, not explaining current record.

 

Also teams with really bad offenses and better than average bullpens seem to defy run differential predictions to an extent. I'd say the Cubs fall into that category. There's a bunch of other stuff but I don't have the time to get into it. Baseball is not an actuarial science.

[davell]

The run differential is "odd" but explainable by the presence of guys like Olt and Lake on the team. In any given PA, they can look like terrific major league hitters; Lake especially just looks like he murders the ball on occasion while Olt can hit some bombs, and that is how you occasionally put up crooked numbers. But they have .250 OBPs and over the long haul will just kill a lineup doing that.

 

i think Olt's OBP will come up. and the fact that he hits home runs greatly helps our chances of winning games.

 

In the games he actually hits homeruns, sure. The fact that he only hits homeruns but makes a ton of outs doesn't help them win many games.

 

He has good discipline and will take walks. The OBP is coming up now. He'll have a 10% walk rate soon enough. He may hit between .200-.220, but the OBP will be fine.

 

Whatever you theorize it "will be", it is .257 and that is terrible and that is a part of the reason the team OBP is only .300 and is part of the reason why they've lost so many games.

 

You're right. Quit playing him.

[jersey cubs fan]

You're right. Quit playing him.

 

This was said by whom?

[neely crenshaw]

I don't think it can be used to predict improved W-L record. It would be nice to think it shows that but after a season and a third of this, it's a pretty good indication that our offense is what it is.

Obviously we will be better this season because of better play by Castro and Rizzo BUT we also lost Soriano, and apparently Scheirholtz somewhere.

We have very streaky guys that will have days like yesterday, and then be bad the rest of the week.

When the day comes and Baez/Bryant prove to be solid dependable bats, we can then deal with guys like Lake and Olt being explosive but inconsistent.

Even Castillo has over half of his hits in 6 games and 24 of his 34K's in 11 other games when he is batting .127, so he is a little all or nothing also.

[Sammy Sofa]

Who are you talking to.

[UK1679666180]

 

You're right. Quit playing him.

 

I'd rather have Dallas McPhearson at 3rd than N. Perez. It's not that Olt is great by any stretch and he might only end up being a backup corner IF'er/PH to remove a LOOGY from the mound but that's better than having Valbuena at 3rd and Barney at 2nd. Let Lake and Olt play until better options are there. With that said, Olt has brought below avg. production at a premium position and I question whether he can be improve greatly from this.

[sneakypower]

Mike Olt is in the bottom-5 for LW runs (on a per-pitch basis, min. 100 PA) against

 

sliders: -6.83 (runs/100)

curves: -4.16

changes: -6.09

 

but he is in the top-20 vs. fastballs, though

 

sorry, but i still don't think he's really very good

[UK1679666180]

The variance in the W/L record compared to the pythag. indicates the Cubs score more in bunches, you'll see more 2 runs or less games and more 7 runs or more. It could also mean that staffs that the opposite. I'd rather take my chances with a team that allows 12, 3, and 3 over a 3 game series than 6, 7, and 5 as far as being able to win 2 of 3.

[UK1679666180]

Mike Olt is in the bottom-5 for LW runs (on a per-pitch basis, min. 100 PA) against

 

sliders: -6.83 (runs/100)

curves: -4.16

changes: -6.09

 

but he is in the top-20 vs. fastballs, though

 

sorry, but i still don't think he's really very good

 

He's not but he's a better IF option than Barney, even with the defensive upgrade (both at 2B and 3B).

[neely crenshaw]

Olt's .257 OB% is terrible but to say he's the problem is crazy.

First he has all of 91 at bats.

Then, he does also sport a .719 ops-not great but better than Castillo, Valbuena, Schierholtz, Kalish, Sweeney, Ruggiano and only slightly behind Lake and Bonifacio.

The only two players who you can say have definitely outproduced him are Rizzo and Castro.

He is a young player getting his first real shot at the bigs, he is also on an upswing in May, with all of his categories improving:

BA +.23,

ob% +.45

SLG. +.85

OPS +.130

Certainly it's not where we hoped he'd be, but at least it starting to head in that direction.

 

Even at his current rate he won't be far off of what Rizzo posted last season (with lower ob%, but higher slugging).