2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

My final guess is they are going to take Pentecost.

[jersey cubs fan]

CJ projects as a #4? This is news to me. There are a lot more who say he can be #2 than a #4.

 

And probably just as many who say reliever.

 

Also, it says a three or four.

[Guest]

CJ projects as a #4? This is news to me. There are a lot more who say he can be #2 than a #4.

 

And probably just as many who say reliever.

 

Also, it says a three or four.

 

And those things were being said BEFORE he had arm issues.

[jersey cubs fan]

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales 2m

Hoyer said Cubs' first pick in draft remains a "mystery."

 

 

Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112 2m

Hoyer says #Cubs would like to see Bryant dominate a little while longer at AA level

 

 

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales 3m

Hoyer said promotion for Bryant still in the distance.

[ScrubMD]

I have a really good feeling about Pentecost. It'd be great if he'd sign at a significant underslot.

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112: Hoyer also says #Cubs likely will be pitching heavy in draft but 4th pick overall is a mystery

[nathaniel hornblower]

Law posted his 3rd mock draft:

 

1. Aiken

2 Rodon

3. Kolek

 

4:

Michael Conforto

SCHOOL: Oregon State

HT: 6-1WT: 215

POS: OF

Analysis: If Brady Aiken or Carlos Rodon gets to them, that's whom they will take. I don't get the sense right now that they would take Nick Gordon or the injured Jeff Hoffman, and I think Max Pentecost is a severe long shot here. Kyle Freeland and Aaron Nola are possibilities.

The Cubs are also one of several teams hoping for California prep righty Jack Flaherty with a later pick.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

barf barf barf

[A New Era]

What really separates someone like Touki Toussaint from Aiken and Kolek? If we were going to go HS pitcher I'm in his camp. Whoever picks him in the teens is going to get an amazing player. Why not grab someone with his amazing upside if you are gonna try to underslot a little anyway?

[Epsteenie]

What really separates someone like Touki Toussaint from Aiken and Kolek? If we were going to go HS pitcher I'm in his camp. Whoever picks him in the teens is going to get an amazing player. Why not grab someone with his amazing upside if you are gonna try to underslot a little anyway?

 

Toussaint's curveball is something else

[Guest]

What really separates someone like Touki Toussaint from Aiken and Kolek? If we were going to go HS pitcher I'm in his camp. Whoever picks him in the teens is going to get an amazing player. Why not grab someone with his amazing upside if you are gonna try to underslot a little anyway?

 

Aiken has better command, control, three pitches and is lefty. Kolek throws very hard. Toussaint might have electric stuff when it's on but his command has come and gone and he hasn't held his stuff as well. That said, he's a great athlete and should thrive with professional coaching.

[Guest]

BA's revised/final draft board is up.

 

1 Brady Aiken LHP Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego Calif.

2 Tyler Kolek RHP Shepherd (Texas) HS Texas

3 Carlos Rodon LHP North Carolina State N.C.

4 Alex Jackson C/OF Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego Calif.

5 Kyle Freeland LHP Evansville Ind.

6 Nick Gordon SS Olympia HS, Orlando Fla.

7 Aaron Nola RHP Louisiana State La.

8 Michael Conforto OF Oregon State Ore.

9 Trea Turner SS North Carolina State N.C.

10 Max Pentecost C Kennesaw State

 

On Conforto:

 

While other college and high school position players have better all-around tools, Conforto ranks as the best present hitter in the 2014 draft. He has had a monster junior season for Oregon State, building off his first two seasons when he was an All-Freshman selection in 2012 and led the Beavers to Omaha in 2013. Listed at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, Conforto has present strength and above-average bat speed. He has controlled his aggressiveness as a junior, taming a swing that got too big over the summer with Team USA. He’s become a more selective hitter, ranking second in the country in walks and first in on-base percentage while hitting .410 though the first week in May. After hitting 24 homers in his first two seasons combined, Conforto had just five thus far as a junior, giving some evaluators pause because he’s a bat-first player. He has plus raw power and should project to hit 20-25 annually. He also has improved his fringy outfield defense, which is seen as adequate for left field, with average arm strength that doesn’t always play. Conforto has shown playmaking ability with the glove, however, with show-stopper plays in the College World Series last year and key outfield assists in games against rival Oregon.

 

And Pentecost:

 

The Rangers drafted Pentecost as a seventh-rounder in 2011 but couldn’t sign him away from Kennesaw State, due in part to a broken bone in his elbow joint that hampered him in high school. Pentecost’s athleticism stood out then and still does after catching for most of the last three seasons. Scouts consider him an above-average runner period, fairly exceptional for a catcher, and his 6-foot-1, 190-pound body could use more strength to hold up under the rigors of catching 100-plus games. The body and his speed earn him Jason Kendall comparisons. He’s an average receiver with average arm strength with inconsistent throwing mechanics and profiles as an offensive catcher. After two solid seasons as an everyday player, Pentecost took things up a notch last summer, earning Cape Cod League MVP honors by hitting .346/.424/.538. In 2014, he ranked among the national top 10 in batting and hits as the calendar turned to May, and scouts like his line-drive swing, which has improved over the course of his college career. Most scouts see him as a below-average power producer but some see enough feel for hitting for Pentecost to reach 12-15 homers eventually.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Here's the guys the Cubs don't like:

Scouts knew about Kolek as one of the top 2014 targets in Texas when he broke his left arm in a collision at first base in March 2013. The injury ended his junior season, but Kolek kept himself in shape. When he went to the tryouts for Texas’ Area Code Games team in late May, his fastball popped 99. A three-sport star who was drawing interest as a defensive end, Kolek decided to focus exclusively on baseball after the ACG tryout. Kolek then spent the summer establishing himself as the hardest thrower in a draft class full of velocity, and has maintained triple-digit radar gun readings all spring, hitting 100-102 mph regularly. Kolek’s fastball sits 96-98 mph thanks to tremendous strength, coordination in his 6-foot-5, 245-pound body and surprising arm speed. Kolek is very athletic in his delivery has a very long stride, even for his size. Scouts consider Kolek’s consistent top-end velocity unprecedented in the draft era for a high school pitcher. His fastball plays up beyond its pure velocity readings because of its heavy plus life, working downhill with sink. His dense fastball will likely be a groundball-inducing offering when hitters make contact. He throws both a curveball and slider, and the slider is a power pitch in the mid-80s that is his best secondary pitch and shows at least plus potential. His curveball has decent shape but he prefers the slider. He repeats his delivery and throws quality strikes. He has shown a changeup in showcases or in the bullpen but hasn’t needed it in games. Kolek can lose his direction to the plate, working from the far first base side of the rubber and occasionally landing closed. But he has cleaned up his delivery this spring, leading to the consistent velocity. He has performed as expected as a potential top-five pick against small school Texas competition, striking out 60 percent of hitters against 6 percent walks. Scouts struggle think think of a physical comparison for Kolek and that lack of analogous players make scouts wonder how his body will progress as he ages. Strike-throwing ability and the development of his offspeed stuff will be the keys to his development, as he has the chance to develop into a power pitcher that fronts a rotation.

Jackson burst onto the national scene in 2012, when he led California prep players with 17 home runs as a sophomore, then put on a show at the Area Code Games that summer. In the two years since, the Oregon commit has cemented himself as one of the top power bats in the draft class, and a lock to become Rancho Bernardo’s sixth first-round pick in the last 20 years, following in the footsteps of Hank Blalock and Cole Hamels. Jackson’s muscular 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame is packed with present strength. He stands out most for his plus to plus-plus righthanded power potential, but he also has a solid approach and drives the ball with authority to the middle and opposite fields. He has a loose swing, electric bat speed and a knack for making hard contact. Jackson has another premium tool in his arm, which grades out as plus or even plus-plus, depending on which scout you ask. If an organization wants to develop him as a catcher, most scouts think Jackson can become a solid defensive backstop in time, but his receiving and blocking need plenty of work. He’ll have an impact bat no matter where he plays, so a team could fast-track him by putting him in right field, and he also has flashed promise at third base. He’s a below-average runner but not a clogger.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Conforto sounds an awful lot like Tyler Colvin.

[sneakypower]

i still think we secretly love Jackson

[Epsteenie]

i still think we secretly love Jackson

 

I think the Astros and Marlins secretly love him too

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: Aiken, bigger & LH. @EL3tweets: if Aiken & Bundy in same class, both out of HS, who goes first? Reports seem almost identical @MLBDraft

[Guest]

Youngest and oldest players in this draft: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/youngest-and-oldest-players-in-the-2014-draft/

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel:

 

8. Max Pentcost, C, Kennesaw State

6'1/190, R/R, 21.24 on Draft Day

Hit: 60/55+, Power: 45/50, Run: 55/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55+

Scouting Report: Pentecost had a verbal deal with the Texas Rangers out of an Atlanta-area high school for a mid-six figure bonus, but it fell apart after a physical revealed some issues that could become problems in the future. It was a subjective call in the interpretation of the physical and the Rangers regret it now, as Pentecost blossomed in the past year to be a potential top 10 pick. Pentecost was still under the radar last summer until he went to the Cape and won the MVP, hitting .346 with 6 homers in 130 ABs with a tight strike zone and the athleticism to stick behind the plate.

After watching Pentecost this spring, I tabbed him as a guy that would rise leading up to the draft because he was crosschecker/VP/GM friendly. He's an excellent defender with a 55 or 60 arm, 55 speed, an athletic frame and makeup that you can tell is way above average from just watching him, as he sometimes beats runners to first base in his catching gear, backing up throws. After he took infield, I watched Pentecost stand at the edge of the dugout and stare at the plate, waiting like a puppy to get back on the field when it was going to be another 30 minutes before the game started and two scouts told me he had 80 makeup, just as it appeared from how he carried himself.

Pentecost scuffled a bit early in the season but has caught fire at the plate down the stretch with heavy hitters coming in to see him.

Pentecost's loose swing is geared for line drivse, but he has solid average raw power, if he could make some swing tweaks to get to it more in games. His upper half is near perfect in his swing, but the lower half can get a little lazy, though it's been better during his hot streak, hence the increased power numbers. The concern with smaller school hitters is that they can't hit high-end pitching but Pentecost's Cape performance is quelling those fears. Another issue is the sometimes odd development paths that young catchers can take, stalling out and/or regressing when they accumulate the wear and tear from playing a couple seasons with 100+ games behind the dish. Pentecost's makeup, work ethic, athleticism and defensive prowess all limit this concern as well. The main issue is how much his bat and power will play in the big leagues when he's catching everyday, but there seems to be less of that with each passing day.

Take A Step Back: Near-ideal catcher checks almost every box except for plus power, but with every intangible you could ask for. Anything can happen, but all the indicators here are positive and he belongs safely in the top 10.

Projected Role: Above Average Regular, 55-60 FV

 

15. Michael Conforto, LF, Oregon State

6'1/220, L/R, 21.26 on Draft Day

Hit: 55/55+, Power: 55/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 50/50

Scouting Report: Conforto is more athletic than most prospects of his size, with plus bat speed and raw power which likely has to do with his athletic parents: a dad who played linebacker at Penn State and a mom who won a few gold medals in synchronized swimming. Conforto wasn't drafted out of high school but has produced since he stepped foot on campus, hitting the ground runnig thanks to his above average plate discipline. He needs the bat to keep playing because Conforto doesn't offer much on the bases or on defense, with an average at best arm, well below speed and fringy instincts in left that lead to some interesting adventures out there. He may eventually move to first base, but is fine to leave in left field for now.

Conforto's swing was a little long for Team USA and he looked to be guessing at times to get the pitch he wanted, but he's been more relaxed at the plate this spring, with the gaudy numbers to prove it. The 7 homers are a little below expectations, but good development coaches should be able to help him make the adjustments to put it all together in pro ball. The 50 walks and 12 HBPs in 191 AB make you feel better about the lower power output as that's easier to work with than a hacker that was feasting on mistake pitches.

Take A Step Back: An advanced, productive bat with the bat speed and plate discipline to give confidence in a 55 or 60 bat projection and enough to get to his 60 raw power in games. Teams understand more today than ever the value of this sort of player; no margin for error and if he hits his upside, Conforto is still less valuable than many league average bats in the middle of the field. Low risk pick you can feel good about in the short-term but could make you look bad 5 years from now.

Projected Role: Solid Average Regular, 50-55 FV

[Rex Buckingham]

that is thoroughly uninspiring

 

edit: about Conforto

[Guest]

Kiley also said Hoffman has Verlander/Wainwright level talent when healthy which is super depressing.

[Guest]

Kiley also provided his list of guys he knows with top 10 round potential who are tough signs (a lot of the usual schools - Florida, Stanford, UNC, UCLA, Vandy and Virginia): http://sbb.scout.com/story/1408495

 

28. Bukauskas - He asked teams not to be drafted and has said all along the reason he re-classified from the 2015 class was to get to UNC quicker, so teams believe he's truly unsignable at any number and thus he may go undrafted through all 40 rounds despite 1st round talent

52. Flaherty - He has a 1st round signability number but is widely expected to get that money in an over-slot bonus from one of the interested teams in picks 25-40

63. Marshall - He faded down the stretch and apparently won't be an easy sign even if he goes in the top 50 picks as it sounded like he might a month or two in the past. Some scouts turned him in as a 3rd-4th rounder and buzz is building that he'll get to LSU

66. McKinney - He apparently wants over $1 million (the last 7 figure slot is at pick 56) and I have him ranked a little higher than most teams, so the belief is he'll go to Arkansas.

75. Cederoth - Teams are all over the map on him and he wants 7 figures, though I'm guessing someone will pay him.

80. Cease - The Vandy commit will likely get Tommy John surgery and is a 6'1 righty, but he hit 100 mph on some guns early in the year and the belief is he'll get and accept a 7 figure offer, though it isn't a sure thing.

104. Connaughton - I'm told he wants to return to Notre Dame next year to play basketball for his senior year, possibly looking at a pro hoops career even if he signs. That, along with an inconsistent spring understandably scares some teams off.

109. Weisenberg, 163. Carter & 240. Summerville - Three Stanford commits that should get to campus like over 95% of Stanford commits from the last 10 years. All three have either asked scouts not to draft them (Carter) or set numbers at or over $1 million that almost certainly won't get met (Weisenberg & Summerville). I assume another ranked Cardinal commit, #248 Colton Hock, won't be an easy sign either, but I haven't heard that specifically.

127. Bouchard & 153. Nix - Two UCLA commits that flashed top 2-3 round talent over the summer but had rough springs, have high demands and likely get to school.

131. Johnson - His dad is a pitching coach in the Blue Jays system and he doesn't have an advisor, so scouts have little feel for his signability, but after a really rough spring, the expectation is he'll need 7 figures to pass up going to Florida State and that may be steep even for Toronto.

144. Ramirez - He was lightly scouted this spring as he's a solid top 5 round talent but wants 7 figures; he should be an instant impact freshman at N.C. State.

164. Haseley & 200. Smith - Two Florida kids committed to Virginia, another school notorious for getting their recruits on campus. Both are solid top 3-4 round talents that are priced north of that and are expected to get to campus.

249. Alvarado - Puerto Rican is long, lanky and young for the class, but insists on hitting, where he's an ordinary prospect, instead of pitching, where his levers work for him and he's up to 94. He's signed with Nebraska and isn't an easy sign, so if the Huskers staff can get across to him that his future is on the mound, he could be a top 3 round guy in 3 years.

171. Depperman, 173. Guthrie, 182. Baca, 197. Johnson, 207. Smith, 227. Wright, 278, Mahomes - A roundup of seven figure or close-to-it demands likely to land these players, respectively, at North Florida, Florida, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas Tech. Mahomes is an outfielder and pitcher, son of former big leaguer Pat Mahomes and also is signed to play QB for the Red Raiders.

[Cubswin11]

Only round 1 tomorrow, right?

[Guest]

Only round 1 tomorrow, right?

 

And 2.

 

3-10 Friday, 11-40 Saturday.

[neely crenshaw]

Read were if Aiken doesn't go #1 he could fall to 4, which would be nice.

I am dreading the draft quite a bit. I think this pick will send strong messages about how soon we are looking to be competitive. If we draft a HS position player, I don't see us looking to add big talent for at least another year. If we add someone, particularly a pitcher that is near ready, we might be close to making those moves.

 

Obviously even Aiken wouldn't be ready real soon, but he has the makings of a true ace, and right now we absolutely need to develop our own because it will be tough to buy or trade for one.

 

If we are talking Jackson or Gordon, it could 4 to 5 seasons until they are even on the radar to come up. I really wish Hoffman did not get hurt, then their would be 4 pitchers in the mix at the top.

Edited June 4, 2014 by neely crenshaw