2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

you mean you havent heard that he might not be a shortstop or you mean that him not being a shortstop isn't a downside? he better be a [expletive] good ss or cf in the field, because his bat is empty

i've heard/seen that he is currently an impact (as much as one can be) defensive SS. am i wrong?

 

and he doesn't have much power but iirc the hit tool and the speed are really strong.

[imb]

If he was currently an impact SS, you wouldn't have guys putting him in the 10-15 range in this draft. I think there's question about that, and I really am not interested in a guy that gets by hitting a lot of groundballs and running fast.

[Guest]

If you aren't a Turner fan, then don't focus on Turner, he's not the point. Schwarber from IU and Zimmer from San Francisco were both in BA's Top 20 list last fall, both make BA's list for best college tools(Zimmer for Best Athlete and Best OF arm, Schwarber for Best Hitter and Best Power), and both are killing the ball in the all-important first 11 games of the season.

[bukie]

I'd still take Rodon if somehow available at 4, but barring that there isn't enough of a potential gap between any other pitcher and the top hitters in the draft to select a pitcher there.

[Guest]

you mean you havent heard that he might not be a shortstop or you mean that him not being a shortstop isn't a downside? he better be a [expletive] good ss or cf in the field, because his bat is empty

i've heard/seen that he is currently an impact (as much as one can be) defensive SS. am i wrong?

 

and he doesn't have much power but iirc the hit tool and the speed are really strong.

 

He definitely can play SS. The questions surrounding him at SS are based on the fact that last year was his first season at the position, but he's done a good job there in a season + ~10 games.

[imb]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

 

Some guys think he can hit. I've seen plus attached to his hit tool. And he's got good plate discipline.

 

I think there's a sort of fast-guy bias at work. If he's super-fast, he must be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, right?

[imb]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

 

Some guys think he can hit. I've seen plus attached to his hit tool. And he's got good plate discipline.

 

I think there's a sort of fast-guy bias at work. If he's super-fast, he must be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, right?

 

Is 13 doubles in 228 at bats good

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I honestly don't know.

[Guest]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

 

Some guys think he can hit. I've seen plus attached to his hit tool. And he's got good plate discipline.

 

I think there's a sort of fast-guy bias at work. If he's super-fast, he must be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, right?

 

Is 13 doubles in 228 at bats good

 

Why single out just doubles? 7 HR and 3 triples. I don't really know how to gauge college stats but a .553 slg seems like it can't be terrible.

[imb]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

 

Some guys think he can hit. I've seen plus attached to his hit tool. And he's got good plate discipline.

 

I think there's a sort of fast-guy bias at work. If he's super-fast, he must be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, right?

 

Is 13 doubles in 228 at bats good

 

Why single out just doubles? 7 HR and 3 triples. I don't really know how to gauge college stats but a .553 slg seems like it can't be terrible.

 

college home runs only matter to me if you're profiled as a home run hitter. Triples are just flukey speed [expletive] so who cares.

[Guest]

Does anyone think he can hit? He seems like one of those guys with the body to either be a fielder or a hitter, not both.

 

Some guys think he can hit. I've seen plus attached to his hit tool. And he's got good plate discipline.

 

I think there's a sort of fast-guy bias at work. If he's super-fast, he must be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, right?

 

Is 13 doubles in 228 at bats good

 

Why single out just doubles? 7 HR and 3 triples. I don't really know how to gauge college stats but a .553 slg seems like it can't be terrible.

 

college home runs only matter to me if you're profiled as a home run hitter. Triples are just flukey speed [expletive] so who cares.

 

huh?

 

aren't they at least as good as doubles? seems like if anyone's triples were flukey it'd be the slow guys who have them bounce off weird poles or corners of bricks or something

[imb]

yeah i worded that stupidly. What I meant to imply was that if his speed only manifests itself in 3 extra bases over the course of 230 or so at bats, who cares? Like if he was piling up 20 triples a year or something, you're like, sweet, he's fast as hell and driving the ball. Three triples in college baseball could be the result of three mongoloid left fielders that tripped on their own feet. three triples for a guy with 80 speed should be seen as a knock, not a positive.

[Guest]

Ellsbury never had more than 3 3B in 3 different seasons of 220-250 PA at Oregon State.

 

Bourn hit 5 3B his junior year at Houston but 1 his first 2 seasons combined(550 PA). Similar story with Kinsler, although he's more "high SB" than "80 speed".

 

I don't think it's much of a concern.

[imb]

Ellsbury never had more than 3 3B in 3 different seasons of 220-250 PA at Oregon State.

 

Bourn hit 5 3B his junior year at Houston but 1 his first 2 seasons combined(550 PA). Similar story with Kinsler, although he's more "high SB" than "80 speed".

 

I don't think it's much of a concern.

 

OK, good point. I still don't think Turner is anything I would draft over a higher ceiling (or much higher ceiling, depending on how you view him) pitcher just because of "bust rate" concerns, which was my original point.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

if the draft were today (copout) i'm drafting hoffman, rodon, and beede over any position player.

[Bilbo161]

I think at some point there has to be a pitcher (talent wise) who would be good enough for the FO to forgo their normal bat first thinking. The question there is, how good do they have be to look to them?

 

I also agree that the college bats seem to be fewer and not as well thought of. I like Turner. I don't really know much about the others mentioned above. But we do have a ways to go 'till June. I'll enjoy watching this season unfold.

[Gmoney08]

You can't just arbitrarily pass on the best arm in the draft to take the 10th best bat that is clearly a step or three down from the pitcher.

 

Sure I can.

Not an exact match here, but assuming Turner winds up the top bat in the draft, are you taking him or Rodon, if both are there?

 

I'd consider that a *really* tough call. I hate taking pitchers this high that much.

unfortunately our divisional opponents have no qualms about it, and we'll have the fun task of dealing with Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Jameson Taillon, Homer Bailey, Shelby Miller, Robert Stephenson, etc. for a very long time

 

Half of those guys will probably get injured and flame out.

 

 

Off the top of my head it seems so many of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade have had injuries take either multiple years from them or had a major fall in production because of arm trouble.

 

Just off the top of my head...

 

Mark Prior

Johan Santana

Brandon Webb

Jake Peavy

Josh Beckett

Carlos Zambrano

Kerry Wood

Rich Harden

Chris Carpenter

Mark Mulder

Barry Zito

Adam Wainwright

Scott Kazmir

Stephen Strasburg

Matt Harvey

John Lackey

Ben Sheets

Tim Lincecum

DiceK Matszuzaka

Dylan Bundy

 

 

Im sure I left a few guys off as well..

 

Off the top of my head the only guys with sustained ace level quality over many years that I can think of are..

 

Halladay (retired now, probably counts more in the previous era)

Cliff Lee (kind of a late bloomer)

CC Sabathia (seems to be losing it a bit though)

Felix Hernandez (still young but having a hell of a career)

Clayton Kershaw (very young)

Roy Oswalt (hell of a career, I dont think he ever missed to much time)

Justin Verlander (still fairly young but having a hell of a career)

 

 

It just seems crazy to me how many of these top of the line aces have flamed out.

[Guest]

Michael Cederoth has become SDSU's closer; there were quite a few scouts who thought he'd end up a reliever in the big leagues.

 

In his writeup on Tyler Beede's outing against Stanford, Keith Law mentioned that Tyler Kolek is ahead of Hoffman and Beede for him. He also added that UNLV RHP Erick Fedde is at the same conversation as Hoffman and Beede:

 

Toronto drafted Beede in the first round in 2011, but didn't sign him as the two sides disagreed over several aspects of the negotiations, only one part of which was the money. A reader commented to me that he wished the Jays had ponied up for Beede, but that criticism is unfair, as the Jays did offer more than $2 million (well over slot) to him, a very reasonable sum given the kind of prospect he was at that time. He's going to make more than that in June, however, as it's hard for me to imagine that he's not a top-five pick, with only Carlos Rodon and Tyler Kolek clearly ahead of him at this point, assuming (and hoping) everyone stays healthy. Beede should be in every team's mix from pick No. 3 on, in the same decision set as East Carolina's Jeff Hoffman, whom I saw last week, and UNLV's Erick Fedde, who has come out very strongly this spring.

[davell]

I like Turner myself, but I'm with Tangled. I'd take any of Rodon, Hoffman, or Beede over him. And right now, there's not another bat I'd consider at 4, unless Jackson or Gettys show enough to put themselves in the mix. No college bat comes close.

 

If we do take a bat at 4 though, my guess is Shark turns into a couple of top 100 arms.

[Guest]

Jim Callis' weekly draft notebook, touching on Fresno State RHP Jordan Brink, GA prep OF/RHP Michael Gettys and Florida prep 2B Forrest Wall: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140304&content_id=68664646&notebook_id=68664356&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

"Gettys is a head-scratcher," an area scout who attended the game said. "He has the best all-around tools in my area. He has extraordinary bat speed and he can stay in center field, unlike Clint Frazier last year, who I think will play his way onto a corner.

 

"Unfortunately, Gettys is developing a history of not making hard contact. I like the kid and he has good makeup and top-10-overall-pick tools. But I don't think he sniffs the first half of the first round without having more conviction in his bat."

[Guest]

I don't have ESPN Insider but got the gist of the story from the headline: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=mlb-draft&id=1330

 

Elite arms showing more than top bats

 

This weekend we saw the top pitchers in the class all have solid outings, a couple of well-known left-handed pitchers have their worst outings of the year, and the best collegiate bats continue to have inconsistency issues.

[craig]

• N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner had his worst weekend of the year, going 2-for-10 over the three-game series with two walks and no stolen bases in the three-game series. The right-handed hitting infielder has only one extra-base hit this year, and some believe that his lack of power potential could significantly hurt his draft stock.

 

"Speed is great, but it can only do so much," an NL East scout said. "He has such a severe collapse on his back foot that it's tough to imagine he's going to be able to hit for power, particularly when he starts facing guys that are legit pitching prospects like he saw on Saturday (UCLA sophomore Grant Watson). His bat-to-ball skills are very good and I think he can get on base, but if he can't give me some extra-base hits he can't be a top-five pick."

[Guest]

[expletive] it, just take Alex Jackson and be done with it

[craig]

"He has such a severe collapse on his back foot that it's tough to imagine he's going to be able to hit for power"

 

Is that something that can be corrected by coaching? I'd think that bat-to-ball skills reflect innate ability to track pitches and coordinate a swing to hit them. Which is not exactly a coachable skill. Might some team get the good but coach away the bad?