Spring Training Thread

[davell]

TBD. I don't think Castro moving off SS is off the table yet. Having a bat like Baez at 2B would be ridiculous though.

[Guest]

I'm admittedly dumb on team control rules, etc.

 

Does Baez have a shot at 3b this year or is that one of those things where he needs more time in the minors--- to develop at third and to keep him under control longer?

 

The simple version is that they get him for six years, with the first year possibly not counting if you hold him down for part of it. When you want to start that clock is up to you.

 

But he's not close to ready. He was last seen in a competitive environment struggling with A+ and the AFL. He's still two years away, easily.

 

Not two full years, easily. Definitely not.

 

So what's the likely plan position-wise? Moving him to 2B?

 

I imagine 3B is the most likely - he was getting some reps there in the AFL before he got injured. But this season, in the minors, he'll continue to play SS.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He will play a significant amount of 2014 in the majors.

 

Soler, too, most likely.

 

Wanna make a bet? I'll bet my crumpled up Mark Prior scouting report printed out from the 2002 pre-draft Baseball America web page against your hacked site.

 

Neither of them is more than a September call-up in 2014.

 

The last time we saw Javier Baez in competitive games, he was getting punked by A+ pitchers and then the AFL. There are three full levels he has to prove himself at before you think about moving him into the majors.

 

Soler hasn't even seen A+ yet.

[Guest]

He will play a significant amount of 2014 in the majors.

 

Soler, too, most likely.

 

Wanna make a bet? I'll bet my crumpled up Mark Prior scouting report printed out from the 2002 pre-draft Baseball America web page against your hacked site.

 

Neither of them is more than a September call-up in 2014.

 

The last time we saw Javier Baez in competitive games, he was getting punked by A+ pitchers and then the AFL. There are three full levels he has to prove himself at before you think about moving him into the majors.

 

Soler hasn't even seen A+ yet.

I'd bet on either one happening (though not NSBB, no matter how frustrated I am right now). Even though I think both have a better than 50% chance of spending more than september in the bigs in 2014, I think it's probably less than 50% that both spend the time in the majors.

 

Now, I'll make a big bet with you that they combine for at least one month of non-September action with the big league team.

 

Care to take that one?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd bet on either one happening (though not NSBB, no matter how frustrated I am right now). Even though I think both have a better than 50% chance of spending more than september in the bigs in 2014, I think it's probably less than 50% that both spend the time in the majors.

 

Now, I'll make a big bet with you that they combine for at least one month of non-September action with the big league team.

 

Care to take that one?

 

Sure. Winner gets to pick a new username for the loser for six months?

[Guest]

Baez's swing reminds me of Sheffield's so much.

 

What a talent.

[Guest]

I'm admittedly dumb on team control rules, etc.

 

Does Baez have a shot at 3b this year or is that one of those things where he needs more time in the minors--- to develop at third and to keep him under control longer?

 

The simple version is that they get him for six years, with the first year possibly not counting if you hold him down for part of it. When you want to start that clock is up to you.

 

But he's not close to ready. He was last seen in a competitive environment struggling with A+ and the AFL. He's still two years away, easily.

 

I'd put money on him being a September callup this year. He's going to be on the full team for good after whatever that date is in May 2014 that gives us an extra year of control.

 

I feel like this (and Tim's take, to some extent) is optimistic. He needs to show things at more advanced levels that he is anything but a sure thing to show. That's not to say it won't happen, but I think it's far from being a certainty (or even likely).

[Guest]

He will play a significant amount of 2014 in the majors.

 

Soler, too, most likely.

 

Wanna make a bet? I'll bet my crumpled up Mark Prior scouting report printed out from the 2002 pre-draft Baseball America web page against your hacked site.

 

Neither of them is more than a September call-up in 2014.

 

The last time we saw Javier Baez in competitive games, he was getting punked by A+ pitchers and then the AFL. There are three full levels he has to prove himself at before you think about moving him into the majors.

 

Soler hasn't even seen A+ yet.

 

Two, not three. The third isn't a necessity.

 

And Soler hasn't seen A+ because they're being conservative because he hadn't played competitive baseball in however long. With his advanced approach combined with his "tools" I think he will have no problem progressing quickly.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Two, not three. The third isn't a necessity.

 

And Soler hasn't seen A+ because they're being conservative because he hadn't played competitive baseball in however long. With his advanced approach combined with his "tools" I think he will have no problem progressing quickly.

 

Planning on skipping him a level doesn't mean he's not that many levels away. Three. And what makes you think this front office doesn't view AAA as a necessary step?

 

They were conservative with Soler last year. They kept Baez in extended spring training last year when people were clamoring for A+ or even AA. Rizzo spent half the year dominating Iowa, a level he had already dominated once.

 

Noticing a pattern?

 

This front office has laid out very specifically how they intend to develop prospects like Baez. They want him to "check the boxes" of improvement in very specific areas. Seeing as how "have jaw-dropping power" was already checked off, nothing we've seen in the spring has changed anything for their plan for him. He needs to show improved plate discipline, and he's not getting promoted, let alone rushed, until he does.

[Guest]

Two, not three. The third isn't a necessity.

 

And Soler hasn't seen A+ because they're being conservative because he hadn't played competitive baseball in however long. With his advanced approach combined with his "tools" I think he will have no problem progressing quickly.

 

Planning on skipping him a level doesn't mean he's not that many levels away. Three. And what makes you think this front office doesn't view AAA as a necessary step?

 

They were conservative with Soler last year. They kept Baez in extended spring training last year when people were clamoring for A+ or even AA. Rizzo spent half the year dominating Iowa, a level he had already dominated once.

 

Noticing a pattern?

 

This front office has laid out very specifically how they intend to develop prospects like Baez. They want him to "check the boxes" of improvement in very specific areas. Seeing as how "have jaw-dropping power" was already checked off, nothing we've seen in the spring has changed anything for their plan for him. He needs to show improved plate discipline, and he's not getting promoted, let alone rushed, until he does.

 

You're ignoring some of the signs of a possible willingness to promote aggressively with Baez. Including his presence at the rookie camp thing and his invitation to big league camp this year at barely 20 years old. If he progresses rapidly, I don't see him being held back for the sake of being held back. His performance will decide that.

 

Rizzo went to AAA last year because he had adjustments to make to get big league ready and for service time reasons, not necessarily because of any general stance that x amount of PAs in AAA are a necessity (despite what they said in the media).

[USSoccer]

Two, not three. The third isn't a necessity.

 

And Soler hasn't seen A+ because they're being conservative because he hadn't played competitive baseball in however long. With his advanced approach combined with his "tools" I think he will have no problem progressing quickly.

 

Planning on skipping him a level doesn't mean he's not that many levels away. Three. And what makes you think this front office doesn't view AAA as a necessary step?

 

They were conservative with Soler last year. They kept Baez in extended spring training last year when people were clamoring for A+ or even AA. Rizzo spent half the year dominating Iowa, a level he had already dominated once.

 

Noticing a pattern?

 

This front office has laid out very specifically how they intend to develop prospects like Baez. They want him to "check the boxes" of improvement in very specific areas. Seeing as how "have jaw-dropping power" was already checked off, nothing we've seen in the spring has changed anything for their plan for him. He needs to show improved plate discipline, and he's not getting promoted, let alone rushed, until he does.

 

Kyle, if the guy beats the crap out of high A early in the year, he'll be in AA by July. If he beats the crap out of that, we'll see him in the fall.

[USSoccer]

I'm admittedly dumb on team control rules, etc.

 

Does Baez have a shot at 3b this year or is that one of those things where he needs more time in the minors--- to develop at third and to keep him under control longer?

 

The simple version is that they get him for six years, with the first year possibly not counting if you hold him down for part of it. When you want to start that clock is up to you.

 

But he's not close to ready. He was last seen in a competitive environment struggling with A+ and the AFL. He's still two years away, easily.

 

I'd put money on him being a September callup this year. He's going to be on the full team for good after whatever that date is in May 2014 that gives us an extra year of control.

 

I feel like this (and Tim's take, to some extent) is optimistic. He needs to show things at more advanced levels that he is anything but a sure thing to show. That's not to say it won't happen, but I think it's far from being a certainty (or even likely).

 

I think his is the kind of personality that will take the fact that he's dongwhipped so far in Spring Training and exceed expectations as far as the areas of his game that need work.

[Guest]

I'm with Kyle here, at least to a certain extent. I won't be surprised at all if either of Baez or Soler spend a significant amount of 2014 on the big league roster, but I don't see that as the overwhelmingly likely outcome, especially for Baez.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're ignoring some of the signs of a possible willingness to promote aggressively with Baez. Including his presence at the rookie camp thing and his invitation to big league camp this year at barely 20 years old. If he progresses rapidly, I don't see him being held back for the sake of being held back. His performance will decide that.

 

I'll believe it when I see it. I just think they want him to have a couple years of big league camps under his belt.

 

Sure, if he progresses rapidly he won't be held back. But he's given us nothing to think that he still doesn't have major approach issues.

 

Rizzo went to AAA last year because he had adjustments to make to get big league ready and for service time reasons, not necessarily because of any general stance that x amount of PAs in AAA are a necessity (despite what they said in the media).

 

Pedroia got 600+ AAA plate appearances before he got called up.

Ellsbury got 400+ AAA PAs before being called up.

 

I don't think they are lying when they say how important they consider AAA to be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle, if the guy beats the crap out of high A early in the year, he'll be in AA by July. If he beats the crap out of that, we'll see him in the fall.

 

What has he done to make you think he's capable of that doing that to AA?

[Guest]

Kyle, if the guy beats the crap out of high A early in the year, he'll be in AA by July. If he beats the crap out of that, we'll see him in the fall.

 

What has he done to make you think he's capable of that doing that to AA?

1) Put a normal BABIP on his AFL resume.

 

2) What he's doing to some legit pitchers this spring.

 

Heck, just combine the numbers from those two into about 100 PA of advanced pitching and he's showing quite a bit that he could handle AA at some point this year.

[USSoccer]

Kyle, if the guy beats the crap out of high A early in the year, he'll be in AA by July. If he beats the crap out of that, we'll see him in the fall.

 

What has he done to make you think he's capable of that doing that to AA?

 

His play last year until he went to the Florida Monsoon League and played every 6 days, combined with this Spring, combined with the fact that he's the kind of [expletive] that will probably not allow himself to fail, and exceed our expectations via his offensive output.

 

At the end of the day, it's just an opinion/feeling. I could be wrong.

[davell]

Soler was assigned to Daytona today. Baez to minor league camp. That tells me they're at least considering starting Baez somewhere other than Daytona.

[Guest]

I'm with Kyle here, at least to a certain extent. I won't be surprised at all if either of Baez or Soler spend a significant amount of 2014 on the big league roster, but I don't see that as the overwhelmingly likely outcome, especially for Baez.

What I was willing to bet upon was that I think it's a better than 50% chance that one of the two spends a month of "real" time in the bigs in 2014.

 

The biggest reasons to hesitate (to me) are:

 

1) it's generally safer to assume that prospects won't meet expectations

2) this regime does seem to have a tendency to be conservative with promotions

3) we'll hopefully be competitive in 2014 and they may not want to give the time to rookies unless they are REALLY ready

 

Though, #3 can work both ways. If they have a player with an injury or performance issues, they may be more aggressive with these guys if they're in the hunt, too.

[Guest]

Soler was assigned to Daytona today. Baez to minor league camp. That tells me they're at least considering starting Baez somewhere other than Daytona.

Yeah, during the course of this argument I was wondering if his AFL performance (BABIP issues aside) plus this spring has convinced them to put Javy in AA.

[Guest]

Two, not three. The third isn't a necessity.

 

And Soler hasn't seen A+ because they're being conservative because he hadn't played competitive baseball in however long. With his advanced approach combined with his "tools" I think he will have no problem progressing quickly.

 

Planning on skipping him a level doesn't mean he's not that many levels away. Three. And what makes you think this front office doesn't view AAA as a necessary step?

 

They were conservative with Soler last year. They kept Baez in extended spring training last year when people were clamoring for A+ or even AA. Rizzo spent half the year dominating Iowa, a level he had already dominated once.

 

Noticing a pattern?

 

This front office has laid out very specifically how they intend to develop prospects like Baez. They want him to "check the boxes" of improvement in very specific areas. Seeing as how "have jaw-dropping power" was already checked off, nothing we've seen in the spring has changed anything for their plan for him. He needs to show improved plate discipline, and he's not getting promoted, let alone rushed, until he does.

 

You probably want to ignore those people.

 

And while they kept Baez at extended spring training while I thought he should have been at Peoria, they also bumped him up to Daytona sooner than I thought they should. Not all players are the same and you can't apply a one-size-fits-all approach to all prospects with this regime - Jackson and Vitters weren't on Rizzo's promotion schedule (neither of them should have made it to Chicago last season if they were).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle, if the guy beats the crap out of high A early in the year, he'll be in AA by July. If he beats the crap out of that, we'll see him in the fall.

 

What has he done to make you think he's capable of that doing that to AA?

1) Put a normal BABIP on his AFL resume.

 

2) What he's doing to some legit pitchers this spring.

 

Heck, just combine the numbers from those two into about 100 PA of advanced pitching and he's showing quite a bit that he could handle AA at some point this year.

 

1) Can I put a normal HR/FB% on it too?

 

But OK, Baez had 59 plate appearances in the AFL. He struck out 14 times (23.7%) and walked an Early Vittersian twice in 59 PAs (3.4%). He went 9-for-39 on balls in play.

 

So if we give him four more singles, that gives him a .333 BABIP.

 

That brings his AFL line up to 281/305/526 line. So while the power is impressive, he's still got contact issues and major approach problems.

 

2) Spring training stats don't mean anything even when they are fun and exciting.

[davell]

Thats fine Kyle. But you can't ignore Soler was assigned to Daytona, while Baez was sent to minor league camp. That makes it a possibility he's in AA to start the year, making it much more likely he could make more than a token appearance in yhe majors in 2014. And again, no way we truly know, but it seems as if he's worked counts this spring, to some degree. Whether he can take 50 walks in a year is immaterial if he can put up .800+ OPS's without it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Thats fine Kyle. But you can't ignore Soler was assigned to Daytona, while Baez was sent to minor league camp. That makes it a possibility he's in AA to start the year, making it much more likely he could make more than a token appearance in yhe majors in 2014. And again, no way we truly know, but it seems as if he's worked counts this spring, to some degree. Whether he can take 50 walks in a year is immaterial if he can put up .800+ OPS's without it.

 

I can totally ignore that. There are tons of reasons why that might be the case.

 

You can't read anything into early spring assignments. They could assign him to Iowa and I'd still expect him to play his first game this season for Daytona.

 

In the long run, sure, it's fine if he can produce without the walks. But you don't rush him to the majors at 20 before you find out whether you can force him to learn to draw walks. Because why settle for a SLG-heavy .800 OPS when he's got 1.000 OPS potential?

 

 

Edit: Oh yeah, Arizona Phil explained this yesterday. Players on the 40-man can only be assigned to the disabled list of the minor league to which they were assigned after 16 days before Opening Day. So whatever level Soler was assigned to, he would have to go to that level's roster and disabled list to start the season if he were hurt after yesterday.

 

Since Baez is not on the 40-man, there's no such restriction and no pressure to assign him to any particular level.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1) it's generally safer to assume that prospects won't meet expectations

2) this regime does seem to have a tendency to be conservative with promotions

3) we'll hopefully be competitive in 2014 and they may not want to give the time to rookies unless they are REALLY ready

 

I'm not trying to say he won't meet expectations. It just seems to me that expectations have exploded into something pretty crazy overnight.

 

If he were on a normal prospect development curve, he'd spend 2013 at A+, 2014 at AA, 2015 at AAA and make his MLB debut sometime in late 2015 or early 2016.

 

I'm willing to allow for the possibility that he's such an elite talent he will push that forward by an entire year. But people are going completely nuts and expecting him to cut the time to the majors into a small fraction of what it would normally be.