Spring Training Thread

[Guest]

1) it's generally safer to assume that prospects won't meet expectations

2) this regime does seem to have a tendency to be conservative with promotions

3) we'll hopefully be competitive in 2014 and they may not want to give the time to rookies unless they are REALLY ready

 

I'm not trying to say he won't meet expectations. It just seems to me that expectations have exploded into something pretty crazy overnight.

 

If he were on a normal prospect development curve, he'd spend 2013 at A+, 2014 at AA, 2015 at AAA and make his MLB debut sometime in late 2015 or early 2016.

 

I'm willing to allow for the possibility that he's such an elite talent he will push that forward by an entire year. But people are going completely nuts and expecting him to cut the time to the majors into a small fraction of what it would normally be.

 

Most top-50 prospects don't spend full seasons at each stop.

[Guest]

1) it's generally safer to assume that prospects won't meet expectations

2) this regime does seem to have a tendency to be conservative with promotions

3) we'll hopefully be competitive in 2014 and they may not want to give the time to rookies unless they are REALLY ready

 

I'm not trying to say he won't meet expectations. It just seems to me that expectations have exploded into something pretty crazy overnight.

 

If he were on a normal prospect development curve, he'd spend 2013 at A+, 2014 at AA, 2015 at AAA and make his MLB debut sometime in late 2015 or early 2016.

 

I'm willing to allow for the possibility that he's such an elite talent he will push that forward by an entire year. But people are going completely nuts and expecting him to cut the time to the majors into a small fraction of what it would normally be.

See, this is the trouble arguing with you...

 

I know you're familiar with the typical progression for top prospects vs normal guys. But since it doesn't suit your argument, you're just ignoring that right now.

 

Pick a different argument and I'm quite certain you'd be pointing it out, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wait.

 

I said "If Baez were a normal prospect, he'd do X. But he's elite, so I think it's possible he'll do Y, but Z is crazybuckets."

 

And that means that I'm not acknowledging that he's not a normal prospect and won't X?

 

I not only acknowledged it, the entire post is about it. It's a two-part post about what a normal prospect would do vs. what Baez might do, implicitly acknowledging he's not a normal prospect on a normal plan.

[davell]

Kyle's true conflict is with his doom boner. Whatever decision on Javy is made, the doom boner will immediately voice its opinion as to why its wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle's true conflict is with his doom boner. Whatever decision on Javy is made, the doom boner will immediately voice its opinion as to why its wrong.

 

I'm arguing that they should do exactly what they've said they will do and haven't given any real indication that they won't do. That's not exactly doom bonerish.

[Guest]

Wait.

 

I said "If Baez were a normal prospect, he'd do X. But he's elite, so I think it's possible he'll do Y, but Z is crazybuckets."

 

And that means that I'm not acknowledging that he's not a normal prospect and won't X?

 

I not only acknowledged it, the entire post is about it. It's a two-part post about what a normal prospect would do vs. what Baez might do, implicitly acknowledging he's not a normal prospect on a normal plan.

Apologies...I read your post incorrectly.

 

By pulling his timetable up by a full year, you acknowledge that late 2014 is a realistic timetable for Javy...yet you're arguing that him being up sometime in 2014 is unrealistic.

 

I'm confused.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By pulling his timetable up by a full year, you acknowledge that late 2014 is a realistic timetable for Javy...yet you're arguing that him being up sometime in 2014 is unrealistic.

 

I'm confused.

 

I think September 2014 is a best-case scenario., and that's as a September "let him hang out in the clubhouse for the last week or two" call-up.

[Guest]

By pulling his timetable up by a full year, you acknowledge that late 2014 is a realistic timetable for Javy...yet you're arguing that him being up sometime in 2014 is unrealistic.

 

I'm confused.

 

I think September 2014 is a best-case scenario., and that's as a September "let him hang out in the clubhouse for the last week or two" call-up.

 

The best case scenario for a top-20 prospect starting at high-A this season is two weeks in the big leagues in September of next year?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By pulling his timetable up by a full year, you acknowledge that late 2014 is a realistic timetable for Javy...yet you're arguing that him being up sometime in 2014 is unrealistic.

 

I'm confused.

 

I think September 2014 is a best-case scenario., and that's as a September "let him hang out in the clubhouse for the last week or two" call-up.

 

The best case scenario for a top-20 prospect starting at high-A this season is two weeks in the big leagues in September of next year?

 

In the specific case of this prospect and this front office? Yes.

[Sammy Sofa]

By pulling his timetable up by a full year, you acknowledge that late 2014 is a realistic timetable for Javy...yet you're arguing that him being up sometime in 2014 is unrealistic.

 

I'm confused.

 

I think September 2014 is a best-case scenario., and that's as a September "let him hang out in the clubhouse for the last week or two" call-up.

 

The best case scenario for a top-20 prospect starting at high-A this season is two weeks in the big leagues in September of next year?

 

In the specific case of this prospect and this front office? Yes.

 

Well, that's ridiculous.

[Guest]

Soler was assigned to Daytona today. Baez to minor league camp. That tells me they're at least considering starting Baez somewhere other than Daytona.

Yeah, during the course of this argument I was wondering if his AFL performance (BABIP issues aside) plus this spring has convinced them to put Javy in AA.

 

How would his AFL performance look with neutral BABIP luck?

 

EDIT - NM, just saw Kyle's post.

Edited March 18, 2013 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Soler was assigned to Daytona today. Baez to minor league camp. That tells me they're at least considering starting Baez somewhere other than Daytona.

Yeah, during the course of this argument I was wondering if his AFL performance (BABIP issues aside) plus this spring has convinced them to put Javy in AA.

 

How would his AFL performance look with neutral BABIP luck?

 

I've got it at 281/305/526 with a .333 BABIP. Still a 23.7% K rate and a 3.4% BB rate.

 

 

Unrelated:

 

Ian Stewart will get another MRI on his quad and Sveum apparently said he doesn't know if Stewart will have enough time now to make the team.

 

They can't cut him for medical reasons, so I'm not sure what they mean by that.

[Guest]

Soler was assigned to Daytona today. Baez to minor league camp. That tells me they're at least considering starting Baez somewhere other than Daytona.

Yeah, during the course of this argument I was wondering if his AFL performance (BABIP issues aside) plus this spring has convinced them to put Javy in AA.

 

How would his AFL performance look with neutral BABIP luck?

 

I've got it at 281/305/526 with a .333 BABIP. Still a 23.7% K rate and a 3.4% BB rate.

 

 

Unrelated:

 

Ian Stewart will get another MRI on his quad and Sveum apparently said he doesn't know if Stewart will have enough time now to make the team.

 

They can't cut him for medical reasons, so I'm not sure what they mean by that.

 

Probably Sveum just saying stuff.

[Guest]

That could just be implying that they'll start Stewart on the DL. Or cut him.

 

Either way

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I guess it probably just means DL.

 

Objectively, I know they can't afford to cut him. Even if Valbuena is the starting 3b, then Stewart probably has a role on the bench. But dang would I enjoy it.

[Guest]

kyle, why don't you troll the blackhawks thread anymore?

[SABR Gamer]

Pure sex...

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25752323&topic_id=&c_id=chc&tcid=vpp_copy_25752323&v=3

 

Dear lord.

 

That swing is just...wow. My god I hope he doesn't bust, he could be MVP good.

[biittner77]

Does starting Baez at AA remind anyone else of the Corey Patterson experience of being promoted too quickly through levels where he hadn't had sustained success? Baez is better than Patterson but having him skip a level based on a few AFL and ST plate appearances seems like a bad idea. If they do start him at AA, it seems like it's an attempt to skirt their own policy of "One season at every level". Not a big fan if that is even a consideration.

[jumbo]

Does starting Baez at AA remind anyone else of the Corey Patterson experience of being promoted too quickly through levels where he hadn't had sustained success? Baez is better than Patterson but having him skip a level based on a few AFL and ST plate appearances seems like a bad idea. If they do start him at AA, it seems like it's an attempt to skirt their own policy of "One season at every level". Not a big fan if that is even a consideration.

 

I'd be stunned if he started anywhere but Daytona. He shredded Peoria, but didn't continue when he moved up after Alcantara's injury. I think had the injury not happened he would have stayed in Peoria until the end of the year, but either way, I don't see him going straight to AA.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

kyle, why don't you troll the blackhawks thread anymore?

 

I never did. I trolled the Bulls thread.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does starting Baez at AA remind anyone else of the Corey Patterson experience of being promoted too quickly through levels where he hadn't had sustained success? Baez is better than Patterson but having him skip a level based on a few AFL and ST plate appearances seems like a bad idea. If they do start him at AA, it seems like it's an attempt to skirt their own policy of "One season at every level". Not a big fan if that is even a consideration.

 

Baez isn't better than Patterson was at this age.

 

In his age 19 season, Patterson hit 320/358/592 for a .949 OPS in the Midwest League, with 33 steals, and after the season was ranked as baseball's No. 3 prospect by Baseball America.

 

They are/were very similar prospects at this point in their development. Patterson had more speed and better defensive projection (not that Baez's defensive projection is bad. Just that Patterson's was better), while Baez has more power, but both are at least good at what the other is great at.

 

I'm hoping for and expecting much better results from Baez, for a lot of reasons. But at this point in their development, Patterson was higher-regarded.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Baker was only throwing 85 yesterday. Concern, or too early in his spring?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

He shredded Peoria, but didn't continue when he moved up

I'd be more wary of it had he been able to play every day instead of having all of those games called because of Rainstorm Isaac.

[Guest]

Does starting Baez at AA remind anyone else of the Corey Patterson experience of being promoted too quickly through levels where he hadn't had sustained success? Baez is better than Patterson but having him skip a level based on a few AFL and ST plate appearances seems like a bad idea. If they do start him at AA, it seems like it's an attempt to skirt their own policy of "One season at every level". Not a big fan if that is even a consideration.

 

I'd be stunned if he started anywhere but Daytona. He shredded Peoria, but didn't continue when he moved up after Alcantara's injury. I think had the injury not happened he would have stayed in Peoria until the end of the year, but either way, I don't see him going straight to AA.

 

I doubt Alcantara's injury was the reason Baez was promoted. (An opportunity? Sure.) Epstein and Hoyer had already proven once that they wouldn't promote Baez until they felt he was ready.

[davell]

Baker was only throwing 85 yesterday. Concern, or too early in his spring?

Too early.