Spring Training Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes, the battle over the 25th man spot will be the wobbly block that brings down the mighty Jenga of the Thoyersetin regime.

 

Their utter lack of ambition will do that. This part is just an annoying symptom of the disease.

 

Plus, this is the 24th roster spot, unless Sappelt really is already in.

[XZero771679666304]

Aren't we supposed to not have to worry about the better players being left off the roster for stupid reasons anymore?

 

Yes, but to be honest I felt a lot more strongly about Sappelt deserving a big league roster spot at this time last year. And I think the question of who's going to backup 1B is an issue that may play a role in deciding the final roster spot(s), for right or wrong.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, you're doing this again.

[Tracer Bullet]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

Resist the urge

[Sammy Sofa]

Good point.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.

[Guest]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.

Last offseason as in Oct 11 or Oct 12?

 

We've added lots of pieces since 10/11 and several more than you credit on the pitching side since 10/12.

 

Not to mention that we could go into that offseason with Baez + Soler knocking on the door, Vizcaino ready for full duty and even someone like Paniagua being close.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.

Last offseason as in Oct 11 or Oct 12?

 

We've added lots of pieces since 10/11 and several more than you credit on the pitching side since 10/12.

 

Not to mention that we could go into that offseason with Baez + Soler knocking on the door, Vizcaino ready for full duty and even someone like Paniagua being close.

 

From Oct. 2012 to Oct. 2013.

 

Vizcaino's the only guy on that list likely to make a 2014 impact.

 

 

We added Fujikawa for 2014, but will be losing Marmol. Wash. He and Villanueva are all I didn't mention for pitchers, I'm pretty sure.

[Guest]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.

Last offseason as in Oct 11 or Oct 12?

 

We've added lots of pieces since 10/11 and several more than you credit on the pitching side since 10/12.

 

Not to mention that we could go into that offseason with Baez + Soler knocking on the door, Vizcaino ready for full duty and even someone like Paniagua being close.

 

From Oct. 2012 to Oct. 2013.

 

Vizcaino's the only guy on that list likely to make a 2014 impact.

 

 

We added Fujikawa for 2014, but will be losing Marmol. Wash. He and Villanueva are all I didn't mention for pitchers, I'm pretty sure.

huh, I could have sworn that one of Feldman or Baker was on a two year deal. Oh well, by your definition, count on getting fungible assets for one or both of those guys by the end of the year. Given contract status + cost combined with projected performance, Fujikawa > Marmol.

 

He's a minor piece, but Hairston will still be around next year (or traded for something usable).

 

As for minor leaguers... I'd guess that Baez and Soler both play in the majors in 2014, though probably not until summer. If what I'm hearing about Paniagua is accurate, he could blow up and arrive before then. Zych is likely to be in the pen during 2014. Vizcaino will certainly have an impact that year, if healthy.

[Guest]

Oh, you're doing this again.

 

I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.

Last offseason as in Oct 11 or Oct 12?

 

We've added lots of pieces since 10/11 and several more than you credit on the pitching side since 10/12.

 

Not to mention that we could go into that offseason with Baez + Soler knocking on the door, Vizcaino ready for full duty and even someone like Paniagua being close.

 

From Oct. 2012 to Oct. 2013.

 

Vizcaino's the only guy on that list likely to make a 2014 impact.

 

 

We added Fujikawa for 2014, but will be losing Marmol. Wash. He and Villanueva are all I didn't mention for pitchers, I'm pretty sure.

huh, I could have sworn that one of Feldman or Baker was on a two year deal. Oh well, by your definition, count on getting fungible assets for one or both of those guys by the end of the year. Given contract status + cost combined with projected performance, Fujikawa > Marmol.

 

He's a minor piece, but Hairston will still be around next year (or traded for something usable).

 

As for minor leaguers... I'd guess that Baez and Soler both play in the majors in 2014, though probably not until summer. If what I'm hearing about Paniagua is accurate, he could blow up and arrive before then. Zych is likely to be in the pen during 2014. Vizcaino will certainly have an impact that year, if healthy.

 

I don't think that's anywhere near a certainty, if it's even true...especially with post moratorium on shake offs Marmol (even from a value perspective... I guess you do cover yourself here by saying "projected" performance, but I am not all that willing to trust the projections on him before he has thrown a pitch).

 

I am very excited to see what Paniagua does, though, and see him as a great candidate to blow up.

Edited March 5, 2013 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

huh, I could have sworn that one of Feldman or Baker was on a two year deal. Oh well, by your definition, count on getting fungible assets for one or both of those guys by the end of the year.

 

I'll pencil those assets in right next to the near-ready starting pitcher we got for Garza last year.

 

Given contract status + cost combined with projected performance, Fujikawa > Marmol.

 

We'll see. They project pretty similar to me. I guess we do save a couple of million, but that only matters if we plan on using it.

 

He's a minor piece, but Hairston will still be around next year (or traded for something usable).

 

That's a good point.

 

As for minor leaguers... I'd guess that Baez and Soler both play in the majors in 2014, though probably not until summer. If what I'm hearing about Paniagua is accurate, he could blow up and arrive before then. Zych is likely to be in the pen during 2014. Vizcaino will certainly have an impact that year, if healthy.

 

We're talking *next* season for guys are are going to A-ball. If Baez and Soler appear in 2014, it'll be as cups of coffee in September, and I doubt even that.

 

Zych will probably be in the bullpen in 2014, but he needs to take a step forward before we're sure that's a good thing.

 

 

I'm not saying we'll definitely be worse, but it's definitely within the normal margin of error for the projection at this point. We haven't had a chance for any attrition during the season yet, and we project as barely better.

[Guest]

So if Jackson doesn't improve upon Garza's performance and reliability, none of our current pre-prime pre-FA players take expected steps forward, none of our current prospects take hold of an MLB spot, none of our pending free agents are extended or traded(last year value was extracted from Maholm, Johnson, Dempster, and Soto), and Hairston, Schierholtz, and Villanueva all come down with terminal illnesses before 2014, we might be worse going into next offseason than we were going into this past offseason. Cool.

[XZero771679666304]

So if Jackson doesn't improve upon Garza's performance and reliability, none of our current pre-prime pre-FA players take expected steps forward, none of our current prospects take hold of an MLB spot, none of our pending free agents are extended or traded(last year value was extracted from Maholm, Johnson, Dempster, and Soto), and Hairston, Schierholtz, and Villanueva all come down with terminal illnesses before 2014, we might be worse going into next offseason than we were going into this past offseason. Cool.

 

 

Well, you gotta be a realist.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So if Jackson doesn't improve upon Garza's performance and reliability none of our current prospects take hold of an MLB spot, none of our pending free agents are extended or traded(last year value was extracted from Maholm, Johnson, Dempster, and Soto), and Hairston, Schierholtz, and Villanueva all come down with terminal illnesses before 2014, we might be worse going into next offseason than we were going into this past offseason. Cool.

 

Yes. I know it's crazy, but sometimes things don't go according to plan for this franchise.

 

If Jackson and Garza is a wash, if Brett Jackson's new swing isn't magic, if we don't extend any players, and Hairston, Schierholtz and Villanueva are all of negligible value, then we might be worse. I don't think any of those "ifs" are all that unlikely.

 

And we didn't get anything for the following season from those trades. I didn't say the overall organization wouldn't be better by then. I said the immediate MLB short-term might not be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Look at it this way, heading into an offseason.

 

post-2012 versions of these players:

 

Soriano/????/DeJesus

????/Castro/Barney/Rizzo

Castillo

Garza/Samardzija/Wood

Marmol/Russell/abunchofguys

 

post-2013 version of these players:

 

Soriano/DeJesus/Hairston

????/Castro/Barney/Rizzo

Castillo

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/Vizcaino

Fujikawa/Russell/Villanueva/abunchofguys

 

How much better do you think the second group is? How big of a setback would it really take during the season to have the 2013 version be worse?

 

Once you get to 2015, then you can start plugging in guys like Baez or Soler and the waves of talent start to kick in, but until then I don't see anyone past Vizcaino that I think you can safely plug in to a spot and feel good about it. We've entered the dead space between the Rizzo/Castro generation and the Soler/Baez/Almora generation.

[Guest]

So to reiterate, if Jackson(3.5 WAR, 200 IP per year last 3 years) is not an improvement on Garza(2.4 WAR, 133 IP per year last 3 years), and Villanueva doesn't meet his projection of being league average, and Schierholtz doesn't meet his projection of being league average, and Hairston doesn't meet his projection of being league average, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Feldman, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Baker, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from DeJesus, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Marmol, and a prospect like Jackson, Vitters, or Lake don't take hold of an MLB spot, and neither of Castro or Rizzo break out, we might be worse off in October 2013 than October 2012. Cool.

[Sammy Sofa]

I know we really shouldn't engage him at all, but this is pretty wonderful.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So to reiterate, if Jackson(3.5 WAR, 200 IP per year last 3 years) is not an improvement on Garza(2.4 WAR, 133 IP per year last 3 years)

 

Yes. Two pitchers that are 1 win apart, and only because of the IP difference? I consider that a wash.

 

and Villanueva doesn't meet his projection of being league average, and Schierholtz doesn't meet his projection of being league average, and Hairston doesn't meet his projection of being league average,

 

The only guy out of those three that ZIPS projects a league-average performance from is Schierholtz, and that's because he's getting platoon-protected.

 

and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Feldman

 

That seems like the most likely scenario.

 

and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Baker, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from DeJesus, and we don't extend or get any MLB value in trade from Marmol

 

All seems pretty likely to me.

 

, and a prospect like Jackson, Vitters, or Lake don't take hold of an MLB spot,

 

Seems pretty likely. Jackson's the only one I'd give better than a 20% chance of becoming a big-leaguer this season.

 

and neither of Castro or Rizzo break out, we might be worse off in October 2013 than October 2012. Cool.

 

You're doing a very good job of listing things that might go right (but probably won't for most of them). You've ignored that things can also go wrong, beyond just their ability to not go right.

 

What if Samardzija isn't as good as his FIP last year?

What if Rizzo takes a step back?

What if Soriano's legs finally give out?

What if Castillo can't really hit in the majors full-time?

What if Fujikawa is no good in the states?

What if Travis Wood can no longer straddle the fine line between being useful and being AAA fodder?

[XZero771679666304]

The odds of any one of those things breaking bad are pretty good. The odds of half of them going wrong are much less, and the odd of all or nearly all of them doing so it remote at best.

 

Unless you want to take superstitious [expletive] into account.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The odds of any one of those things breaking bad are pretty good. The odds of half of them going wrong are much less, and the odd of all or nearly all of them doing so it remote at best.

 

Unless you want to take superstitious [expletive] into account.

 

I'm saying that when you take into account the odds of all of the things, good or bad, combined, the probability of the post-2013 Cubs entering the offseason in at least slightly worse shape than the post-2012 Cubs is noticeable. Not even 50%, but likely enough to be in the conversation.

 

Long story short: We swapped Jackson for Garza, added a few mediocre guys who might be average if we play them in just the right role, and have a few interesting but severely flawed prospects on the horizon.

 

Fast-forward another year after that, and you've got guys like Baez and Soler knocking down the doors and things look a lot better. But 2014 could easily be a bit of a treading-water season unless we have some breakout performances in 2013.

[Guest]

Okay, the front office added three starting pitchers, some offensive role players, and are counting on pre-prime improvement from prospects and current regulars to help with the offense. There are also 3 pending FA SP. So if all three are gone after the year with absolutely no MLB value in return, and the role players don't add any value whatsoever, and the pre-prime improvement expected from upwards of half our starting lineup vanishes into thin air, we might be back where we started. This seems like a worthwhile mental exercise to me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Okay, the front office added three starting pitchers, some offensive role players, and are counting on pre-prime improvement from prospects and current regulars to help with the offense. There are also 3 pending FA SP. So if all three are gone after the year with absolutely no MLB value in return, and the role players don't add any value whatsoever, and the pre-prime improvement expected from upwards of half our starting lineup vanishes into thin air, we might be back where we started. This seems like a worthwhile mental exercise to me.

 

Well, I'm getting some amusement out of watching you do exactly what you claim to be frustrated by me doing, but otherwise, yeah, it's not getting anywhere.

[jersey cubs fan]

But 2014 could easily be a bit of a treading-water season unless we have some breakout performances in 2013.

 

Breaking development from the newsroom

[Brian]

when/if the Cubs win the World series Kyle will be typing up a post about how the next season is doomed and they won't be able to repeat before the first champagne cork is popped.

[Tracer Bullet]

Okay, the front office added three starting pitchers, some offensive role players, and are counting on pre-prime improvement from prospects and current regulars to help with the offense. There are also 3 pending FA SP. So if all three are gone after the year with absolutely no MLB value in return, and the role players don't add any value whatsoever, and the pre-prime improvement expected from upwards of half our starting lineup vanishes into thin air, we might be back where we started. This seems like a worthwhile mental exercise to me.

 

Well, I'm getting some amusement out of watching you do exactly what you claim to be frustrated by me doing, but otherwise, yeah, it's not getting anywhere.

 

You use "claim" as if you're really not [expletive] annoying.